Emmy Category Analysis: Lead Actor in a Drama Series

By Christopher James

Lee Jung-Jae won this category at the SAG Awards. Could he pull off a similar feat at the Emmys?

It’s a battle between old and new. The men of Succession face off against each other, while promising newcomers hope to sneak in and take the win. In particular, Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), who won this prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Adam Scott is a wild card for Severance, which earned fourteen nominations for its first season. Add in a couple of men contending for their show’s final season (or at least first half of a final season) and you have yourself a real race. Jeremy Strong is the only previous winner in this particular category, though Jason Bateman has an Emmy as well. Will Strong prevail again, or will one of his challengers overthrow him?

THE NOMINEES

• Jason Bateman - Ozark - Episode: “Pound of Fleah and Still Kickin” (Season 4, Episode 11)

  • Description (IMDB): Ruth makes a play for the casino with some help from a familiar face. Wendy cozies up to Omar's sister and arranges a meeting with Clare.

• Brian Cox - Succession - Episode: “All the Bells Say” (Season 3, Episode 9)

  • Description (IMDB): Matsson's vision for the business leads Shiv and Roman to manage the fallout, while Logan weighs his options.

• Lee Jung-jae - Squid Game - Episode: “Gganbu” (Season 1, Episode 6)

  • Description (IMDB): Players pair off for the fourth game. Gi-hun grapples with a moral dilemma, Sang-woo chooses self-preservation and Sae-byeok shares her untold story.

• Bob Odenkirk - Better Call Saul - Episode: “Plan and Execution” (Season 6, Episode 7)

  • Description (IMDB): Jimmy and Kim deal with a last-minute snag in their plan; Lalo is forced to make an unexpected move.

• Adam Scott - Severance - Episode: “Good News About Hell” (Season 1, Episode 1)

  • Description (IMDB): Mark is promoted to lead a team who've had their memories surgically divided between their work and personal lives.

• Jeremy Strong - Succession - Episode: “Too Much Birthday” (Season 3, Episode 7)

  • Description (IMDB): At Kendall's lavish birthday bash, Shiv and Roman try to arrange a meeting with Lukas Matsson, a tech mogul who recently snubbed Logan.

ANALYSIS
Which of the two Succession men is most likely to win?  On paper, Jeremy Strong is a stronger bet. He won the award for season two back in 2020 and recently triumphed at the (unaired) Golden Globes. It remains to be seen if that much-discussed New Yorker article may have also colored the industry's perception of Strong. All of this could theoretically help Brian Cox’s chances of being the winner from Succession, the nomination leader in the Drama categories with 25 (!) nominations. Looking at the submitted episodes, it becomes clear that season three belonged to Cox. The season finale finds Cox’s Logan taking matters into his own hands, making deals behind his children’s backs. A final confrontation between Logan and his children drives home the central tension between the generations. Strong’s Kendall and the other siblings are all fighting over what Logan has built, rather than building something of their own. Meanwhile, Jeremy Strong leans into his persona of mocking self-seriousness in his submission. Kendall throws an elaborate birthday as a way to spite his siblings. Kendall’s rudeness and pettiness only further illuminates his sadness. It’s a great performance. However, when Strong won last, it was because he was able to endear the audience to Kendall, a troubled sad sack who stands up to power. In this season, the relative moral superiority belongs to Logan, as could the Emmy.

Clearly, Succession could also split its votes in the acting categories. This would help SAG winner Lee Jung-jae, who could ride the popularity of Squid Game to a win here. While most newcomers submit the pilot as a way to introduce voters to their character, Lee Jung-jae wisely submitted “Gganbu,” the most emotionally involving episode of the show. His character, Seong Gi-hun, is forced to compete in a one-on-one marble game with Oh Il-nam (Oh Yeong-su), an old man with dementia. Throughout the episode, Seong Gi-hun is forced to choose whether to take advantage of the old man to stay alive or to choose fairness. It’s an interesting humanistic struggle that Lee shoulders well. If voters actually watch the episodes (a big if) this savvy choice could secure the win.

Could Adam Scott win his first Emmy for the Apple TV+ hit, "Severance?"While Squid Game was the most popular show in the world at the time of the SAG Awards, Severance has recency in its favor as a brand new sensation. The Apple TV+ thriller continues to build momentum as more people discover it post-Emmy nods. This could be great news for its leading man, Adam Scott, who delivers an incredible performance. Scott plays Mark, a man who has undergone the "severance" procedure, where his brain is severed so his “work self” never knows what’s happening in his personal life, and vice versa. It’s a tricky concept that comes to life thanks to Scott’s deft performance. He’s both our entryway into the “severed” work life, engaging in the darkest of Office Space jokes, and the dramatic engine as a sad sack outside of work who seeks to uncover what might be going on behind the office doors. It’s all a matter of voters watching the show. If the viewership continues to grow, this would be a fantastic place to reward it

Better Call Saul continues to amass buzz heading into its final episodes. However, shows don’t often see their biggest awards hauls on the first half of a finale. It’s usually for the final batch of episodes (see Breaking Bad and Mad Men as examples of shows that broke their final season in half for Emmy purposes). It doesn’t help that Odenkirk’s submission, while a great hour of television, doesn’t feature him all that much or show his range. If anything, Patrick Fabian comes off as best in show as a calculating lawyer that Saul gets the better of. Both Kyle Chandler (Friday Night Lights) and Matthew Rhys (The Americans) pulled off surprise wins in this category for the final season of their well regarded shows. This momentum for Odenkirk could pay off next Emmy season but this one? Unlikely.

In contrast, Ozark did air its final episodes, so this is the last chance the Emmys have to reward Jason Bateman. However, buzz for the show has been waning, as it dropped from 18 nominations last season to 13 this season. Bateman’s submission features a particularly wild final scene where his character, Marty Byrd, beats a man to a pulp out of traffic frustration. Outside of that moment, there’s little else to write home about. Voters may feel that Bateman’s directing win a couple years ago counts as rewarding Bateman for his work on the show.

Will Win: Lee Jung-jae - Squid Game
Should Win: Adam Scott - Severance
Spoiler: Brian Cox - Succession

WHO ARE YOU ROOTING FOR?

MORE ANALYSIS

• Lead Actress - Comedy Series
• Lead Actress - Drama Series
• Lead Actress - Limited or Anthology Series
• Lead Actor - Comedy Series
• Lead Actor - Limited or Anthology Series

• Supporting Actress – Comedy Series
• Supporting Actress – Drama Series
• Supporting Actress – Limited Series
• Supporting Actor – Drama Series

• Guest Acting - Comedy Series
• Guest Acting - Drama Series

• Writing/Directing – Comedy Series
• Writing/Directing – Drama Series
• Writing/Directing – Limited Series

• Costume Design – Contemporary
• Costume Design – Fantasy/Sci-Fi
• Costume Design - Period

Comments

[jules]

I think you underestimate Better Call Saul's chances. AMC likely scheduled the second half of the final season to air as Emmy voting was occuring in order to maximize its chances of winning for its penultimate season. Yes, Rhys and Chandler won for the final seasons of their shows, but it was a different environment, with different timing. (I also don't think episode submissions much matter... voters vote for the entirety of the performance.)

I would not be surprised to see both Odenkirk and Seehorn take Emmys as recognition for both halves of the final season.

[Paranoid Android]

100% agree with what was said above. BCS had an excellent set of episodes airing right as voting took place — it literally may be the most recent thing voters watched. And it has a groundswell of “why hasn’t this won before?” momentum. I think the Succession men could split and hand the trophy to Odenkirk. .

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