Oscar Chart Updates: Two-Lead Men's Movies
Friday, August 9, 2019 at 3:00PM 
Robert Pattinson & Willem Dafoe in "The Lighthouse"
We're in for it with category fraud this year, y'all. Yes, we're in for it every year of course until something finally breaks within the Academy (disgruntled character actors stage a revolution, "do you hear the people sing singing the song of angry men..." c'mon SAG!) but 2019 in particular appears to be a film year with an unusual amount of two-leading-men films. We've got (arguably) The Lighthouse, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Two Popes, and maybe more. So we've opted to just kind of ignore the problem and assume we know who is going where in the BEST ACTOR and BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR chart updates though as always we wish the leading men would just stay in lead like they're supposed to. If it was good enough for Amadeus, it's good enough for you, people!
Having said all that we just realized we left Matt Damon (Ford v Ferrari) and Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse) off of either chart which is silly but not intentional. We'll squeeze them in somewhere as soon as we have a moment. What do you think of the new rankings? Any strong hunches this August?
Reader Comments (38)
I read on Twitter that Dafoe is going supporting.
Banderas is very uneven in Dolor y gloria but he has two killer scenes, one with Sbargalia and the other with Julieta Serrano, that will procure him the nomination. He ticks all the boxes: the latin box, the hottie turned into a mature/serious actor box, the indie/prestigious movie box, the omg you've been doing movies forever box...
Nathaniel, have you finally seen At Eternity's Gate?
I dunno about Pitt being unable to be nominated in Lead for his performance. Why? Unlike DiCaprio, who pretty much entirely gets observational bits in that movie, Pitt gets most of what could be called the plot. (Note: I loved the movie, but I'm not delusional about the pacing. It's NOT a plot oriented movie.) I'd actually expect the fraud to cut the other way. If we hear tales of Pitt assembling a shorter "just the plot" cut (in which case, DiCaprio's only fully necessary scene is establishing the flamethrower) to be sent along with the normal screener...? That's absolutely how the fraud is going to cut.
I think Pitt for sure will go supporting. Not just for how DiCaprio is front and center but he also has Ad Astra. Not that he'll get anywhere near a nomination for that, but more reason to run a campaign in supporting while he runs a campaign in lead for that one.
I too have heard Pattinson is the one going lead and Dafoe supporting.
Dafoe should have won last year,he was beyond all the other 4 by miles.
There's a latin box? I wish it were checked more!
If Pitt goes supporting, I'll have the same post-Fences feeling--a win, and a conviction that a Lead nomination would have produced the same result.
Leading actor I think that could be
Ian McKellen (and awarded)
Antonio Banderas
Robert Pattinson
Joaquin Phoenix
Leonardo DiCaprio or Robert De Niro or Brad Pitt (Ad Astra)
Supporting actor I think could be
John Lightow
Willem Dafoe
Brad Pitt
Someone of The Irishman
Tom Hanks
As a Brazilian, I will root for The Lighthouse boys 'cause is an USA-BRA production, but Ian will be my vote forever!! If wasn't for him, Banderas and Lightow being on the talk, was a another boring year in this category.
I've read The Goldfinch (fabulous book, btw!) and Jeffrey Wright's role in the film version is a textbook example of what Oscar loves to award in the Supporting Actor category. Think Michael Caine in The Cider House Rules, so I feel strong about his inclusion in the shortlist.
Mendhelson and Taika nominates would warm my heart too.
No Brad Pitt this year and John Lithgow going lead (impossible! but this is the only way I could see Mendhelson - Waititi - Dafoe - Tom Hanks - The Irishman boys nominated!)
I actually like actors, but other than the Banderas and Matthew Rhys possibilities these are so boring. I hope something unexpected comes out of left field this season.
Just a small note: Jered Leto, also an Oscar winner, has played Joker. So we've seen 3 winners play him.
Eh I know there’s been worse fraud but I’m getting tired of this. The opening credits of OUATIH literally give DiCaprio and Pitt equal billing. I don’t see how Pitt is in any way a supporting character.
And again some of the placements (Hanks/Rhys; Pryce/Hopkins; Dafoe/Pattinson) are SO wrong. Really Nathaniel?
I've seen Dolor y Gloria and it's not only a very uneven movie, it never reaches much depth as the plot would suggest. Banderas has the two good scenes mentioned before, mostly because of the actors playing opposite him in those scenes. The rest of the performance is pretty one-note, not a lot going on behind his eyes. The art direction and costumes, usually memorable and organic in other Almodovar movies seems very in-your-face here. Almodovar seems to be writing books and not screenplays anymore. Maybe he should try that. This movie is no Roma.
From what I understand, Willem Dafoe is said to be going supporting, and Christian Bale might take the flashier-role-goes-supporting route opposite Matt Damon's straight man lead.
I would say in Lead Actor you may be under-estimating Adam Driver in Marriage Story and Michael B. Jordan in Just Mercy - the latter in particular has Jordan with a potentially meaty real-life role in a TIFF-bound drama from a respected director, and he's been on the verge of breaking big for a while.
Meanwhile in Supporting I would say don't underestimate Alan Alda in Marriage Story, it's supposed to be a fairly small role but if the film hits big (which I'm starting to think it might), he could be drawn along for the ride, as he has before.
Glad that I am not the only to think that the male actors categories become more and more boring, like the male roles (leading and supporting) as usual.
Duncan Dykes is giving me good prediction vibes esp Alda and Jordan but also Driver in Lead.
Marriage Story is maybe a critical darling.
Brad Pitt is officially going Supporting, according to Gold Derby.
I think the entire ensemble of Luce is going supporting. And Spencer remains its strongest prospect for an acting nod.
I think Dafoe has a nomination in the bag if he goes supporting; I thought that his loss for "The Florida Project" meant that they just don't love him (he has a good reputation but lives outside the country most of the time and doesn't seem to play the game very hard), but then that nomination for "At Eternity's Gate" when John David Washington was right there - in a BP nominee! They must just really love Dafoe. This is not commentary on quality, just politics/visibility.
I would love to see Kaluuya nominated again, his nomination for "Get Out" still makes me happy (as does his 'Actors on Actors' from that year with Chalamet) and I thought he was aces in "Widows". I'm just generally very excited for him.
I'm also wondering if John Lithgow is the kind of beloved character actor that sweeps to a win, but it depends on the movie - I still think that if "Love is Strange" had a higher visibility he would've been nominated.
Duncan -- i cant believe i forgot about the JUST MERCY update. Shall adjust accordingly.
Pitt makes sense as supporting. He plays a guy whose job is to literally support the main character, and he also has no real character arc. I'm okay with it.
Michael B. Jordan, Hanks and Streep have a lot of good buzz. Their movies are doing well at screenings.
Willem Dafoe is a surefire nominee and I suspect he'll finally win though Pitt could give him a run for the money if they're up against each other. Dafoe's Oscar clip is PURE GOLD.
I have a strong hunch that Taika Watiti also gets a nomination.
Colman and Ali should be the straw that broke the camel's back with regards to this unending category fraud...
Pete: Colman and Ali were arguable in both categories. For me, the worst examples have been Jamie Foxx in Collateral and Rooney Mara in Carol - they are their films' main characters!
Colman was in the right category. Are you all insane?
If Colman had frauded then a better performance that calendar year would not have been in Close’s way and her makeup Oscar (which past career should be considered even in best of blank year awards) and the universe would be at peace.
There's two problems with Colman: 1.) she took Glenn Close's award which some people just can't CAN'T get over, 2.) Weisz and Stone's supporting nominations make them look complicit in the "fraud". It's different from "The Hours" - when both Streep and Moore had rival films in contention...
As with Jamie Foxx, Alicia Vikander, Kate Winslet for that matter!
I'm not sold on Hanks yet. Had the Mr. Roger's documentary scored with the Academy last year, then maybe. However, he's had years of baity performances in awards-bait movies with nary a nod to show for it. It's possible the Academy just isn't into him anymore.
Jonathan -- but he gets as much screen time as Leo and has his own solo adventures!
Joan -- Yeah, Olivia Colman was in the right category last year. That was the rare case of a three lead film, all equally weighted in the narrative... though Colman is its centerpiece and Stone the plot mover. (so IF there is a supporting female it's not Colman but Weisz. But there's not a supporting female. They're all leads.
Absolutely agree. You should write a long article about category fraud.
Edward L said "Pete: Colman and Ali were arguable in both categories. For me, the worst examples have been Jamie Foxx in Collateral and Rooney Mara in Carol - they are their films' main characters!"
Another one I have bitched about is Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl. She was the leading lady of that (lackluster) film (that no one cared about then or now) and for her to win Supporting Actress was a slap in the face to hard-working character actresses everywhere. It still rankles me today.
Rob:
Alicia's nomination and win were clearly category fraud for The Danish Girl, but at least she was probably just crowding herself out for Ex Machina. That's the performance that should have been honored in the Supporting category.
Joan -- i think people are exhausted by me talking about it because i've been complaining for like 20 years. lol
3rtful: Unless she's in a very prominent and/or successful film (maybe Sunset Blvd?) I don't see Glenn Close ever winning that elusive Oscar. After all the inclusion debates and the #metoo movement, the Academy has invited MANY younger members, and members from other countries. The new members most likely didn't see The Wife, and don't care very much that this was Close's 7th nomination. We should forget about the "consolation" wins.
One curious info: Glenn Close and fellow eternal nominee Amy Adams are making a film together: Hillbilly Elegy.
Excited to see The Lighthouse. I'm getting Dreyer vibes from the movie stills. Will Willem Dafoe be nominated 3 years in a row? Always admired this actor even if his bit in The Grand Budapest Hotel scared me big time (has something to do with the memory of a movie I saw on TV during childhood that freaked me out; Dafoe's scene at the monastery (or was it in a museum?) reminded me of that).
After High Life, I became a fan of Pattinson. I wonder what he would have done in films such as Paterson, Locke and Manchester by the Sea.