Oscar Whisperer: Have we seen any nominees yet?
Saturday, March 19, 2016 at 6:00PM 
Though we all know that the bulk of Oscar nominations come from the last quarter of each and every year, have we seen any awards players yet? Here's a tricky thing about punditry -- if you start too early people say you're part of the problem in "narrowing" the field but if you don't start early how are you going to be of service in keeping the entire year in play and offering perspective on which film should be watched so that it's not all about "cramming" at the end of the year which leads to all that last quarter focus. So we start early. Here are first quarter possibilities if the Academy has longer memories than usual this year and if they surprisingly generate excitement later in the year by way of top ten lists or second wave releases (Bluray, streamin, etc...)
January
Kung Fu Panda 3 (Animated Feature)
Both of the previous films about the round warrior "Po" (Jack Black) were nominated for Best Animated Feature. Will Dreamworks go 3 for 3 with this series? The reviews are right in line with those of the previous films but franchises often outstay their welcome when it comes to "Best of Year" accolades.
The costumes in Hail Caesar (courtesy of Mary Zophres) are great fun
February
Deadpool (Visual FX, Makeup and Hairstyling)
Hail Caesar! (Original Song "No Dames" and Any Category, really)
The WWitch (Sound, Supporting, and Any Category, really)
Deadpool will surely surface for the Saturn Awards but good luck with the standard awards bodies considering that superhero films don't fare well even in VFX nominations... and Deadpool is a bit bargain bin aesthetically, however popular it may be with audiences. An extreme longshot but it will surely attempt Oscar recognition in both VFX and Makeup bakeoffs.
As for Hail, Caesar! and The VVitch, they're the most prestigious of the year's mainstream releases thus far by way of being from beloved filmmakers or inspiring critical fervor, respectively. But will any voters remember them or take them seriously enough given traditional resistance to comedy and horror? The first step in taking any film seriously is to actually watch it; conscientous voters should watch these two films.
March
April and the Extraordinary World (Animated Feature)
Batman v Superman (Visual FX)
Krisha (Best Actress)
Zootopia (Animated Feature)
Hello My Name is Doris (Best Actress)
Zootopia is by far your best bet for early bird Oscar glory given the outstanding reviews and audience love and Disney being a power player in the animated feature category. Can Sally Field's Doris generate good Golden Globe will? Will Krisha develop a following (it won the Cassavettes at the Spirit Awards for 2015 but the Spirit Awards have different eligibility rules -- festival showings sometimes count for them).
Of the two attempts at reviving the Superman franchise (Superman Returns in 2006 and Man of Steel in 2013) only Returns won Oscar favor (Visual FX nomination). Will Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice be ignored or embraced for its effects? It all depends on its future competition but it's worth noting that, for whatever reason, Batman is the favorite superhero of groups that traditionally resist superheroes. Batman films have won 3 Oscars from 15 nominations.
What will you hope for or count on from the first quarter?
Reader Comments (32)
What do we make of Embrace of the Serpent? Is this The Emigrants: Foreign Language '72, Best Picture '73? Help.
Robert Carlyle's black comedy The Legend of Barney Thomson might just slip through the cracks here (it had a quiet North American release this month). But Emma Thompson's pretty spectacular in it ; the performance has already netted her a couple of film awards in the U.K.. Check out the trailer and I think you'll agree she's working at Oscar level here.
If there was any justice, The Witch would get a bunch of nominations, and Alden Ehrenreich would be a sure thing.
Based on performance alone, we could see John Goodman get into supporting actor for 10 Cloverfield Lane. It would be an uphill battle getting voters to see it, but Goodman is showy and gets to control the movie in a way that's reminiscent of JK Simmons in Whiplash, and John Goodman has been due for Oscar recognition since 1991. I truly believe it could happn. If the movie was any less genre-y, I have no doubt Goodman could've been an early frontrunner.
Roger - they don't allow double nominated years anymore so since Embrace of the Serpent was nominated in foreign film it is out of the running for 2016, even though that's when it was released. If it had missed the nomination it would have been eligible in all categories this year due to the US release.
Roger: Unfortunately there's now a rule to prevent that happening: if a film has been nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, it cannot be nominated in any category in any subsequent awards year. When it happened to The Emigrants (and a few other films in the '60s and '70s), the rules were different. Heck, one film - Marriage Italian-Style - even got its Foreign Language nomination a year AFTER getting nominated for Best Actress.
Films that are submitted for Foreign Film but NOT nominated ARE eligible for other categories the following year (as long as the have the standard qualifying run etc.). I think that the most film to achieve nominations a year after having not been nominated in the Foreign Language category was City of God. Clever Mr. Weinstein!
P.S. Sorry for all the capitals. Not sure how to do italics here!
Ahh, Nathaniel beat me to it! Great minds etc...
Like Duncan, I think 10 Cloverfield Lane is also Oscar-worthy... but with Mary Elizabeth Winstead. I'll be using her as the standard all ladies will have to pass this year (good luck). Of course Oscars would NEVER, but we shouldn't let us stop praising these kinds of performances whenever we can!
Are you not buying the John Goodman love?
I know that being a genre piece it's an extreme long-shot, but surely it's still part of the conversation.
The Simmons comparison is interesting, but the closest analogue I thought of while watching John Goodman in 10 Cloverfield Lane was Kathy Bates in Misery. It was similarly impressive work and I definitely hope it gets some recognition come awards season.
I have yet to see Hail Caesar! I do plan to, but don't know about its awards chances. I see it picking up a few, but it seems to be pretty devisive. I literally had a few friends of mine after seeing it think that it was awful. Though it has had a pretty warm critical reception.
ZOOTOPIA already feels like a lock for animated feature nominated, yes? Early release be damned, the reviews are too good and unlike THE LEGO MOVIE it doesn't have the weirdness of essentially being a commercial tie-in in feature length form.
I'd like to hope the costumes of HAIL, CAESAR will be in discussion. I can see a few critics groups going with Ehrenreich for a nomination (maybe a Kristen Stewart style surprise throughout the season?), but can't see it getting much serious Oscar attention.
Of course, whether Oscar goes for any of these or not, critics organisations will likely show up for some first quarter releases including foreign language titles like SERPENT, RAMS, and maybe even MOUNTAINS MAY DEPART. Even though the latter two didn't get Oscar noms (Mountains wasn't even submitted by China, obviously), they're probably a bit too out of Oscar's gaze despite their ultimate eligibility this year. We do get these foreign language successes a year later though. Just last year TIMBUKTU was winning tons of awards despite being an Oscar nominee a year earlier.
All three performances in 10 Cloverfield Lane are fantastic!
Definitely see the comparison to Kathy Bates' work in Misery, Jonny. It's hard not to imagine it being high on my ballot at the end of the year, I only hope other people would be persuaded to watch it.
Ryan T. - Mary Elizabeth Winstead is also phenomenal in the film, but considering she's mostly unknown in filmgoer circles, and not as showy as John Goodman, her chances seem mostly nil. Definitely on my ballot, but hard to see her finding success.
In your opinion, which performance from Hail, Caesar! is most deserving of entering the conversation?
Glenn Dunks: Honestly, I don't think The Lego Movie missed because it was a commercial tie-in. It missed because the franchise it was selling meant it was using a lot of intentionally stiff animation and posing. Animators LOVE fluidity and naturalism of movement, so something that wasn't a commercial tie-in that looked like The Lego Movie STILL wouldn't have been nominated.
Give it to Hobie!
The only one for SURE is "Zootopia". Its Animated Feature slot is most likely locked in and good to go for next year. "Deadpool" could make the Makeup bakeoff's, I think. Ryan Reynolds COULD try for a Musical/Comedy Actor Globe nom but the Globes don't seem to like superhero movies. "Hail, Caesar!" could make the Globes as well. I do hope that Alden Ehrenreich gets pushed for Supporting Actor.
Yes! Alden Ehrenreich for BSActor, please!
I'm just sad that the Academy changed the rules so that Only Yesterday couldn't be qualified for the Oscar. I'd have liked to have seen it in play for Best Animated Feature.
"The Witch" is a good but a bit over rated- Hollywood loves movies about itself- and "Hail Caesar" is glorious fun
The Witch, Hail Caesar, and 10 Cloverfield Lane should all get consideration for multiple categories.
I love the comparison of Goodman to Bates in Misery, it's so weird that he hasn't been nominated yet.
I would like to see a production design nom for Hail, Caesar! So many sets of sets (!) of different genre films.
And Ehrenreich was top notch. Given that the final Supporting Actor field usually includes more than its fair share of uninspired, career-based nominations, I feel like his performance could very well still be one of the best of the year once we seen this year's crop of contenders. While I think it will be high on my list by year's end, an actual nomination feels unlikely and an uphill battle. So, let's start it now: REMEMBER HOBIE!
Agreed that The Lego Movie missed because of the type of animation it used, but I also think part of it might have been because it did have some live action scenes (with Will Ferrell etc.). I think the animators hate that.
Is My Beautiful Broken Brain going to be eligible in Documentary for 2016? Netflix is distributing it (just went up, actually) and they've had good luck in the Documentary category before. I can see it making it into the top 9, if not the final 5. Might be a bit too odd for the final 5.
Zootopia seems like a sure thing for an Animated Film nomination at this point.
Deadpool could get in for Makeup and make the bakeoff for Special Effects. The practical makeup and digital makeup were both top quality. So much of the film featured digitally constructed backgrounds. While not the most elegant, they worked very well in the style of the film.
I can't see The Witch or 10 Cloverfield Lane getting mainstream awards attention, but they're going to pop up again and again in the critics groups.
Glenn, Mountains May Depart wasn't released it China until October, which makes it eligible for submission in the 2016 Foreign Language race, not the one that just passed. I'm crossing my fingers that China submits it.
I too would be down for Hobie as a Supporting Actor nominee, but I'm not holding my breath about it.
Katie Holmes and Luke Kirby are both great in Touched with Fire.
Alden Ehrenreich!!
Hail, Caesar! will certainly be one of my favorite movies of the year, but I can't begin to hope it will be considered for Oscars. Deakins might be in the running for a nod, though. And the Channing Tatum number should get a nod for Best Original Song (I assume it's eligible), though I doubt they'll be that creative.
The Witch won't get any Oscar recognition, the academy frankly just isn't that smart or imaginative. It's a finely made film, and I agree that it will get lots of deserved year-end critical recognition. Hail Cesar has some great moments (that "Would that it were" scene between Ralph Fiennes and Alden Ehrenreich just slays me) but I think it's too slight and frankly too oddball to gain any real traction.
This is never going to happen and frankly I don't even wish it on her because she deserves so much better, but Jennifer Garner is so great in Miracles from Heaven. The movie is not good but if we live in a world where Sandra Bullock can WIN for The Blindside Jennifer Garner should be at least considered for a nomination.