April Foolish Oscar Predix Pt 2 - Screenplay, Scores, Song, Sound
Monday, April 11, 2022 at 9:00AM Previously: Pt 1 Animated Features
A promo still from SPIRITED © Apple TV+
We're dropping the April Foolish Oscar Predictions daily for a week and that should take us through Cannes when the game shifts again with lots of new information to process. Excuse our sibilant sssssssss today but it's time for the two screenplay categories, and the three sound related categories.
Are There Any Musicals This Year?
Yes but not like last season. 2021 was shocking with 11 musicals released though only three turned into real Oscar players (Encanto, tick tick BOOM!, and West Side Story) This year there are half as many. We're getting a Nicholas Britell scored version of Carmen (directed by Mr Natalie Portman himself Benjamin Milipied), Apple TV+ is releasing Spirited, a new musical take of the constantly retold Scrooge story with Will Ferrell and Ryan Reynolds in the leading roles...
There's an animated musical with score by Alan Menken (yay) called Spellbound coming and a screen adaptation of stage tuner 13 The Musical (by Jason Robert Brown). The most enticing prospect is the screen version of Broadway hit Matilda The Musical. The director Matthew Warchus, who was Tony-nominated for the 2013 stage production, has already proven that his directorial gifts translate to the screen (see his Golden Globe nominated comedy Pride, 2014)...
Still the movie musicals that might double as Oscar behemoths are not coming this year; Adaptations of Broadway hits The Color Purple and Wicked aren't due in theaters until late in 2023.
The music and sound categories are generally very hard to suss out this far in advance since beyond film editing, they're sometimes the last hires on a movie. And with Best Original Score especially and even Best Original Song to some degree (hi Diane Warren) it's important to know who is composing since Oscar's music branch is extremely faithful to their favourite musicians. So consider this 'light suggestions' as to what might be in play since many composers have yet to be hired for upcoming movies.
But one thing we can wonder about already is whether Oscar's music branch is ever going to nominated Taylor Swift? She keeps writing songs for movies -- this year for "Where the Crawdads Sing" -- but like Madonna before her (who used to write songs for movies fairly often) Oscar voters have always ignored her efforts. It's a weird prejudice given that they will nominated Diane Warren for literally anything, no matter how forgettable (which is why that snub for Burlesque for an actual song that was within the movie and not an end credits scroll is still so weird in retrospect).
But screenplays are easier to speculate about this far in advance even though it's still hard to know what Oscar might fancy in nine months time when they start filling out their nomination ballots.
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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYS
Milk writer Dustin Lance Black will attempt a second Oscar play for another biopic of a gay activist Rustin. Green Book winners Peter Farrelly and Brian Hayes Currie are back with The Greatest Beer Run Ever. Jordan Peele, who won for Get Out, has Nope this summer. And 12 Years a Slave screenwriter John Ridley makes his directorial debut with the political biopic Shirley.
Previous Oscar nominated writers like Martin McDonagh (Banshees of Inisherin), William Nicholson (Thirteen Lives), Damien Chazelle (Babylon), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), David O. Russell (Canterbury Glass), Todd Field (Tár), Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans), Anthony McCartern (I Wanna Dance With Somebody), Wes Anderson (Asteroid City), George Miller (Three Thousand Years of Longing), could compete again this year. Never nominated major talents like James Gray (Armageddon Time), David Cronenberg (Crimes of the Future), Ari Aster (Disappointment Blvd), Kelly Reichardt (Showing Up) and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once) will also hopefully be in the conversation. ON PAPER -- there's always that caveat -- it looks like a sensational year for Original works coming right at us.
ADAPTED
All eyes will be on what Oscar winner Eric Roth does with Killers of a Flower Moon for Martin Scorsese, and what Noah Baumbach can wring from the great Don Delillo's novel White Noise. We'll also find out if lightning can strike twice for Florian Zeller with his follow up to The Father which is called The Son (and again he's adapting his own play to the screen). But that's just the tip of the iceberg. Lots of potentially fascinating movies adapted projects ahead, too.
This time of year is so exciting. We can fantasize that every movie on the way will be a masterpiece.
ANIMATED FEATURE PREDICTION CHART
Reader Comments (9)
Apparently a festival programmer who has seen the new Cronenberg movie claims it will be even more controversial and divisive than Crash was in ‘96, and also that Lea Seydoux is “too bonkers and radical” in the film to be an awards contender. I’m not sure if that helps or hurts its award chances, but it sure as hell makes me excited to see it. Although after last year’s Palme d’Or winner was a film that had a lot of Cronenberg influence, maybe there’s a chance festival juries are warming up to body horror? Not sure about Oscars.
Great to have these early predictions for the reasons you say - so much hope at this stage!
The absence of the Burlesque songs from Oscar's Best Original Song category was a surprise at the time, not just in retrospect. How did it miss? And that was in a year of only four nominees. But I do recall that the category was something of a mess in the early 2010s - leading to the Academy changing the scoring system after the 2011 Oscars coughed up just two nominees for the category - and even then, the wrong song won!
Thankfully, Original Song has been doing somewhat better in recent years, thanks in no small part to James Bond and Lady Gaga. As for Diane Warren: is it a record that she's been nominated the last five years in a row? She should have won for 'Nothing's Gonna Stop Us Now' in 1987 and 'I Don't Want to Miss a Thing' in 1998. Surely she has another great movie song in her that will win her the gold one year soon?
Madonna should have won the Oscar for Beautiful Stranger.
You Haven't Seen the Last of Me and Good Girl from Burlesque both should have been nominated.
I'd say Die Another Day should have been the winner for Madonna. It was the tail end of the era where she was considered "coolest", right before the US media/industry decided she was in the game for too long, but unfortunately back then Bond themes were frowned upon, which is a shame because now they are celebrating Billie Eilish who basically imitated the previous theme song.
Beautiful Stranger should have been nominated indeed, that one was a weird lineup and easily the worst of the Disney wins. Otherwise Who's That Girl or those pair of ballads the HFPA nominated don't hold a candle to the actual winners of their respective years. I believe she had no other eligible contenders (unless you count Gambler that was practically written out of her discography).
Elazul -- i mean she's had so many incredible movie songs -- they clearly just hate her at the Academy.
LIVE TO TELL - at close range
CRAZY FOR YOU / GAMBLER - visionquest
INTO THE GROOVE - desperately seeking susan
WHO'S THAT GIRL / CAUSING A COMMOTION - who's that girl
THIS USED TO BE MY PLAYGROUND - league of their own
I'LL REMEMBER - with honors
BEAUTIFUL STRANGER - austin powers
DIE ANOTHER DAY - die another day
Edwin -- i've decided to throw CRIMES OF THE FUTURE into my Oscar predictions despite what we've been hearing about it. I like a wild card gutsy call and maybe the acclaim will be strong over to get people over the genre hump?
Nathaniel: Into the Groove & Live to Tell were likely ineligible as they might not have been specifically written for movies. Crazy for You was not written by her. The Who's That Girl songs were quite uninspired, recapturing previous hits so I can't say that was an actual snub. And those two 1990s ballads were no match for the Aladdin/The Lion King juggernauts anyway.
But yeah it's obvious they intentionally shunned her when they awarded two songs not written by her but originally performed by her!
I'll Remember wouldn't have won over The Lion King songs, but it was a big hit and would have been a worthy nominee. It's certainly a better composition than "Look What Love Has Done" from the classic film Junior (which actually sounds like a present-day Diane Warren submission!)