10 Days 'til Nominations (127 Hours?)
Saturday, January 15, 2011 at 2:45PM The countdown is on...
Today's countdown topic: 127 Hours
It's been falling from punditry favor as fast as James Franco's 'Aron Ralston' dropped down that crevice. But he does that twice in the movie. Will he land in the pool of refreshing Oscar waters in 10 days (like the first drop) with nominations for Picture, Actor and a few techs. Or will this be like that second nastier drop where horrors await (Best Actor only)? I'm thinking it's going to hang on by its fingertips to the former on account of #1 votes; those who love it love it. But I've been wrong before.
How many nominations do you see coming?
FYI: I've added a prediction index for ease of use. See? I listen to y'all! That's why you need to keep commenting. Don't make me feel alone in this virtual world.
127 Hours, Oscars (10)
Reader Comments (22)
I have a screener and I'll watch it soon, even though I'm probably one of those pussies, like James's grandma would say, who will feel quite uncomfortable doing that.
but hey, i'll definitely try: I'll just pretend I dunno what's happening.
I think just one nomination for it is out of the question :) something might happen in the score/song department and it still has a shot at cinematography. And Globe, WGA, Scripter have recognized the writing (even though there are 1 or 2 spoilers prepared in that category, I'll admit).
The Town a Best Picture nominee... hard to believe it. not because it's bad, but because for me it will fall in the Blind Side, District 9 WTF category.
You still think Lesley Manville's gonna get in? I don't. I think (and hope) Michelle Williams will get the final spot.
I also hope for actor, Ryan Gosling gets Jeff Bridges' or Robert Duval's spot...I think that could happen, but it's more of a longshot than Michelle.
I also hope that for supporting actress, Jacki Weaver gets in, and not the child. -___-
Philip -- i'm not convinced that anyone is going to get the 5TH actress spot.
haha. maybe they'll only have 4 this year. Ha!
alex -- good point. but couldn't you see it doing a INTO THE WILD and having very little to show on Tuesday?
Your prediction index leave The Kids Are All Right off the best picture list, but when I click on "best picture" you still have Kids as one of your ten.
I know most people think it's out of the question now, because the competition is so tight, but I think, in addition to possible picture/actor/screenplay/cinematography/song mentions, Boyle still stands a chance under best director. My reasoning/precedents:
1) Best director is something of a crony category, with many former nominnees/winners getting return nominations
2) This has historically been a category where perceived financial failure has not caused well-reviewed films to be penalized, even ones that failed with the guilds (Vera Drake, United 93)
3) The challenge of making a film interesting while confined to a tight space may impress directors -- as it did when they nominated Hitchcock for both Lifeboat and Rear Window, and Teshigahara for Woman in the Dunes
Franco's a lock. I can imagine it getting a few technical nods as well. I still think it'll sneak in for Best Picture but Danny Boyle is a long shot at this point.
The Into the Wild comparison is very accurate. I agree that it'll slip away from anything other than Best Actor. I could see it pulling off a Best Song nod, though. Is that not a probable possibility, or are we just assuming that the Song branch members are still from another planet and Pure Country 2 takes its spot?
Call me crazy but I think Into the Wild would have gotten a Best Picture nomination in a year of ten, so I'm not sure if we can apply it to this year. As for this film, I think Adapted Screenplay and Actor nominations are assured, and Score and Song seem pretty likely. A few technicals also seem likely. I just saw it, and wow! What a movie! And James Franco definitely deserves that nomination. I'll have to see how it holds up if I see it again, because I felt the same when I first saw Slumdog Millionaire (I was carried away by the energy of that film) and repeat viewings haven't done that film many favors. But there were plenty of things that annoyed me about Slumdog the first time I saw it and not that many in this film, so I think it will definitely hold up.
I feel (I've been feeling for a while now) a Nathalie Portman's fatigue. She's not that great (neither is the movie). My ballot for Best Actress would go like this:
1-Annette Bening
2-Nicole Kidman
3-Jennifer Lawrence
4-Julianne Moore
5-Greta Gerwhig
p.s I haven't seen Blue Valentine yet (it opened yesterday in Montréal) but I will & it might change things a little
stjeans -- do you feel Portman fatigue yourself or do you believe it's out there?
Richter -- that's actually a good point. Into the Wild probably would have made it with 10. It did get an editing nom, right?
i'm still thinking 127 HOURS snags an editing nomination (besides being showy, keep in mind the similarly themed INTO THE WILD also made the cut for film editing).
and while THE TOWN could muscle its' way into Best Picture, if something manages to knock Boyle's film off the Best Picture list, i'm thinking it's actually gonna be one of the longshot contenders...
I was getting my hair cut today and always talk movies with my stylist. He kept prodding me to name my top film of the year, and I finally realized that while I've been pleasantly surprised and enjoyed all of the contenders this year (except one), 127 Hours stood out as my #1 of the year. The screenwriter and director took what could have been a very limiting storyline and made a great film. Franco was perfect -- he'd be my #2 vote this year after Firth. And the technical work was excellent across the board: editing, art direction, cinematography, score, sound effects. I guess it shouldn't get a nomination for costume design. Hopefully there are enough AMPAS members who feel like I do!
Also rooting for Jacki Weaver and the other bad mamas Melissa Leo and Barbara Hershey. That late scene in the grocery store still gives me the chills. I'd knock out Mila Kunis. While she was great, I just didn't think the role demanded much of her. And I'm on the no-go side of the Steinfeld-supporting debate.
What I don't get is the love for The Town. Thoroughly overrated. The storyline was ridiculous and I didn't think Renner was that noteworthy. Anything for this film on nomination Tuesday will irritate me.
I think James Franco is still a lock, but I would say even Debra Granik has a better shot at Director than Danny Boyle at this point.
I do think 127 Hours will get in over The Town, because of its PGA and WGA nominations. Wishful thinking, maybe. But I also don't think it will be an Into The Wild situation - because there are 10 slots now and because there is more heat and passion for the leading performance in this one (Franco is a lock, which Hirsch was never considered to be) and because of the general buzz surrounding James Franco right now, mostly due to his moderation.
BP
1) The Social Network
2) The King's Speech
3) Black Swan
4) Inception
5) The Fighter
6) True Grit
7) The Kids Are All Right
8) Toy Story 3
9) 127 Hours
10) Winter's Bone
...and I know The Town got in at WGA and PGA as well but it didn't get the SAG support it needed.
I just saw 127 hours, and I will be very dissapointed if the movie misses out. Aside from it dragging a little towards the end (Right beofe the scene), and i didn't really need to see all the scenes with the Ex which never amounted to anything., I really loved it. Whats james Franco did was nothing short of amazing, and I hope (but doubt) he wins the Oscar.
Anyway, I think it gets in over The Town (Which I also loved, but not as much), and I suspect its a lock for a best song Nom.
Thanks so much for the index!!
I believe that it will still get in. The Town loosened up its hype, and with Franco's sure nod, it will still get in.
My predictions:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
I still believe Manville will get the 5th spot.
The race for the 5th spot in BLAr is between Bridges, Gosling, and Wahlberg.
Ruffalo is more likely to get the 5th spot, but Hawkes still give a big threat.
Steinfeld is sure of the 5th spot, but I can still see Weaver stealing it, kicking Kunis out.
Russell is really vulnerable for the 5th spot. I still believe Boyle could get that.
The race this year is far more exciting than last year. :)
ΟΚ, anybody knows when the foreign shortlist will be announced ? Last year ,it was Jan.20.I have searched and I have searched...
PS : go Dogtooth
PS 2 : yes, I am Greek.
Homer - Oh, nice. So, it's Omiros?
Nintendo: I'm Greek too.
Homer -- as the web's foreign oscar expert i can't even tell you. But I do think it's stupid to narrow it down for the public just a couple days before the announcement. I mean. why even have two rounds if they're that close together?
I think Portman's fatigue might just be me but... is it?