Will "Best Supporting Actress" prove the most volatile category this year?
Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 7:30PM by Nathaniel R
Kerry Condon is brilliant in "Banshees of Inisherin". Oscar nomination forthcoming
Early December has a way of suddenly narrowing down Oscar nomination dreams but until we get there, the year's most volatile acting category feels like Best Supporting Actress. From the plethora of films with multiple options (Women Talking, The Woman King, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Glass Onion, Tár, She Said) to stand-outs in films with male leads (The Banshees of Inisherin, Armageddon Time, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale, The Inspection) and one key still-to-screen performance (Jean Smart in Babylon), there are a lot of valid choices for Academy members. And that isn't even all of the options if they're feeling freethinking and adventurous this season (rare but one can always dream).
At this point we're predicting...
- Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Because the universe often conspires to reduce ensemble pictures down to one performer and Buckley has one of the two showiest roles (the other belongs to Claire Foy). Plus she's fresh off her first nomination and the Academy often stays in love for a bit after that first trip to the golden circus. Potential Obstacle: Claire Foy plus over-hype for the film which, whatever its merits, is exactly that title. - Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Because even if the performance wasn't phenomenal (it is) she'd have the advantage of being the only major female in an acclaimed male-heavy surefire Best Picture contender. That advantage has led to several wins over the years, let alone nominations.
Potential Obstacle: It's hard to spot one which means she could even win! - Hong Chau, The Whale
Chau presumably came close to the Oscar shortlist as the MVP (by a Grand Canyon sized margin) in Downsizing five years ago. Eventually Hollywood is going to catch on to her incredibly reliable gifts; She always elevates the role beyond what's written.
Potential Obstacle: A24 has focused everything on Brendan Fraser thus far. There aren't even stills of Chau in the movie released. Oscar voters could (incorrectly) see The Whale as a one-man show. Plus, the film's other supporting actresses, Sadie Sink and Samantha Morton, have more to do in the final scenes.
- Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
A brilliant best-in-show take on a role that could easily have been flatter. Plus she's a delight on the campaign trail (yes, that helps... especially if the voters aren't that familiar with your career). The love for the movie, which is real if not unanimous, has to go somewhere and where better than here?
Potential Obstacle: Who - voters have to know your name. Finally, she has considerable competition for the 'discovery/rising star' factor with Mbedu, Hsu, also working that angle. - Nina Hoss, Tár
Like both Condon and Chau, her campaign will unquestionably benefit from having a strong scene-partner who already feels locked up for a lead acting nod. That always helps in the supporting category. Plus she has her own devout fans among Oscar's international membership as a leading lady of reknown in German language cinema. What's more the role is a familiar type. Oscar voters love a spouse who has had to put with a lot from their partner.
But it's hard to feel confident that that's the five when Jamie Lee Curtis (overdue and hilarious), Claire Foy (memorably angry), Stephanie Hsu (complex role + rising star alert!), Gabrielle Union (Gotham nominee in a film that's just getting started) are all right there and feel viable, too. Not to mention the leading roles that are competing here like Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King) and Carey Mulligan (She Said) and deeper cut performers from those same exact films.
Finally, nobody has seen what current Emmy champ Jean Smart has to work with in Babylon... maybe that's a surefire nomination waiting to happen.
What do you think is going to happen? Use that crystal ball in the comments.
Reader Comments (12)
That would be an incredible lineup (and the second row of contenders is pretty amazing too!) Spoiled for riches this year.
Seems a little early for the lock icon, though - you're that confident about Kerry?
I still remember the lock icon Nat put under Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus for best supporting actress many years ago. Hehe
Jean Smart is having a moment and that is part of the journey to getting a nomination. I hope she gets a nomination. She could take the path that Alison Janney took to her win.
After so many years of Black actresses struggling for work, for recognition, I want to step back from the prediction challenge and just admire this list of remarkable talent giving astonishing lead and supporting film performances.
Naomi Ackie in I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Sheila Atim in The Woman King
Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Viola Davis in The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler in Till
Whoopi Goldberg in Till
Regina Hall in Honk for Jesus
Zoe Kravitz in The Batman
Lashana Lynch - The Woman King
Thuso Mbedu In The Woman King
Janelle Monae in Glass Onion
Thandiwe Newton in God's Country
Lupita Nyong'o in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Keke Palmer in Nope
Taylor Russel in Bones and All
Tamara Tunie in I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Gabrielle Union In The Inspection
This could be another year as 2008 (No Country's year) or 2021 (Nomadland's year) where all the nominees in every category are juicy and with a beautiful best picture lineup. Let's hope they don't funk it up
The statistics say at least one nominee who was nominated the previous year will get a nomination,I have 4 potentials who I think are very strong.
Buckley fills the we really like you previous nominee spot
Condon fills the only lead in a male dominated film
Curtis the career honour
Hoss the supportive wife to a difficult protagonist male or female
The 5th slot is harder to decide on
We could get an all first timers like Best Actor if Buckley fades and Foy emerges
DeLeon is one of those wildcard passion picks
Union's film will probably not be seen widely and that's a shame,Indie Nod likely
If the love for any any movie is bigger than we think that would benefit Foy,Hsu and Chau
The late breaker nominee could be Jean Smart or Tamara Tunie who is playing Whitney's mother and we know they love mothers good or bad and i'm predicting Ackie to take the 5th slot for Actress with Yeoh,Deadwyler,Williams and Blanchett.
The Woman King ladies will siphone votes from each other.
Mulligan can wait till Maestro hits in 2023,Goldberg and Mortons roles are probably not big enough.
The Glass Onion ladies are unlikely as good as they might be.
Great list from Finbar McBride!
I’d like to add Lashana Lynch in Matilda: The Musical. I didn’t even know Lynch was also a singer. A great showcase combo with her excellent work in The Woman King.
Zoe Saldana in Avatar 2. Although motion capture has a different kind of viewer interface, it doesn’t work unless the actor gets right to the heart of it, like Saldana does.
Danai Gurira in Wakanda Forever. One of my favourites from the first Wakanda movie.
I haven't really paid attention to THE WHALE's Oscar nods, but man now I'm dreaming on a possible lineup here with THREE Asian actresses--Chau, De Leon and Hsu. That would be really something and gosh, I hope we see it.
It's an insanely stacked category regardless!
I think Condon's got a great shot but beyond that it seems a bit hazy to me. Buckley is the likeliest, given her recent nomination, but it feels to me like there will be one spot for that film and we'll know closer to time who gets it. Hoss also seems to have a pretty good shot, but it kind of depends on how much that film is being talked about in early 2023. I worry that beyond Cate it's going to get kind of lost by then. I love Chau but they've declined to nominate her so far and the film will be divisive. And yeah until people see Babylon the Smart thing is a question mark. But folks love her so ... I could see that 5 (Condon, Buckley, Hoss, Chau, Smart), but ...
I think if Curtis works for it she's got a great shot at a nomination. And I sort of think people are underestimating Glass Onion. I haven't seen it but I suspect it's going to be a huge hit and if so I could see that propelling Hudson or Monae.
I think the only lock is Condon. It'd be wonderful if BAFTA, the GGs, and Critics Choice all had different nominees. With a field this deep it could happen.
While I did not like Banshees of Inishirin at all, Kerry Condon is the MVP. But gosh, there are better supporting roles this season.
Haven't seen THE WHALE but I'd be delighted to see Hong Chau at the podium. So great in DRIVEWAYS. Wish the Davises Essie and Judy were getting a push for NITRAM.
(also, note: the photo you have of Nina Hoss is from another movie in which she plays the violin, THE AUDITION)