Best Picture Title Cards

♪ Tradition.... TRADITION.
This is beautiful even if 65% of the movies were undeserving of the Best Picture of the Year title. [via]

We'll undoubtedly be adding The King's Speech to this tonight, though we know which movie* is really deserving. You can vote for it at the Best Picture chart.

*whichever you want it 2 B -- opinions are magic that way!

Oh My Link

Kenneth in the (212) spends an evening with Lisa Kudrow to discuss The Comeback. Jealous!
The Guardian wonderful piece on AMPAS membership. This had me in stitches

Now 72, Mother Dolores still retains her Academy membership and every year receives copies of the latest Oscar-nominated films from Ampas, thus making her the only fully ordained nun to adjudicate on the oeuvre of Quentin Tarantino.

Low Resolution Joe hands out his 2010 Movie Awards. Fun
Movie|Line Stu bravely predicts Annette Bening AND Jacki Weaver to win. My god, I'd be so happy... but doesn't he know about Oscar's ageism?

Scott Feinberg examines the pitches of nominated performances. All the Oscar narratives have been done before.
The Fug Girls fall hard for Brenda Song (of The Social Network)
Hero Complex James McAvoy talks about the bromance between Magneto and Professor X in X-Men First Class
Movie Morlocks revisits Vincente Minnelli's On A Clear Day You Can See Forever with Barbra Streisand. Did you know that it lost 60 minutes on the cutting room floor?
In Contention the foreign film oscar category still isn't fixed.

Finally, have you been following Movie|Line's Oscar index? They've now added time lapse animation to their charts and it's strangely hypnotic (and mnemonic) to watch the rise and fall of certain candidates. Here's one example, which is particularly instructive given the volatility: Best Supporting Actress. Watch the Black Swan pair jump in and out and up and down and note how at the last minute everyone is rising back up as it gets strangely competitive for so late in the game.

I guess this means they're predicting Hailee Steinfeld for the win but recognizing it as a very tight three-way race. Make it not be so Oscar gods. Make it not be so.

Calling the Splits

Serious Film's Michael C. here to ask an inconvenient question. As predictions are being finalized around the web it becomes clear that a large bloc, if not a majority, of pundits are predicting a picture/director split with The King’s Speech taking picture but David Fincher claiming the director trophy. 

No doubt there is some wishful thinking at play by those still stinging from The Social Network’s flame out at the guilds awards. “Okay, maybe those Philistine voters will deny Social Network the big prize but how could they bypass an established master like Fincher in favor of Tom What’s-His-Name?”

The King Speaks. (The king being Fincher. His movies do rule.

I don’t mean to throw cold water on a plausible scenario that I would much prefer to a Speech sweep, but the burning question is this: When has a picture/director split ever been predicted? The answer: No time I’m aware of.

Here are the 6 times in the last 30 years picture director split along with the expected winners going into the ceremony:

2005 - Crash/Ang Lee
Brokeback Mountain was widely favored to win both prizes. There was, to be fair, an inkling of a Crash win here and there, but the vast majority called it for Brokeback early on.

2002 - Chicago/Polanski
The conventional wisdom that the only thing preventing a Chicago sweep would be the urge to give Scorsese an overdue win for Gangs of New York. Instead we got a Polanski win predicted by exactly nobody.

2000 - Gladiator /Soderbergh
Pundits thought they saw a spilt coming this year as most predicted DGA winner Ang Lee to repeat at the Oscars but popular favorite Gladiator to take top honors. They were half right. Traffic’s Soderbergh blindsided Lee. 

1998 - Shakespeare in Love/ Spielberg
Do we need to go over this one again? Private Ryan was thought to be a lock for both prizes.

1989 – Driving Miss Daisy /Oliver Stone – The smart money was on Born on the Fourth of July to take Picture along with director. Miss Daisy pulled an upset.

1981 - Chariots of Fire/Beatty
If anyone was going to upset the epic Reds in the top category it was assumed to be box office hit On Golden Pond, not tiny, foreign Chariots of Fire.

And here are two more widely predicted splits that never happened:

2006 - Little Miss Sunshine or Babel /Scorsese
Many imagined that voters would be satisfied looking elsewhere for picture after finally giving Scorsese his due. Nope. They genuinely loved The Departed.

1995 - Apollo 13/Gibson
The prevailing mood was that DGA winner Apollo 13 would take picture and, since Howard missed a director nomination, the acting branch would carry Gibson to a directing trophy. Braveheart took them both.

Fincher supporters can take solace in the fact that splits appear to favor big name auteurs in the directing category, or that we're due for a split since they seem to occur about every five years. Other than that, history suggests either the most obvious of outcomes or a wild card that nobody sees coming.  

My knowledge of what was predicted gets hazy before the 80's. Is there some precedent for a Speech/Fincher split I'm missing? Let me know in the comments.

Polling You

Oscar Ballots are due extremely soon (today) at their final destination but YOU can still vote. The Oscar pages are fully updated and ready for the big night, save for your votes in the categories. We like to include a readers choice to go along with Nathaniel's votes (the film bitch awards) and the Oscars themselves. Some years they line up, some they don't. Vote! PIC, DIR, ACTOR, ACTRESS, SUPP ACTOR, SUPP ACTRESS. Polling ends Saturday. Enlists your friends and read all the silliness. Did you know that Mark Ruffalo has both the most fertile character and is the most fertile Supporting Actor with 3 kids? Did you know that Helena Bonham Carter (Supporting Actress) and Tim Burton are both Oscarless? Can you name two pairs of living director/actress lovematches that both have Oscars before reading them on the page? Did you know that Best Actress Michelle Williams helped launch a yoga for single moms program? For some reason, I can't picture Michelle doing yoga, there's something about her physical screen presence that's too compressed for stretching. And my imagination is usually so fierce with the actresses.

(Oscar madness will end soon and we'll pick back up some long awaited blog threads. Stay tuned.)

Supporting Actress (and Mothers & Sons)

It occurred to me when completing the Best Supporting Actress page -- now with "How'd they get nominated?" theorizing, Polls and Trivia -- that "The Wisdom of Crowds" might be in order for this category in terms of predictions. It's the only category that seems ripe for an upset, given both the nature of the category (the most frequently upsettable as it were) and the unfortunate turning of the tide against Melissa Leo. I say unfortunate because I think that Melissa Leo is absolute aces in The Fighter and far less deserving performances win Oscars every year! She'd be my personal winner in a year that didn't contain something as untoppable as Jacki Weaver's "Smurf" my first pencilled in candidate for Best of the Decade in 2020 when we pretend that the Oscars are only held once a decade.

So humor me by voting on this poll and explain yourself in the comments. Who IS going to win? Also make sure to vote on each of the categories for your "should win" on the Oscar pages

poll by twiigs.com

You know you want to.

It feels like a nailbiter as we just discussed on the podcast. I'm still leaning towards thinking that Leo is going to pull off the win, given that I think her competitors are probably too strong across the board to steal all the NOT LEO votes for themselves.

But while researching this category, I realized that if Bale and Leo both win for The Fighter, it'll be the first time since Holly Hunter & Anna Paquin in The Piano (1993) that actors playing immediate blood relatives have both won. But what of Mothers & Sons? It turns out there aren't very many of them that are ever nominated.

Ordinary People (1980) and My Left Foot (1989)

Past 50 Years of Mother & Son Oscar Combos - wins?
Melissa Leo and Christian Bale in The Fighter (2010) -we shall see
Julianne Moore and Ed Harris in The Hours (2002) -neither won
Toni Collette and Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense (1999) - neither won
Kate Nelligan & Nick Nolte in The Prince of Tides (1991) - neither won
Brenda Ficker and Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot (1989) -WINNERS!
Jessica Tandy and Dan Ackroyd in Driving Miss Daisy (1989) - only the mom
Mary Tyler Moore and Timothy Hutton in Ordinary People (1980) -only the son
Meryl Streep and Justin Henry in Kramer Vs. Kramer (1979) -only the mom
Gladys Cooper and Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady (1964) - only the son
Thelma Ritter and Burt Lancaster in The Bird Man of Alcatraz (1962) -neither won

I think I've accounted for all of them. Are you fond of these pairings? Do you think we'll have another (fictional) mother & son set on Sunday night?

p.s. the SUPPORTING ACTOR Page is also updated