Top Ten: Surprise Nominations
Tuesday, January 18, 2011 at 1:30PM Michael C. here from Serious Film for Tuesday Top Ten.
The great contradiction of awards season is that there is nothing spectators enjoy more than a surprise yet that doesn't stop anyone from doing everything but pick through the trash of Academy members looking for clues that might help in divining their choices. The truth is that film awards, like presidential elections or tomorrow's weather, are not all that difficult to predict once you know a few basics. That's what makes genuine shockers such a rare treat.
So, with the Golden Globe winners suggesting a year of easy calls across the board and the BAFTA nominees giving tiny flickers of hope to a few longshot candidates (particular in the actress categories), let's dive into past out-of-the-blue choices with the ten most surprising Oscar nominations and see if they hint at any rays of hope for this year's long shots.
Ten Most Surprising Recent Oscar Nominations
Michael Shannon (2008) Supporting Actor
People talk a lot about momentum and popular films having coattails when it comes to supporting performances. There is truth to this, but in the end sometimes it's better to simply give a killer performance. This was the case when those predicting Dev Patel would take this slot due to Slumdog fever turned out to be wrong and the nomination instead went to Michael Shannon's brief, explosive performance in Revolutionary Road. Social Network contenders Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake no doubt hope that their film's frontrunner status is enough to keep any dark horses from sprinting past them at the finish line.
Letters From Iwo Jima (2006) Picture
Part two of Clint Eastwood's WWII double feature (immediately following Flags of Our Fathers) got nominated despite subtitles, minimal precursor attention, and tiny box office. It took the slot universally expected to go to Dreamgirls proving that all the prerelease hype in the world can't land a Best Picture nomination if voters simply don't go for a film - a lesson Clint learned three years late with Invictus.
Ed Norton (1998) Lead Actor
In this awards race, SAG (the Screen Actors Guild) ignored Ed Norton's intense work in American History X for the more conventional choice of Joseph Fiennes in Shakespeare in Love. The switch on the Oscar ballot was undoubtedly an example of Norton doing well with Oscar's system of weighted ballots, with an extremely passionate fan base pushing him over the top of more widely seen choices. Actors like Tilda Swinton or Ryan Gosling with similarly strong supporters might find themselves the beneficiary of this system come the morning of the 25th.
Samantha Morton and Djimon Hounsou (2003) Lead Actress, Supporting Actor
In America was looking like a sentimental also-ran after neither of these actors landed SAG or Golden Globe nominations. Just goes to show that certain late bloomers can hit the Academy sweet spot without making much of a ripple in the early stages of awards season. Hopefully, that means contender's like Another Year's Lesley Manville have more of a shot than the odds suggest.
Troy (2004) Costumes
This entry could just as easily be The Village's Best Score nomination from the same year. It's to the credit of the Academy's smaller branches that they've shown a willingness to stray outside the frontrunners to pick out quality work in otherwise forgettable projects. Are there any standout elements from otherwise off-the-radar 2010 films that could pop up unexpectedly? The nicely realized costumes from Centurion spring to mind.
The Secret of Kells (2009) Best Animated Film
The nomination of this beautiful, obscure Irish animated fable is a strong reminder that when the voters actually watch all the eligible films in a category, the conventional wisdom falls by the wayside pretty quick. Imagine if actors could only vote for Best Actress if they could prove they've seen Blue Valentine, I Am Love and Another Year? I dream, I know. As far as eligible animated contenders this year, I've heard My Dog Tulip is incredibly moving and Idiots and Angels is a feature from beloved animator Bill Plympton, a guy who certainly has some fans in the animation branch. Look out for those two.
The Reader (2008) Picture
This shocker is going to have reverberations for years to come. When Stephen Daldry's sober drama side-swiped The Dark Knight out of its expected Best Picture nod the Academy panicked, expanding the Best Picture field to ensure that small independent films wouldn't lead them down the road to obsolescence. The only lesson to draw from this - Oscar voters still don't dig superheroes, especially when there's a film with Nazis available - doesn't exactly apply this year, although the snub has granted Christopher Nolan "overdue" status that can only help Inception.
Mike Leigh (2004) Director
The lone director slot has become something of an Oscar tradition over the years with the director's branch making sure to recognize deserving auteurs whose films are too out of the mainstream for the big prize. Examples range from David Lynch in '01 back to such icons as Akira Kurosawa in '85 and Fellini four separate times. I selected Mike Leigh because these lone directors are usually not that hard to spot - a couple of people, including Nathaniel right here, saw Almodovar coming in '02 - but nobody picked up on any buzz for Vera Drake outside Imelda Staunton. If voters heard how hard Blue Valentine's Derek Cianfrance fought for years to get his film made he might be the latest member of this very exclusive club.
Keisha Castle Hughes (2003) Lead Actress
Even if people generally agree that a category designation is false it still tends to stick. My guess is that most voters would rather go with the inaccurate classification than risk wasting their vote by swimming against the current. This wasn't the case in '03 when to everyone's amazement Oscar voters plucked this child actress's performance in Whale Rider out of the supporting category where it was nominated by SAG and promoted it to the big leagues. The parallel to 2010 is all too obvious so I will merely say that the leading ladies should watch their back for a precocious 14-year old armed with her father's revolver and the Coen brothers' dialogue.
City of God (2003) Director, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography
These four out-of-nowhere nominations for Fernando Meirelles's Brazilian crime epic are the kind that give hope to followers of the gaudy circus that is Oscar season. They suggest that voters will not only go out of their way to see small films of quality, but will remember them from early in the year and then ignore the frontrunners to vote for them in sufficient numbers to make a difference. It gives free rein to imagine your dark horse favorite isn't totally out of it. Maybe an out-of-the-blue Best Picture nod for I Am Love or Somewhere this year? I wouldn't bet on it, but look at those four nominations again before you tell me it's impossible.
List-Mania, Oscar Trivia, Oscars (10), Tues Top Ten
Reader Comments (34)
How about Pedro Almodovar for Best Director?
There's always one big surprise in the Costume Design category. Like last year, with "Bright Star" (although that should in no way have been a surprise). What will it be this year? I wouldn't be surprised to see "Agora" show up. There was indeed a lot of costuming going on there.
*small voice*I really love the score to "The Village."*small voice*
Cristiahn -- he mentioned that in the MIKE LEIGH section. it's true i did predict that one. One of my finer moments.
Liz -- i think a lot ofpeople do like THE VILLAGE score. I remember people being pleasantly surprised rather than angry.
i'm glad CITY OF GOD was #1 to this day i'm shocked by that and it does make me wonder why we don't see more shockeroos of that magnitude. If it was possible then...
Yeah, it’ll be hard to beat CITY OF GOD in terms of truly shocking nominations.
I’d also ad…
- Toni Collette (THE SIXTH SENSE)—who had zero precursor noms
- Vilos Zsigmond (THE BLACK DAHLIA)—who transcended the film’s poor reviews and scored a nom for cinematography over BABEL, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA and DREAMGIRLS
- Maggie Gyllenhaal (CRAZY HEART)—yes, I know Nathaniel predicted her and all but I was still genuinely surprised
- Samantha Morton (IN AMERICA)—although that was a true wild-card year for the lead actress category
- Pedro Almodovar (TALK TO HER)—still can't believe Nathaniel foresaw this; one of the most richly deserved directing nominations EVER
KEISHA CASTLE-HUGHES!!!!! I can't tell you how thrilled I was when she was nominated, our whole country was, although completely suprised. The fact that she was even considered in Supporting is beyond me though.
And I don't mean to name-drop, but she actually went to my school for a hile, and although I never actually really to her, I still feel kinda proud lol. I don't know whether she took film studies or not, but we actually studied Whale Rider that year, so it would have been pretty awkward for her.
Anyway, I would add laura Linney to that list, since she got basically no precursor attention (not even a GG for best comedy??? what were they thinking).
If there were any flat out suprises this year I would predict Debra Granik, Noomi Rapace, or Matt Damon would be the lucky ones (well I think Granik is more than deserving, but thats another story).
most likely to surprise on jan. 25:
Michael Douglas, "Solitary Man"
Barbara Hershey, "Black Swan"
Debra Granik, "Winter's Bone" (directing)
Tilda Swinton, "I Am Love"
David Michod, "Animal Kingdom (original screenplay)
City of God really was the biggest shocker ever. I hadn't even heard of it to be perfectly honest. Generally in 2003, the Academy really upped their game. City of God, Keisha Castle-Hughes, Samantha Morton, Djimon Hounsou, Shohreh Aghdashloo, Johnny Depp for Pirates, Dirty Pretty Things and The Barbarian Invasions for screenplay...they really were paying attention that year...if only they had axed Seabiscuit from best picture (WTF!?!? was up with that????) and substituted ANYTHING in its place, it would have been a near-perfect year.
what about Kate Winslet's category switcheroo?
butbutbut Hailee Steinfeld doesn't deserve to be nominated in EITHER category.
I was not a fan of Secret of Kells. Yes it was pretty to look at, but I didn't think the story was any better than what you can watch any saturday morning on Nickelodeon.
My favorite ever surpirse nominee was Atom Egoyans 2 noms for The Sweet Hereafter. Well deserved too.
Yes, I'd jump on with whoever mentioned Toni Collette's Sixth Sense nom....loved that.
I know Keisha was really good in Whale Rider, but I'm still very bitter about it because I love everything about Thirteen and Evan Rachel Wood was snubbed despite being a revelation and having both GG and SAG noms. Gr. Don't even get me started.
I hope there's a (pleasant) surprise or two on Jan. 25th.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Laura Linney for The Savages.
what about Marcia Gay Harden. That was a surprise, and she won!
That Tommy Lee Jones nomination for In the Valley of Elah was quite the shocker. He was a potential spoiler for supporting actor in no country, but I had completely forgotten In the Valley of Elah even existed until that surprise nomination
Clint Eastwood, Best Actor for Million Dollar Baby
Tommy Lee Jones, Best Actor for In the Valley of Elah
Ethan Hawke, Best Supporting Actor for Training Day (though he did manage to snag a SAG nod)
The score from THE VILLAGE is more valuable than its script and its performances? PUH-LEAAAZE.
This is off-topic, I suppose, but I just finished watching Winter's Bone (and The Kids are Alright). While I did like TKAA and the actresses AND especially Mark Ruffalo, I don't understand all the love for Jennifer Lawrence. She barely does anything for me. There are times when you see her thinking "OH MY GOD how am I going to take care of my family" in certain situations, but otherwise it's an unimpressive if sufficient performance. Plus, the film's people need to speak up...They keep almost whispering =.=. Lastly, Winter's Bone is a good movie and I think the best parts of it are the supporting actors. That's all.
You want a shocker? Paul Giamatti.
I remember Nathaniel trumpeting Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road ALL YEAR and I didn't get where he was getting that prediction from given the lack of precursor support. And then I saw the movie.
Still didn't believe he would get nominated, but Nathaniel kept with it. It was the one unchangeable constant.
And then, like a week before nominations came out, Nathaniel finally gave up the ghost on Michael Shannon, admitting that it probably wasn't going to happen. And I thought, "Good for him. His score will be better for it."
And then on nomination morning, Michael Shannon is the last name announced in the supporting category (to a loud "WOO!")...
I guess the moral is to go with your gut. Or, if I'm remembering this whole episode incorrectly and Nathaniel DID wind up predicting Michael Shannon, then I suppose the moral is not to drink so much before you comment on a respected awards blog.
Like a Beatrice-Straight-in-Network sort of déjà vu, I keep feeling like Rooney Mara will come out of nowhere to grab one of the supporting actrees spots. She has that terrific opening scene, an equally impressive follow-up, then haunts the main character (and movie) as evidenced by that killer closing scene. Just a hunch.
I don't know if it's because I called its nomination but I still don't see THE READER nomination for Picture as a surprise. And then there's the fact I actually LIKE the reader more than four of the five nominations, so yeah - there. I think that was the nomination that made me happiest that year. Okay, I think I'll shut up now before the stones start flying.
(Kudos on mentioning TROY, though, I've always appreciated when the smaller branches ignore the hubbub and give the unpopular for deserving films love. Strangely, I've noticed that of the artistic categories Costume is more likely to reward an unpopular film than art direction which sucks, because so many "big" films ending up sidling in there over lesser, better films. I still bemoan that BRIGHT STAR snub there. Ugh.)
I still have no idea how you do it, Nat. Correctly predicting Laura Linney for The Savages and Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart when they had zero traction.
Agustin, many people (including me) predicted the Winslet/lead switch for "The Reader" so it's not much of a surprise. *horn trumpeted*
I still remember those nominations for "City of God" being read out quite vividly. I'd seen the film and loved it, but as they were reading "Bráulio Mantovani" i distinctly remember thinking "who's that?" and then reading out "City of God" and basically jumping up out of my seat. And then I actually screamed at Fernando Meirelles' name. Screamed. Amazing stuff.
Lucky -- yeah, i'm proud of both of those predictions ... but my first claim to fame ever was seeing Marcia Gay Harden and Ed Harris coming for Pollock despite the lack of precursors. It was the first time I had lived in NYC and I was going to the "one week qualifiers" for the first time and I thought -- there is no way they're ignoring these performances.
but i have biffed it sometimes too despite having hunches. I gave up on both Michael Shannon (as Nick recalls) and William Hurt in A History of Violence like RIGHT BEFORE the nominations and in both cases my longstanding hunch was correct.
boo me.
any hunches now?
I think Roman Polanski and The Ghost Writer may shock on nomination day.
Nathaniel, same question as Lucky - any hunches now? Hopefully a surprise Steinfeld snub? Can Gosling/Williams sneak in?
The one which I really remember as a shocker was Alan Arkin in "Little Miss Sunshine." I didn't think he deserved even a nomination...and he got one, and got the Oscar as well.
Eh. Arkin was a career nom/win. If they really wanted to go there, though, it should have been 9 years previous (for Grosse Pointe Blank which takes ALL of my acting categories, yet not Picture (LA Confidential), Director (Tarantino) or either screenplay (Tarantino (Adapted) and Sokurov (Original)). A warm breezy comedic thriller.)
From recent years, how about 2006's Leonardo DiCaprio in "Blood Diamond" instead of "The Departed." And Djimon Hounsou for that matter in the same film. He's on this list TWICE.
2005 Best Actor was also mildly shocking, with Terence Howard getting in for "Hustle & Flow" instead of Supporting Actor with "Crash."
I think I've mentioned this one before, but Jennifer Tilly's Supporting Actress nom in 1994 for "Bullets Over Broadway" is one of the better surprises in the last two decades. Zero precursor support, an actress that wasn't "due," and competition from Sally Field and Robin Wright-Penn in frontrunner "Forest Gump." Impressive.
What adds to the surprise value of the City of God nominations is that it was eligible for a Best Foreign-Language Film nomination the year before but was completely passed over.
Well said! Great write-up.
What about "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp". Even more shocking when it won.