10 Days Til Oscar... What's Your Excitement Level Like?
Thursday, February 12, 2015 at 3:04PM 
It's ten days until Oscar night so each day going forward expect "final predictions" for each category and one last look at the 8 Best Pictures. But a quick question: If we can't go back to a 5 wide shortlist (TFE's preference) would you prefer that AMPAS had stuck with a top ten for symmetry's sake? It's so difficult to compare years with 5, 8, 9, and 10 nominees, you know? If it were still a top ten as it was for two short years (2009 & 2010) which films do you think would have been the two additional nominees in Best Picture this year? It appears obvious that against the odds Foxcatcher, given that "lone director" nomination, was one of them but maybe Nightcrawler wasn't given that it only won a Screenplay nomination?
But we only have 8 movies to deal with this year and since the Oscar race is all subjectivity let's get real objective and rank them by totally measureable stats for a moment.
| Box Office | Longest To Shortest | RT/MC Ratings | Most Contemporary to Oldest Setting | |
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| 1 | Sniper (284) | Boyhood (166) | Boyhood (98/100) | Birdman (Now) |
| 2 | Imitation (75) | Sniper (132) | Selma (98/89) | Whiplash (Now) |
| 3 | Budapest (59) | Selma (127) | Whiplash (95/88) | Boyhood (2002-2013) |
| 4 | Selma (46) | Theory (123) | Budapest (92/88) | Sniper (1998-2013) |
| 5 | Birdman (35) | Birdman (119) | Birdman (92/88) | Theory (1963-1990s) |
| 6 | Theory (32) | Imitation (114) | Imitation (89/73) | Selma (1965) |
| 7 | Boyhood (25) | Whiplash (106) | Theory (80/72) | Imitation (1920s-1954) |
| 8 | Whiplash (9) | Budapest (100) | Sniper (73/72) | Budapest (1930s) |
I guess I'm in a dark cloud mood today because I thought about adding "most to least onscreen deaths" but I realized beyond 1. Sniper 2. Budapest 3. Selma it was a 5 way tie for the others... unless well, what to do about Birdman? Again I was trying to stick to measureable things for fun this afternoon. And I thought about adding The Bechdel Test because it was just too damn depressing since I think only Boyhood passes it (maybe Birdman and Selma and Theory, too? Only if you're being generous and if they do its just barely)
While we're on the topic, make sure to vote on the Best Picture poll and on the other polls on the individual chart pages.
Reader Comments (26)
It's one of those years where the run-up to the ceremony is basically the climax. I'm glad that uniformly great work is being celebrated this year. I'm not sure there's a single frontrunner I'm even "meh" on.
Foxcatcher clearly would have been nominated if there were 10 nominees. Nightcrawler probably would have been the 10th nominee given its precursor run (and it wouldn't have been the first Best Picture nominee whose only other nomination was for screenplay, so I don't think that would have been an issue). But I mean, of course it could have been Into the Woods too, despite the lack of precursor attention. You just never know.
Oh wait. It could have been Gone Girl too. I almost forgot about that.
I think Mr. Turner could have been #10. Or Unbroken.
I'm kind of exhausted by this year and look forward to it being done with.
With ten nominees (which would actually be my preference, rather than this annually shifting number), I do think that Foxcatcher would have been nominated, but I'd suspect that Gone Girl would have been the tenth nominee.
Nat, don't forget that GBH is mainly in the Thirties, but it does at the beginning come up to what could almost be thought to be the present day, with the young woman in the cemetery at the grave of the author.
Each year, in order of most probable to least probable.
10th for 2011: 3 possibilites: Bridesmaids, A Separation or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
10th for 2012: 4 possibilities: The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, Flight or Skyfall.
10th for 2013: 1 possibility: Blue Jasmine, no question.
9th for 2014: 1 possibility: Foxcatcher, no question.
10th for 2014: 8 possibilities: Nightcrawler, The LEGO Movie (hey, Selma got in with just an original song nod and it'd be a way to stick for the rest of the Academy to jab at the animation branch AND acknowledge the Pratt ascendance without touching yet touching Marvel Studios (though they're going to have to bite one of these days)), Gone Girl, Inherent Vice (too drug fuelled, in spite of the adapted screenplay nod, to appeal to get #1 votes outside of writing and techs) Mr. Turner, Into the Woods, Wild, Guardians of the Galaxy.
For the Bechdel Test Boyhood, Birdman, Selma, and The Theory of Everything all pass.
And keeping with the list theme (though being subjective)-ranking the performances of the highest-billed female character in each film:
8. Melissa Benoist (Whiplash)
7. Sienna Miller (American Sniper)
6. Saorise Ronan (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
5. Carmen Ejogo (Selma)
4. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
3. Emma Stone (Birdman)
2. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Volvagia-- I'm pretty sure the 10th nominee in 2011 would have been Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. It was nominated for both PGA and DGA, plus it got 5 Oscar nominations in other categories including a win for Editing. It was actually a mild surprise that it wasn't nominated.
Nathaniel, I love this chart, thank you! On a whole, this past year didn't absolutely thrill me. I loved Birdman, Selma and GBH, but there wasn't a lot of other stuff to get excited about. Just the inclusion of The Imitation Game and The Theory of Something in Best Picture brings the entire Oscars down.
Nat: Including the prologue, American Sniper's more like 1986-2013.
I used to be excited about the Oscars, but now I feel like there's too many spoilers about the ceremony, who's presenting, who's singing, who's been snubbed, blah blah blah, and too much focus on the Red Carpet pre-shows. Plus there are way too many other award shows and dinners with their own press releases of nominations, then notice of actual awards, so by the time the Academy Awards come around, I don't care anymore. Shrug, award overload, I guess.
Besides, I'm still catching up with some good movies from last year because they were only in a handful of theaters for like, a week, and I didn't get a chance to see them, e.g., Gloria, Joe, Obvious Child, The Homesman, Pride, Love is Strange, The Overnighters. Some amazing performances and subject matter but no noms for any of them.
Pam: Joe? To each their own, I guess.
My level of excitement is very low. I feel it's taking us forever to get to Oscar night.
Three of the big 6 categories aren't completely locked down, and I stand little chance of being disappointed no matter which way they land, plus the near-certainty of an Oscar for Juli? All that plus Keira on the red carpet?
Yeah, I'm excited.
I'm always excited to see the actual show, regardless of the nominations.
Since I took a keener interest in the process, it's been less exciting to actually see who wins as we all know more or less all of it some good months in advance ( if not the actual winners, than for sure the nominees ). I might drop this all for next year and see if I can regain back some of the thrill I use to have the nomination morning. To paraphrase the Dowager Countess - All this talking ... it's highly overrated.
Nat: Well, Birdman does have that one guy at the beginning, so that's one. Then Imitation Game text includes a (not fully accurate) text blurb of Turing's death and Whiplash has monologues and verbal plot twists about how a person died. Let's call both of those .5 of an onscreen death. And then, finally, we have Boyhood and The Theory of Everything, which have 0.
Definitely FOXCATCHER. Maybe INTERSTELLER or NIGHTCRAWLER for the 10th. Maybe even IDA.
Can we resurrect the Oscar appetizers post from last year? I am hosting an Oscar party again and would really like to get some punny ideas from this crowd.
Such an anemic response proves that some of us are definitely tired of campaign season.
I have been taking a break from it by watching non oscar films on dvd or on demand, It has proved to be a good palette cleanser. "Le Weekend" & "Love is Strange", and others.
I have also been dipping into the back catalogues of Keira Knightley and Julianne Moore.
Watching "Savage Grace" and "The Duchess" was very interesting. Knightley has assembled a very feminist filmography although no one ever seems to notice.
The one thing I'm really holding onto is how happy it will make me to see Julianne Moore win that Oscar.
The almost snubbing of the brilliant Selma and the over the top unjustified rewarding of the woeful American Sniper has me less excited this year.
I'll watch the telecast of course and I am preparing myself for American Sniper to win Best Pic and Bradley Cooper probably winning Best Actor.
I am gonna double glaze my tv screen first - just in case I throw a few bricks at it if American Sniper does win big awards.
We don't know who'll win best picture -- that makes for an exciting Oscar ceremony.
Plus, I always get excited for categories like cinematography, production design and costumes, and I wind up shushing people at my Oscar party who are just biding time for the big categories.
LadyEdith -- You're awesome!
Bette Streep: don't fret so! I don't think American Sniper will win Best Pic - not by a long shot - and I doubt Bradley Cooper will win Best Actor. I think in the former category it's def a Birdman/Boyhood smackdown, and in the latter it's mostly between Redmayne/Keaton. But we shall see.
I'm just excited for Julianne Moore to finally win an Oscar, and excited that Patricia Arquette is going to win too. Deserved wins and I love both of them so much as actresses and people. Those are the main categories I care about each year so as long as I have those to look forward to, I'm all good. I feel very confident that they'll both win, but still crossing my fingers.
The year Jennifer Lawrence and Anne Hathaway won was not a good one for me. I wasn't the least bit excited about even one of the presumed acting winners.
Philip H: in so many recent years the Supporting Actress category has been a lock, and in so many of those years I didn't think the "lock" deserved the award - def not Jennifer Hudson, not Renee Zellweger, not Penelope Cruz, and not Catherine Zeta-Jones (Monique, on the other hand, scared me to death in Precious and I feel richly deserved the gold). More neutral on Octavia Spencer and Anne Hathaway, though again, they were total locks, as I recall. I believe Lupita Nyongo was not such a sure thing last year, but I was happy for her win - she was heartbreaking 12 Years.
Back in the 90's it seemed like this category was much more of a wild card: Marissa Tomei, Anna Paquin & Juliette Binoche were all huge upsets.
I've always watched since I began loving movies, and probably will never stop watching until they stop televising it.
I don't get as excited about the show as I used to when I was a teenager, and I certainly don't take it to heart when my favorite doesn't win. These days, I view it as an entertaining diversion on a Sunday night.
I will say, though, that this year had a lot of potential. Many races are extremely close and unpredictable, and a lot of great movies are up for awards. But NPH is the most boring host imaginable, and he absolutely lacks any edge or excitement. Sure, he can dance and sing and cater to the senior citizens, but most people will be bored to death by him. I'm one of them. Bring back Chris Rock or someone with a little more bite. The presenters, as well, seem generic. They always have the opportunity to invite legends and instead go for the same old washed up stars of today like JLO.