SAG Predictions. Got any crazy ones?
Sunday, January 25, 2015 at 5:32PM 
I'm betting it continues to be a big weekend for Birdman on account of actors playing actors in a movie about acting (not to mention that the ensemble IS truly worthy) but I could be wrong. The temptation to wield your guild's top award as a defacto Best Picture prize -- even though none of the guilds are meant to be awarding that but their own craft instead -- has often proven a strong lure. Boyhood is easier to love so perhaps they'll hand the prize to just four people: Patricia Arquette, Ethan Hawke, Ellar Coltrane and Lorelei Linklater. Otherwise I feel little fear in predicting Keaton, Moore, Arquette and Simmons as the winners. Same as it ever was. That said if Eddie Redmayne is the viable Oscar threat I think he is, things could shift here in Best Actor to put him firmly in first place. After all SAG did go really above and beyond for Theory nominating this three-hander (for all intents and purposes) for the Ensemble prize.
It's worth noting that nominating committees are different than general voting bodies. They are much smaller and more peculiar and they vote much earlier. The conversation about Redmayne's movie has been drowned out recently by discussions about every other Best Picture nominee outside of maybe Whiplash.
Birdman, SAG, precursor awards
Reader Comments (16)
Not much crazy here. What I actually voted for in CAPS:
Motion Pictures
Cast: BIRDMAN
- will win: Birdman
- should have been nominated: Pride
Male Actor (Leading): MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN
- will win: Keaton
- should have been nominated: David Oyelowo, Selma; Tom Hardy, Locke
Female Actor (Leading): JULIANNE MOORE, STILL ALICE
- will win: Moore
- should have been nominated: Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant/Two Days. One Night
Male Actor (Supporting): J.K. SIMMONS, WHIPLASH
- will win: Simmons
- should have been nominated: Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman; Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Female Actor (Supporting): EMMA STONE, BIRDMAN
- will win: Arquette
- should have been nominated: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year; Rene Russo, Nightcrawler
Stunts: FURY
- will win: Unbroken
- should have been nominated: no thoughts on this
Television
Ensemble (Drama): GAME OF THRONES
- will win: House of Cards
- should have been nominated: The Americans, Mad Men
Male Actor (Drama): WOODY HARRELSON, TRUE DETECTIVE
- will win: Kevin Spacey
- should have been nominated: Matthew Rhys, The Americans; Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Female Actor (Drama): TATIANA MASLANY, ORPHAN BLACK
- will win: Julianna Margulies
- should have been nominated: Keri Russell, The Americans; Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
Ensemble (Comedy): VEEP
- will win: Orange Is the New Black
- should have been nominated: Archer, Parks and Recreation
Male Actor (Comedy): TY BURRELL, MODERN FAMILY
- will win: Ty Burrell
- should have been nominated: Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation; Adam Scott, Parks and Recreation
Female Actor (Comedy): EDIE FALCO, NURSE JACKIE
- will win: Julia Louis-Drefyfus
- should have been nominated: Tracee Ellis Ross, Blackish
Male Actor (Movie/Miniseries): RICHARD JENKINS, OLIVE KITTERIDGE
- will win: Billy Bob Thornton
- should have been nominated: no thoughts on this
Female Actor (Movie/Miniseries): FRANCES McDORMAND, OLIVE KITTERIDGE
- will win: Cicely Tyson
- should have been nominated: no thoughts on this
Stunts: THE WALKING DEAD
- will win: Game of Thrones
- should have been nominated: no thoughts on this
I'm guessing this will be another successful night for Birdman, but I'm hoping that Boyhood or The Grand Budapest Hotel can surprise in Ensemble. Edward Norton's performance was the only one I really loved in Birdman, though I thought Naomi Watts and Andrea Riseborough were good in their underutilized roles, too.
As far as Best Actor goes, I'm not wild about Michael Keaton's work and don't want to listen to another one of his speeches. My vote would go to Jake Gyllenhaal.
Hope that Patricia Arquette and Julianne Moore repeat their victories tonight. They are two frontrunners I am 100% behind.
Not much crazy here (maybe one). What I actually voted for in CAPS: (Thank you Paul Outlaw for the template.)
Motion Pictures
Cast: GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
- will win: Birdman
- I'm happy with anyone but Theory. Too many actors as props in that one.
Male Actor (Leading): MICHAEL KEATON, BIRDMAN
- will win: Keaton
- I would have voted for Feinnes if he had been nominated and Tatum was miles better than Carroll.
Female Actor (Leading): FELICITY JONES
- will win: Moore
- I didn't see Witherspoon. The itunes downloads didn't play and the film was only in the area for a week. I felt Jones and Moore gave equally brilliant performances and rather than flip a coin, I went with the better film. Still Alice is not a good movie despite the efforts of the actors. (At least 95% of the voters will not have seen Still Alice or Cake on the big screen and the small screen does Gone Girl (and Pike) no favors. I'm not surprised it has done poorly with nominations.).
Male Actor (Supporting): J.K. SIMMONS, WHIPLASH
- will win: Simmons
- I had to flip a coin between Simmons and Hawke Both were superb although all the men in this group did good work.
Female Actor (Supporting): PATRICIA ARQUETTE
- will win: Arquette
- should have been nominated: Duncan and Watts (Birdman), Swinton (Snowpiercer), Stewart (Still Alice). I did not see Watts in St. V.
Stunts: FURY
- will win: Unbroken
Television
Ensemble (Drama): GAME OF THRONES
- will win: House of Cards
Male Actor (Drama): PETER DINKLAGE
- will win: Kevin Spacey
Female Actor (Drama): TATIANA MASLANY, ORPHAN BLACK
- will win: Robin Wright
Ensemble (Comedy): OITNB
- will win: Orange Is the New Black
Male Actor (Comedy): LOUIS C.K.
- will win: Ty Burrell
Female Actor (Comedy): JULIA LOUIS-DREFYFUS
- will win: Julia Louis-Drefyfus
Male Actor (Movie/Miniseries): BILLY BOB THORNTON
- will win: Billy Bob Thornton
Female Actor (Movie/Miniseries): CICELY TYSON
- will win: Maggie G.
Stunts: SONS OF ANARCHY
- will win: Game of Thrones
I don't want BIRDMAN to win ensemble solely because Lindsay's exclusion from the nomination still hurts too much.
Ha, Henry! Interesting where we are in sync. I hope we're wrong about Hose of Cards...
By the way, last year my download of Enough Said didn't play, which was frustrating, and when the same thing happened this year with Gone Girl, I figured out that there's an SD version you can download if the HD version is not compatible with your hardware.
Yeah, Paul! I agree on the sync and Cards.
Two years ago, the itunes downloads were perfect. Last year, NOTHING worked. This year the studio downloads worked with no issue, but nothing made itunes work. SD included. I have no problem downloading music on itunes so I'm at a loss.
Michael Keaton is winning Best Actor and Budapest Hotel best ensemble.
Anyone have a link to stream it live? Poor and without cable here... ;(
Everywhere says the TNT website streams it which is not true, it's the red carpet live stream. Who cares about that?
Even if I thought Theory of Everything was a much better film than Still Alice (which I don't, on the contrary), Jones is simply adequate in it. Hopefully Moore's train keeps rolling.
yes, patty and her paper!
Ya know what? Much as I love Birdman and Boyhood and would actually LOVE if Birdman became a front-runner tonight after the PGA win, the win for Ensemble that would please me most would be Grand Budapest Hotel. And given the size and fame level of the cast, I don't think it's completely out of the question.
frances mcdormand's speech! lol she's wonderful.
That paper...Jesus keep me near the cross. Is there a Binoche in the Supp Actress bunch?
Ok people complaining about Patricia's paper...it's really not that serious. She clearly just doesn't like speaking in front of people like that. If you want someone else to win simply because of that, that's stupid. I mean it kinda sucks, but I honestly felt like her speech tonight was super heartfelt and touching, unlike lots of others who have read off of papers in the past. She seems to just need a point of reference.
I loved Moore and her performance. It was such a surreal twist from her more typical roles. I hope she will get it. But after that, the whole industry is stagnating. There is no flow of really outstanding movies right now. HBO is doing a good job though, maintaining me hooked on series. The big question is whether it serves only to distract us from our current political problems? I believe there is another element to this current mediocricity. Our police state is currently missing only police drones to fly over our heads so that we finally become London like in 1984.
Hey Nathaniel,
Do you think there is anything to the giving of the SAG to Eddie as s consolation prize of sorts because the Oscar could go to Michael Keaton?
I am thinking along the lines of Meryl getting the Oscar over Viola when Viola she won the SAG that year.
Thoughts?