Tuesday
Jan172012
Open Thread. Your Final Oscar Hunches?
Tuesday, January 17, 2012 at 7:01PM 
Talk amongst yourselves while I finish convalescing and screen Haywire (both simultaneously might not have been the wisest plan. But there's no time for a cold right now. Must do movies!) What's on your cinematic mind? I will will myself into top shape by tomorrow morning so we can continue with film bitch awardage, Streep Rank countdown, final Oscar predictions and such first thing tomorrow morning. One of those at least.
What are your final oscar predix hunches that might strike the rest of us as... uh... less probable? Have at it in the comments though if Oscar isn't on your mind surely something else cinematic is...
tagged Oscars (11), getting to know you
Oscars (11), getting to know you
Reader Comments (82)
I think the Iranian director will get an Oscar nomination "best director". That movie was perfect! I mean even those who know nothing about Middle Eastern cultures enjoyed the movie. It's was flawless and so engaging!
I think people are overestimated Payne record with the Oscars. Yes, 3/4 of his films were nominated but everytime his films received less than expecting;
Election: No Best Actress nom even when Witherspoon won important prizes like the NSFC.
About Schmidt: No Screenplay even when won at the Golden Globes! And even, it was succesful at LAFCA.
Sideways: No Best Actor even when Giamatti was the second biggest winner of the critics rally that year.
I think Woodley will be snubbed. McCarthy made it, not only by the critics groups, even for the BAFTA. Also, "Bridesmaids" had an excellent run.
Jorge Rodrigues, Just with one difference: "Blood Diamond" was a bigger player this season. With a slam-dunk Best Supporting Actor nominee and other four nominations; it wasn't really surprising why they choose him in this role. With 10-field nominees "Blood Diamond" would have been nominated. And why are you sure he's 6th, for "Shutter Island"? The fil didn't received love this season, was ovelooked by the Oscars and he was even nominated by the Golden Globes? This 2010, his only nomination was for "Inception" at the Satellite Awards
My Predix:
Picture: The Artist / The Descendants / The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo / The Help / Midnight in Paris / Moneyball / Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Director: Hazanavicius / Scorsese / Payne / Allen / Fincher
Actor: The same lineup as BAFTA
Actress: I think Close's "Nasty Nobbs" will be snubbed. Davis / Mara / Streep / Swinton / Williams. Dunst is my surprise,
S. Actor: Branagh / Hill / Plummer are in. Brooks is shaky but I think he's in. The last spot is between Hoffman, Stoll -Impact for the film- and Broadbent. If Broadbent is nominated, Streep will win. Mortensen is dead -A Dangerous Method hasn't a real impact this season-, Nolte could be the new Robert Duvall and there isn't a big contender for TTSS
S. Actress: Bejo / Chastain / Spencer are locks. McCarthy has the bias against comedic performances, but her timing is perfect (EW cover, THR notes, EMMY surprise win, BAFTA nom). It's too good for being ignored. Finally I think McTeer is the fifth nominee. Only Redgrave could be a surprise...
Charlize!!!!!! Why other awards praise everyone but her? She is verry deserved it.
Hey Nat, do you think you'll manage to post your The Iron Lady Review before Oscar noms? I know, bad request since you are still convelescent and have lots of things to do, but I have been waiting for it sooo long and I'm sooo curious... =) Take your time, but please don't forget it! =)
Picture and Director - I think they will surprise us by actually liking DRIVE and Refn. Who does Refn replace? I think it may be a slight shocker (like Nolan last year) and, whilst DESCENDANTS gets all the other expected nominations, Payne will be snubbed.
Actor: I'm with Nat. Shannon gets in.
Actress: I'm hoping for a Laura Linney/Tommy Lee Jones shocker, and Elizabeth Olsen (who most have written off now, but was in the discussion earlier in the race) will make a last minute appearance in this category, instead of Glenn or Rooney.
Supporting Actress: who misses out amongst the 6? I'm betting on Bejo...
Supp. Actor: Oswalt or Hill? I change them about every second day (currently with Hill)
IMO if AMPAS members have seen Take Shelter then Michael Shannon is IN. He was brilliant. Am I alone in prefering Chastain to be nominated for TS than The Help? Hopefully Leo can win next year.
That 5th best actor spot will go to someone unlikely, maybe Gosling or Shannon or who know ? Carey Mulligan will sneak in for supporting actress at the expense of Woodley. Jonah Hill won't get a nomination.
No Guts No Glory Prediction:
ROSE BYRNE ---- BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ---- BRIDEMAIDS
I'd LOVE that!!!
My prediction: Melissa McCarthy doesn't make it because I would be too happy. Also Redgrave or Mulligan gets in, but not both of course.
I haven't any guesses this year, having not seen a thing, so I'll leave it to you experts (other than, if Plummer doesn't win, I'd be shocked. Supporting Actor is a catagory they like to use as an "honoring the career" award, and if ANYONE is overdue it's Plummer, not Streep (sorry) who has a string of excellent and unshowy performances behind him and has come on really strong in the last ten years.)
I did want to mention that Fassy is supposed to be on Letterman tonight (Wed), for those of you who have TV. (You know there are going to be some more penis jokes, right?)
I'm feeling refn.
It would be just so uber-delightful to see "Bridesmaids" get a ton of traction where no one expected it to. I'd love a Best Pic nod for it. It really was a smart, clever comedy, the type we so rarely see. And Kristin Wiig was such a chameleon in the film! It reminded me so much of all the brilliant characters she is consistently Emmy-Nominated for on SNL. I'd LOVE to see her get in.
As for the rest of the Awards, it's pretty cool to see so many likely nominees in both supporting categories, eh? I could def. see Viggo getting in easily, AMPAS loves giving Cronenberg that one acting nomination every few years (without, sadly, acknowledging much else in his films). I have such a hard time imagining Jonah Effing Hill getting in. Didn't he do "Superbad" a few years ago? I guess I shouldn't hold that against him. As for actress, I just don't see Vanessa getting in, I just don't. Coriolanus is literally NEVER brought up. Anywhere. I totally see McTeer getting in, and McCarthy. It really helps to be supporting in a comedy like "Bridesmaids" and to have the amount of heat that McCarthy has from her tv show too.
I don't see Rooney making it in. The AMPAS loves loveable actresses in person, especially if their role was as droll as hers was. Plus, let's face it, it's kind of a role a ton of others could have done in their sleep. I think Glenn will make it in personally, even if it is at the expense of Charlize (which kills me, truly). While Glenn was good in the film, Charlize was literal perfection from start to finish. But, I have a feeling that the AMPAS voters will see something in "Albert Nobbs" no one else has really seen.
Should be fun :)
Janice also bonus points for Plummer actually giving a very good performance worthy of an Oscar, sometimes they don't hand out the career honour Oscar if the performance doesn't deserve it (like with Lauren Bacall and The Mirror Has Two Faces). Rose Byrne getting in over McCarthy would be amazing, she gave the better supporting performance in that movie.
I think the Oscars might follow the lead of the BAFTAs and sneak Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy in for costumes, score, and Lead Actor. The costumes tell the story and they're beautifully tailored suits that match the characters. Why wouldn't the young rising star wear a flashier suit with big pops of color to the office while his main mentor sticks to dark traditional wear? Plus, the timelines are defined by a change in glasses. Same shape, different color. It's a really nice and non-distracting visual cue for the structure of the film.
I also still think Charlize Theron and Patton Oswalt will get in for Young Adult. That might be the lack of sleep talking. I want it so bad, though. Cody is surely getting in for Original Screenplay.
The foreign film shortlist comes out today. I'm predicting Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Mexico, and Poland, but this seems too obvious and East Asia-deficient. Morocco and Austria are potential spoilers. I'm not buying Finland and question whether China can get in when compared to happier films that the general voters will prefer and more daring films that the Executive Committee will prefer.
My off-the-wall prediction would be that In Darkness is a surprise snub- they haven't been as WWII-friendly in recent years.
ChrisD...I'm with you! I want to see Michael Shannon nominated, and I want to see Jessica Chastain get nominated for "Take Shelter."
Evan...your list of nine sounds pretty good. I wonder, too, about Poland...there does seem to be a falloff in interest in Holocaust films lately. I have seen Morocco, and it's not really that great, so I don't expect it to make the longlist. I'd personally like to see the Peruvian entry, "Octubre," get onto the longlist. It's a very quirky indie-style comedy which I really enjoyed.
I really hope that "TTSS" gets a best picture nomination!
While I agree with many previous comments (no nom for Hill! please let Shannon sneak into Best Actor instead of Leo!), I have 2 other random thoughts:
1) So bummed "MMMM" isn't getting more love. Not only was Olsen fantastic, but so was John Hawkes and the screenplay.
2) I know it would never get nominated, but I'm bummed "Higher Ground" isn't even in the conversation. The actors were all great, but I'd especially love to see Joshua Leonard and Dagmara Dominczyk buzzed about for their respective Supporting categories.
Meryl for the WINS!!!!!
CONSIDER: ALLISON JANNEY
The longlist for the Foreign-language films has been posted on Oscars.org. The nine are:
Belgium "Bullhead"
Canada "Monsieur Lazhar"
Denmark "Superclasico"
Germany "Pina"
Iran "A Separation"
Israel "Footnote"
Morocco "Omar Killed Me"
Poland "In Darkness"
Taiwan "Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale"
That shows you how well I predict things. The big snub, for me, is "Declaration of War" from France going missing. Others will likely decry "Le Havre" being left off.
Have you read this GQ article on Michelle Williams?
She's so honest and awesome... And I love the bits about Heath Ledger. One can tell she still loves him.
http://www.gq.com/entertainment/movies-and-tv/201202/michelle-williams-gq-february-2012-cover-story-article?currentPage=1
Best Picture:
This is a hard category to predict because this year there is no definite number of slots available. It can be anywhere from five to ten nominees. So here are my predictions:
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. Midnight In Paris
6. The Tree Of Life
7. War Horse
The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight In Paris and The Help are shoe-ins. I think War Horse and The Tree Of Life are likely possibilities. And Moneyball, Bridesmaids, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, and Drive are also possible but probably unlikely. Like I said, because we don’t know the exact number of nominees, this category is a guessing game. But I predict those seven nominees.
Best Director:
1. Woody Allen- Midnight In Paris
2. Michel Hazanavicius- The Artist
3. Terrence Malick- The Tree Of Life
4. Alexander Payne- The Descendants
5. Martin Scorsese- Hugo
If there is a surprise I’m going to say Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive or Steven Spielberg for War Horse. And if either of these two are nominated Terrence Malick is out. Hazanavicius, Scorsese, Allen and Payne will be nominated 100% so three guys are fighting for the last spot and I think it will be Malick but I hope it’s Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive.
Best Actress:
1. Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs
2. Viola Davis- The Help
3. Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
4. Tilda Swinton- We Need To Talk About Kevin
5. Michelle Williams- My Week With Marilyn
These five nominees are 99.9% solid locks. If there is a surprise it will be Charlize Theron for Young Adult or Rooney Mara for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo. And if so Glenn Close is out. But I’m confident with these five.
Best Actor:
1. Demian Bichir- A Better Life
2. George Clooney- The Descendants
3. Jean Dujardin- The Artist
4. Ryan Gosling- Drive
5. Brad Pitt- Moneyball
This is a tricky category to predict too because two spots are up for grabs and every award ceremony has been different leading up to the Oscars. Clooney, Pitt and Dujardin are 100% shoe-ins. Michael Fassender probably will be nominated but I really don’t think he should be so I’m not going to add him to my prediction. Leonardo DiCaprio may be nominated too for J.Edgar but again his performance was weak in comparison to the others and the movie was nothing special either. The nominees will probably be Clooney, Dujardin, Pitt, DiCaprio and Fassender but I hope it’s the five I predicted.
Best Supporting Actor:
1. Kenneth Branagh- My Week With Marilyn
2. Albert Brooks- Drive
3. Jonah Hill- Moneyball
4. Christopher Plummer- Beginners
5. Nick Nolte- Warrior
These guys are 90% shoe-ins. If there is any surprise it will be Armie Hammer in J. Edgar or Viggo or Mortensen in A Dangerous Method or Patton Oswalt in Young Adult. If there is a surprise Jonah Hill or Nick Nolte will be out but I’m confident those five are your nominees.
Best Supporting Actress:
1. Berenice Bejo- The Artist
2. Jessica Chastain- The Help
3. Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
4. Janet McTeer- Albert Nobbs
5. Octavia Spencer- The Help
I’m pretty sure these are your five nominees but there is a good chance that Shailene Woodley will be nominated for The Descendants and if she is either Janet McTeer or Melissa McCarthy are out but if I had to choose I would say McTeer is more vulnerable. And if there is a BIG surprise Vanessa Redgrave will be nominated for Coriolanus. But I’m confident in my five. My dream nominee would be Andrea Riseborough for W.E. It was an AMAZING performance.
So now that we know the shortlisted foreign films, it's safe to guess that at least one of the more unusual ones will get nominated. I'll actually say that two do-- Pina, which is high-profile but probably needed the Executive Committee's help and Bullhead, which is low-profile and probably needed its help. The other three will be some combination of Iran, Canada, Israel, and Poland. Curious to see what happens...
I think the divisiveness in supporting actress (there are six extremely possible nominees--Spencer, Chastain, Bejo, McCarthy, Woodley, McTeer) will allow someone under the radar to sneak in. I would put money on either Carey Mulligan or Vanessa Redgrave, with the edge going to Mulligan because you know AMPAS were at least curious enough to watch Shame due to all the buzz and controversy. Has anyone actually watched Coriolanus? If people really did then I totally see them throwing a bone to one of their all-time greats.
Is McCarthy really getting in? Did AMPAS legitimately like Albert Nobbs? Did they think Woodley was that memorable in The Descendants? These are some legitimate questions I think, but yet, history proves that auto-pilot performances can coast to an Oscar nom without any real bumps (hello Penelope Cruz in Nine). I just have hard time seeing an actor--after having watched both Bridesmaids and Shame--cast a vote for McCarthy over Mulligan. It's just unfathomable to me. Regardless, I say due to the insane amount of buzz for her McCarthy sneaks in, bu I really don't know about McTeer or Woodley. Woodley reeks of Mila Kunis from last year and the non-existent buzz for Albert Nobbs makes me think that McTeer will miss out as well, leaving the room for someone unexpected to be nominated.
The person I'm hoping gets left out of supporting actress is Shailene Woodley, which could happen. Praying. But I also kinda feel that Janet McTeer will be left out.
My hunches:
You will chicken out on Refn. Fincher and Malick each have too much going for them, particularly the sorry-you-didn't-get-it-last-year factor for Fincher.
You will also continue to agonize over the Best Supporting Actor predictions...but ultimately, you will throw your hands up and leave it as it is, because those last two slots could pretty much go to anyone showcased there, except Andy Serkis (I like the idea, but you know that it's true). Maybe you restore Ben Kingsley from Vote Siphoner to outside shot. (Wasn't he in the top five just three weeks ago?)
Also, I think Leo gets the snub, not Fassy. (I also want to redeem an earlier prediction and put Oldman on the nominees list...but I can't. I just can't. Call the performance too subtle and not showy, or whatever, but he just didn't do enough.)
I think taht war Horse will be snubbed (it is not deserving of a best pic nom - 2 hours and a half of boredom). The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo may be last year's True Grit. I have a feeling that Michael Shannon will be nominated along with the 4 usual suspects. As somebody said i really want a Carey Mulligan/Vanessa Redgrave surprise. Supporting Actor will be one of the worst line-ups in the recent history. Best Actress will be an ok category - they can't top last year's line-up.
I'm rooting for surprise noms for Drive and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Dear Oscar Gods,
Please PLEASE please let Tilda and Charlize get in and Glenn Close and Rooney Mara sit on the sidelines. The two most deserving actresses of the year are Tilda and Charlize- they don't have silly career narratives, mediocre performances, $100 mil budget, Scott Rudin, or huge studios to back them up (yes Paramount is behind Young Adult but CLEARLY they dropped the ball on promoting that film and spent all their time and attention on Hugo... shame on them)... they give two of the best performances of the year without a doubt. I hope they are nominated. I don't even care who wins anymore, I just want my Tilda the Alien Queen and Charlize Goddess Theron to be nominated :)
3 actors who I would rather not see nominated: Leo (not his year although I love him dearly), Rooney Mara (forever Rapace... and she's not nearly as annoying as Mara is in interviews), and Janet McTeer (awful movie, mediocre performance)
3 actors I would be happier than happy to see nominated: Michael Shannon, Charlize Theron, and Albert Brooks
If Drive gets in for best picture, it might lessen the impact of some of the embarrassing choices that will inevitably come true Oscar nom morning. Here are my predictions for best actress and actor:
Best Actor
1) George Clooney
2) Brad Pitt
3) Michael Fassbender
4) Jean Dujardin
5) Gary Oldman
Best Actress
1) Michelle Williams
2) Meryl Streep
3) Viola Davis
4) Tilda Swinton
5) Charlize Theron
Lets hope the Academy goes by these predictions ;)
@KC "(...), I just want my Tilda the Alien Queen and Charlize Goddess Theron to be nominated :)"
Oh, me too!!!
But I think Ronney will get the 5th spot.
Streep-Williams-Davis-Swinton-Mara
I agre with everyone you finds the Jonah Hill traction perpelexing. He did a fine job with a very unchallenging role. If they really want to give a nom to someone with a comic persona than why they wouldn't go with Patton Oswalt who is fabulous in a complex role is beyond me.
I haven't seen all of the best actress contenders, but I have seen Elizabeth Olsen in MMMM and Kirsten Dunst in Melancholia, and I can't understand why they aren't bigger contenders? I'm hoping at least one of them and Charlize can sneak in. With the current field I hope Viola wins. I'm also hoping Melancholia gets a cinemotography nod, it is such a beautiful film. I also really want Jessica Chastain to get a nod for the Help, I haven't felt that way about seeing an acctor for the first time since Jude Law in Gattica.
I've been trying to see as many contenders as I can the last few years but I think that makes the award season more frustating because you're aware of how lazy/uninspired so many of the nominations are. Not that it will stop me next fall I'm sure :-)