SAG Predictions & Other Giggles

Before I begin my sure to be pointless and extremely late SAG predictions, I must share this good LOL. For the past 48 hours IMDb had had a hilariously odd Golden Globes 2015 page up that Nick pointed out on twitter. They FINALLY fixed it this evening but I took a screenshot earlier, knowing it would eventually vanish, to prove it once existed.

I probably shouldn't have photoshopped the screenshot to underline (aka magnify) the funny but I swear to you this actually existed.

Best Motion Picture Drama - The Expendables 3 

Hee! It's even funnier because it wasn't "nominated" for Best Motion Picture Comedy or Musical.

Ansel Elgort will be announcing the SAG nominees but I will not try to justify this gif by suggesting after the jump that Christoph Waltz will be nominated for Big Eyes even though the Expendables 3 also features old European dudes repeating their beloved schtick to diminishing returns.

But maybe I should? If only to exorcize my fear by preparing for the worst?

My SAG Predictions, which I have *never* claimed to be good at - Oscars being my specialty - are based on the assumption that their nominations generally reflect a slightly earlier mindset than the one the internet's been feeling around the time they announce. They start voting in November which is why. Anything that debuted very late, like A Most Violent Year, American Sniper, Selma, Unbroken, Big Eyes, etcetera is thus at a disadvantage... though sometimes that doesn't matter. 

My predictions go like so far... 

BEST ACTOR 

• Eddie Redmayne, Theory of Everything
• Michael Keaton, Birdman
• Benedict Cumberbatch, Imitation Game
• Chadwick Boseman, Get On Up
• Steve Carell, Foxcatcher 

alternates: I think there's going to be a surprise here and my guess for the surprise is Chadwick Boseman though part of me wants to predict Miles Teller instead. Less surprising options I could see happening would be Jake Gyllenhaal or Bradley Cooper. And it would be less sane to say David Oyelowo but is his profile too low and his traction too late for SAG's early voting?

BEST ACTRESS

• Reese Witherspoon, Wild
• Felicity Jones, Theory of Everything
• Julianne Moore, Still Alice
• Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
• Hilary Swank, The Homesman 

alternates: It's probably very stupid to bet against Amy Adams -- especially since SAG's vote often reflect an earlier kind of Oscar buzz. but Hilary Swank had been surging a few weeks ago (before Marion Cotillard started killing every other longshot's buzz) so I'm going with Swank. But nominations for Jennifer Aniston or Shailene Woodley would also make a kind of SAGgy sense, you know?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
• Ed Norton, Birdman
• Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
• Robert Duvall, The Judge
• Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

alternates: Beyond Simmons and Norton, it seems up for grabs. But Ruffalo has had a great high profile year so even people who don't like Foxcatcher might vote for him. I live in abject fear of Christoph Waltz happening but it wouldn't be the least bit surprising since SAG is more forgiving of broadly comic work than Oscar. But SAG sometimes swings populist and funny so wouldn't it be kind of fun to see Tyler Perry or Chris Pine show up?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
• Emma Stone, Birdman
• Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
• Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
• Laura Dern, Wild

alternates: I'm guessing that this lineup -- which is also my Oscar prediction lineup in my head right now -- results in Keira Knightley falilng out for Laura Dern who has been campaigning like mad and is a super duper duper easy to love celebrity. I'm secretly hoping Carrie Coon is a mainstream hit surprise but wouldn't Rene Russo or Anna Kendrick also make sense? 

OUTSTANDING CAST

• Birdman 
• Boyhood
• The Imitation Game
• Into the Woods
• Selma 

Why did I choose those five? It's complicated. One can see any number of outcomes for this marquee category. In fact they ONLY film I think can safely ink in a nomination is Birdman because it's a) fun b) has a big cast who is interactive and c) three actors that people really like in it that will be nominated on their own in the individual categories and SAG does like to double up that way. Otherwise I'm going with Imitation Game and Boyhood solely due to Oscar buzz (though yes the acting is good).  I'm told to fear Guardians of the Galaxy here under the plausible suspicion that many SAG voters vote for "movies they wish they could have been in that feel like they were fun for the actors to make together" But my feeling is that there are enough pictures that fit that bill that it's not going to happen for a superhero movie. I do think the "wish i coulda been in that" will help Into the Woods though. Because a) it's a musical and SAG likes that genre and b) you could work with Meryl Streep if you were in it. I'm going to guess that Selma gets some votes even from those who hadn't seen it but that other late bloomers like A Most Violent Year don't have that kind of 'sight unseen' willingness to back them. 

WISHFUL THINKING
Frankly I have trouble thinking of a better movie to nominate here than  Gone Girl since its strength is in its community of players spinning about madly and uncomfortably from that tornado of a central icky marriage. I'm with Kevin...

I’m not saying I’ll be *distraught* if Gone Girl doesn’t get a SAG ensemble nomination, except that’s exactly what I’ll be.

— Kevin O'Keeffe (@kevinpokeeffe) December 9, 2014

BUT I fear voters won't think of it as an ensemble movie (even though it most certainly is) because so much of the media attention was on "Amazing Amy" 

And, finally, my heart would swell 10 times its normal size tomorrow morning if a miracle happened and I got my true wish...

I will be holding a candlelight vigil for @PrideMovie when it misses a SAG Cast nom tomorrow. Good luck seeing candles since: 9:00 AM

— Nathaniel Rogers (@nathanielr) December 9, 2014

Comments

[Dusty]

I don't have anything to add here except RALPH FIENNES RALPH FIENNES RALPH FIENNES. Actually, I had kind of forgotten that I should be looking forward to SAG.

[Conrado]

I would loooove a Ralph Fiennes nomination. He is probably getting a Globe nom, so a SAG would put him amongst the most likely Oscar nominees.

[Rich]

I have my fingers crossed for Cotillard. I'm tired of hearing the same names that have been pushed all year by bloggers and publicists. Cotillard deserves to be there.

[Justin]

I was hoping there'd be something wacky on the recently viewed section on that IMDB screen grab but that all looks about like what Nathaniel would be looking up.

[NATHANIEL R]

JUSTIN -- lol. but that "recently viewed" changes every day i'm on there so damn much ;)

[Joe]

Haha Sally Kirkland, Cheyenne Jackson, and Missi Pyle as your three most recent. That sounds about right. Would be SO on board with a Gone Girl ensemble nomination as well, glad you're highlighting it!

[San FranCinema]

Funny, my first thought was also Ralph Fiennes! Maybe if enough of us are thinking it, the SAG folks are too?

[Bette Streep]

Nathaniel - Pride might still get an ensemble SAG nom. Even Staunton and Nighy might surprise us in the supporting categories.

Pride is one of the BEST ACTED movies of the year. All the main characters were exceptional.

And why isn't anyone predicting Cotillard for Best Actress? I think she is the only threat to Julianne Moore in the Oscars.

And I don't care how brilliant Hilary Swank might be in Homesman - if she wins her third I'm gonna stop following the Oscars for good.

[Henry]

All the predictors are being very safe and obvious with their predictions which I fear may happen. The recent spate of critic awards have gotten us spoiled.

[Trey]

These are pretty much my predictions also, although I'm going with Gyllenhaal instead of Boseman for actor. I also have a feeling Grand Budapest Hotel might surprise in Ensemble.

[Peggy Sue]

I lost my faith in SAG voters long ago, but I got my Globes whislist ready!