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« Smackdown 1941: Margaret, Mary, Sara, Patricia & Teresa | Main | The Darling Buds of May: Aunt May »
Saturday
May312014

First Round Oscar Predix: Best Actress

The initial Oscar charts from this already rolling film year are nearing completion. Now it's time for our favorite category... BEST ACTRESS

from top left: jessisa chastain, juli, nicole, AMY ADAMS, Dame Mirren, The Swank, Anna Kendrick, Dame Maggie, Meryl, Jess again, Charlize, CATE, MICHELLE, REESE, ROSAMUND, Shailene, Marion, Mia, Melissa

If this doesn't get you talking, nothing will...

Coming out of Cannes, things don't look great for Marion Cotillard (who can't seem to win Cannes best actress or a second Oscar nomination despite numerous buzzy attempts at both) or Hilary Swank (The Homesman) but it's worth remembering that Oscar voters are a very different sort and voting in a very different climate than Cannes critics and jury members. Cannes is never the be all and end all for movies with big stars... or movies that fall closer to mainstream prestige than auteur prestige, if you know what I mean.

That said, the only thing Grace of Monaco might do for Nicole Kidman's Oscar chances is help her knock people's socks off unexpectedly if she's great in Queen of the Desert. Not that we know what kind of release that Werner Herzog biopic might get. And not that we should necessarily hope that Oscar keys in to Herzog since they've had trouble there before. 

As for our darling Julianne Moore, a Cannes win is a big deal for any actress but it is unfortunately free of Oscar boosts beyond bragging rights.

Julianne with her prize

What it does do -- which is not unimportant -- is open people's ideas to the fact that she's impressive in it and makes them more likely to engage and consider whatever it is she's doing in it. That can't hurt given that it's an outre role and the performance is considered excessively mannered by some. Even though the film and the role aren't exactly Oscar bait, anything is possible and after a 12 year absence from Oscar shortlists, it'd be wonderful to have her back and might require a shock to the system like this to accomplish.

Stay tuned.

my first wave predictions... 

 

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Reader Comments (68)

anon - agreed. Chastain has not, in any stretchy sense of the word been "snubbed". She's been well rewarded for with two nominations for the 2 years in which she was eligible for awards (2011 & 2012), so that's 100% of the time ...

cmg -- you're probably right about Streep which is why it's insane that i have her in sixth place. But on the other hand the film COULD be a disaster. and there's always hte chance that they don't go for it just because it's comedic... which is like the only Meryl they ever skip. like Hope Springs or Prime or She Devil or what have you

May 31, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

haha, well it's not your watch is it.

Don't temp fate. I don't have to be disgruntled online through words. I can be disgruntled in real life through actions.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

Chastain has not, in any stretchy sense of the word been "snubbed".

Losing to Lawrence at the first opportunity given in Best Actress is an insult. The 22 year old versus the 30 plus actress who concealed her real age because the powers that be would consider her old by their chronology standards for women.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

"Don't temp fate. I don't have to be disgruntled online through words. I can be disgruntled in real life through actions."

@3rtful: I really don't appreciate the threat.

But sorry, I should have worded my response better. It started out long and wordy and I cut it down to be more concise but should've kept it how it was initially so that no offense could be taken. .

My point was that it's not up to us. I wish it was cause I think we are on the same page about it. The academy uses that stupid logic again and again - and that has resulted in all those great actresses you mentioned losing out. The fact that they've used it before could mean they could use it again with Chastain. It should all be about the performance - unfortunately that is not always the case.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered Commenteranon

Don't you think that Moore could go supporting? After all Map is an ensemble film and Wasikowska's role is the one who connects all the characters

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMirko

@anon

My response reads scary. But I promise you it was not a threat against your person.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered Commenter3rtful

I know Meryl's 18 nods are insane, in 36 years, but every role was pretty much Oscar bait, even the girlfriend in a war movie (The Deer Hunter). From there it went to bait after bait, after bait. As much as Doubt and A:OC were hated lately, these roles were pure bait. Thatcher was ueber-bait, so no one did care for the director or the overall film quality of TIL at all.
I just don't think the witch in ITW is as baity as her last baity LEAD roles, no matter how prestige the musical is. Supporting on the other hand is actually possible.
Though it's true Marshall latest misfires were the Geisha and Nine, but both films did recieve several Oscar tech noms, even WINS and Cruz got an acting nom for Nine, so if Disney sets Meryl into supporting, it's a sure nom. Just not lead.
But I'm still not sure how Disney will support Meryl at all after she blasted Walt Disney at the NBR. Though no one seems to talk about that anymore, so maybe it does not have an impact at all.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterSonja

/3RTFUL-- yes, please think before you type. This is meant to be a friendly place to comment and it must stay that way. As for Chastain losing to Lawrence...that's not a snub. Snubs is a word for deserved or expected nominations that were denied -- at least in the Oscar context -- but i can understand calling it an insult)

ANON-- not just "not always the case" but "never the case" haha. P.S. "anon" used to be for people who said nasty things in comments online but you're not like that. you're well tempered. so you should pick a name :)

MIRKO & EDWIN- i suppose Moore could but usually when you're the biggest star in an ensemble film, you're considered the lead.

JOE -- - thanks. I couild see Cotillard as a threat for Macbeth if released. But on the other hand, Oscar doesn't often go for Shakespeare and they do seem to hesitant to really commit to Cotillard. which is weird considering her work post Oscar.

NIKKI - thanks for joining my lonely club. I do hope people see Rigby. but i think it's too indie / too contemporary low key for much awards traction.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Well, I just saw "Macbeth" is going to be released this year finally and wow, didn't expect this at all. I was sure it would be released in 2015, despite having posters out already. Anyway, if that's the case, I guess Marion Cotillard can see the strongest possibility to be nominated again for that film. Yet again, splitting votes with herself - since she has two highly praised performances in leading roles already ("The Immigrant", "Two days, one night") - seems to me anything but impossible. But I hope she gets at least a nomination this time, for any of these films. As for Meryl Streep, I think it goes without saying that she will be nominated again in either leading or supporting role (supporting seems to me more likely) for "Into the woods". And Jessica Chastain, I mean what can I say, it's really disappointing that she hasn't won yet. She's definitely not "snubbed" (she has two nominations already), but she's such an extremely talented actress she should have at least one Oscar win by now. She has shown an incredible range and has come to show her abilities in full display. But I'm a little worried about the campaign strategy behing "Eleanor Rigby". I hope it isn't too baffling for voters. I haven't seen aby of the three films, but I have the feeling that the real showcase for her is "Her" and not "Them", which I totally agree with 3rtful that seems to be the only version of the movie in circulation during awards season. As for Jennifer Lawrence, if "Serena" finally comes out this year, I think it's very likely she will be nominated again. Personally, I think she's a tremendous young actress, aside the fact that she's one of the most popular in the world right now and that inevitably causes many people to envy her or disregard her. Even if I adore Julianne Moore as an actress, I think it's really and I mean REALLY hard for a film like "Maps to the stars" to be considered seriously for any category from voters. Which is very sad of course, since it's a true auteur's work and Moore looks once again amazing in it. Her chances if she goes supporting seem far better to me, but again...

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterStergios

I still have fait that Gena can get a third nomination before she passes aways, and Six Dance Lesson in Six Weeks could be the role for it. She could win on a sentimental vote alone, even if she is not that great (but she is always great).

(I know this is wishful thinking)

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

Jessica Chastain lost Best Actress to a vulgarian / L'enfant terrible. She has been snubbed.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterMike M.

Sorry everyone, didn't mean to light the world on fire when I used the word "snub." I just meant it in terms of Chastain having lost to Lawrence for a performance that I imagine came pretty close to winning. Carry on.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterAlex

Cal -- i think it would be wonderful if the film is any good but the fact that we haven't heard a peep has me worried it's going to be a straight to dvd/cable sorta film.

June 1, 2014 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Really Nicole Kidman has a chance to be nominated? What are the latest news about The queen of the desert? I dream to see her winning a second Oscar.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterAlberto

If Viggo and Hurt could get in for their Cronenbergs, there's hope for Moore.

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterPaul Outlaw

Alberto -- unfortunately i've heard no news about Queen of the Desert since they wrapped shooting a few months ago. I assume they're editing but i haven't heard anything about distribution

June 1, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterNathaniel R

Who' s going to be the indie darling this year nathaniel??? I've got a name for you Zoe Kazan the pretty one her performance got great reviews but the movie itself didnt

June 2, 2014 | Unregistered Commenterdavid

Suzanne, for what it's worth, RABBIT HOLE wasn't picked up until Toronto and then released very shortly after so those without distributors needn't fret.

" give Chastain her due."

Yup, two Oscar nominations five years into her career and she deserves her "due". LOL.

I imagine Julianne Moore will be campaigned in whatever category they think is easier. If more lead or supporting potentials drop off between now and Oscar season.

June 2, 2014 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn

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