Nathaniel's Long Oscar Silence Ended. New Charts!
Monday, November 17, 2025 at 3:00PM by Nathaniel R
Remember when Steven Soderbergh retired and then started making movies at quite a clip just a couple of years later? I will probably not be doing that with writing *cries*. Nevertheless I am hoping that my 'semi-retirement' proves a bit more like La Pfeiffer's or other actresses of a certain age wherein I stick a toe back in -- sometimes a whole foot or leg -- whenever I miss it. Lately after a few highly enjoyable screenings / events, wherein I marvelled that I was still invited, I realized with deep embarassment that the Oscar charts had not been updated since the summer. So now all the charts are updated, each and every one. Take a look.
As you can see I am confident that One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Marty Supreme are the three behemoths in the upcoming race. I wish I wasn't predicting them to all hit double-digit nominations ("Spread the wealth!" being my eternal ignored command!) but I try to be 85% realistic in my predictions and that's how Oscar voters do...
The other 15% is for flights of fancy, overanalysis, pessimissm and its sunnier twin wishful thinking. There's still room to dream. Nothing is set in stone yet. It's only November. The Gotham Awards rang the starting bell on October 28th and today in LA the Governors Awards are happening. But in the almost three months between those milestones and the nominations (January 22nd, 2026) the winds will keep blowing in all sorts of directions in the hopes of steering voters every which way. Over the next week we'll be sharing conversations about the above-the-line races (thanks to Claudio & Eric for the push!) with Best Supporting Actress already behind us. I will also be sharing a three-part piece on fun stats, trivia, and factoids from the Best International Feature Film race and will continue to fine-tune the charts as FYC ads clear up some mysteries about who would be our nomines in say, "Sound" or "Makeup" or whatnot.
DECEMBER - MARCH CALENDAR
To remind everyone of the chaotic carnival of awards season which is nearly upon us.
DEC 1
Gotham Awards
DEC 3
NBR winners announced, Spirit Awards Nominees Announced
DEC 4-5
Critics Choice Award Nominations (Film & TV)
DEC 8
Golden Globe Nominees Announced (Film & TV)
DEC 8-12
Preliminary Oscar voting on Shortlists for the categories that use that process.
DEC 12
Costume Designers Guild Awards nominees
DEC 16
Oscar shortlists announcements in International Feature, Documentary Feature, all three Shorts categories and the craft categories that use that system.
DEC 29
MUAHS (Makeup and Hairstylists Giuld) Nominees Announced
Sunday JANUARY 4
Critics Choice Awards
JAN 7
SAG Nominees Announced
JAN 8
DGA (Directors) & ASC (Cinematography) Guild Nominations
JAN 9
PGA (Producers Guild Awards) Nominations, BAFTA Longslists released
JAN 10-11
"Bake Off" screenings for Casting, Makeup, Sound, Visual Effects to narrow down those shortlists...
SUNDAY JANUARY 11
83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards
JAN 12-16
Oscar Nomination Voting
JAN 13
VES (Visual Effects Society) Nominations
Saturday JAN 17
European Film Awards
JAN 20
CAS (Sound) Nominations
JAN 22
Oscar Nominees Announced
JAN 27
WGA (writers) nominations, BAFTA nominations, ACE (Editors) nominations
Sunday FEB 1
Grammy Awards
Sunday FEB 15
independent Spirit Awards
Sunday FEB 22
BAFTA Awards
FEB 26-MAR 5
Oscar Voting on Winners
SUNDAY MARCH 1
"The Actor Awards" (The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards)
SUNDAY MARCH 15
HOLLYWOOD'S HIGH HOLY NIGHT: THE 98TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS
Reader Comments (12)
What about the Razzies?
All due respect to the people keeping this site going and providing discussions,your voice is sorely missed.
Saw your updated 98th Academy Awards nominations predications and there were very good, but there are some suggestings I think you should do for the next update. For Best Visual Effects, I would replace Juarassic World Rebirth and TRON: Ares with Superman 2026 and Preadtor: Badlands seeing how the effects in those movies are better than the ones from Jurassic World Rebirth and TRON: Ares. Finally for Best Animated Feature, I would keep an eye on Arco seeing how it got better reviews than A Magnificent Life and would replace A Magnifcent Life with Arco, seeing how Arco is getting more talk.
On one hand I like that the Oscars are back in March like they were when I was a kid
On the other hand, what’s the point since nothing is in theaters longer than a month to build buzz and all the prestige pics go right to streaming anyways.
At this stage, the omissions of the two actresses from Wicked is certainly bold.
Nathaniel so happy to see you back! Also very happy to see Tessa Thompson in your predictions for Best Actress. I hope she makes it in.
PS: Are you going to release new episodes of the podcast in the future?
At this point I’m convinced that Tessa Thompson’s nomination only happens if Nina Hoss gets in as well. In fact, I think Hoss’ chances are better than Thompson’s.
Nathaniel! I have been reading your site since 2001. It's good to read a new article from you. Hope all is well.
I believe the following films are likely to make it into Best Pic:
OBAA
Hamnet
Sinners
Wicked 2
Marty Supreme
Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
The other three spots feel pretty up for grabs at the moment, probably coming down to:
Avatar 3
Frankenstein
Bugonia
Secret Agent
It Was Just An Accident
Other ones feel like longshots before precursors start. How many non-English films can make it in? I imagine 1-2 currently. Can Bugonia go the distance? Is the 3rd Avatar too much for Picture?
I seems like a bizarre year for best picture. Three horror films actively competing, three foreign film actively competing, two fantasy sequels competing- maybe they are embracing change this year.
GURL. I have missed you. Please stay with us as much as possible through the High Holy Season. Also, how can I donate more than $2.50 a month? I used to be on this site multiple times a day, back when things were crankin'. Not so much anymore. But over the years it's been such a pleasure in my life. Much support and gratitude.
I’m wondering what the Casting category will be like. Will it just be like a SAG ensemble nomination? One of the criteria could be “degree of difficulty”. Thinking of that criteria, I’d consider:
House of Dynamite.
Apparently there are over 130 speaking roles, each one has to look believable in their environment, and were apparently costumed with great accuracy.
Casting child actors. If they’re integral to the plot, it’s essential to find a good one.
- Hamnet. 3 kids, in another time period, crucial that little Hamnet is lovable. Extra points for casting the older Jupe brother as the actor playing Hamlet.
- Rental Family. The child must speak both English and Japanese, and be appealing yet show a resistant core. (Extra points for scoring a legendary Japanese actor Akira Emoto).
- Dust Bunny. Child is the central character and must make the fantasy believable. The rest of the cast is an ensemble of excellent actors.
Sinners.
A large cast, with a good mix of well known actors, less known actors, and serendipitous finds.
My Dead Friend Zoe.
Apparently 90% (?) of the people who worked on the movie are military veterans. A real effort for accuracy and truthfulness.
Nouvelle Vague.
Dozens of actors are chosen to be historical figures of the New Wave. They have to look somewhat like the real person, and convey that persons style, some of them only having a few seconds to do that. Fascinating.
So exciting to hear from you, Nathaniel! Thanks for the wonderful chart update.
My two cents: if we could get recordings of you and Nick discussing movies twice a year, it would make up for the writing retirement <3