I Did Surprisingly Well on My Predictions. And You?
Thursday, January 10, 2013 at 10:24AM 
Though I feared a complete and utter breakdown of my predictive skills this year, as it turns out I did about the same as usual which is quite wonderful given how difficult those fifth spots were this year and how much you had to chuck statistical expectations to get it right (Riva and Haneke and Amour had so little precursor support but I had a feeling from way back that they'd find their way in, that they'd be "sticky" enough as it were in the memory)
The Big Eight in the high profile categories Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplays I had an 81% degree of accuracy with 36/44 nominees guessed correctly.
All Categories Absent the Shorts 77% (83/107)
All Categories Including The Shorts 74% (91/122)
Last Minute Mistakes - I had a perfect predicted set in Production Design until I swapped out Life of Pi at the last second, thinking that Django Unchained might win a farewell honor for J Michael Riva who died during production. And last last night I stated on Twitter my regret that I didn't predict Waltz over Redmayne in Supporting Actor (a no guts no glory call that gave me no glory...). I would've been 100% there too though I remain confused that Waltz won more attention than DiCaprio or Jackson whose work in tandem is the best the highly uneven Django has to offer.
Categories I'm Most Proud Of - It was a cinch to predict Adapted Screenplay this year -- interview coming up with one of the nominees -- so my 100% guesswork there is no biggie and nothing to shout about. But I'm pleasantly surprised that I went 9 for 9 in Best Picture for two reasons. The first is that since I had placed them in if 7... if 8... if 9... order and all 9 lined up that I was spot on and the second and even better reason is that apart from about ½ of Silver Linings Playbook and about ¼ of Django Unchained I think they're all really good movies and six of them are on my own top ten list (which has been delayed due to all this Oscar madness)
I knew Colleen Atwood's death-fetish royalty porn wouldn't fail in the Costume category
I'm also pleased that I went 4 for 5 in so many categories (13 in all!) but particularly the difficult cases of Actress and Costume Design (missing only Mirror Mirror - I had predicted A Royal Affair instead since they often like royalty porn and one foreign film in that shortlist), and Foreign Film (I missed only "No" but I'm THRILLED about the nomination since it's such a great movie) arguably my 3 top interests as categories go. I am not nearly as well versed in Documentaries and Sound Editing so I was stunned to call 4 of those 5 correctly too.
Silver LInings Playbook is the first film since 1981 to receive nominations in ALL acting categoriesMy Worst Categories This Year - Like everyone else the shocking Best Director lineup threw me (3/5) but at least I got the Hooper snub / Haneke in mix right but where I made the biggest judgement call errors was Supporting Actress where I let my Nicole Kidman mania persuade me that they'd preserve her wild genius abandon (the Globe & SAG nods are wondrous though) and I confess that I didn't consider Jacki Weaver to be in the running at all. I am a huge Jacki Weaver fan -- she offered to adopt me during the Animal Kingdom campaign, maybe my fondest memory of that awards year -- but I didn't think that Silver Linings Playbook gave her enough to do to win #1 placements.
But my absolute worst prediction field this year was Animated Short. Many people don't predict this category but I predict all categories and the shorts can be really tough. I only corrected guessed 2 of the 5 and am saddened that the eye-popping fascinating Eagleman Stag and the hilariously rauncy Tram didn't make the cut.
Where were you most mistaken and which categories do you feel proudly totes psychic about?
Reader Comments (41)
More, please.
Glad I was 5/5 in Actor. Had Phoenix IN and Hawkes OUT
And now after the mostly glorious nomination morning we get to guess the six that made your top 10! Beasts, Amour, Lincoln, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, and Argo, in that order with Moonrise Kingdom, Farewell My Queen, Magic Mike, and Middle Of Nowhere filling out the spaces between them.
Is it really fair to say you went 9 for 9 in Best Picture when you officially predicted only 6 nominees? ; ) I always thought 6 was a lowball prediction. I predicted 8 myself—and all 8 got picked. (Missed: Amour, which wasn't among my alternates. Once again, I should defer to your wisdom more often.)
Went 5/5 on Best Supporting Actor and 40/54 overall.
Most mistaken: Best Director. Not only did I get 2/5 (Spielberg & Lee), but I actually ranked Ben Affleck as most likely to be nominated. *hangs head in shame*
I went 5/5 in Actress. Thrilled about that. I predicted 8 in Picture, but all 8 made it; I left out Django. I also went 5/5 in Production Design. ;)
J.P. It is really fair to say since almost everyone predicts 10 to cover their asses and doesn't order them -- far easier to score well there since you aren't penalized for overreaching. I always predict on the chart "if 6 then... if 7 then... if 8 then..." and so if i had had Django at #10 i would have claimed to have only predicted 8 of the 9. But i was 9 for 9 on the top 9 with Django at #7
if it makes you feel any better i was still maintiaining up until 8:40 thi smorning that Affleck was going to WIN best director in february. lol
I went 5/5 in best actress, 4/5 best actor, 4/5 supporting actress, 3/5 best supporting actor (4/5 if DiCaprio and Waltz are interchangeable), 3/5 in best director, 4/5 original screenplay, 5/5 adapted screenplay. I predicted 8 nominees for best picture but only got 7 (I thought "The Master" would get enough #1 votes).
I am SO GLAD I stuck with Beasts of the Southern Wild in Picture and Actress. Benh Zeitlin was sixth in my Director ballot (I thought Bigelow was a shoo-in) only because I thought the directors would respond well, but that after Haneke they wouldn't let in such an outsider/newbie. Still, though, I was only 3/5 in Director and am still in shock that David O. Russell is in over Ben Affleck.
What I'm most pleased about is that I went 5/5 in Best Actor, predicting that Phoenix would be in and Hawkes would be the one who fell out. All of what little talk there has been around The Sessions has been about Helen Hunt, and outside of that it never really caught on. Incidentally, I also went 5/5 in Actress and 4/5 in Supporting Actor (I had DiCaprio instead of Waltz, which pisses me off. NO WAY is Schultz a Supporting part. That is a co-lead right there, and I thought they would see that). I only did 3/5 in Supporting Actress, though. I LOVE Jacki Weaver, but she had so little to do in Silver Linings, especially compared to Kidman and Dowd and even Barks that I never considered her after seeing the film (I had Kidman and Dowd instead of Adams and Weaver).
I even surprised myself in Best Pictue: I had 9, but thought Moonrise Kingdom would be in over Django. I don't know why. Django was my #10, though, so there's that.
You know, I wasn't a fan of the Best Picture change up a couple years ago when they switched it from five, but I have to say, I think the move has really reinvigorated the nomination process. I think voters are being a lot more strategic about their ballots now that see what the power of number one votes has done to Best Picture. No way a Benh Zeitlin or a Michael Haneke would have made it into Best Director in say 2006. There have been more surprises in just the last two years than in the entire decade before it. Last year Terence Malick and Tree Of Life and Gary Oldman, and this year even more and even bigger surprises all across the board.
SO disappointed with the nominations. I'm done with the Oscars this year.
I KNEW Ted would sneak in for a nomination. I called it months ago and all of my friends doubted me. I guess I have that going for me...
the categories I'm most proud of are Best Actress and Best Production Design (both 5/5). the worst were Best Director and Best Sound Editing (both 2/5)
The only category I went 5/5 in was Actress. Just had a gut feeling about that lineup.
Miserably off in most every other category though :)
And you weren't alone in thinking Jacki Weaver wasn't even in the running (though I do adore her!)
Okay, okay. But as for Affleck, yeah—I had him winning, too. All prepared to predict Lincoln/Affleck split. This is why we don't pick winners before the nominations come out.
Me on Oscar nominations morning, 1995: "Terence Stamp is absolutely going to win Best Supporting Actor for Priscilla...WHAT??"
I got 8 of 9 Best Pic nom's correct (and would have been 9 for 9 had I predicted 9) but ultimately I thought Amour would just be too depressing for the Academy.
Also I'm happy to have stuck with Joaquin and Quevenzhene (sp? I suck) more out of wishful thinking than anything else. So on top of that I'm happy that my wishful thinking was rewarded.
Now that she's in, it's safe to say that Jean Dujardin's pronunciation of "Quvenzhane Wallis" next month stands a very good chance of being my favorite thing in 2013.
J.P. that's a good one, though I don't think Stamp was considered as guaranteed as Affleck was this year. Guess they don't like him as much as we all thought.
Wow...some PR folks are popping bottles today for the ZDT torture smear campaign. Hats off, jackasses. Lack of love for that film, and an (overly and unnecessarily) abundant showing for ZDT has me convinced (and concerned and dejected) that this means Jennifer Lawrence will win for the very wrong performance in a role she wasn't ready or right for in a film that we will all look back and go "meh." Maybe Emanuelle or Quevanzhane can surprise yet again the night of? I almost see that as more likely now over Chastain overcoming her film's stumbles, especially as she won't be in LA to campaign this month.
Can't believe some of those men beat out John Hawkes, particularly Bradley Cooper (enjoyed him in the film, but c'mon man, level of difficulty) and Hugh Jackman. Loved Denzel in "Flight," but that screenplay is an embarrassment. Where was "Looper" when we needed it? And speaking of "Looper," not getting a proper campaign out there for Emily Blunt was a tragedy. How Jacki Weaver gets in is beyond me. Nicole, Ann, Jennifer Ehle. Heck, I'd have taken seat-fillers like Judi Dench or Maggie Smith hands-above Jacki's unsupported work in the film. (Seriously, David O. left that poor woman hanging there in the background.)
Excited for the Beasts showing (surprised it didn't make score with all that attention), and Amour as well. But meh. meh. meh.
I was pretty sure the voters would totally go crazy for the "eldest and youngest best actress nominees ever". Everyone loves that kind of thing. We're going to hear it ad nauseam.
Steve: I'm already surmising that the backlash to the Kathryn Bigelow snub might ultimately help Jessica Chastain.
I had lots of 4/5, but my worst categories were Director (only 2), and both Sound categories (2/5, each) -- not really sure what happened there.
The one I'm really bummed about is Cinematography (got 3), especially because I'd gotten all 5 last year.
Kinda happy about getting 4/5 on Documentary Short and Live Action Short too, especially since it was basically guessing for me.
I'm shocked (in an Oscars kind of way) that Kathryn Bigelow was left out of the nominations. Bold, skilled, daring, original, how can this not be included?
I'm curious, you said that apart from 1/2 of Silver Linings and 1/4 of Django, the best picture lineup is all really good movies. Does this mean you've changed your mind about Life of Pi being a C film?
Bob -- OOPS. forgot about that one.
MIke in Canada -- COMMENT OF THE MONTH. lol.
82 on the feature-lengths. 91 with the shorts.
I knew I should have gone with Life of Pi over The Perks of Being a Wallflower... Proudest of my Mirror, Mirror prediction.
Supporting actress is the one that surprises me: It's still between Sally, my preference, and Anne but I had hoped that Ann Dowd would be in there. Jacki Weaver is a surprise although I haven't seen the film yet and she's a talented woman but it sounds like the part was lacking which is frustrating when deserving work that was in play is now unrecognized because of her inclusion.
Now my rant: I just don't get the love for Amy Adams! She's a competent actress but I have yet to see anything she has done be revelatory. She has now managed to amass four nominations, putting her in the company of acting geniuses Lee Grant, Maureen Stapleton, Ethel Barrymore, and Agnes Moorhead!!! she is nowhere near their class or level of skill! Now there's the risk of people awarding her just because they think she's due cheating a truly deserving nominee.
The exclusion of Ben Affleck cuts deep because the film is so tense and well directed.
I am kind of shocked by the lack of first time nomminees in the acting categories. Only four first time nomminees. There seems to usually be at least twice that.
Didn't really do predictions this year, outside of the lead acting races and I was 10/10. Booyah! However, I was also sure Affleck would win directing and Leo would win supporting. Oops...
Cannot fully express my disappointment about the Bigelow snub. I do agree with JP that the shocking snub may help Chastain. I just really really REALLY can't imagine Lawrence winning (and I liked SLP!)
Nailed actress - and that's it. ahaha
Interesting Trivia: One lady will be winning her first Best Actress Oscar this year, since NONE of the Best Actress nominees this year has ever won.
Nathan, congrats on your soothsaying skills! So cool. My predictions went this way: I picked all but Amour for Best Pic (I had Moonrise instead); four out of five in each of the acting categories, except for Supporting Actress, where I missed both Adams and Weaver; and I sucked at Director--only got Spielmeister and Lee right. Still can't believe they snubbed Bigelow. Sigh.
If ANYONE got Best Director right, I'd say THEY deserve some kind of special Oscar for prognostication.
Wise choices for the actors and actresses nominated. I am very please with the Academy-
@joel6: i share in your rant.
It irks me that Adams has now got more oscar nominations than Kidman, and has done it in less time too.
Top 8 Categories: 33/44
All Categories 84/122
Most Proud Of:
Best Supp. Actor 5/5
Best Animated Short 5/5 OMG!!!!!!!!!! :-)
(I predicted correctly that there will be 9 best picture nominees :-))
Worst Categories:
Best Directing 2/5
Best Sound Mixing 2/5
Best Sound Editing 2/5
Got 9/9 for picture, and in tenth place I had Moonrise Kingdom if there had been 10. I actually put them in the correct order (Moonrise in last place) though I do think I probs should've had Skyfall there instead of Moonrise.
2/5 for director - only got Spielberg and Lee. Crazy shocking category.
Got 4/5 for actress - had Cotillard in place of Wallis. Sad for Cotillard but happy with the choices, especially since Helen Mirren didn't get in!
Got 4/5 for actor - had Hawkes instead of Pheonix.
Got 3/5 for supporting actor - I knew it would be this (except I thought Leo would be in place of Waltz cuz I thought he would win the GG and Oscar), but I decided to place Eddie Redmayne in place of Alan Arkin a few weeks back in wishful thinking.
Got 3/5 for supporting actress - got the obvious locks, but I thought Maggie Smith and Ann Dowd (though Dowd was more wishful thinking by the time I revised my predictions) and was hoping for Dowd and Kidman. instead they went for the obvious amy adams, who I really thought would be in dowd's place, and then jacki weaver - who saw that coming???
I'm so conflicted. I love Jacki Weaver and am happy she's a two-time nominee, but sad it came for this role ... like really? It wasn't even her fault, there was just really nothing to that role. I hope this doesn't bring backlash though, it's not her fault. Good for her. It's better than a non-deserving performance from a mediocre unlikeable actor. AMIRIGHTORAMIRIGHT
I am glad that Oscar gave us a few surprises BUT what I'm hoping for most at the moment is the announcement of your Top 10 films of 2012. The Film Bitch Awards are far more exciting and difficult to predict. I have had trouble focusing on any of your wonderful Oscar nomination commentary the last few days because at the end of your Monday night post about the Honorable Mentions and Runners-Up you wrote this:
TOMORROW NIGHT:
Nathaniel's Official Top Ten List
How much longer are you going to keep us wiggling with anticipation? Revealing number 6 on the podcast took the edge off a little, but now I am jonesing to hear the rest. I love when you live blog for us, but pretty sure it means you won't be satisfying my craving again tonight. ;-)
Naughty Nathaniel, you are such a tease.
I had 35 out of 44 for the top 8 categories, and 81 out of 107 for all (except shorts). Not as good as you, but close!!
Top 8 Categories: 33/44
All Categories 84/122
Most Proud Of:
Best Supp. Actor 5/5
Best Animated Short 5/5 OMG!!!!!!!!!! :-)
(I predicted correctly that there will be 9 best picture nominees :-))
Worst Categories:
Best Directing 2/5
Best Sound Mixing 2/5
Best Sound Editing 2/5
I had been predicting Watts/Cotillard/Riva for sometime now, but in bed few hours before noms, I had this sudden moment of clarity and realised that Riva and Wallis were both going to be nominated and I was 100% sure about that at the time. Also figured the other 3. WHen I saw it true, I briefly wondered if I was dreaming, as I often do that. I am sad about Cotillard. My #2 in the catagory. She got Swintoned :(
No clue on Supporting Actress (Jackie Weaver WTF??) Supporting actor I got 5/5, actor I missed Phoenix, but I did feel that Hawkes would be the one to miss if one did.
Director LOL, Not even close. I predicted the big four would get in, the I thought Hooper would miss, but Tarantino would take his place. Nup. Didn't even consider Russel, and especially Zeitlin, and though Heneke was a long shot.
Crazy Crazy noms. Yay for Riva, and the Best Picture list really is pretty great, but not so happy bout the rest really.