Oklahoma & Phoenix & The Supporting Actress Traffic Jam

The Artist, Albert Brooks, Michelle Williams and The Tree of Life's cinematography continue to assert dominance in the regional critics prizes as two more circles & societies weigh in. How long until we have 60 US critics organizations, one for each state plus a handful of redundant consolidating regional groups and another handful of national groups?

11 perfs by 9 women have divvied up Critics Supporting Actress prizes in North America

Meanwhile Supporting Actress --which is a real clusterf*** to predict with 6 women doing superbly in precursors and 2 more super lauded performances waiting eagerly for a miracle stumble from one of those 6 -- continues to be a total free for all among critics groups as I've illustrated with this map of the prizes thus far... so exciting! Would that more races would inspire this much healthy difference of opinion, art being subjective and all.

I've been discussing the Best Supporting Actress race with other pundits recently and I'm finding it amusing how "obvious" everyone claims it is despite no one agreeing on who is out front or who gets dumped. How then, can it be obvious? Even the statistics don't solve this equation as will be noted after the jump...

Erik Childress at Movies.com did a statistical break down a week back using the Chicago Film Critics Association as an unusual indicator (they don't get that much attention outside of Chicago) and 25 of 27 Supporting Actresses who did as well as Jessica Chastain, Octavia Spencer and Bérénice Bejo have been doing in precursors went on to be Oscar-nominated. From there it gets very inconclusive (numbers wise) and he thinks four other women are still totally in the race making this a 7 way race for the 5-wide shortlist.

"I'd probably be more comfortable with six... it's a lot of energy to deal with." 

Here is what he adds to that discussion by email printed with his permission of course:

Melissa McCarthy got BFCA, SAG and Chicago nods

Shailene Woodley got BFCA, Globes and Chicago nods.

Janet McTeer got SAG and Globes

Carey Mulligan got BFCA and Chicago

 

Here is who that puts them in league with:

 

McCarthy - Steinfeld (True Grit), Keener (Capote), Adams (Junebug)

3-for-3

 

Woodley - Weaver (Animal Kingdom), Moore (A Single Man), Connelly (A Beautiful Mind)

2-for-3 (*Connelly was nominated lead by the SAGs that year)

 

McTeer - Cruz (Nine), Latifah (Chicago), Bello (The Cooler)

2-for-3

 

Mulligan - Bello (A History of Violence), Harden (Mystic River), Streep (Adaptation)

2-for-3

 

This race is WIDE open.

And that still doesn't account for Vanessa Redgrave... who I am stubbornly holding on to for a few more days. Perhaps BAFTA will come through?

If you're just going by Statistics I wonder if it's Woodley who is dropping out... (Connelly doesn't really work as a comparison due to the basically lead role and SAG lead nomination) but then again... The Descendants is one of the strongest BP hopefuls so perhaps that's insane.

Oklahoma Film Critics Circle
Picture The Artist (top ten in descending order: Drive, The Descendants, Hugo, Shame, Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, Melancholia, The Tree of Life and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)
Director Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actress Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Actor George Clooney, The Descendants
Supporting Actress Octavia Spencer, The Help
Supporting Actor Albert Brooks, Drive
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball
Animated: The Adventures of Tintin
Documentary: Page One: Inside the New York Times 
Foreign Film: The Skin I Live In
First Feature: Sean Durkin, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Obviously Worst Film: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Not-So-Obviously Worst Film: The Hangover Part II
Guilty Pleasure: Fright Night

Ahhh, Fright Night. I keep forgetting that was this year. Colin Farrell was terrif. But doesn't some other group also do this "obviously" and "not so obviously" prize? Maybe they're sister organizations? Or share members?

Also as much as I love The Artist, I'm a bit disappointed they didn't go with Drive because of variety of critical opinions is the only reason to have a variety of film critics awards.

Phoenix Film Critics Society
Picture The Artist (rest of top ten in alpha order: The Descendants, Drive, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, My Week With Marilyn, Super 8, and The Tree of Life)
Director Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Actress Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Actor Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Supporting Actress Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Supporting Actor Albert Brooks, Drive
Original Screenplay: The Artist
Adapted Screenplay: The Help
Ensemble: Super 8 
Animated: Rango
Documentary: Page One: Inside the New York Times 
Foreign Film: The Skin I Live In
Family Film The Muppets
Overlooked Film A Better Life
Original Song "Life's a Happy Song" The Muppets
Original Score The Artist
Cinematography The Tree of Life
Editing The Artist
Production Design Hugo
Costume Design The Artist
Visual Effects Hugo
Stunts Drive
Breakthrough On Camera Thomas Horn Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Breakthrough Behind Camera Michel Hazanavicius 
Best Performance by a Youth in Lead or Supporting, Male Thomas Horn
Best Performance by a Youth in Lead or Supporting, Female Saoirse Ronan, Hanna 

Extremely Loud seems to be following the "Nine" route. Opening super late and then pissing people off instead of delighting them.

Unfortunately the Phoenix Critics decided to do the shameless "We predicted the Oscars!" thing on their website since they went with The King's Speech last year when everyone else was joining The Social Network. Therefore it's hard to take them seriously. A) One should not brag about preferring TKS to TSN ;) and B) Obvious Broken Record Note We Will Keep Saying Until Critics Orgs Listen: It is the job of film critics to discuss films. It is not the job of film critics to predict the Oscars. If that's what ur doing with ur "Best Film" award, ur doin it wrong.

Also: How schizo is their top ten? Did they each get to pick a movie without consulting the others?

Comments

[John T]

The Best Supporting Actress race is so much fun this year-it isn't even like last year where it was clearly a battle royale for the fifth slot-outside of Spencer, you could make a reasonable argument for the inclusion of the remaining six (I think Mulligan's run is over) either making it or not. It's exciting that this is the race, since I think Spencer has the actual trophy in the bag.

[John T]

And by that I mean I'm excited that this race is such a barnburner, because Spencer is going to steamroll through another relatively dull awards season (no judgment on Spencer-I haven't decided if she deserves the win yet, but the nomination is justified-but I can't stand steamroller years, and depending on what happens in the leading categories, this could be another one).

[Brady]

I have a weird premonition that Shailene Woodley is the Andrew Garfield of this year. Critically respected drama with a great lead performance that gets in and a great supporting performance by a relative newcomer who gets a couple precursors and gets snubbed in the end. It's possible, right?

[Ed]

* Spencer may be seen as a lock.
* Jessica Chastain would be a lock if she wasn't so good in so many movies of the same year, but I would rather put my money on her performance in The Tree of Life rather than in The Help's for some reason.
* Bérénice Bejo stars the movie of the year and she has all the precursor nominations, so I would call her an "uncertain lock"
* Shailene Woodley delivers a really good performance in The Descendants and since we may not have the breakthrough performance spot in the Best Actress shortlist, I can see her getting a nod
* Janet McTeer is brilliant in Albert Nobbs and since the Academy loved when Cate Blanchett played a Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There"...
* Vanessa Redgrave delivers the best acting performance of the year by an actress (my opinion), but the lack of precursor nods is scary... Are people going blind?
* Mulligan is dynamite, but Shame's Oscar buzz is all around Fassbender, which is very sad, because she's the movie's ecstasy in my opinion

The most interesting Oscar race of the year - nothing seems certain, everything is a question mark - and I'm loving the magic it brings to the "art of predicting the Oscars"

[Rax]

Brady: Well, like Garfield, Woodley already missed SAG.

However, she's got a huge advantage over him: a vagina. Oscar has no problem with nominating young actresses, but had that exact performance been given by a man he likely wouldn't have gotten any traction at all.

[Lola]

I really want Janet McTeer, Melissa McCarthy and Shailene Woodley to be nominated. So add that to the 'locks' of Bejo and Spencer and I hope that's it.

Chastain will get her shot another year for a singular strong role - let her keep her ambiguity.

[DJDeeJay]

Supporting Actress is interesting, but man, Supporting Actor is a bore. I though Brooks and Plummer would be in the lead (but I'm disappointing they're almost all going for Brooks), but almost no one else has won anything. Where's Oswalt? Pitt? Nolte? Branagh? Anyone from Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy? Yes, Jonah Hill and Armie Hammer have pulled off a few surprises (not that they deserve to), but otherwise it's been pretty boring. I just hope Plummer wins.

[Jonathon]

Calling Bejo, Chastain, McTeer, Spencer, and Woodley. I really don't want McCarthy nominated. Sorryyyy.

[Brooooooke]

The SA race is so exciting, have no idea who's going to win, I guess Spenser is the frontrunner, buts she's been far from dominant, it may become clearer after the SAGs, GGs, BFCAs but atm i'm loving it. Unfortunatly for me I haven't been able to see any of these perfs yet, aside from McCarthy...so have no wishes for the catagory yet, execpt to say, Bejo is absoluty gorgeous, and if her perf is worth it than I hope she gets the nom just so her career will get a boost and I can see more of her (don't judge me)

Redgrave should pick up a BAFTA so that may be a nice boost for her campaign.

[Tim B.]

I really want McCarthy to be nommed, but I have a strong feeling she will miss out. Gosh I miss the BSActress awards of the first half of the 90's. So much respect for hilarity.

[RyanSt]

yeah, Best Supporting Actress really is all over the place---particularly with Chastain's three performances each snagging a fair share of awards/nominations. I'm really worried about that vote split--especially if TAKE SHELTER is resonating with Oscar's acting branch.

however, i think Best Original Screenplay is gonna be THE toughest category to predict: aside from your locks (MIDNIGHT IN PARIS & THE ARTIST) you have literally 10+ films all with, more or less, the same chances of getting in.

[aa]

best supporting actresses by year
2002 Meryl Streep Adaptation.
2003 Shohreh Aghdashloo House of Sand and Fog
2004 Virginia Madsen Sideways
2005 Amy Adams Junebug
2006 Rinko Kikuchi Babel
2007 Amy Ryan Gone Baby Gone
2008 Marisa Tomei The Wrestler
2009 Mo'Nique Precious
2010 Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom
2011 shailene woodley the Descendants

[SoSueMe]

According to Jeffrey Wells, Olivia Colman's part n Tyrannosaur can flip-flop between lead and supporting...let's put her in the BSA category and give her the win.