Tuesday
Jan172012
Open Thread. Your Final Oscar Hunches?
Tuesday, January 17, 2012 at 7:01PM 
Talk amongst yourselves while I finish convalescing and screen Haywire (both simultaneously might not have been the wisest plan. But there's no time for a cold right now. Must do movies!) What's on your cinematic mind? I will will myself into top shape by tomorrow morning so we can continue with film bitch awardage, Streep Rank countdown, final Oscar predictions and such first thing tomorrow morning. One of those at least.
What are your final oscar predix hunches that might strike the rest of us as... uh... less probable? Have at it in the comments though if Oscar isn't on your mind surely something else cinematic is...
tagged Oscars (11), getting to know you
Oscars (11), getting to know you
Reader Comments (82)
Today because of non-film related reasons, I am quietly fuming and considering ways that, in this progressive university environment that I live in, there is an insidious Group Think that seems narrow-minded and appalling. In movie terms it is cycling around The Help. I actually didn't love the movie, but I found Viola's performance extraordinary, and I was entertained. But in the circles I live and work in, to say you like The Help is like saying you like Birth of a Nation. So today I am thinking about The Help, and I am secretly hoping that it wins a lot of Oscars. That said, I would like to think that I understand the social/cultural/cinematic critiques of the movie...
As for wild predictions, I think Michael Shannon is going to be nominated and that Leo is not.
I think both Tinker Tailor and Drive are going to break into the Oscar race in a semi big way. Both could very well secure Best Picture nominations with the latter possibly slipping in for best director. I also think Gary Oldman may finally break in and get his first nomination. But the british voting block is really going to have to get behind him. I would love to see an actual surprise or two nomination morning, but more importantly I'd like to see a surprise on actual Oscar night. This season has been remarkably boring... and as wonderfully made and charming as the Artist is, it lacks substance and doesn't stick with you. I'd love an upset. Actually The Help seems to be surging - could we see the first film since Driving Miss Daisy without a director nomination (cause Tate Taylor aint happening) win Best Picture. It certainly seems possible, though I'm not endorsing it.
I believe Corey Stoll will be nominated for Supporting Actor, along with Plummer, Branagh, Brooks and Hill. "Paris" may wind up with 7 nominations...Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Art Direction and Costume Design. Wouldn't that be great?
I'm really hoping Charlize Theron makes her way to the short list over Close or Swinton. I think her's is my favorite performance of the entire year.
And I really can't see Jonah Hill getting nominated. I feel like he's the "Andrew Garfileld" and "Mila Kunis" in the season. Yeah, he made the precursors, but do Academy members really wanna see "Academy Award nominee Jonah Hill" in trailers from now on? I think Viggo Mortensen might take his place.
Mortensen for Supporting Actor? The Tree of Life for director and Best Picture? And heck for Brad Pitt in that supporting actor race too? So many questions.
I'm intrigued by Kris Tapley's last column hinting at a possible shake up in the best actress category--in particular Kirsten Dunst being brought up a lot by academy members. Hmmm...
Still think Meryl and Brad will win.
I keep going back and forth on who will get the last spot in the Best Actor category. Clooney, Pitt, Dujardin, and Fassbender seem like sure things but I'm seriously having a hard time deciding who I think will be nominated with them. Leo's out (love the guy...but no), Gary Oldman's overdue, but I'm thinking Michael Shannon could slip in there. One blogger is predicting Owen Wilson but I can't see that happening, though it would be a great way to shake things up!
As for Best Actress, I feel like I'm the only one predicting Charlize Theron over Tilda, but I'm sticking to it. Maybe it's just wishful thinking because I love her so much (even more so after your interview).
P.S. - Did you know that NBC was offering the pilot for Smash for free on iTunes? I'm eagerly waiting for this download to finish!
My Oscar Predix Hunch : Cicely Tyson scores a Supporting Actress nomination for The Help.
Tyson could be this year's Maggie Gyllenhaal. Did anyone see that coming?
I'm really curious about the nominations, because this year's is one of the most interesting Oscar races of the last years, in my opinion. I still thinking that Moneyball has no Best Picture nod assured and that Drive, The Tree of Life or even Harry Potter 7: Part II can be part of the top 8 (believing that there will be 8 nominees)
Meryl Streep, Jean Dujardin, Clooney, Pitt, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Christopher Plummer, Albert Brooks, Shailene Woodley, Michelle Williams, Bérénice Bejo, Fassbender, Jessica Chastain and Branagh seem to be "locks" (or almost "locks") in their respective categories, but Mara, Swinton, Shannon, Glenn Close, DiCaprio, Gary Oldman, Andy Serkis, Janet McTeer, Ryan Gosling (for Drive) or Vanessa Redgrave are like beautiful promises and Chastain a true question mark ("For which performance will she be nominated?")
For some reason, I believe Glenn Close or Tilda Swinton won't be nominated (Mara will steal one of the spots), that Gosling may get a nod (the AMPAS may want to apologize him for THAT ATROCIOUS SNUB!), Chastain will get the nomination for The Tree of Life (and not for The Help) and that Vanessa Redgrave may have a last word in the Best Supporting Actress race (maybe, the best performance by an actress this year)
@Billy: I disagree. Cicely didn't have anywhere near enough to do in The Help and Spencer's had the nod in the bag since the film was in production. Add that to Chastain's scene stealing performance and there's no way any other cast member could sneak into the Supporting Actress race. Even if she had a few more scenes I don't think she'd be nominated because she's been nominated before. If that weren't the case I could see them giving her a nod the way they did Ruby Dee a few years back for American Gangster.
im thinking about kristens possibilities in entering hopefully though unlikely I would love to see her there, as for the documentaries this year the race is not looking interesting at all I think its kind of boring... I do hope Senna gets that double nom...And Im hoping for some surprise noms here and there like Melancholia sneaking in there somewhere or MMMM, I hope the Iron Lady gets shut out completely except for Meryl of course and Albert Nobbs I wouldnt mind seeing only Close and Mcteer nomd....hope Shame gets some academy love somewhere that is not fassbender or Mulligan because the movie is amazing maybe screenplay also hope Farghadi gets in
Nat, please take care of yourself! I've been sick for going on two weeks and I had to work every day of the first week. Finally took a break and still can't shake this in week 2.
My cinematic mind is filled with anticipation for A Separation which I'm finally going to see this week if I'm feeling better!
Not that it's very original, but I'm convinced that the Best Actress short list is going be: Davis-Theron-Streep-Swinton-Williams. I don't know why but I'm convinced Close is gonna fall off the list. And, despite de BFCA award to Davis, I'm also convinced that this one is FINALLY gonna be Meryl's 3rd Oscar. It's obviously overdue and has been creating momentum for the last few years, but what made me realise was the fact that so many people is show business says she's gonna win: I have been watching some of her last interviews and the comment is on everyone's mouth! And, despite all the mess every single year I've only gotten that feeling twice recently: with Winslet and Portman. And with we all knew those oscars were go home with them!
And my 'no guts, no glory' bet for the nominations... Alan Rickman for HP7 Part 2 (never gonna happen, but dreaming's free! LOL)
Hopefully Rooney Mara gets a nomination. My god does she deserve it for that performance. Please no Glenn Close, talk about oscar baiting, terrible movie
The film junkie, Leonardo is not out, he is loved by the academy, still think he gets a nomination.
Woody Harrelson.
Actress: I'ma say, Streep, Davis, Williams, Swinton and Mara (AMPAS loves a hot young thing and they won't ignore Swinton again)
Actor: Pitt, Clooney, Dujardin, Fassbender & Oldman (imagine if Gary missed out again, DiCaprio will have to wait)
Supp. Actress: Spencer, Chastain, McTeer, Bejo and Redgrave (nom goes to McTeer rather than Close, Redgrave sneaks in over Woodley *(covered their hot young thing breakout with Mara) and McCarthy (deserving, but not reality)
Supp. Actor: This category = Clusterfuck. Plummer, Brooks, Branagh, Nolte & Hill - Von Sydow won't make it, neither will Stoll (reward for that film in picture) and Mortensen is the only spoiler.
Picture: Descendants, Artist, Midnight in Paris, GWTDT (Sorry, re Social network), The Help, Hugo (War Horse = no)
Director: Payne, Hazanivicius, Allen, Scorcese and Fincher (sorry again)
Winners can come later, therefore Mara is the hot young surprise/debut, Redgrave is the shocker, Hill is the novelty factor and Oldman = Pat on back, we nominated him at last. Close misses out, sadly, but she'll be back and Swinton gets the apology for Julia/I am Love.
Morgainisqt, I hope you are right about actress. I have a feeling Rooney will get in and Close will not. That would be so great.
I'm still betting on Wiig for a spot in Best Actress. If it happens, I want $100 from everybody, and if it doesn't, I don't want anyone to ever mention it again.
I'm not a betting man, but I would love for you to be right Nick.
Is it weird to think Drive could break in to Best Picture. If a small core puts it in there #1 slot, it might come close. This is probably wishful thinking.
Also, the nominations come out on my BIRTHDAY!!!! So think of me everyone. I truly deserve it.
I'm guessing A Separation getting nominated in more than just Foreign Language. My hunch comes from its impressive IMDb and RottenTomato user ratings, both of which tops all other 2011 releases. Maybe it's also a crowd-pleaser in addition to being a critical-darling.
I'm also guessing Albert Brooks will be left out (a crime, I know). It seems like actors, for some reasons, are not responding to the performance.
Never - NEVER - bet against PSH.
The Ides of March is coming, and you Pitt fans better root for that screenplay nomination that will split Clooney's votes.
I wish Clooney had a chance in supporting for The Ides of March. He was flawless.
How great would it be, Clooney for directing, screenplay, actor and supporting actor!
ok, it won't happen, but the screenplay will get in, I think.
Bridesmaids gets picture, supp actress and original screenplay noms. Would love Wiig as actress - the performance has real range and subtlety in places - but who do you leave out?
Yay!
So every year I have this one wacky prediction I stick with and it becomes a reality. But this year I have no clue... I can't call it. Maybe a surprise number of nominations for Drive or more shockingly, Melancholia. Looks like The Artist will be treated well. Dunno...
I really have a feeling that Meryl will be nominated but not win. So good but in such a bad movie. I swear they used that same chunk of election-winning footage for over six different occasions.
It'll win for make-up.
Michael Shannon in for Lead Actor.
Glenn Close out for Lead Actress.
Carey Mulligan in for Supporting Shame.
Meryl will win her third.
Picture--The Artist, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, and The Descendants are locks. The Help is very likely. I'm thinking The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is possible due to the sudden guild love, but I don't know if it's a film people truly "love". The sudden surge of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Drive makes me think they might have a better shot than we would have thought. I'd bet on Tinker before Drive, but you never know. It would make my day if The Help was snubbed, but that is wishful thinking. I don't think The Tree of Life is happening, unfortunately, but I'd love to be proved wrong.
Actor--I really think BAFTA will lineup with Oscar: Clooney, Dujardin, Fassbender, Oldman, Pitt. DiCaprio is very possible, but I think he will miss. Michael Shannon would be a nice surprise but the Academy owes a huge debt to Gary Oldman, so it may be his time.
Actress--Davis, Streep, Williams, and Swinton are locks. I don't care what people say about Swinton being vulnerable--she is going to make it because the Academy has realized how foolish they were snubbing her for Julia and I Am Love...she has major indie/art house buzz around her and they'll want to honor her. Close is out, I'm afraid, and Mara and Dunst are ready to pounce. I don't know which one makes it though. I just don't see it happening for Charlize this year, even though she is very, very deserving.
Supporting Actor--I'm afraid this category will end up being a nightmare. The BAFTA lineup was depressing beyond words. I think the only sure locks are Plummer and Branagh, while Hill is (frighteningly) very likely. Where did that come from? It was not a challenging or particularly interesting performance. I'm worried for Brooks, considering he missed out on BAFTA and SAG when the former showed a lot of love for Drive (even a nom for Carey Mulligan?). I'd say he squeaks in and Corey Stoll is the WTF nomination on January 24...which is fine by me because I thought he was impeccable.
Supporting Actress--Spencer, Chastain (for The Help), and Bejo are locks. McCarthy is very likely but I have no idea who fills that last slot. Woodley is looking very vulnerable and I just can't see McTeer even though she has GG/SAG noms. Could we see a genuine, worthy surprise like Carey Mulligan for Shame or Vanessa? The category NEEDS some class, I'm sorry to say. I'm not particularly wowed by any of the sure things in this category.
Original Screenplay--There could be some real shockers in this category, and I'm currently predicting A Separation to get a surprise (and deserved) nomination here. Midnight in Paris is the frontrunner and The Artist is a lock. Beginners is very likely, and for the last one it's a tossup between 50/50 and Bridesmaids, but I will probably pick Bridesmaids due to the surprise nom from BAFTA and the good showing it's had at the guilds. I will scream if The Iron Lady shows up here. Would love Young Adult to make a splash here, but not likely.
Adapted Screenplay--I think it will be The Descendants, Moneyball, The Help, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and Hugo. Hugo is vulnerable, but I think the film will do very, very well with Academy and will find its way here. I think Tinker Tailor is a very likely spoiler here as well as Drive (if they love the film).
Director--Scorsese and Hazanavicius are locks and the frontrunners. Payne is very likely. I really do think Woody will make it here but I have no idea who takes that last slot. I'd hate for Fincher to make it here because he's done so much better work than this, but the DGA nod is very telling. I'm going to stand by Terrence Malick, but Nicholas Winding Refn is very, very possible. I will kick my tv if Tate Taylor is nominated here. Ugh.
My general prediction method, especially when it comes to the acting categories, is to only give myself a limited amount of wiggle room to stray from the lists among the SAG nominations and Dave Karger's predictions. This is presenting significant problems especially when I want to predict stuff like Demian Bichir or A Separation.
I have more of an Oscar question. Well, two of them,
1 - Has there ever been immediate family members nominated for the same category in the same year?
2 - What are the percentages for different countries in the acting categories?
I know I could look it up myself, but I'm a bit lazy and have a feeling someone here would know the answers without looking :)
Three improbable hunches:
1. Ben Kingsley gets in for Supporting Actor.
2. Jessica Chastain gets snubbed (due to vote splitting between her films, I would guess).
3. The wildest of all: A Separation gets nominated for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Foreign Language Film due to the same kind of out-of-nowhere support that got City of God 4 nominations in 2003.
Some of my oddball predictions:
Original Screenplay: Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation, Shame
Score: Adjustment Buraeu
Song: "Think You Can Wait," from Win Win
Editing: The Ides of March
For anyone reading this comment, I'm just letting you know ahead of time that it's of the "too long; didn't read" variety.
Picture: Expect a surprise or two in the lower tier (Bridesmaids? Drive? The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy?). For what it's worth, I think there'll be either seven or eight nominees
Director: If there's a surprise, it'll be Tate Taylor or Terrence Malick.
Actor: Tempting to throw in SAG nominee Bichir or Michael "Surprise Supporting Actor Nod" Shannon, but I don't think it'll happen. Gary Oldman's the best bet for a shocker nomination, but I still don't see it coming to fruition. In any case, DiCaprio's the most vulnerable here
Actress: same as the SAG lineup... but I honestly think Rooney Mara might sneak in over Tilda Swinton. Every year for the last ten years at least, an NBR winner in one of the acting categories or the Director winner gets snubbed by Oscar. Scorsese won't be excluded, nor will Clooney or Plummer. Woodley's not a lock by any means, but I'm guessing love for The Descendants helps her case. Simultaneously, it's hard to imagine that the Academy might nominate Dragon Tattoo, a worthwhile but arguably dysfunctional film, for Picture, only to snub Mara, the film's only superb and arguably only fully appropriate asset. Add those two together, and Rooney Mara might be an Oscar nominee next week.
I was gonna say Cicely Tyson too!
I think Michael Shannon is in too.
Close will not be nominated.
For actress, I honestly don't know. Meryl, Viola, and Michelle are locks for sure. Tilda is almost guaranteed. As for the fifth slot, Glenn, Rooney, and Tilda are the best bets, but I could see Kirsten sneaking in, and if we lived in an alternate universe, Kristen Wiig. I know I'm basically just spewing known facts, but honestly I don't know. I'm gonna go with Streep-Davis-Williams-Swinton-Close, though I want Charlize to get in over Glenn, and if Kirsten or Kristen got in, that'd be amazing.
In terms of winning, I think Viola has it.
For supporting actress, Octavia, Jessica, and Berenice are locks. I think the fourth spot will go too Melissa McCarthy. And the fifth slot goes to either Shailene Woodley, who missed out on SAG and BAFTA (the only reason I mention BAFTA is because it was such a weak category), or Janet McTeer, who's in a film that I feel the academy won't respond well to like they will with Bridesmaids or The Descendants.
Octavia has the Oscar in the bag.
For actor, unfortunately I think George will win :/. I think the fifth slot could go to Gary Oldman.
For supporting actor, I don't know. Such a messed up category. I wish Patton Oswalt was getting the attention Jonah Hill is; I just hope Jonah Hill misses out. All that matters is the fact that Christopher Plummer will win.
As for screenplay, not sure, but I think Bridesmaids will get nominated. And I think it could sneak into best picture too.
Two thoughts on BP:
The Ides of March is definitely a player. AMPAS lovvves political dramas. And they love Clooney. Add in a big year for Gosling and a strong supporting cast, and you have a contender.
I think Hugo is a likely nominee, but I don't think it as entrenched in the top 3 or top 5 as people think. AMPAS has a hard time sympathizing with child or teen protagonists (Hello, Potter). Scorcese Director nom is definitely in the cards, but I have the smallest of hunches that tells me that a Hugo BP nom is not written in stone.
So, I was on the Academy website, trying to understand the new BR nomination rules, and was surprised to read that in order for a film to be nominated it only has to appear on 5 percent of the ballots (which may contain no more than five films, ranked preferentially), not, as I've been hearing all season, that it has to have 5 percent of the first-place votes.
Nathaniel! Is this true? I'm so confused!
Big out-there hunch? We see 10 nominees. TTSS (hee-hee, tits) Drive, and Tree of Life all get in.
@thefilmjunkie - I never said Tyson instead of Spencer. It was just a thought.
Matt- If the Academy had reverted back to having 5 nominees, I'd agree with your hunch that Hugo isn't assured a Best Picture nomination. But it's hard to believe that it would miss out in a field of 6, 7, or 8 nominees.
Nathaniel, DO NOT underestimate The Hoffman.
If there's a supporting actor from Moneyball or Ides of March nominated, it's him. The man got him for Charlie Wilson's War and Doubt, for God's sake, and all he did there was screaming and looking angry, which was basically what he did this year in his two movies.
I say Philip Seymour Hoffman rounds up the Sup. Actor category, alongisde Plummer, Branagh, Brooks and Hill.
Current Predictions...
PICTURE: Artist/ Descendants/ Hugo/ Help/ Midnight/ Tree of Life/ War Horse/ Moneyball
Potential Shocker: EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE—highly divisive yes, but so was “The Reader”. They love Daldry and a lot of voters may really respond to it. The #1 balloting system gives it a shot.
DIRECTING: Hazanavicius/ Scorsese/ Payne/ Malick/ Allen
Potential Shocker: “A Separation”’s FARHADI who would have a better shot if Malick weren’t also in the mix
ACTOR: Clooney/ DuJardin/ Pitt/ Fassy/ DiCaprio
Potential Shocker: WOODY HARRELSON-I know the buzz has shifted to Shannon/Oldman but his peers seem to love him, he’s excellent in a baity role and (front cover) FYC ads have been plentiful in the last few weeks.
ACTRESS: Streep/ Davis/ Williams/ Close/ Swinton
Potential Shocker: ROONEY MARA (and, to a lesser extent, WIIG) but I doubt it
SUPP ACTOR: Plummer/ Branagh/ Brooks/ Nolte/ Hill
Potential Shocker: MAX VON SYDOW because he’s a highlight for many, been getting good FYC ads and fits the ‘requirements’ of this category like a glove
SUPP. ACTRESS: Spencer/ Bejo/ McTeer/ Chastain/ McCarthy
Potential Shocker: VANESSA REDGRAVE because she’s puts everyone else to shame. But even BAFTA ignored here…
A. SCREENPLAY: Descendants/ Moneyball/ Help/ Hugo/ Tinker
Potential Shocker: “TALK ABOUT KEVIN” because the book is so acclaimed and the indie writer/director angle + nomed actor seems to give a big boost here
O. SCREENPLAY: Midnight/ Artist/ Separation/ Bridesmaids/ Beginners/
Potential Shocker: oh so, SO many. Also think people are underestimating RANGO. This category is so fucking crowded. I’m gonna be so damn impressed with who ever calls it 5/5.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Tree of Life/ Hugo/ Artist/ War Horse/ Harry Potter
Potential Shocker: TINKER TAILOR, especially if there’s an abundance of “Let the Right One In” fans in this branch
SCORE: Artist/ War Horse/ Dragon Tattoo/ Tintin/ Skin I Live In
Potential Shocker: TINKER TAILOR despite his far superior work on Almodovar’s film
For the rest of the categories:
I don't see many surprised happening.
Actor is between Leo and Oldman, I say Oldman gets the boot another time (Leo was nominated for Blood Diamond, people! They'll nominate him for reading a dictionary! He probably was #6 last year for Shutter Island!). Michael Shannon could surprise, but given he's in a critical darling this time (Take Shelter) and not in a movie EVERY AMPAS member would see because of Kate and Leo (Revolutionary Road), I'd say he's out.
Actress is all locked. I am trying not to believe Rooney Mara will steal Close's spot but that could happen. But Kirsten Dunst? No way. I'd love for Charlize to appear but Young Adult seems to have had a very cold reception, right? A month ago no one doubted she'd be nominated but the buzz is now gone.
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, Berenice Bejo and Jessica Chastain (she's in; people have finally decided that she's going to be nom'ned for The Help) are locks. Melissa McCarthy will be nominated. The 5th is McTeer, but just barely. Shailene, like Mila Kunis, is the spoiler.
I agree with people predicting Fincher and 'Dragon Tattoo'. That seems about right.
I believe in 6 BP nominees: Hugo, Artist, Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Help. The Tree of Life is my #7 but its buzz seems gone except from Lubezki's win.
Director: Hazanavicius, Scorcese, Payne, Allen, Fincher. If Spielberg HAS to get in, then Allen is out, not Fincher. Or even Payne. I don't believe The Descendants will fare that well with the Academy.
I say: Close, Mc Carthey & Theron get snub...'cause the one I root for ALWAYS get snubbed!
I say: Leo, Rooney & Spencer are in...'cause the one I don't care for ALWAYS get in!
At lest we ALWAYS get Meryl...Thank God for her!
If there's one thing I am hoping for is to have a couple of shockers in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories. I truly cannot understand the fuss over Melissa McCarthy! Her performance is one-dimensional, vulgar and loud. It's not Melissa's "achievement" to make it credible, since there is no contradiction in the character that you have to work to believe. What you see is what there is!
And Jonah Hill? Come on!
They are both good, but no Jean Hagen or Cuba Gooding Jr. there!
So please Vanessa R, Shailene W, Ben K or P S Hoffman... please, edge them out!
What I would LIKE to see happen: noms for Michael Shannon, Kirsten Dunst, Vanessa Redgrave, Bruce Greenwood (Meeks), and some of the supporting Tinker Taylor cast; wins for Christopher Plummer and Viola Davis.
I also wish Original Screenplay was packed with more unusual choices like Beginners, Take Shelter, Weekend, Margin Call, Meek's Cutoff, Marcy Marlene, etc. but I think I'd have a better chance with my hopes for Adapted - Jane Eyre and Tinker Tailor.
I'd like to see The Mill and the Cross show up somewhere in the technical noms.
And I would LOVE to see a woman director nominated. Some of the proposals in that category are not really that strong I think. But the one thought that keeps popping unbidden into my mind is that Malick is going to win Best Director this year.
But I'd be relatively happy to not have many of my not so probable hopes come to pass, if only, if only, the (unnamed) ones that I just can't stand don't get in. I know that's mean-spirited, so I'll try to work on that.
Patton Oswalt for Supporting
Demian Bichir for Lead
Drive gets shut out completely
Stephen Daldry for Directing, for almost no reason other than that he's Stephen Daldry
The Ides of March sneaks into Best Picture
Brad Pitt scores double nods, Lead for Moneyball and Supporting for Tree of Life
I know this season has been fairly predictable, but that's just concerning the winners.
I think we're in for a couple of really eye-opening surprises when the nominations come out, even if the winners will still be a foregone conclusion.
Lars von Trier for Best Director. That's my big whoa predication ala Fernando Meirelles, ya know?
I'm begging for recognition for Drive and Melancholia. Directing? Cinematography? Art Direction? Gosling, Dunst and Gainsbourg!? Some of the best achievements in film this season and they really should be recognized.
It's a matter of possibilities in filling the Streep-Williams-Davis trifecta. The winner will be one of those, but the last two nominations are of course an honor. It's either Close, Swinton, Mara or Theron. Sorry Pariah, Jane Eyre, and Olsen; this year is just too hard for great starlet performances such as yours. And Wiig? Doubtful. This is the Oscars, not the Emmys. However, there's no stopping the frightening climb Jonah Hill has been making.
I truly am outraged that just because enough people and critics give wind to ordinary performances in prized films (McCartney, Woodley...) it classifies them as a top performance this season. Where is Foster and Winslet and Carnage altogether? Marion
Cottilard for Midnight? Tomei and Wood for Ides of March? Redgrave in Coriolanus? I just named six equally compelling and probably even more so than watching Melissa McCartney pooping into a sink. Not to say she didn't do that well, in fact she did it excellently, but I don't think it's Academy material. If Corey Stoll can get buzz for Midnight there is no excuse why any of these ladies should not.
Dear Oscar God, I'm on my knees asking for a Hill shutout, supporting surprises, a Gosling nomination, and altogether at least one nom for Melancholia.
This seasons race is so bland, can we please expect some pleasant unexpected nominees besides The Artist of The Helps Descendants With Hugo's Dragon Tatoo?
Sorry for ranting.
oh! I just tought of a very VERY wild (yet totally deserving) card: Katy Bates in Midnight in Paris!! (My personal favorite think about that movie...)
I agree 100% with RyanST predictions in directing and the acting categories, except for one name. I think it's going to be THAT boring and lazy (Leo, Close, Bejo, Hill). I'd love to be surprised, though.
The one I think is getting nominated is Shailene Woodley. I think everyone's underestimating her chances. She wouldn't be my pick (such a coaster nom) but she's in a Best Picture frontrunner and it's much more likely that this category will embrace someone young in a hot George Clooney film than someone like McCarthy, who is in a comedy that doesn't even try to disguise as a drama and is not even assured another nomination (hope that it happens, but I'll believe Bridesmaids getting a Best Original Screenplay nomination when I see it).
i really want to see at least one of a separation's cast get actng nomination they really deserve it
and i reay like my dear meryl to win her third( and really overdue) oscar