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Thursday
Dec132012

The Annual GG + SAG ≠ Oscar Conundrum

We've learned time and time again that precursor awards are not infallible barometers of what is to come with Oscar. Each year some actor or two manages the magic combo of a Globe and SAG Nomination but doesn't quite make it to Oscar's shortlisting. Previous examples include Leonardo DiCaprio in J Edgar, Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin, Maria Bello in The Cooler, Russell Crowe in Cinderella Man, Mila Kunis in Black Swan and so on...

Who do you think will meet the same finish-line stumble fate this year? 

 

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Reader Comments (46)

Man am I nervous about Helen Mirren. Hopefully more the time between these nominations and Oscar nominations will give the voters time to actually watch the movies. No way someone who's actually seen Amour, Deep Blue Sea, The Impossible, Rust And Bone, Beasts Of The Southern Wild, and Hitchcock can pick Helen Mirren as the real standout among the Best Actress crowd, right? Right?!??!

December 13, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterTB

The Academy loves those Dames. One of them - Judi, Helen or Maggie will get in. Which one? I say Helen. For once it will be more difficult to see who makes the final 5.

December 13, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterPatryk

kidman out

December 13, 2012 | Unregistered Commentersolomon

If we follow the idea that Oscar's "best" = "most", it's possible that Helen is just too familiarly Helen, not "most" enough to be "best."

And I think Kidman has the uphill battle of the movie not being seen/admired enough.

But I'll bet that Bradley makes it in. People who like the film love him in it.

December 13, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

Please not Nicole. :(

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSad man

I think Bradley Cooper is on shaky ground.

Also, is Daniel Day Lewis not part of the poll because it's impossible (probably quite rightly) to imagine him snubbed?

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSteve

I think Nicole's victory is these out-of-the-blue GG and SAG nods. It's a knockout performance and she's very deserving of an Oscar nod, but I'm kind of shocked she managed a GG AND a SAG nom. The Globe nod I find less surprising since they're such starfuckers, but Nicole doesn't have a great track record with the SAG Awards, so I was really taken aback by that. I don't think she'll make the final cut, but she got much further than I expected her to.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

lol I love how Daniel Day-Lewis is not even part of this poll :D

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterChecko

No Bradley. Actor: Day-Lewis/Hawkes/Jackman/Phoenix/Washington. Still think Hopkins is #6, however increasingly shaky that still sounds, with Phoenix the weak link now. (I'm thinking Hunt's mostly-assured nomination helps Hawkes more than PSH's equally mostly-assured nomination helps Phoenix.) Also, with Riva falling short of precursor expectations, it will be enough to get herself nominated, so no Trintignant to be pulled up with her.

I don't know if it's No Naomi or No Marion (leaning towards No Naomi), but I don't see them both together showing up on the final list.

Everyone else listed up there I'm betting gets their Oscar nom.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJ.P.

How does the voting add up to 94%?

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJ.P.

My guess is that the other 8 names with "0%" actually add up to the missing 6%.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJulia

I really don't know...

I love Kidman, but I think I have to agree with Ropeofsilicon's quickly updated predictions that Oscar voters are more likely to pick Smith in Best Exotic than Kidman in The Paperboy, simply based on the movie.

For Best Actress the top 5 seems to be:

Chastain, Lawrence, Watts, Cotillard, Mirren

but I do think there will be 1 surprise (if not 2) on that list.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

I hope Nicole gets nominated she was great in that hacks hackneyed movie. I also hope you'll post your interview with her one day.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterTy

Nathaniel R.

for the record, I think you're being over the top dramatic with making the list excessively long.

yes, there is a small chance (1 to 5%) that some people won't get the nomination, but what are these names doing here, I shall never understand:

ANNE -Les Miz
DENZEL -Flight
HELEN - The Sessions
HUGH - Les Miz
JENNIFER -Silver Linings
JESSICA -Zero Dark
JOHN - The Sessions
SALLY - Lincoln
TOMMY -Lincoln

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

Jackman won't be nominated. Academy very rarely nominates men from musicals in the leading race. Mirren will be nominated as well as Arkin (his Globe nomination was somewhat unexpected - even despite his buzz - because they could have chosen bigger names: like DeNiro or Bardem - and they still chose Arkin!). Kidman might be replaced by Adams - but SAG nominations revealed that "The Master" is as shaky as "The Paperboy" - so everything is possible.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSomeone

The best bet to miss out would be Kidman given the reaction to the film itself, but I actually think she has momentum as well as a weak category. Much like DiCaprio last year, I think the likes of Mirren has gotten in to these categories as default before discussion of the film actually happened, but nobody seems to like her film or find anything about it particularly inspiring. At least Kidman inspires passion in people. Plus, Mirren's category is far more competitive.

Other SAG/GG nominees that missed at Oscar include Ziyi Zhang, Viggo Mortensen, Richard Gere...

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn

When Nicole Kidman got nominated for individual SAG Awards (The Hours and Rabbit Hole) in the past, it always translated into an Oscar nomination. If Janet McTeer managed to enter the final 5 last year with the GG and SAG nods, then Kidman can manage to do that. KIDMAN'S ODDS OF GETTING NOMINATED ARE MUCH HIGHER.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJosh

@Josh. That's what really surprise me about she getting the SAG individial nod. She's not a fav. of them, so her performance must left them shocked to nominate her.

@Nathaniel, this week could be even more amazing if you post your Kidman interview :D

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterLaura

I genuinely think out of the supporting actress nominees, Amy Adams is the most shaky. I know The Paperboy has some major detractors, but The Master is obviously not beloved by all either, given its (almost) no-show at the SAG awards. What Kidman has going for her is that people are going to start seeing her film, and her gutsy performance will definitely get people talking, even if they don't like the film as a whole. Amy Adams gives a subdued performance, and she spends much of her time in the background as an observer. I'm a fan of her performance, but it definitely doesnt have the "it" factor that Charlotte Bless has. So Nicole has that in her favor.

Frankly, I would nominate both over Maggie Smith, but the more I think about it, the more I think that the Academy will eat The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel up and nominate her. The film is definitely in their wheelhouse, with a respected cast that everyone loves.

As far as best actress, part of me feels like Helen Mirren will make it simply on her name recognition, just like she did for The Last Station. But another part of me feels like she is the Leonardo DiCaprio of this season--getting nominated simply by industry respect (possibly even "blind" voting), despite the quality of the film. Weisz, Wallis, and Riva are all strong possibilities to take her place.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

@Laura: Yes, the SAG rarely nominates her. So this one could really translate into something big.

@Aaron: I agree, Amy Adams is very shaky. The SAG omission could really affect her chances.

My lineup would be:
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJosh

Ty - ha! aother dig. I will try to get it up today. The Fates were working against me by putting literally everything into the same week PLUS the flu.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterNathaniel R

I love that there are so many 4 and 5 slot possibilities this year in every acting category! I really can't remember a year when at least 1 of the acting categories was pretty nailed down by now.

I think it's because the movies that we're not exactly sure how much the Academy likes - Beasts, The Master, Marigold, Django, Amour - have so many acting nomination possibilities.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSawyer

Glenn-Viggo Mortensen wouldn't qualify. He only received a Globe nod for A Dangerous Method, not a SAG nomination. His only other Globe nod was for Eastern Promises, which he also got an Oscar nomination for.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJohn T

Don't think the Actress category is sewn up as SAG/Globe may suggest with Chastain/Lawrence/Cotillard/Mirren/Watts. Think Wallis or Riva takes 1 - 2 of those spots. Feeling Cotillard as the shakiest of the GG+SAG

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterK

I think Helen is out and replaced by Emmanuelle, Rachel, Quevanwhatever, or some other unknown. Naomi is in, I think.

Nicole will still be a surprise if she's in, but the fact that SAG and Globes pretty much matched on supporting actress...I think Oscar voters will stick to the formula. Like everyone, I was surprised SAG kicked off her ascent, that was quite a shock.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterBia

Mirren out, maybe Jackman, maybe even Kidman. The rest are in.

LMAO, Cooper is a lock. Raves + NBR win + BFCA/GG/SAG nods + Best Picture nominee. The race for the last spot is between Jackman and Phoenix unless Hawkes somehow misses.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterMYS

I really think Mirren is out. I get the feeling these nominations were probably sent in just as Hitchcock was being released, and the reaction since the initial "OMG! A new movie is opening!" has not been positive. Plus, Wallis wasn't eligible for the SAG award and neither Beasts nor Amour is the kind of film the Globes were ever going to go for. I think Cotillard is also on the bubble, just because reaction to Rust and Bone seems to be mixed.

Please, God, let Hugh Jackman be nominated for Best Actor. Please. Bradley Cooper is probably the shakiest in Best Actor. I can see him being left out even if they fall hard for Silver Linings, simply because bigger stars/more serious actors are in the running

I'm thinking Kidman is in. These nominations are turning it into a must-see, and it's the kind of performance that demands you pay attention to it. Supporting tends to love scenery-chewers more than Lead, and even those who don't like the film have to admit that she's very good in it.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterdenny

what about a shock win this year i feel it in supporting actor and actress most..

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered Commentermark

Nicole Kidman may get in by virtue of being an ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE. That's the secret Cate Blanchett knows all too well.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

I think Helen Mirren will be Glenn Close this year.
Critics don't care her but big awards vote her to nominate.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterscary

I think Hugh Jackman isn't by any means guaranteed, but he stands a great chance of getting in. I know musical lead actors are not exactly their cuppa, but I remember Johnny Depp got in for Sweeney Todd when many people thought he would be out. So unless they loathe Les Miz, I think Jackman's in.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterGage Creed

/3rtful -- i don't know what you're trying to say

scary -- agreed that there is *some* equivalence but the difference is that Glenn Close had a great narrative as it had been her dream project for 30 years. I wonder if anyone thinks of Helen Mirren as anything other than an actress for hire on Hitchcock. still precursors have been kind so she might be an easy default get with vote splitting among the more "indie" options.

December 14, 2012 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

I know you don't see category fraud for Nicole in The Paperboy and since I haven't seen the movie I don't know how Supporting she actually is, but I get the sense she's actually a lead who is campaigning in Supporting because it's her best shot at being nominated. Sort of like Blanchett with 2 of 3 Supporting bids at the Oscars.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

If Kidman made it this far--I bet she's in.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterpoppy

Bradley Cooper is a lock. Stop being idiots, people! If anyone could miss it's Jackman. Even if Cooper's in a shaky spot, which I don't buy at all, his competition is Joaquin Phoenix in a film the Academy is NOT going to like. But no, because Cooper is the second most likely nominee in actor after DDL. This isn't a Joseph Fiennes situation. Cooper's reviews were in many cases just as good, if not better, than Lawrence's, and, well, to someone who loves the movie, I can't see how they wouldn't see Cooper as integral to its success.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterDevil Shark

Most people seem to be detracting from Bradley Cooper because he's, well, Bradley Cooper. But these people seem to be forgetting that there is OSCAR NOMINEE JONAH HILL, which is even more unbelievable.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterK

I voted for Mirren because of likelihood, but also wishful thinking.
The other person that's the most likely of missing out is Nicole, but I kinda see her getting in now.

In likelihood of getting snubbed:

1 - Helen Mirren
2 - Nicole Kidman
3 - Naomi Watts
4 - Marion Cotillard
5 - Bradley Cooper
6 - Hugh Jackman

The rest are in.

In terms of Bradley and Hugh, I actually think they will both get in in place of Joaquin Phoenix right now. They're pretty equal - both give an incredible performance, for Bradley it's in a BP nominee and for Hugh, even if the film wasn't as well-received as expected, he has a lot of built up good grace. Phoenix is in a film that clearly doesn't have much support and he made anti-Oscar remarks earlier on. Soo ... that's where I think the actor race is at right now.

I also think Marion and Naomi are pretty equal right now, but Marion is a bigger star and has a lot of good grace from her films over the past years since her win, and even being snubbed (Nine), so Marion is shaky but still less shaky than Naomi.

Best Actress right now:

1 - Lawrence
2 - Chastain (I'm thinking she will win right now)
3 - Cotillard
4 - Watts

The fifth slot is a battle between Wallis, Riva, and Weisz. They will have hardcore supporters, whereas Mirren won't, so I think she will miss out. The Leo|J.Edgar comparison is spot on. Wallis and Riva are fighting harder than Weisz because they will have more hardcore support, but Rachel's NYFCC win and Golden Globe nom help her a lot. Soo I really don't know.

It's fun to watch! As long as Mirren doesn't get in, I'll be happy.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip

I honestly wish it would be Jennifer Lawrence. I just saw SLP last night and I am in agreement with Rex Reed on this one. The film was okay....but, real mental illness is a bit more difficult then this half-hearted treatment of it...especially the "look how loud and crazy I am " Lawrence. I found her grating and lacking in chemistry with anyone else in the movie. I also fail to see how that over the top woman could possibly be good for Pat Jr.'s fragile psyche. Amy Adams would have done this role right and been a better age for it.

Jennifer Lawrence is the most overrated movie star working.
There I said it.

December 14, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterSam

Also, does anyone think it would be possible for Leo to win the Oscar? If he gets in, it's likely that he will be the only nominee that hasn't won before in that category, so maybe they'd choose to award him and the film that way? Idk, just a thought.

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip

I defintley think the SAG nom puts Kidman in a good spot. As many have said they dont usually nominate her so.. Do you think she could pull of the win?
I think Adams is on shaky ground and will have to fight for the 5th place. She's never gotten in at the Oscars when missing out on SAG.

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterLeigh

Look, many people thought Mirren would get it again like 2009 and, while there's still the possibility, I think it's more like Leo situation last year. In 2009, Mirren took the fifth spot easily because: 1. Last Station actually got good reviews and 2. Her nearest competition wasn't exactly inspired - Saoirse Ronan in a film with mixed reviews and Emily Blunt in a lukewarm romantic biopic of the first years of the Queen Victoria... Not many alternative options and the other stronger options -Aghdashloo, Cotillard, Cornish- didn't pull off to compete with her This year is different - We have more passionate supporters and more inspired choices -Wallis, Weisz, Riva- So, in this year she has more competition than 2009.

For Best Actor, maybe i'm nuts, but I think Cooper and Jackman could make it instead Phoenix. Phoenix is a polarizing figure and his performance, albeit excellent, was receiving a lot of criticism for being "too mechanic" -Check David Eldestein note- and I think "The Master" is having a bad time. It could received only three nominations: Hoffman, Cinematography and Score. Cooper have raves + NBR mention and Harvey and Jackman has the likelable factor + Deglam transformation. Jean Valjean is a more dramatic performance...

Finally, I believe Kidman is shaky, but each day is more likely... I didn't believe before, but the SAG in KIdman is a big deal, if she got only the GG, it wouldn't mean a lot -After all, they love her-, but the combo SAG + GG is relevant and only needs the passionate vote of the group...

My predictions for the nomination -Until the BAFTA:

ACTOR:
-Bradley Cooper
-Daniel Day-Lewis
-John Hawkes
-Hugh Jackman
-Denzel Washington

ACTRESS:
-Jessica Chastain
-Marion Cotillard
-Jennifer Lawrence
-Naomi Watts
-Quvenzhané Wallis - Did you check the reactions after GG? Actually she could easily dump Mirren.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
-Alan Arkin
-Robert De Niro
-Tommy Lee Jones
-Christoph Waltz -I believe Leo will be snubbed again-
-Surprise nominee (This category is a mess. Maybe we have a surprise nominee). Maybe Jason Clarke? Ewan McGregor? Dwight Henry?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
-Sally Field
-Anne Hathaway
-Helen Hunt
-Nicole Kidman
-Maggie Smith

If this will be our final llineup, better chances for Hathaway's Oscar after all...

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterleon

Or maybe Leo will get it and Waltz will be snubbed -But right now I don't think both will get it, yet.

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered Commenterleon

I don't know about Helen Mirren, still...

Nathaniel -- Didn't you mention that some Academy members loved the film, Mirren and Hopkins?

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterJohn D.

The other big question is who will be this year's Max von Sydow? Who will manage to make it to Oscar's shortlisting without the GG/SAG combo?

Riva? Jackson? McConaughey? Henry? Goodman? Wallis? Hopkins? Redmayne? Trintignant? Dowd? McGregor?

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterHannibal Lester

Also, BAFTA will be key in best actress I think. BAFTA usually influences oscars a lot when there are two competitors battling it out for a spot. It's not the end-all-be-all, but it will be a strong indicator. Not when they nominate Judi Dench for a shitty movie and a random, bland performance, but when they nominate someone actually in conversation.

Also, when do they come out?

I think it will influence Best Actress a lot.

Rachel Weisz won't be eligible, as she was last year in the UK, so I think she might be out.

Is Beasts even eligible? And if so, would they even nominate Q? Doubt it ... so I think she might be out too.

Emmanuelle Riva probably has a good chance with BAFTA, assuming its eligible.
But so does Mirren, since ... ya know. Its Mirren, and its the BAFTAs.

Actually, maybe they'll just nominate Judi Dench for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel... and also nominate her Skyfall. And Maggie Smith for THBEMH. That'll probs round out actress and supporting actress, lol.

I honestly don't know.

Shall be interesting.

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip

Nvm, BAFTA noms come out the day before Oscar noms. That means they won't really influence Oscar, but could be a good predictor. Unless it's Judi Dench; that could be a predictor, or just the simple fact that it's the BAFTAs and she's Judi Dench.

December 15, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip

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