Nathaniel's Long Oscar Silence Ended. New Charts!
Monday, November 17, 2025 at 3:00PM by Nathaniel R
Remember when Steven Soderbergh retired and then started making movies at quite a clip just a couple of years later? I will probably not be doing that with writing *cries*. Nevertheless I am hoping that my 'semi-retirement' proves a bit more like La Pfeiffer's or other actresses of a certain age wherein I stick a toe back in -- sometimes a whole foot or leg -- whenever I miss it. Lately after a few highly enjoyable screenings / events, wherein I marvelled that I was still invited, I realized with deep embarassment that the Oscar charts had not been updated since the summer. So now all the charts are updated, each and every one. Take a look.
As you can see I am confident that One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Marty Supreme are the three behemoths in the upcoming race. I wish I wasn't predicting them to all hit double-digit nominations ("Spread the wealth!" being my eternal ignored command!) but I try to be 85% realistic in my predictions and that's how Oscar voters do...
The other 15% is for flights of fancy, overanalysis, pessimissm and its sunnier twin wishful thinking. There's still room to dream. Nothing is set in stone yet. It's only November. The Gotham Awards rang the starting bell on October 28th and today in LA the Governors Awards are happening. But in the almost three months between those milestones and the nominations (January 22nd, 2026) the winds will keep blowing in all sorts of directions in the hopes of steering voters every which way. Over the next week we'll be sharing conversations about the above-the-line races (thanks to Claudio & Eric for the push!) with Best Supporting Actress already behind us. I will also be sharing a three-part piece on fun stats, trivia, and factoids from the Best International Feature Film race and will continue to fine-tune the charts as FYC ads clear up some mysteries about who would be our nomines in say, "Sound" or "Makeup" or whatnot.
DECEMBER - MARCH CALENDAR
To remind everyone of the chaotic carnival of awards season which is nearly upon us.
DEC 1
Gotham Awards
DEC 3
NBR winners announced, Spirit Awards Nominees Announced
DEC 4-5
Critics Choice Award Nominations (Film & TV)
DEC 8
Golden Globe Nominees Announced (Film & TV)
DEC 8-12
Preliminary Oscar voting on Shortlists for the categories that use that process.
DEC 12
Costume Designers Guild Awards nominees
DEC 16
Oscar shortlists announcements in International Feature, Documentary Feature, all three Shorts categories and the craft categories that use that system.
DEC 29
MUAHS (Makeup and Hairstylists Giuld) Nominees Announced
Sunday JANUARY 4
Critics Choice Awards
JAN 7
SAG Nominees Announced
JAN 8
DGA (Directors) & ASC (Cinematography) Guild Nominations
JAN 9
PGA (Producers Guild Awards) Nominations, BAFTA Longslists released
JAN 10-11
"Bake Off" screenings for Casting, Makeup, Sound, Visual Effects to narrow down those shortlists...
SUNDAY JANUARY 11
83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards
JAN 12-16
Oscar Nomination Voting
JAN 13
VES (Visual Effects Society) Nominations
Saturday JAN 17
European Film Awards
JAN 20
CAS (Sound) Nominations
JAN 22
Oscar Nominees Announced
JAN 27
WGA (writers) nominations, BAFTA nominations, ACE (Editors) nominations
Sunday FEB 1
Grammy Awards
Sunday FEB 15
independent Spirit Awards
Sunday FEB 22
BAFTA Awards
FEB 26-MAR 5
Oscar Voting on Winners
SUNDAY MARCH 1
"The Actor Awards" (The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards)
SUNDAY MARCH 15
HOLLYWOOD'S HIGH HOLY NIGHT: THE 98TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS
Reader Comments (2)
What about the Razzies?
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