Chadwick Boseman Oscar Chart Switcheroo
Friday, October 23, 2020 at 9:52PM 
I got my time comin' to me.
You've surely heard that Chadwick Boseman's people have made the (correct) decision to place him in the Best Actor category for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. Less category fraud makes the world a better place. And usually campaigns err on the side of fraud to make things easier for the big stars, so we couldn't applaud them more for it. While it's true that this considered a "featured" role on Broadway, so was Ma Rainey herself (so clearly Broadway sometimes has its own issues with "categories") and they're the two obvious big characters of the show. So we've updated both the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor chart as a result. We still think the late beloved actor is likely to win (though it's so early, we must remind) only now that posthumous honor will be in the correct category. People who've seen the film think he's special in it.
Chadwick Boseman will almost certainly win the Oscar for Best Actor, now that Netflix has officially decided to campaign him as a lead performer for MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM. He’s so good in his final film performance that it feels undeniable.
— Kyle Buchanan (@kylebuchanan) October 21, 2020
Reader Comments (27)
I'd be here for a posthumous Oscar win for Chadwick, assuming he and the film delivers (I'm sure they will). He will at least.
'I got my time comin' to me'
When I heard that in the trailer I inmediatelly thought about his big Oscar chances.
It wouldn't be great that he would be the first actor to be double nominated the same year posthumously?
Is a HUGE merit to play high caliber performances while he was fighting a devastater illnes.
The Oscars, if I recall correctly, doesn't have much of a record of bestowing posthumous acting awards. There's Finch and Ledger, of course. Any others?
Not saying it won't happen, but it's not a given. I think they like to give awards to people who can enjoy the win. I'm guessing you'll offer some stats about the nominations over the years for people who passed on by the time the awards came around.
I believe current word is Kingsley Ben-Adir could be going lead in One Night in Miami, and Tucci could be going supporting for Supernova. With Boseman gone, the narrative in Supporting Actor seems open for someone (ie a beloved veteran like Tucci or Bill Murray) to come in and sweep.
I’d been confident in Tom Burke’s chances a while, but he’s so absent from billing and promotional materials it’s starting to feel like his role could be tiny, with the film keeping him a more mysterious absent figure. On the other hand, Charles Dance as Citizen Kane’s inspiration Charles Randolph Hearst is getting the big ‘AND’ billing - he could have the meatiest supporting role of the film?
Otherwise I’d keep an eye out for Rylance, Richard E. Grant in Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Domingo or Truman in Ma Rainey’s, or either LaKeith Stanfield or Daniel Kaluuya with a bit of category fraud (if their film makes it in time).
If Mr. Boseman wins BA it'll be such a beautiful moment.
this leaves air to Sacha Baron Cohen's campaign in Supporting for The Trial of the Chicago 7. While Langella and Rylance are huge internal competition, I have the feeling that, after Borat 2's impact, he may even take the golden guy.
I look forward to this film and while I know Hopkins in The Father is receiving career best notices I just cannot see Boseman lose. I expect him to be really great in the film and when he passed early in the summer the reaction was so wide spread and shows how in such a short career the impact he had on many. I think his narrative and likely great performance will push him to the win.
I know it's rare for an actor to win posthumously let alone get nominated but Boseman to be seems unstoppable. Gandolfini in Enough Said is the most recent posthumous nomination that didn't happen that I expected to. The difference between that and this was even before Boseman's passing people were predicting him to be a major contender given the buzz around the play and Denzel's mission to get all 10 August Wilson plays on film.
I thought you hated when people predicted winners so early. ;) Kyle Buchanan is always so guilty of this (slash just pointing out the obvious so he can be "first").
But I get why you're saying this now. It really does feel like one of those undeniable moments in Hollywood.
What a crazy year!
I hope Hopkins wins it.
Over Hopkins in The Father?
Lol at people hoping Hopkins win despite not seeing Ma Rainey (and probably haven't even watched The Father).
What if they host a virtual Oscar telecast in an empty theater and nobody watched or cared?
I saw The Father earlier this week and was expecting a mid-tier Oscar bait disease movie. I was shocked at how wrong I was - it is easily one of the best movies of the year and both Hopkins and Colman are astounding in it. (Florian Zeller definitely deserves a Best Director nod for it - this is one theatrical adaptation that does not feel like a filmed play at all.)
Since I saw it, I've thought there was no way Hopkins could lose Best Actor. He gives a towering performance as a character that every Academy voter is familiar with; a second Oscar for Hopkins seems deserved, given his career; and he will be willing and able to charm voters (he is charming) from his home. Perhaps Boseman will win, but I think it will be tough for a posthumous performance in Best Actor to beat Hopkins.
Undeniable is a bit of a proclamation so early.
Adam -- i do typically hate it when people decide winners so early so I offered this as counterbalance to the insanity that people decided Anthony Hopkins was winning his second as early as before the last Oscar ceremony. people are crazy ;). It's probably still a race between the two of them. (provided both are nominated of course... we're much earlier in the race than people are admitting. It's not actually October but more like late August early September given the atypical Oscar calendar).
@Tim Real lovers of film will always care about the Oscar's in any form.
Lol.
Richard Lawson on Twitter in January: Put your money on Anthony Hopkins in 2021!
Glenn Whipp on Twitter in June: Delroy Lindo winning is the only thing I'm sure of when it comes to the Oscars this year.
May the best pundit win!
Delroy Lindo, Anthony Hopkins, Chadwick Boseman, Riz Ahmed...
...and Hanks/Oldman/Yeun/Firth...
The rollercoaster of emotions this'll be in case it happens... ;_;
I hope the movie lives up to the hype.
I watched the trailer being all excited for Viola but left being excited about Chadwick. He looks fantastic! I can’t wait to watch.
Love Chadwick Boseman, loathe that Kyle Buchanan tweet. Let the chips fall where they may. We don't need the NYT calling the race five months before the Oscars. Thanks but no thanks.
"I offered this as counterbalance to the insanity that people decided Hopkins was winning"
To root for an acting legend playing a sick man in a movie that happens to be very good now is insanity now. Good to know where you stand.
Sabine -- you left out the important part of my sentence to make me sound cruel which read "aa early as before the last Oscar ceremony." I am very comfortable announcing that I stand against determining Oscar races over a year before they happen. Very comfortable announcing that I stand there! :)
I don't even like doing that in October because it denies the possibility of other artistic achievements (since all the contenders have never been seen by this time)
Giving the Oscar to a dead guy in a virtual ceremony sounds like a good idea if you're into mass suicides!
Boseman
Hopkins
Oldman
Ahmed
Lindo or Yeun or Firth or Tucci
What a line up!!! I am here for it!!!
Hopkins is my preferential winner. It is difficult to beat a performance like that.
That's a mistake on Netflix's part. Boseman would have routed the field in supporting actor. Now he's losing to Hopkins in lead actor. Maybe he'll get the consolation prize in supporting actor, but that's far less likely with an almost cameo role in "Da 5 Bloods."
You're gonna wanna add Adarsh Gourav to this list very soon, as well as The White Tiger in Best Picture.