"Belfast" is TIFF's choice. How far can it go with Oscar?
Monday, September 20, 2021 at 8:00PM by Nathaniel R
going to the movies in "Belfast"
It's been strange to have gone without TIFF, my once favourite festival, for two years running. As a result i have yet to see Kenneth Branagh's Belfast which did not play at Venice though its Oscar buzz is now quite loud. It recently won TIFF's People's Choice Award which has long been a strong Oscar bellwether. We'd argue that that connection is less causal than reflective of a "similar taste profile", though. The type of people who go to huge and accessible film festivals are not unlike Oscar voters in that their tastes lean mainstream but mainstream under the now niche umbrella (sigh) of "also art"...
It's a damn shame that the general public is no longer interested in the "also art" part, only flocking to ultra specific genres (animated comedies, superhero films) and sequels of hits. So many crowd-pleasing smash hit classics from film history would struggle to be seen at all if released today and they'd probably be labelled "films no one has heard of" like today's Oscar contenders often are, despite being discussed frequently by the media. But let's not get bitter and sidetracked!
In our 'year in advance' Oscar charts we had Belfast at #8 but it might well be the frontrunner now after the emotional responses at Telluride and TIFF. So for today's updates in Best Picture and Best Director and Original Screenplay we've moved Belfast up to the top position on all three charts. The acting chart updates yet to come but we'll definitely be moving Jamie Dornan and Caitronia Balfe who play "Pa and Ma" up in the supporting charts (which they're already on but not "predicted"... oops)
Generally TIFF's winner will go on to a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars and sometimes the win as in the recent cases of Nomadland, Green Book and 12 Years a Slave. But it's worth talking about the runners up too. Usually the runners up will also factor into the Oscar derby in some major way (though not necessarily in Best Picture as recent TIFF runners up like I Tonya, If Beale Street Could Talk, and One Night in Miami can attest). Unless of course they're not in the English language or happen to be Canadian (sorry, Canada. We love you!!!) and then it's more of a crapshoot since a lot depends on the vagaries of distribution and whether or not their countries submit them in the Best International Feature Film race.
This year the awards went like so:
BELFAST
SCARBOROUGH
THE POWER OF THE DOG
TIFF People's Choice - Belfast (UK)
Runners up: Scarborough (Canada) and Power of the Dog (New Zealand)
This is great news for Power of the Dog because, though it's terrific, it's not exactly a 'crowd pleaser' in any traditional sense so a mainstream honor like "People's Choice" is a sign that it has more mass appeal than you'd expect given the unsavory story and difficult characters.
As for the documentary 'people's choice' prizes they are a much less Oscar predictive honor, probably due to Oscar's complex process to landing a nomination in that category. Recent TIFF winners that did factor into the Oscar doc race were Faces Places, I Am Not Your Negro, The Cave, and The Square but only Free Solo to date has won both TIFF and the Oscar.
TIFF People's Choice Documentary The Rescue (US/UK)
Runners up: Dionne Warwick: Don't Make Me Over (US) and Flee (Denmark)
THE RESCUE
The Rescue, which is about the 2018 effort to say 12 boys and their soccer coach trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand, is actually from the directors of Free Solo, though, so watch out for that one. It opens in the US on October 8th.
Are you excited for Belfast and do you think it's the frontrunner already?
Reader Comments (23)
Yes, I'm excited that Kenneth Branagh to have solid contention for Academy Award wins… The man has been nominated five times (in FIVE different categories), and I've always thought he's been an amazing creative talent. He's my personal Amy Adams, let's put it that way.
The trailer pushes a lot of sentiment, but I always love Ciaran Hinds in anything. Glad he got to be Irish Irish on the big screen!
(Please Oscar deities, can Oscar agony end for Glenn Close and Thomas Newman too?)
As soon as I saw the trailer, my immediate thought was that Oscar would just eat this up. Maybe my sad cynical heart will melt when I watch the movie, but it just screamed Obvious Oscar Bait to me.
That being said, Branagh is due for something. And Dornan gets a lot of screentime in the trailer. Maybe he gets the surprise "Who knew they could act?" nomination this year, although you could argue that Kristen Stewart gets that spot this time. (Cinephiles and the French knew she could act but for a long time she was a mainstream joke similar to Dornan. )
Just want to share that another Indonesian film just won big at the world level.
YUNI won the Platform Prize at TIFF this year!
TOM G -- I keep hearing this about Jamie Dornan and I'm like "didn't people watch that serial killer show he starred in? He was a-ma-zing in that." Also so funny in Barb & Star.
Fadhil -- i will have to try to find that!
Pancake -- that stat about him is so crazy and i love it.
Jamie Dornan in The Fall was complete and utter magic. He was fantastic.
And dare I say way more sexually enticing than in anything 50 Shades-related.
Surely with the Silver Lion and the TIFF runner up prize, Campion is now in pole or 2nd position for a nomination for director - I may or may not have pinned all my hopes, wishes and dreams for awards season on her getting a second nomination this year.
It's been so long since I've watched a quality bait-y movie on the big screen, I'm very ready for Belfast. (And the new Campion, and the Larrain, and the Coen, and the Farhadi... GIVE ME EVERYTHING!)
It's Branagh time - specially after Artemis Fowl put him into question, this is a return to form - and the film is literally something AMPAS will swallow. The combo is unbeatable, in my opinion...
... so we are probably going to see DGA, SAG Ensemble, BAFTA Sweep and then Oscar.
They must intentionally be mimicking the ROMA marketing (yellow font) to welcome the comparison, which is pretty inevitable, so I kind of like that strategy. Especially since ROMA lost the big prize...this certainly feels like a BP winner.
I'm not excited for Belfast. The trailer makes me think of Weinstein-produced Lasse Hallstrom Oscar-bait from 25 years ago. (And I thought Jamie Dornan dragged down Barb and Star.)
It certainly seems to be in prime position for Oscar, but I don't believe it will win. With the exception of Green Book, they haven't really gone with a big unchallenging crowd-pleaser type film in years, and unlike Green Book, this isn't about civil rights, so it won't seem as "important" (no offense, but the Troubles won't have as much resonance for as many people).
I'm all up for Gyllenhaal to be nominated for screenplay like her mother, who wrote the great Running on Empty. I think that could be a good campaign strategy.
It's impossible to tell from this trailer, but I hope that Caitronia Balfe has a part that can score her a nomination. She's been terrific in Outlander for years and she and Sam Heughan have been carrying that entire Starz network by themselves it seems.
This might be the kind of part that is both "girlfriend" and "Mom" which I doubt voters could resist.
While this film looks promising, I'm not certain that it's the frontrunner for BP quite yet. Even if it is a crowd pleaser, I think this year box-office receipts are going to matter in the same way they always have for BP. With theaters coming back, I suspect voters are going to want to put their money behind a film that proudly declares movies are back, especially if we're out of Covid in the US by early 2022.
Maybe this will make a ton of money given its production budget. But, it will take a savvy marketing campaign to make it happen. TWC company was able to push the Artist across the finish line and got great receipts for that, but I'm not entirely sure Universal/Focus Features can pull that off. I could be wrong though...
I wish Kenneth Branagh would go back to making some Shakespeare adaptations. Henry V, Much Ado About Nothing, and Hamlet were all great, worthy adaptations.
Always? You couldn't say that about the majority of recent winners...
Nathaniel: are you fairly confident that Balfe, Dench, Hinds , and Dornan all all campaigning Supporting? Might Balfe and/or Dornan bump up to Lead? From the reviews it sounds like Hill is the only true Lead.
Michael R -- from my understanding they're all going supporting but these things are rarely set in stone until the FYC ads start coming out.
@Nathaniel — it's a crazy and pretty distinct Oscar stat! Just to put it down here: the noms were for Actor, Director (both for Henry V), Supporting Actor (My Weekend with Marilyn), Screenplay Adaptation (Hamlet) and Short Film (Swan Song, featuring John Gielgud).
In 1994, Branagh was reeling from a high-budget studio film disappointment in Frankenstein, and followed it up with an intimate, very personal black & white film, In The Bleak Midwinter (or A Midwinter's Tale in the US). The movie is brimming with charm, and delivered the poignant statement on the power and beauty of theater.
In 2020, Branagh is reeling from a high-budget studio film disappoitment in Artermis Fowl, and followed that up with an intimate, very personal black & white film, Belfast. From the looks of the trailer, it will also be pushing charm, and a likely poignant story of family. These follow-ups are not the most sophisticated films, but Branagh can get pretty genuine, and no matter the project, is always serving story and character.
@Raul — Agree. He really knows cinematic vernacular of Shakespeare…
Thanks for coming to my TED talk on Branagh! :D
Many solid directors have made celebrated films reflecting on memories of their childhood - Truffaut's The 400 Blows, Fellini's Amarcord, Boorman's Hope and Glory, Linklater's Boyhood, Cuaron's Roma, and Chung's Minari. The films win plaudits but not Best Picture. I suspect this to continue with Belfast.
@Working Stiff - even though films that aren't blockbusters have won, they've almost all made 10 times the amount of their budget. Nomadland stands out, but still made a ton of money given its budget and the pandemic.
Nathaniel, baby... I don’t want to be annoying but, please, PLEASE, check the spelling on Ms. Balfe’s first name: it’s CAI-TRI-ONA! My poor actressexual heart is bleeding (but I love you).
I am always in the tank for Kenneth Branagh, he may miss occasionally, but there is no denying his protean talents. And TIFF has given us a terrific double header of "Belfast" (winner People's Choice at TIFF) and "The Power of the Dog" (Runner-up)
Am I looking forward to going to the cinema again for these 2 films? YES> and we even have a vaccine passport in place now in Canada to make it a little safer.
"The Troubles" in Ireland is a subject matter that will grab an audience, it was one of the most emotional and terrible conflicts witnessed in the last 60 years.
As I am late to this discussion, (busy with election in Canada) let me add that Jamie Doran's talent has been obvious to anyone who watched "The Fall" (BBC series)
Co-sign @dave in Hollywood, Caitronia Balfe is terrific in "Outlander" and deserves to get some wider appreciation.
Honestly, Branagh knows how to cast good actors and use them well. "Belfast" will certainly be nominated for Best Picture, the real race may be for Best Director.
Just finished watching "The rescue" - wow, what an emotional journey it was... tears and excitement all through the film! Even though we all know how this operation ended. But the two older british dudes being such heroes and the overall underlined message, that you can be a professional in totally different field, but if you have a hobby, that you really love, you can become a true "top of the world specialist" in something totally different and give such a value and even change the world for some other people too. What a great movie and loved that it educated me culturally too.
This may also sneak into original song category with Aloe Blacc singing "Believe" when the end credits start.
Haven't seen Belfast yet, but The power of the dog seems to be locking itself to become Best Film nom... I really liked the film, but after reading the book, the script didn't get all these intricate surprises into it, like the book had. The way the book held all the main secrets to the end and even how the writer played out the very ending - such a fantastic read and a true classic by Thomas Savage! In the film everything seemed more obvious and predictable. But I did like the refined way how the title's psychological integration to the whole story was so delicately translatable from the way Phil understood through it that the other person is his soulmate. Made me think, that maybe women have more of an eye and tenderness to read out such feelings from stories and create accordingly mise-en-scenes on the screen that bring the whole importance and depth out from the layers, than men do.