Who will win Supporting Actress? Who should win?
Tuesday, January 29, 2019 at 8:00PM 
2018 may well go down in history as the most volatile supporting actress race since 2007 (wherein four different women won the 5 televised prizes: Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA, and Oscar). If you'll recall that historic year, those five prizes went, in order, to Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Ruby Dee (American Gangster),and the final two went to Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton). The only Oscar nominee that year that didn't win a televised prize was little Saoirse Ronan (Atonement). Saoirse even lost the "Young Actress" prize at Critics Choice but she got the last laugh, already being considered a Great by her early twenties with two more nominations since then and momentum for a win should the right role come along and she's still just 24 years old...
That kind of volatility during awards season is how acting prizes should go since rare is the year where one performer is running circles around everyone else. Unless you're dealing with a Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine next-level type performance, one that will clearly go down in history as an all-timer there's absolutely no excuse not to spread the wealth! So far this year we've seen wins for Regina King at the first two shows, Emily Blunt at SAG, and we'll get a new winner at BAFTA since neither King nor Blunt are nominated. And then comes Oscar where it'll be either Adams, de Tavira, King, Stone, or Weisz. We're guaranteed at least three winners this season and we might even get four so that's very exciting! We still think Regina King will take the Oscar for a few different reasons, but anything might happen given the way the season has gone. If only the male acting categories could be as volatile!
On the freshly updated Best Supporting Actress Chart you'll see our theories on how each woman got nominated, trivia about the nominees, and you can vote daily on who SHOULD win. So check that out. And yes we will be doing a Supporting Actress Smackdown soon.
Reader Comments (69)
I know I'm just being a pedant but Marina de Tavira's percentages of how she got nominated add up to 104%.
I don't think all the Brits will vote for Weisz but it's not crazy to think that all the Spanish voters will vote for Tavira.
re: BAFTA Best Actress. The evidence given in previous comments for either a Colman or Close win is sound. It will be interesting to see if they still would like to award the British national treasure (who happens to be amazing in her film) or the Oscar frontrunner (who happens to be amazing in her film). BAFTA has been on a winning streak predicting in this category, so I'm leaning towards the latter, but wouldn't be surprised either way.
Sakura Andô should win. Too bad she didn't have Amazon running her campaign.
*I meant Netflix. They all run together.
In order of likelihood:
1. King
2. Weisz
3. de Tavira
4. Adams
5. Stone
Personal choices:
1. Danai Gurira - Black Panther
2. Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased
3. Tessa Thompson - Sorry to Bother You
4. Mackenzie Davis - Tully
5. Elizabeth Debicki - Widows
With Cuarón the frontrunner to win Director, the situation is different from 2007. BSA was the only category where Michael Clayton wasn't a distant third to either There Will Be Blood or No Country for Old Men. I think King wins with a slight chance that Adams surprises if Academy members feel it is about time Amy finally wins.
I think Best Actor might be the category that offers an upset this year. I'm going out on a limb and say Willem Dafoe shocks and wins.
The Academy stays getting it wrong in this category. The only good win in this category for this past decade is Viola Davis.
I think those rooting against Adams have never seen the real Lynne Chaney. Adams is doing subtle and perfect character work and that is why she is nominated. It's a very lived in realized portrayal of a real person and Adams also NAILS the Shakespeare scene. If you have doubts, please google interviews with the real Lynne Cheney and you will see.
People are actually upset with the performances because of that? Obviously the movie isn't popular and many are disliking it for the wrong reasons.
I don't dislike it, but I don't like it either.
Performances are all strong tho. Adams is very subtle and so is Bale.
King, Stone and Weisz are all pretty even for me in terms of my admiration for their performances but Stone and Weisz are so obviously leads that I have to go with King.
My own personal Supporting Actress list would be:
Sakura Andô, Shoplifter
Mackenzie Davis, Tully
Elizabeth Debicki, Widows
Jeon Jong-seo, Burning
Dolly Wells, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Someone mentioned a lack of passion for Amy Adams in Vice ... you think? lol.
If she was a threat to the win like everyone seems to think, SAG should've been a slam dunk win without Regina King there. Instead, Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place! lmao.
Regina King will win the Oscar. I could see Marina winning in a shocker. And Rachel Weisz does feel possible, assuming she gets the BAFTA, which is between her and Adams, but def in her favor (or should I say "favour" lol).
Yaaas! Re: Davis, Debicki and Wells. I'd boot Adams, Stone (lead) and Weisz (lead) for those three.
It really does seem like de Tavira, King *or* Weisz could win this year. Adams is a possibility, but Stone is out.
"I think those rooting against Adams have never seen the real Lynne Chaney."
If you have to see "the real person" to appreciate a performance in a biopic (to understand the extent of the mimicry!), it just isn't a very impressive performance.
No one had to watch videos of Abraham Lincoln to appreciate DDL's performance.
RayLewis1997 - Your Supp. Actress picks are spot-on! Jeon Jong-seo walks away with the first half of Burning (opposite the megawatt charisma of Steven Yeun, no less).
It’s strange that Amy Adams got previous nominations for costarring with three of this year’s Best Actor nominees—Bale (The Fighter and American Hustle), Cooper (American Hustle) and Malek (The Master).
Suzanne, people like you are the reason Rami Malek is going to win an Oscar this year for doing a bad odd impression of an actual person he clearly didn't know anything about.