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« Soundtracking: The "Alone Yet Not Alone" Snafu | Main | Sundance: Keira Knightley has "Official Secrets" »
Tuesday
Jan292019

Who will win Supporting Actress? Who should win?

2018 may well go down in history as the most volatile supporting actress race since 2007 (wherein four different women won the 5 televised prizes: Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, and Oscar). If you'll recall that historic year, those five prizes went, in order, to Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Ruby Dee (American Gangster),and the final two went to Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton). The only Oscar nominee that year that didn't win a televised prize was little Saoirse Ronan (Atonement). Saoirse even lost the "Young Actress" prize at Critics Choice but she got the last laugh, already being considered a Great by her early twenties with two more nominations since then and momentum for a win should the right role come along and she's still just 24 years old...

That kind of volatility during awards season is how acting prizes should go since rare is the year where one performer is running circles around everyone else. Unless you're dealing with a Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine next-level type performance, one that will clearly go down in history as an all-timer there's absolutely no excuse not to spread the wealth! So far this year we've seen wins for Regina King at the first two shows, Emily Blunt at SAG, and we'll get a new winner at BAFTA since neither King nor Blunt are nominated. And then comes Oscar where it'll be either Adams, de Tavira, King, Stone, or Weisz. We're guaranteed at least three winners this season and we might even get four so that's very exciting! We still think Regina King will take the Oscar for a few different reasons, but anything might happen given the way the season has gone. If only the male acting categories could be as volatile!

On the freshly updated Best Supporting Actress Chart you'll see our theories on how each woman got nominated, trivia about the nominees, and you can vote daily on who SHOULD win. So check that out. And yes we will be doing a Supporting Actress Smackdown soon. 

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Reader Comments (69)

I feel conflicted. I think Rachel Weisz gave the best performance of all the nominees but I also believe she should be in leading category. I feel caught in a conundrum.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterTom G.

Deserves: Blake Lively!!!

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMallinckrodt

Rachel and Emma (really Leads) will split their votes, Adams was 'Meh', and de Tavira was fine but a very small part. Regina will take it. You Go Girl!

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterGeoff

I think Regina should and ultimately will take it, but I have this feeling Marina may surprise.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterKeelay!

This is hard! Everyone has a pro and con:
Regina - beloved actress BUT critically over-praised (my opinion) and in a film not overall liked
Rachel - delicious acting in a loved film BUT there will be vote splitting and how liked is she (yes, she has won before, but she has been overlooked many times since)?
Emma - fantastic acting in a loved film BUT again, vote splitting and is anyone eager to award her so soon?
Amy - respected actress and respected film BUT do they really love the film or her performance?
Marina - beloved film and exciting choice BUT is she going to get many votes? There is very little emotional connection to her personally which is an uphill climb (unless the performance is undeniable)

will most likely win - Regina
my personal vote (and not giving up hope) - Rachel

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBV

I'm still somewhat surprised and disappointed Michelle Yeoh missed out on a nomination. She's such an icon and people have been given career nominations and wins for far less impressive performances. Crazy Rich Asians was such a hit and cultural moment it seems strange not to recognize it all. I would personally nominate it for costume design and art direction as well.

My vote goes to Regina King. I adored Stone and Weisz but it would be bizarre and dumb to see them win in supporting.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBrad

Still haven't managed to see King or Adams, so so far Weisz would be my pick regardless of category fraud. She could get some love from BAFTA and take the Oscar, but King is still the closest thing to a frontrunner.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

This is such an interesting case. I tend to think that Regina Kong will still prevail, especially because of her critical support and just being a really nice lady who does well with academies (3 emmys in 4 years, two of those wins were a bit of surprise).

However, after watching her performance it doesn’t scream “LOCK” to me. I think we could easily see Rachel Weisz take this, Sally Field style. She’s seemingly well like, gives a delicious performance that is the only one in her film that could be considered supporting, and she seems to be well respected.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJoe

To those rooting against Amy Adams this season it will bite you when she does get her overdue over a worthier slate not just a rival nominee.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

King isn’t winning the Oscar. For Best Supporting Actress this year, whoever wins the BAFTA will win the Oscar. This is 2015 Best Supporting Actor all over again. The parallels are undeniable. Stallone = King (wins both BFCA & GG, but no SAG nom & BAFTA nom). Elba = Blunt (wins SAG, but not nominated at Oscars). And Rylance = ???? (wins the BAFTA, goes on to win the Oscar). So who will take the BAFTA? A lot of people are predicting Weisz currently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Adams took it either. We shall see.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterLesley L

@Lesley L: Yes, there are parallels so far but that doesn't necessarily mean it will end the same way. Both 2015 and this year are unusual situations.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Man, I wish Lady Bird had come out this year. Laurie Metcalf could have dominated in a race this vague.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMike

Man, I wish Mother had come out this year. PFEIFFER could have dominated in a race this vague.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAlex

I hope Marina de Tavira wins. Beautiful, complex, captivating work.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterEric

Stone's performance is so far above the rest of this category in terms of quality....but that would be one of the Oscars' more ridiculous wins for the obvious reasons everyone's pointing out.

Weisz is also very good, and I'm slowly coming around to the notion that she could potentially conceivably be considered supporting in the context of which throughlines the story ultimately favours. But instinctively, it's hard to look at her as anything other than a lead. And also just instinctively, it's hard for me to look at Weisz as an actress worthy of not only one but two Oscars.

The other three performances are all solid to serviceable, and thoroughly unspectacular.

De Tavira is a bit spotty - in the early scenes especially she overdoes it a bit in a way that jars with the naturalistic tone.

And I've already said multiple times here that King is doing nothing particularly inspired or creative over and above the script's demands.

And Amy is fine (and third-best in this category) but also relatively uninventive. This isn't even one of her Top 12 performances and she's bound to give at least another 12 superior performances in the near future, so this would be a supremely blah win as such.

I wonder if even she herself is inwardly praying she doesn't win this year. Or has she been campaigning a lot?

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered Commentergoran

It's still pretty wild to me just how many actresses were in the mix, all left out in favor of Marina (great as she is)...
Robbie, Foy with other key nominations, Blunt with a lead role in a big year, McKenzie with her lead role, Cardellini in her big movie, and Kidman, Yeoh and Debicki all losing steam despite high praise.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

If Rachel and Emma weren't considered leads, I would easily vote for them over the rest. Their performances were way superior to that of Amy, Regina and Marina. Speaking of Regina, I'm just doing much head-scratching as to how she has managed to sweep most of the critics' awards. I've seen the movie and I thought she was just serviceable. But it looks like there's no stopping her at the Oscar. What a pity.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJans

Adams' BAFTA record is no joke. She's been nominated 7 times in 10 years.

What about the other three years, you ask? Here's what she made:

2009: Julie & Julia
2011: The Muppets
2015: *nothing*

My gut says Weisz but don't be shocked if Adams wins.

January 29, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterVR

It would be nifty if de Tivera won just for the shock of it all. And the Academy (plus its largest body, the actors) clearly love the movie. It could either be a part of a mini-sweep (pic, dir, cinematog, supp actress, foreign).

I reckon King will take it though, but Weisz feels like a stronger contender than maybe originally thought. If they really do like Vice as much as it seems and don't want it to go home empy-handed then they also have actor and make-up.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Marina de Tavira gave by far the most affecting performance of this group. Complicated, messy, kind, stern, empathetic, depressed. She sells all of it.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSteve

An interesting stat I recently realized: this is the first year since 2011 that two Supporting Actress nominees come from the same film. This is notable because it was SUPER common in the 2000s when it happened in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, and 2009, then 2010. Whew. So all together that's NINE times in the last 19 years! For Supporting men? Only once...

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJonathan

I see Alicia Vikander's photo on the banner over the Supporting Actress page and I just shudder. Most forgettable winner in this category this century. Sometimes the Academy gets it so wrong.

This year, the betting odds are on King but if Weisz wins BAFTA those odds will shift.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHustler

The race looks like there’s no clear front runner at this point, I’m going to say this again I think Marina is winning, because they love Roma... I don’t think Regina is winning, the movie was not nominated for director or picture, all of the others are, they have important nominations all of them, I think she made the cut in 5th place and just because Emily Blunt split votes with herself neither Kidman or Foy movies lack interest, in the other hand Adams, Weisz and Stone where safe choices all season long, De Tavira was a wild card because she is foreigner, she was not eligible for SAG because she’s not a guild member and BAFTAs went British/commonwealth: Foy, Weisz and Robbie and the de facto Adams and Stone... and let’s be honest here Netflix campaign has been about Cuaron, the film and Aparcio’s charm, they never took Marina chances seriously, no one did, the campaign was something that Cuaron did for his leading ladies and since the film and Cuaron are so loved by the industry at this moment I think Marina enter that race in 1st place and I think she is the silently performing and amazing campaign, plus the academy wants to show diversity so if they can reward someone black ( they’ve done that several times) they will probably take the chance to give a Latina an Oscar making her the second Latina in the 91 years of the ceremony to win an Oscar and that will send a much stronger message about inclusion and diversity.. Roma is available for everyone to watch it when they want, meanwhile apparently no one has enough support, Weisz and Stone are splitting the vote, they will probably wait to reward Adams later and as I said before Regina’s movie didn’t convince them .. with that being said:
I think Marina is going to surprise with a winning, and if I’m wrong this is a Weisz vs Adams race

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterValentinaYouareBeautiful

To the above, Marina wasn't ineligible for SAG. She was eligible but not nominated.

Parallels to 2015 are indeed uncanny but you can never say the seasons are exactly the same for a multitude of reasons. Stallone is allegedly disliked by his peers, King is adored (as evidenced by her standing ovations and Emmys). Stallone was not perceived as a serious actor, or even a particularly good one. His nomination was the vindication for decades of bad work. King is a character actress with a strong body of work, much more akin to Allison Janney or J.K. Simmons. Stallone was Creed's only nomination, hard to pull off wins that way. King's film isn't a BP nominee, but it's a movie more voters are likely checking out than they did with Creed.

Perhaps the strongest similarities are in the competition. Stallone, a "sellout actor" was up against Mark Rylance, possibly the most respected theatre actor. And Rylance, unlike Stallone was in a BP nominee with several recognitions. Akin to Weisz, De Tavira, Adams and Stone. Of course, unlike Rylance, two of those women have won and one of them is a foreigner in a performance not given in English.

So again, similarities but not quite the same. Adams can still do it (or I guess whoever wins BAFTA, which I imagine will be Weisz) but she needs to start winning stuff. There doesn't quite seem to be any passion for her work, otherwise there's no reason why the six time nominee hasn't been able to build an overdue narrative this late in the game.

I'm not sold but still hoping for Regina, whose luminous work in If Beale Street Could Talk would be among the best winners this category has seen in decades.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAlex D

I do wonder, when did Rachel Weisz become the biggest challenger in this race as opposed to, say, Emma Stone or Marina de Tavira? To my recollection, there’s been nothing Weisz has won this season that would warrant putting her in such a frontrunner position (as many commenters here are). Is it just that she’s British and the BAFTAs are the last big precursor, so people assume she’s winning that? Just curious about it, so if anyone has an explanation, please let me know. Non-Brits wins at the BAFTAs all the time, fwiw.

My personal take as to who I think is winning: Emily Blunt winning SAG means King probably takes it. Those Emmy wins were just the undercard for the main event. And does BAFTA really mean anything to the Oscars anymore with this much different Academy membership?

Also, what a category for women in their 40s! I didn’t realize how close in age many of the nominees are.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSteve

I love Regina’s performance but I hope she takes it even more after some of the comments on this site the past few weeks. “How dare others like her work in this movie? What’s the big deal? She’s so basic in it; blah blah blah.” If a performance doesn’t click for you in the same way it does for others, that’s totally fine. HOWEVER, the condescension and indignation with which she’s mentioned when she seems like one of the loveliest people in Hollywood is wholly unnecessary.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMJ

Steve- Weisz is the BAFTA favorite given that she won the BIFA and the London Film Critics. Also she has yet to win a BAFTA so she doesn’t have the same stigma of already being a winner like she does with Oscar. I believe she also has more regional prizes than the others...5 or so. A pittance compared to King and her 20+ but it’s more than the other contenders. I’m not saying she is winning but she is probably the runner up at least. Adams hasn’t managed anything major stateside, her only win is in Kansas City. I highly doubt across the pond is where she picks up steam.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterNic

Wasn't Amy Adams in McKay's Talladega Nights? This is the second time she's worked with him, too.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMike B.

How funny would it be if Foy or Robbie won Bafta?

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMya

MJ - King is indeed lovely, sorely underused in movies, and I've liked her performances every other time I've seen her - especially in American Crime, in which she rises above already excellent material. So the bias, condescention and indignation you may be reading into my post is completely projected.

In fact I actually very much want King to win (or de Tavira) so it's not like I'm even remotely rooting against her. Just stating my opinion of what I find to be a very perfunctory performance getting Waltz/Mo'nique/2009 levels of breathless feverish adulation which in this case seem wholly unwarranted.

For what it's worth I feel similarly about Richard E. Grant - though in that case at least I can see where the fuss is coming from because his dialogue is so showy and a lot of people are mistaking meaty material for meaty character work (*in my opinion* *disclaimer* *I have no personal beef with Richard E. Grant whatsoever* *I am sure he is lovely* *how very dare I question consensus*)

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commentergoran

The Roma actress could Marisa Tomei it. She seems the least likely on paper but the category's front runner King is vulnerable. Also, Emma Stone will not be getting votes for a win here after winning Best Actress from her previous nomination. That would essentially end her. Weisz winning again would not hurt. She feels underrated simply for not getting any Academy traction since winning. Everyone in precursor ville feels comfortable with Amy Adams returning to award season denying her wins for Vice.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Even though I technically believe Weisz and Stone are better, they’re leads, so I am rooting for King!

Truthfully, I’d be happy with any winning, except Adams. Lol. I love her, but that film is so awful and she’s fine at best.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRoger

Loved the 2007 race. I think I'm a De Tavira voter.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

I am hoping Wiesz pulls a Tilda.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

It sounds like /3rtful is protecting himself from the (slight imo) chance of disappointment from King losing by being extra sceptical. Tis cute.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterLeshawn

This is really an exciting race, issnt it? 😁

U can make a case on all five nominees, judging from the huge supports fr the comments section here for the various nominees.

Is King really the frontrunner? Is Amy really outta the race? Did Stone n Weisz really split the votes among them? Can Marina Gay Harden her way to a shockin win?? 😂

I tink it all boils down which actress film r most liked/admired by the voters n King has the disadvantage tt Beale Street din catch as much heat as one hope n the SAG n Bafta snubs do hurt her chances alots.

I kinda agreed at this juncture whoever win at Bafta will repeat the win at Oscars n Weisz certainly stands in good shape now as she's the bafta frontrunner now + voters might honour one o the Fav girls in view tt Colman is likely not winning.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

I am glad to see many now see King is not the frontrunner. Weisz is my pick (she has never won BAFTA after all...)

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

I agree with Hustler that the Academy does get some categories very wrong. In Best Picture there have been some real crap winning eg. Rain Man, Gladiator, A Beauitful Mind, Crash, Million Dollar Baby and No country for old men. How I sat through these films and wondered what the hell were the Academy thinking.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBette Streep

goran - I appreciate your response; I fully believe there was no malice intended on your part and didn’t name any names because it’s difficult to recall which comments sparked my initial ire. But there is a faction of people on this site who seem to direct their frustration at actors for receiving praise and winning awards if they have another horse in the race, so to speak. It’s probably just stan culture rearing its ugly head.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMJ

Wouldn't it be great to get the turnout demographics a week after the ceremony?

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Rachel could win like Tilda and take BAFTA/Oscar with the UK voting bloc.

Tilda also won because it was also the only place to honour best picture nominee Michael Clayton just as Mark Rylance won in the same way for Bridge of Spies.

So if The Favourite isn't going to take costumes or prod design and that goes to Black Panther and original screenplay goes to Green Book, Rachel Weisz could be the win for The Favourite. Yes - she has a split vote with her co-star but she also has the UK voting bloc perhaps.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph

Best Actress tangent: Has anyone brought up the fact that the UK voting bloc could also go with Olivia Colman? If the logic stands that Rachel Weisz could benefit from that - and Colman has won just about every BAFTA she’s ever been up for in addition to most critics’ awards this year - why isn’t that being discussed more as a likely upset in the other category? I know everyone is rooting for Glenn Close (who’s very good in her film), but that seems like the no-brainer option to me for people who may not have the allegiance to Close that SAG and American voters do.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMJ

Rachel Weisz. Yes,it's possible category fraud, but none of the three "real" supporting performances were at all impressive, especially Regina King's.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterken s.

King will win. De Tavira should triumph.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterAndrew Carden

Tilda richly deserved her win. But she won because no one was strong enough to beat her.

Blanchett's role was gimmicky and she had won a BSA Oscar three years prior.
Dee's performance was *very* limited and mostly a career honor from SAG.
Ryan never broke out as a star; her performance was well liked but she didn't really pop on the trail.

King is basically Blanchett (starpower!), Dee (a beloved career!) and Ryan (overwhelming critics support) rolled into one. With none of the above drawbacks. So Weisz or Adams will have a tougher time beating her than Tilda had in 2007.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterVR

@MJ

BAFTA is known to rubber stamp front runners.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

BAFTA also didn't even nominate Melissa Leo the year she won, despite seeing The Fighter and giving her costars nominations. Weird omissions happen from time to time. People weren't seriously thinking "Will HBC take the win?"

I know Leo had the SAG, too. But this year nobody has the SAG. They couldn't bring themselves to pick one of King's main rivals.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterVR

Exactly! and they ignored Colman in Tyrannosaur, Spall in Mr. Turner and Redgrave in basically everything so they're not that British-centric.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

This is a tough one to call. I think the only one who doesn't have much of a chance is Emma Stone because she's young and she's won so recently.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterCash

MJ - long gone are the days when BAFTA voters diverged from consensus (be that through British Bias, treating Foreign Language films and their talent as equal to English Language or actually, you know, voting for films and performers who made a contribution to UK culture in the year being recognised). There has not been a British Best Actress winner for almost 10 years - even then, the Oscar winner Sandra Bullock was ineligible!

Olivia's chances are greater than most (British National Treasure, likely contender for the Oscar win) but I'm not sure it's enough to take down Glenn (who is also in a British film and has never won a BAFTA before and recently spent a Summer in London winning raves and an Olivier nomination for Sunset Blvd redux).

Basically, I think BAFTA remains Glenn's to lose.

January 30, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

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