Oscar Chart Updates: 5 Questions about the Actresses
Friday, August 9, 2019 at 10:02AM It was long past time for a revision of those April Foolish Oscar Predictions charts. ("That's an understatement," the readers scream in unison) so here we go, finally for early August. It's just a few weeks before things really get churning with the fall festivals. So here are ten questions that are on our mind now that we've finished updating the BEST ACTRESS and BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS charts - so check them out. And please to do your own speculation in the comments about these questions.
01. Will Scarlett Johansson finally get an Oscar nomination? Or TWO? She's got a lead actress bid with the buzzy Marriage Story and we know that Noah Baumbach is good with actors. But we still think she's more likely as the brave mother in Taiki Waitit's satire JoJo Rabbit. The hilarious thing about Scarlett is she's so underrated as an actor now -- given her years in franchiseland and her recent missteps in interviews -- that she might even qualify as a "I didn't know she had that in her" surprise type player... even if that's a case of willful amnesia about her talent...
02. Could Margot Robbie stay in the mix for Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood?
On the one hand this seems like much ado about nothing given her screentime and the fact that Margaret Qualley emerges as a rival for Best in Show, female division (and that little girl Julia Butters also steals a lengthy scene)... But on the other Robbie as Tate is a major talking point, it's an endearing performance, and if the film is a major player, she could easily coast in regardless of feelings about the actual quality of the role/performance.
03 How many non-white actresses will be nominated? We're predicting three currently in the two categories. The first two-black women nominated in lead since 1972 (which we think is likely even if it's not those exact two women) and an Asian woman in supporting. Now we freely admit that the latter is wishful thinking since Oscar has routinely ignored Asian women for 90 years, even when they've been in Best Picture nominees (think Crouching Tiger, The Last Emperor) or won precursor attention (think Hong Chau recently). But we're choosing to be optimistic because we do think The Farewell will snag a well-deserved Best Picture nomination. It's already accrued almost $8 million at the box office even though it's largely in Chinese and it's playing in the summer opposite superhero pictures and it hasn't even gone wide yet. It's likely to end 2019 as the highest grossing foreign-language film. But it's also an American picture which makes it easier for Oscar play.
04 How misleading OR accurate are current trailers? The trailer for Harriet highlights Janelle Monae in a major way and if it's a large role she's in a good career position to capitalize on it for an Oscar nomination. But is she really the largest role among that film's female supporting players (what about Harriet's mother for instance?) or so high up in billing / trailer emphasis because she's quite famous? It's possible that other players will have meatier roles. And speaking of cameo versus substantial 'who knows' problems of punditry: we only see Anna Paquin for a split second in The Irishman trailer. But what if the Oscar-winner's role is more substantial and she just isn't being highlighted because DeNiro & Pesci & Pacino directed by Scorsese is the obvious draw? AMPAS has often been very kind to the sole famous woman in an ensemble of men on their Oscar ballots.
05 Why do we have so little faith in Little Women? Looking around the web it appears that most pundits are predicting Greta Gerwig's take on the classic to be a big Oscar deal with nominations for Best Picture and Saoirse Ronan in lead and Meryl Streep in supporting but we can't quite get there. This is not the same as thinking it's not going to be good -- with Greta Gerwig behind it there's reason to hope it will be marvelous. It's just that it's been made several times already and Oscar (generally speaking) doesn't go crazy for remakes. Plus, none of the famous versions of Little Women have set the Oscars on fire: The very famous 1933 version received 3 nominations (Picture, Director, and won for Adapted Screenplay); the 1949 version received 2 nominations (Cinematography, and won for Art Direction); the popular 1994 version received 3 nominations (Actress, Costumes, Score, losing all of them). This will likely get a few random Oscar nods because it's so high profile... but not within the acting categories. What are we missing about this production that is inspiring so much faith in other pundits?
Reader Comments (63)
I NEEEEEED Zhao Shuzhen to be Oscar nominated. Her performance tore. me. up.
Imagine a best actress line up made up of any combination of the following Alfre Woodard, Cynthia Erivo, Awkwafina, Jodie Turner Smith, Lupita N’yongo, Gong Li.... it would never happen, but how fricking exciting would that be!!!
I hope Scarlet is snubbed, at least until her tour de force performance as a tree, especially so the douchey fanboys who call her ScarJo 3:16 (And nobody with worthy opinions ever has. It’s like the swatsica in it’s clear symbolising a persons true character) can stew and suck it.
I think one of the big questions this season is whether Marriage Story will be a hit with the Academy. I love Baumbach and think he is very overdue for Oscar attention. However, his movies have a singular tone and the Academy has never had much interest in it before (apart from his single screenplay nod). But Netflix seems really committed to the film and I don't recall any of his prior efforts having a campaign on that scale.
Suzanne -- agree that the Oscars just dont seem into Baumbach. But also how many films can Netflix really support in one Oscar season. To date they've only ever been able to successfully push ONE narrative feature and to mixed results (Mudbound in some categories... then Roma in lots of them but losing the top prize)
I'm kind of alarmed at how many worthy (ON PAPER) films Netflix has this year and how gung ho everyone is about predicting ALL of them. I just dont see that happening. Somethings gotta give.
Very surprised to see Mirren so high - the novel is quite trashy, I expect reviews to be mixed. She does have one scene that screams Oscar clip but otherwise it’s not a very interesting role - if the film follows the structure of the book, there is room for improvement though. McKellen has the flashy role.
Nathaniel - The film also appears to be a small-scale domestic drama with an all-white cast, and those aren't in vogue right now with Oscar. Usually when a long-respected indie director breaks through with the Oscars, they do so with something that seems bigger - Boyhood (a 12-year project) or The Grand Budapest Hotel (essentially a WWII story).
We'll see about Little Women, but I think Harriet will be an also-ran based on that trailer. Looks very basic, almost like a made for TV movie.
Four afrodescendent actress in the prediction plus two Asian-descendant?
Alfre Woodard - Lupita N'yongo - Cynthia Erivo - Jodie Turner Smith - Awkwafina - Gong Li
We die and go to heaven?
Would be HERSTORICAL!!!!
I am rooting for Kate Winslet / Susan Sarandon and France's McDormand, but, to be frank, I want Blackbird and Nomadland to be release next year and we could have this herstorical moment!
If happens, Gong Li will be my personal choice. Alfre Woodard in second place.
I would LOVE to see Lupita get in for "Us" but it doesn't have the cultural impact & staying power of "Get Out", which got Kaluuya to the table.
Kaluuya was great, but we wouldn't have predicted it even 3 months out - maybe Lupita can do something similar.
I heard that Isabelle Huppert's role in Frankie was memorable -- impactful despite reduced economies of scale. The Ira Sachs film got mixed reviews and I somehow felt that it must be because (aside from structural flaws) his films often lean on being offbeat -- the sort of films you watch more than once to fully immerse in its cinematic lifeworld. A friend who saw Frankie in Cannes said the film spoke about unspokens but very subtly told. But Huppert did well. I thought that since SPC will distribute it that it might gain traction? Or too quiet to make an impact? Or too flawed that performances will sink with it? Thoughts on anyone who saw it? Twould be great to see Huppert in the list of nominees again, preferably in the supporting category.
FYI: AGAINST ALL ENEMIES has been renamed SEBERG. (Both titles are a bit bland, so I guess I slightly prefer the new one as it at least puts the name of a forgotten star out there.)
I’m only here for Florence Pugh in Little Women. She’s been stellar in everything and Emmys blew it by not giving her a nom for Little Drummer Girl.