93rd Academy Awards: Handicapping the Best Actor Nominees
Sunday, April 18, 2021 at 2:00PM by Ben Miller
Few years can boast the overall performance strength of this season's Best Actor lineup. In a category with two previous Best Actor Oscar winners and two up-and-coming screen stars, the conversation has been blanketed by the shadow of tragedy. What is the likelihood of each nominated actor coming out on top on Oscar night?
Gary Oldman, Mank
3rd Nomination, 1 Win
Herman J. Mankiewicz doesn’t seem like much of a drunk. Most of the time he is drinking, but Mank himself is more reserved and prone to intellectual conversations. Gary Oldman is known to sink into his characters and the sober/mostly sober version of Mank is a man riddled with doubt, worry and resolve, which Oldman embodies beautifully. The one time Oldman gets to go big and truly drunk, he transforms into an entirely different species. Oldman/Mank is more of a cartoon than that of a human. Every word is booze-laden and slurred. No one step is in front of the other. He blisters and rails in a way that comes after a powerful moment, but still feels unearned. Not only does he drunkenly pitch his ideas, the pitch goes on-and-on with no end in sight. I really appreciate and enjoy the Oldman I get in every other scene, but his drunken film pitch almost ruins the entire characterization. While Oldman performs admirably overall, it's the weakest of this strong group.
Odds to Win: 100-1. Oldman is firmly in the “Happy to be here” group. He doesn’t even pose a long-shot chance of upsetting.
Steven Yeun, Minari
1st Nomination
Ahmed, Boseman, Hopkins, Oldman all have their big and bold Oscar clips at the ready. Steven Yeun’s work in Minari is the work of underplaying and quiet. Yeun’s Jacob has no outburst or tearful monologue; he is trying to succeed for his family without divulging his struggles. Jacob believes in the American dream and he will put in the work (and work he does) in order to achieve that dream. Does that dream include selfishness and shortsightedness? Absolutely. He represses his emotions because he knows his emotions don’t matter when it comes to succeeding. Yeun’s performance is more of an ideal than a showcase. Jacob’s presence looms throughout as the family adapts to the world around them, constantly buoyed by the work Jacob performs. Just as Hopkin’s performance works in concert with that of Olivia Colman, Yeun’s performance is echoed in the exasperation of Yeri Han’s character Monica. The two performances are so linked together, it feels almost criminal to celebrate Yeun without a corresponding notice for Han. Monica wants family harmony and ease, while Jacob wants prosperity and legacy and is willing to sacrifice his own happiness to achieve it. Yeun could have overplayed the part so easily and it would have made Minari less effective. Luckily, Jacob lets his farming do the talking and Yeun proves why doing less can equal more.
Odds to Win: 40-1. Minari’s late-breaking momentum garnered Yeun a well-deserved nomination, but he will have to wait for another year for the gold.
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
1st Nomination
My personal favorite male performance of the year. Ahmed’s character Ruben arrives starkly; shirtless with bleached hair while banging passionately on the drums. His musicianship is punctuated by his calculated listening and playing off his music partner/girlfriend. Shortly after, Ruben loses his hearing. This sends his life, which he felt like he finally had under control, into a spiral. He finds solace in a rural shelter for deaf recovering addicts. Ahmed makes an intelligent decision early on. As Ruben craves stability, his mind is anything but stable. Ruben rebels from the systems of the community, then embraces it. Later, he breaks the rules and learns to adapt with them. The film is littered with Ruben’s indecision and snap judgement, but concludes with Ruben finally in a place of stable serenity where Ahmed’s thoughtful work can shine and we as the audience can know that Ruben is at peace.
Odds to win: 20-1. Without Boseman, Best Actor would be down to Ahmed vs Hopkins and it might have bent in Ahmed’s favor given Hopkins' previous win.
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
6th Nomination, 1 Win
The character of Anthony (the role shares a first name with the actor) doesn’t feel like anything is wrong. How would you feel if everyone says you constantly need help and can’t live alone in your own apartment? Would you feel like the world is closing in on you, or would you lash out? All the characters in The Father are on eggshells around Anthony because they don’t know how intact his mind is from moment to moment. Meanwhile, Hopkins knows just how Anthony would act as he turns on the charm for a young woman or chats politely with the cordial man sitting in his living room. Just because Anthony’s mind is deceiving him in regards to time and memory, it doesn’t mean he is stupid and Hopkins wears his character’s knowledge like armor. It would be so easy to infantize Anthony and make him a puppy that needs protecting, but Hopkins portrays booming life and cannot understand why everyone is making such a fuss. Why do people keep showing up and keep showing such emotion? When his mind begins to wander and he wonders if something is amiss, he still tries to remain in control. Anthony is not a simple, sweet man, but a complex portrait of a complex man, with a decaying mind. Portraying an illness like dementia could have been so wrong in less capable hands, but Hopkins shows that old age does not mean he has lost a step.
Odds to win: 8-1. Screen legend + powerful performance + playing their advancing age = Oscar gold, but this is not a normal year. Chalk his BAFTA win to his Britishness. This is still Boseman’s.
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
1st Nomination (Posthumous)
The shadow of Boseman’s death is inescapable from the film and that’s what makes Boseman’s performance as Levee so devastating. Levee is ALIVE and Boseman imbues him with fervor and grand dreams, and God help you if you get in his way. The role allows Boseman to show off a radiant personality while holding back where his real motivations lie. Though they share only a few scenes, Viola Davis’ titular character and Boseman are the push and pull that makes the film sing. Ma Rainey wants to play the standards in the way they were intended to be played. Levee wants to shake things up for the way the world is evolving. Levee’s problem is the world is evolving too slowly. He has no illusions about the truth of the world, but naively believes he can overcome those truths if he does things certain ways. Just as Levee was born a century too early, Boseman left us far too early. At least he left us with this searing portrait of ambition and life.
Odds to win: 2-5. The performance itself was great enough and the posthumous nomination will translate to an Oscar win. Expect a heartfelt, tearful acceptance speech from Boseman’s widow.
2020, Anthony Hopkins, Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman, Gary Oldman, Riz Ahmed, Steven Yeun
Reader Comments (59)
The teary-eyed speeches and the honor-his-legacy articles can neither hide the fact that Boseman's performance is inferior to Hopkins', nor that it will only be a mediocre win if he gets the award.
It’s weirdly easy to see Boseman’s win as one that’s more of a posthumous honor for his career and to cement his place in cinema history. But his performance as Levee is both unforgettable, impactful, and played with precision. I’ll admit, as I watched Ma Rainey’s I had no idea he had a performance like that in him. His last film truly is a reminder of what a talent we lost, and it’s a towering depiction of just how challenging it is to be a Black male artist in our world.
From this line-up, Hopkins wins this for me in a landslide. It saddens me that this performance has not receive the traction it deserves. While I love spreading the wealth, this type of performance (for the ages) should be sweeping. Such powerful and masterful technical precision in A+ acting.
My own line-up:
Winner: Hopkins
2. Mads Mikkelsen
3. Riz Ahmed
4. Delroy Lindo
5. Chadwick Boseman
I prefer both Anthony Hopkins' and Riz Ahmed's performances but Boseman is also deserving. It will not be a bad win if he indeed wins the Oscar.
Overall, this is a pretty good line up even if I am a bit meh toward Gary Oldman.
I only see some well-played monologues in Boseman's performance. Hopkins and Ahmed are markedly better in their respective films.
Boseman will make a wonderful winner. Even so, if I was an Oscar voter, I would have a hard time not checking the box next to Anthony Hopkins. A level of acting we don't see every year.
I loved Boseman’s performance. He nailed the staginess and theatricality of the material while still giving a very cinematic performance. The backstory monologue is a tour de force. It’s not a project that would require or benefit from the subtlety that works so well for Yuen (who was awesome, but like Ben, I kept wondering how he was singled out while Yeri Han was not even in the conversation for her magnificent performance), and Boseman was a perfect complement to Viola Davis. Though they didn’t share much onscreen interaction, they were clearly acting in the same world at the same level. Though there is obviously much personal sentimentality towards Boseman, this win is earned. He’s fantastic.
That said, if I went just by the performances separated from anything else (and we’re kidding ourselves to think that would ever be possible in any year), my vote would be Riz Ahmed. Holy shit. I haven’t been able to stop thinking about that character, that journey. I’m experiencing some intense personal grief in my own life right now, and the look on Ahmed’s face in the final shot after his struggles to learn to exist in stillness has helped me in my own healing. That’s the power of movies.
Hopkins-5 hearts
Ahmed-4 hearts
Boseman-4 hearts
Oldman-3.5 hearts
Yeun-3 hearts
Remember when everyone said that Glenn Close was going to win for sure, undoubtedly, with a guarantee? I still think the Academy can surprise and go with Anthony Hopkins. Or Riz Ahmed. I thought his nomination was the prize, a huge recognition until I saw the movie - OMFG!
Ahmed deserves this, but I would not be mad if Boseman wins.
Doug -- i agree so much. I think this Best Actor lineup is sensational. And any of theme, except Oldman would make great winners. Boseman is just so passionate and intense and resonant. I really dont understand the complaints that it's theatrical. It IS theatrical on purpose! but i guess i like "heightened" stuff in general. Realism isn't everything. It's just one mode of acting. There are lots of different styles of acting. I (slightly) prefer the work of Ahmed & Hopkins this year but Boseman will make a worthy winner.
My personal pick is Ahmed. Also think Boseman will win but I'm still not rulling out a Hopkins "upset", and I would be very happy with one.
Anyone but Oldman will be a wonderful winner. It's a great lineup. I only wish Delroy Lindo or Mads Mikkelson had been nominated instead of Oldman, it would have been one of the best lineups in Oscar history.
Boseman approached the whole thing epidermically, maybe that was the screenplay's shortcoming. Hopkins and Ahmed did incredibly complex, layered work.
1. Boseman
2. Ahmed
3. Hopkins
4. Yeun
5. Oldman
Should have been here: Lindo, duh!
All in all, it's a lineup that comes close (or matches) Best Actor 2012, 2013, and 2019.
I'm not understanding all the negativity toward Boseman's performance. He is not winning because he died. I firmly believe he still would be the victor even if he was still with us. It's a brilliant, shattering performance in every single aspect. Without taking anything away from Hopkins, Boseman deserves the Oscar. Personally, I would love to see a tie. It's been a minute since March and Beery's dual win, so why not.
Nathaniel, is there any chance of a tie?
I still think Riz has a small shot at winning if Hopkins and Boseman split the vote, ala Davis and Swanson in 1950.
This lineup would be perfection if Lindo replaced Oldman.
My personal favorite is Riz Ahmed. He's very sexy and that power is there in his portrayal. I also think both Boseman and Hopkins are wonderful, but the films they are in are just not as good, to me, as Sound of Metal.
Boseman doesn't deserve to win this. Hopefully Hopkins wins!
They both play in movies that are based on plays but Hopkins is never 'theatrical', Boseman always is. Give him Tony, not the Oscar.
For me, the performances given by Ahmed in SOUND OF METAL and Hopkins in THE FATHER stand miles above the rest. But to be sure, both men also had the advantage of beautifully crafted scripts and wise, measured direction. Either performance winning would be handily deserved.
In Boseman's performance, I find the fault not with his acting abilities (Boseman clearly had charm and was capable of reaching high emotional heights), but with his director's inability to rein or temper the acting. This is a performance that would've probably shone onstage, but through the up-close lens of film, it feels like the rest of MA RAINEY--- overwrought, artificial, and highly mechanical.
I adored MINARI, but actually found Yeun the least memorable of the main cast. Yuh-jung and Kim were the heart and soul of the film for me.
I disliked Oldman's performance, finding it both bland and wasteful (like the rest of the film). Seyfried and the beautiful production design provided MANK's only saving graces.
It does feel like Hopkins is coming for an upset, Olivia Colman style.
We shall see.
Chadwick Boseman was fantastic and will make one of the best actor Oscar winners this century. No caveats or asterisks will be required whatsoever by his name on that trophy.
It is agreed and accepted by basically everyone that Hopkins is the best performance of the year.
However, if the Academy was to give the award to Hopkins, the "Oscars so white" hashtag would come back in force, and the Academy doesn't have the courage to ignore that. The weird thing is that people with that hashtag probably haven't even seen both performances, as usual.
I think the possibility for a Hopkins upset, although absolutely deserved, came too late in the game to happen and the dead-guy, BLM narratives are very strong.
Scheebs : I agree.
My rankings:
1- Riz Ahmed
2- Steven Yeun
3- Chadwick Boseman
4- Anthony Hopkins
5- Gary Oldman
Also wanted to echo the comments praising Yeri Han. I thought she gave the best performance of the movie. I wish she had received more attention and accolades.
I went to a test screening of Ma Rainey 15 months ago when Boseman was alive and (presumably) well and I was certainly impressed. At the time I thought he’d maybe get a nomination in either supporting or lead but didn’t think he’d win (of course I couldn’t know that for sure without seeing the competition). That being said, I have no problem with him winning because I’m not sure I could choose between Riz and Hopkins. I’m of the opinion one of those gentleman would be winning if Chadwick hadn’t passed away.
1. Hopkins ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
2. Boseman ❤️❤️❤️❤️
3. Ahmed ❤️❤️❤️❤️
4. Oldman ❤️❤️❤️
5. Yeun ❤️❤️❤️
Hopkins floored me. The others are great, but Hopkins would be the best Best Actor winner since De Niro in Raging Bull
Should dead people compete for an award?
The ASC has gone with "Mank." An omen?
I will still be less shocked if Ahmed or Hopkins wins than I was when Coleman won a couple of years ago. It just proved the lack of sentimentality in the Academy membership. Rather than give Glenn Close the Oscar she's been deserving for 35 years, they said, "eh. She can wait. We like this fresh flavor from across the pond." I could easily see them saying, "that was theater, not film acting, and he's dead so he can't enjoy it anyway." I wouldn't be the house on it, but I'd bet a ten spot just for kicks.
@Haley Joel
Are you also taking away Finch and Ledger"s Oscars then?
I do't remember all this trash being talked when Ledger was seen as the front runner.
I have seen all five nominated performances....Hopkins > Ahmed > Yuen > Boseman > Oldman.
I would have also replaced Oldman with Mikkelsen and placed him third followed by Yuen and Boseman.
Hopkins 5
Ahmed 4.5
Boseman 4
Oldman 4
Yeun 3
I've seen all of them and still Chadwick Boseman is #1.
Boseman, like Heath Ledger before him, might not have won were he still alive, but will still make a very deserving winner. For all the little Black boys out there, let the man have this well-earned legacy. This moment is bigger than whom any single one of us would vote for.
Anthony Hopkins and Riz Ahmed stand above the competition. If I were voting, I would have had a very hard time choosing.
I liked Boseman's performance but the movie is forgettable. Boseman is a fine actor with several movies/perfomances that stand out but he is not Heath Ledger. Had Chadwick been alive, Anthony Hopkins would have had swept the awards.
i would love to see hopkins win, but if he did, i worry about the backlash toward a performance i love (in a movie a lot of people have proudly not seen). hopkins himself might prefer for boseman to win, in a way that colman always wants someone else to win. i don't know. it does seem absurd for that performance not to win, though... i'm #torn.
thank you.I only see some well-played monologues in Boseman's performance
نصب کولر ابی
My ranking of the nominees
Hopkins this has got be one of the performances of the past 20 years
Ahmed steps up to a challenge and delivers esp with scene aprtners
Boseman He plays the character as written but so hard to like as a character and it affects the performance but he is solid throughout.
Oldman not near his best but has good chemistry with Seyfried who steals every scene with him in it.
Yeun nicely played but he's not excited me yet.
I'd have preferred Affleck,Lindo and Mikkelsen over Oldman,Boseman and Yeun.
@Doug : I loved your comment regarding the power of movies. Cheers
Shmeebs - we are in the era of voting for the ones that makes us look good not the ones that we really like.
I actually enjoyed Viola Davis' performance more (compared to Chadwick Boseman's) in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
That comes from someone who rarely enjoys Davis' work and finds her overly earnest in almost all of her performances.
This time she did something fun and I had fun watching her act (Mulligan should still win the Oscar though, that's a killer performance).
Boseman acts brilliantly but his monologues are often too long, somehow overbearing and tedious.
My line-up would have been: Ahmed - Lindo - Magaro - Mikkelsen - Yeun but the posthumous celebration of Boseman would be touching moment
Yikes. These comments are gross. I wish people could talk about Boseman without being so offensive.
1. Hopkins
2. Yeun
3. Ahmed
4. Boseman
5. Oldman
I would have nominated Lindo and Mikkelson.
Max people are just giving honest assessments of the Best Actor lineup. I think there should still be room for that without miscategorising it as bullying or belittling.
1. Hopkins
2 Ahmed
3. Boseman
4.Yeun
5. Oldman
If they don't give Hopkins the Oscar now, they'll certainly give him one in a supporting role in an inferior film - I'm sure of that.
This is a lot of trash being talked about black Boseman that wasn't hurled at white Ledger that year. Serious side-eye to JD and Haley Joel. The disrespect is blatant and probably purposeful.