Tony Awards Tonight (!!!) Last Minute Predictions

by Patrick Ball

"Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical" will perform tonight despite being shut out of the nominations. Photo credit: Matthew Murphy

The day is upon us, the 2023 Tony Awards are here! But, this isn’t your grandma’s Tony Awards, expect a bit of a different show this year. Due to complications from the ongoing WGA writer’s strike, the awards show telecast was initially canceled, then was subsequently given the green light providing it does not rely upon a written script. In other words, we won’t see any presenters reaching for their glasses to read a teleprompter. Also expect little banter or much at all from host Ariana Debose after her (presumably not original) Opening Number. It looks to be mostly a straightforward show of performances and awards. And boy, they’ve packed the show with performances. Not only are all the nominated musicals performing, but we can expect performances from non-nominated shows like A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical, a performance from Lea Michele currently starring in last season’s Funny Girl, then a misfire, now a smash, and one from Joaquina Kalukango, last year’s Actress in a Musical winner who brought the house down with her performance of “Let it Burn” from the ill-fated Paradise Square. 

And how was the year in “thea-turh” on The American Stage? From the looks of these nominees, it was a great season...

Many celebrated and long-awaited revivals, stars from stage and screen flexing their theatrical shops to acclaim, more Pulitzer winners playing concurrently than ever before, and a new standard for diversity. Economically, Broadway is still recovering from Pandemic Shutdown times, so not all shows were able to run as long as hoped, but we’re heading in the right direction. Below are predictions and analysis of every category awarded tonight as we celebrate another year of stars, stalwarts, and good old-fashion theater magic in New York City, and hopefully coming soon to stages near you. 

Best Play

Ain’t No Mo’ – Jordan E. Cooper

Between Riverside and Crazy– Stephen Adly Guirgis

Cost of Living– Martyna Majok

Fat Ham – James Ijames

PREDICTED WINNER -- Leopoldstadt – Tom Stoppard

We have a fascinating lineup of nominees for Best Play this year: 3 Pulitzer Prize for Drama winners and a diverse set of newcomers going toe to toe with legendary playwright Tom Stoppard. Between Riverside and Crazy and Cost of Living completed their well-regarded runs early in the season. Ain’t No Mo’, an experimental and raucous comedic critique of American race relations burned bright but closed quickly. Fat Ham, (which is a riff on Hamlet set at a Southern style BBQ with all the dramatic trimmings), is the downtown darling that’s made its way uptown to the Broadway stage and is probably the “cool” choice to win. Ultimately, though, I think Leopoldstadt, purportedly the final play from Tom Stoppard, in an acclaimed Broadway staging will take home the trophy. The personal story of a Jewish family over generations in early 20th Century Vienna is grand, sweeping, and unfortunately ever-timely. I expect it to take home the Tony in a really fantastic year for plays on Broadway.

Best Musical

& Juliet

PREDICTED WINNER - Kimberly Akimbo

New York, New York

Shucked

Some Like it Hot

In what is seemingly a tight race between 3 of the 5 nominees, which direction will the voters go? Will they reward the small but emotionally resonant Kimberly Akimbo, adapted from David Lindsay-Abaire’s celebrated play. It would sit comfortablly right in line with recent winners like Fun Home, The Band’s Visit, and A Strange Loop.  Or will they go for the welcome Broadway brightness of Some Like it Hot? Without a doubt SLIH has the most tuneful original score of the year and is hoping to break the curse of the recent failed ‘man-in-a-dress’ musicals with its thoughtful character arc for J. Harrison Ghee’s starring role. Or will they pull an Avenue Q and go for Shucked, the crowd-pleasing (and corny, literally) musical comedy of the year? The delightful & Juliet and the mixed-reviewed New York, New York ( of Kander & Ebb & Miranda) will hope to win elsewhere. But, in the end, I think the wealth will be spread this year and the beating heart behind Kimberly Akimbo will get voters to check its box. But anything could happen!

Best Revival of a Play

PREDICTED WINNER - A Doll’s House

August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson

The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window

Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog

If the absolutely stellar revival of the stone-cold masterpiece that is Suzan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog had been running this spring I think it would take the award in a walk. But, the spare but powerful revival of A Doll’s House, in a fantastic new translation by Amy Herzog and led by a never better Jessica Chastain, has been both a box office beast and popping during the voting window. It will probably take the award here. 

Best Revival of a Musical

Into the Woods

Lerner & Lowe’s Camelot

PREDICTED WINNER - Parade

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

What a year for musical revivals it was! Into the Woods proved concert staging done right, and genius casting, can make classic material feel like it's brand-new. And a shiny new Broadway revival of Sweeney Todd with Josh Groban and the comedic whirlwind that is Annaleigh Ashford, AND a full orchestra?? Gifts upon gifts. But, for me, the undeniable jewel of the season is Michael Arden’s production of Jason Robert Brown and Alfred Uhry’s 1999 cult classic Parade. Beautifully cast, beautifully conceived, and featuring some of the most beautiful music to grace a Brodway stage, well since 1999, it’s a can’t-miss production. The winner at the recent Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards, it’s the front-runner for the Tony. 

Book of a Musical

& Juliet – David West Read

Kimberly Akimbo – David Lindsay-Abaire

New York, New York – David Thompson and Sharon Washington

PREDICTED WINNER - Shucked – Robert Horn

Some Like it Hot – Matthew López and Amber Ruffin

I’m really tempted to go with Kimberly Akimbo here, but I think this will be one of the few obvious places voters will know they can reward Shucked. The book is chock-full of laugh out loud jokes, and despite some of the dramatic structure issues of the show, I think it will bring home another trophy to (recent winner for Tootsie) Robert Horn.

Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics Written for the Theatre)

Almost Famous – music by Tom Kitt, lyrics by Cameron Crowe & Tom Kitt

Kimberly Akimbo – music by Jeanine Tesori, lyrics by David Lindsay-Abaire

KPOP – music and lyrics by Helen Park and Max Vernon

Shucked – music and lyrics by Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally

PREDICTED WINNER - Some Like it Hot – music by Marc Shaiman, lyrics by Scott Wittman and Marc Shaiman

Really nice to see a couple shows that closed early in the season represented here. Some Like it Hot looks to be the obvious winner with its absolutely delightful score from industry titans Shaiman and Wittman. 

Direction of a Play

Saheem Ali – Fat Ham

Jo Bonney – Cost of Living

Jamie Lloyd – A Doll’s House

PREDICTED WINNER - Patrick Marber – Leopoldstadt

Stevie Walker-Webb – Ain’t No Mo’

Max Webster – Life of Pi

This could go a couple different ways. Webster is directing a technical marvel that was a huge winner at London’s Oliviers, Marber is directing the front-runner for Best Play, Lloyd is representing probably his best received pared-down revival yet, and Ali has the vibrant staging of Fat Ham. I think it will probably come down to Webster vs Marber, with everyone getting a couple votes, and Marber coming out on top. But look out for Ali --  this one is truly up for grabs. 

Direction of a Musical

PREDICTED WINNER - Michael Arden – Parade

Lear deBessonet – Into the Woods

Casey Nicholaw – Some Like it Hot

Jack O’Brien – Shucked

Jessica Stone – Kimberly Akimbo

I think the only challenger to Parade in this category is the talented Jessica Stone of Kimberly Akimbo, but this award is Michael Arden’s to lose. After being nominated for his lauded conceptual revivals of Once on this Island and Spring Awakening, his straightforward but deeply powerful staging of Parade will be the one that makes voters say “it’s his time”. And, for me, they’ll be dead on. 

Lead Actor in a Play

Corey Hawkins – Susan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog 

PREDICTED WINNER - Sean Hayes – Goodnight, Oscar 

Stephen McKinley Henderson – Between Riverside and Crazy 

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II  – Susan Lori-Parks’ Topdog/Underdog  

Wendell Pierce – Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

This category slays. Four jaw-dropping performances from four very different black actors at the top of their craft, and a virtuoso display of range and talent from the ever-valuable out actor Sean Hayes. Hayes’ mixture of comedy, drama, and thrilling piano in the currently running Goodnight, Oscar would be award worthy in any year, but he has the edge largely because the other nominees’ shows have been long closed come Tony time. But what a great year and what fabulous performances from all five. 

Lead Actress in a Play

Jessica Chastain – A Doll’s House

PREDICTED WINNER - Jodie Comer – Prima Facie 

Jessica Hecht – Summer, 1976

Audra McDonald – Ohio State Murders

In a year with, apparently, few female actors with billing appropriate to make them eligible for this category, we have only four nominees. Which unfortunately left out the criminally under-rewarded Laura Linney, currently starring opposite nominee (and equally wonderful) Jessica Hecht in Summer, 1976. This also marks 6-time Tony winning LEGEND Audra McDonald’s 10th nomination for her stellar work in the blink and you missed it revival of Ohio State Murders. But death matching for the award will be two very different STAR performances from Jodie Comer and Jessica Chastain. Chastain is on an awards roll right now (with both the Oscar & the SAG recently) and was thrilling in A Doll’s House, holding the audience’s attention for every second even though 99% of her performance is while seated in an (oft rotating) chair. But, Jodie Comer, fresh off an Olivier Award for this role, is a blazing supernova in the one-woman legal drama Prima Facie. With a role of a lifetime and the only major chance to award the (surprisingly not nominated for Best Play) play, Jodie has the edge. 

Lead Actor in a Musical

Christian Borle – Some Like it Hot

PREDICTED WINNER - J. Harrison Ghee – Some Like it Hot

Josh Groban – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Brian d’Arcy James – Into the Woods

Ben Platt – Parade

Colton Ryan – New York, New York

Platt is sensational in Parade, but isn’t really crying out for a second Tony in just a couple of years. Ryan is wonderful in a mannered but bravura performance in NY,NY, and what a voice! Groban and Borle are both old pros doing great work, and James was without a doubt the best Baker I have ever seen in the 1,000ish times I’ve seen Into the Woods over the years. But J. Harrison Ghee is having a star-making moment over at The Shubert Theatre and has won every major precursor leading up to the Tony. Count this one as going to Some Like it Hot.

Lead Actress in a Musical

Annaleigh Ashford – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Sara Bareilles – Into the Woods 

PREDICTED WINNER - Victoria Clark – Kimberly Akimbo

Lorna Courtney – & Juliet

Micaela Diamond – Parade

As it is most years, this is THE category of the night. What a group. And this doesn’t even include Six alumna Anna Uzele, who while NY,NY is a flawed show, is burning bright on that stage every night. But, in the hunt this year is: Sara Bareilles with her first Tony nomination for acting, the vocal powerhouse that is & Juliet’s delightful new star Lorna Courtney, Tony winner Victoria Clark who probably wins the highest degree of difficulty award for playing a teenage girl with an aging disease in Kimberly Akimbo, Annaleigh Ashford making comedic choices that feel unbelievably fresh and exciting in Sweeney Todd (and winning the Drama League Distinguished Performance Award in the process) and my heart’s winner, Parade’s compelling and stunning heroine Micaela Diamond. This is Clark’s to lose, but Ashford is coming on strong with buzz buzz buzz. Still Clark is beloved in the industry and works magic as the title character, so I’m going with Kimberly on this one. (But crossing fingers for Micaela!)

Featured Actor in a Play

Jordan E. Cooper – Ain’t No Mo’ 

Samuel L. Jackson – August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson 

Arian Moayed – A Doll’s House 

PREDICTED WINNER - Brandon Uranowitz – Leopoldstadt

David Zayas – Cost of Living

Uranowitz has been racking up nominations over the years and seems poised to pounce here. I really want to go with Moayed, who in one of my favorite performances in years, plays Torvald in A Doll’s House with such deliciously icky condescension that he almost runs away with the whole thing. But, I think I'll stick with Uranowitz who has the precursors on his side. 

Featured Actress in a Play

Nikki Crawford – Fat Ham 

PREDICTED WINNER - Crystal Lucas-Perry – Ain’t No Mo’ 

Miriam Silverman – The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window 

Katy Sullivan – Cost of Living 

Kara Young – Cost of Living

I honestly have no idea where to go with this one, but Crystal Lucas-Perry is a rising theatrical star and had such a showcase moment in Ain’t No Mo’ that I wonder if the chance to make sure the show takes home something may take her over the top. But, look out for Crawford or Sullivan to surprise here. 

Featured Actor in a Musical

Kevin Del Aguila – Some Like it Hot 

Kevin Cahoon – Shucked 

Justin Cooley – Kimberly Akimbo 

Jordan Donica – Lerner & Lowe’s Camelot

PREDICTED WINNER - Alex Newell – Shucked

Shucked’s book may be zinger after zinger, but its score, though tuneful, is a bit too banal to really stick. But, a major exception comes mid-Act 1 when Alex Newell of Glee and Once on this Island fame absolutely brings the house down with by far the show’s best song: “Independently Owned”. None of the other nominees have a moment quite so electric and impressive and Newell, a gifted vocalist long overdue for a proper breakout, looks like they may capitalize here. 

Featured Actress in a Musical    

Julia Lester – Into the Woods 

Ruthie Ann Miles – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street 

PREDICTED WINNER - Bonnie Milligan – Kimberly Akimbo

NaTasha Yvette Williams – Some Like it Hot

Betsy Wolfe – & Juliet

[EDITOR'S NOTE: Patrick left nothing but a series of question marks on this one. And it is an impressive lineup. Ruthie Ann Miles makes a meal of the usually less impressive "beggar's woman" role in Sweeney Todd and she's a previous well-liked winner. NaTasha Yvette Williams is great fun as bandleader "Sweet Sue" in Some Like It Hot, Betsy Wolfe has the advantage of being a a huge role as "Anne Hathaway" (Shakespeare's wife) and if she were a bigger star with before the title billing, you would have probably seen her in the Lead category. But in the end I'm predicting Bonnie Milligan who is flat out hilarious in Kimberly Akimbo as the titular character's amoral auntie. ]

Best Choreography

Steven Hoggett – Sweeney Todd; The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Casey Nicholaw – Some Like it Hot

PREDICTED WINNER - Susan Stroman – New York, New York

Jennifer Weber – & Juliet

Jennifer Weber – KPOP

This is a chance to award NY,NY, its best element, and legendary director/choreographer Susan Stroman all at once. My vote would be for Nicholaw’s inspired and joyful SLIH steps, and I actually really enjoyed Hoggett’s work on Sweeney. But, in general this is a strong category this year and all the nominated work is great. 

Scenic Design of a Play

Miriam Buether – Prima Facie

PREDICTED WINNER - Tim Hatley & Andrzej Goulding – Life of Pi

Rachel Hauck – Good Night, Oscar

Richard Hudson – Leopoldstadt

Dane Laffrey & Lucy Mackinnon – A Christmas Carol

The technical marvel that is Life of Pi is bound to rack up a few trophies in the technical categories. We’ll start with Tim Hatley and Andrzej Goulding’s ingenious scenic design.

Scenic Design of a Musical

PREDICTED WINNER - Beowulf Borritt – New York, New York

Mimi Lien – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street 

Scott Pask – Shucked

Scott Pask – Some Like it Hot

Michael Yeargan & 59 Productions – Lerner & Lowe’s Camelot

A gorgeous mix of fire escapes, skyscraper beams, and Manhattanhenge sunsets make up Borritt’s fantastic design for New York, New York.

Best Costume Design of a Play

PREDICTED WINNER - Tim Hatley, Nick Barnes, & Finn Caldwell – Life of Pi

Dominique Fawn Hill – Fat Ham

Brigitte Reiffenstuel – Leopoldstadt

Emilio Sosa – Ain’t No Mo’

Emilio Sosa – Good Night, Oscar

The most memorable and playful of these is Sosa’s work for Ain’t No Mo’, but I’m going to go with Life of Pi again here for Hatley, Barnes, and Caldwell’s lovely work. 

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Gregg Barnes – Some Like it Hot

Clint Ramos & Sophia Choi – KPOP

Susan Hilferty – Parade

Jennifer Moeller – Lerner & Lowe’s Camelot

PREDICTED WINNER - Paloma Young – & Juliet

Donna Zakowska – New York, New York

A chance to reward & Juliet, in a year without a show that really screams “costumes!”, I think Paloma Young’s exuberant modern Shakesearan garb will take this one. 

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Neil Austin – Leopoldstadt

Natasha Chivers – Prima Facie

Jon Clark – A Doll’s House

Bradley King – Fat Ham

PREDICTED WINNER - Tim Lutkin – Life of Pi

Jen Schriever – Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Ben Stanton – A Christmas Carol

Predicting another trophy for Life of Pi. But how great is the lighting in Prima Facie?! Another strong category.

Lighting Design in a Musical

Ken Billington – New York, New York

Lap Chi Chu – Lerner & Lowe’s Camelot

Heather Gilbert – Parade

Howard Hudson – & Juliet

Natasha Katz – Some Like it Hot

PREDICTED WINNER - Natasha Katz – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Predicting perennial fave in this category Natasha Katz to notch a win in Sweeney Todd’s belt for her spooky lighting design. 

Best Sound Design of a Play

Carolyn Downing – Life of Pi

Joshua D. Reid – A Christmas Carol

Ben & Max Ringham – A Doll’s House

PREDICTED WINNER - Ben & Max Ringham – Prima Facie

Jonathan Deans & Taylor Williams – Ain’t No Mo’

Prima Facie has particularly standout sound design, so thinking this may steal one technical award away from Life of Pi. But, we’ll see!

Sound Design in a Musical

Kai Harada – New York, New York

Scott Lehrer & Alex Neumann – Into the Woods

PREDICTED WINNER - Gareth Owen – & Juliet

John Shivers – Shucked

Nevin Steinberg – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street 

Another clear standout element, Gareth Owen’s sound work in & Juliet gives Shakespearean rockstar energy and would richly deserve the win here. 

Best Orchestrations

PREDICTED WINNER - Charlie Rosen & Bryan Carter – Some Like it Hot

John Clancy – Kimberly Akimbo

Daryl Waters & Sam Davis – New York, New York

Bill Sherman & Dominic Fallacaro – & Juliet

Jason Howland – Shucked

The jazziest and most satisfyingly new “Broadway” score of the season, I’m predicting Rosen and Carter’s jubilant orchestrations for Some Like it Hot for the Tony this year. 

The Tony Awards air from 6:30-8 EST on Pluto TV and then move to CBS and Paramount+ at 8 EST tonight, Sunday June 11th.

Comments

[Patrick B]

LOL thank you for taking Featured Actress in a musical @nathaniel! I was struggling with that one. Hoping for a great night tonight.

[thevoid99]

A performance from Lea Michele? BOO!!!!!!