First Round Oscar Predix - Picture / Director
Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 1:00PM by Nathaniel R
Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in "Maestro" (Netflix)
As noted in Best Actor & Best Supporting Actor, we're pretending as if the strike will be resolved and movies will actually arrive later this year (because if we don't predictions will be nightmarishly impossible). So let's look at Best Picture and Best Director. What might the future hold for us in these two categories?
EARLY BIRD DIRECTORS
It's possible that we've already seen 60% of the Best Director list (Greta Gerwig, Chris Nolan, Celine Song) but that would be highly unusual. This isn't 1972 where the two biggest contenders (Cabaret & The Godfather) had already been popular for literally over a year when they dominated Oscar night. The Oscar formulas and awards season release patterns have calcified in the half century since then. The earth still orbits the sun at the same speed as it did decades earlier, but time (at least in pop culture) has sped up considerably; you're an "old" movie much quicker now...
"Past Lives" brilliant opening scene (A24)
Still, there's something to be said for early releases in Oscar season and the 'rest period' between release and campaigning does inarguably benefit some films. Will Barbenheimer still be a thing next winter or will the industry deem Barbie too "silly" for the industry's top awards given their historic aversion to comedy... even while admiring Greta Gerwig's historic accomplishment? It seems more likely that Oppenheimer -- which checks all Oscar boxes (including a weirdly under-awarded director) -- will survive until the nominees are read out.
Will the refractory period between successful release and campaign be a blessing to Past Lives? The jewel of the early summer is unusually modest (on its surface) in awards player terms but people will have a lot of time to realize how much they cherish it / how brilliant it is by the time they're voting. It could happen in big categories with the right campaign.
For now we're predicting that Oppenheimer and Past Lives will be in the final Picture/Director lineup while Barbie will miss both. The least anxiety-inducing unseen Best Picture calls (given that there are so many slots) are Scorsese's Killers of the Flowers Moon, Bradley Cooper's Bernstein biopic Maestro, Alexander Payne's dramedy The Holdovers, and the sci-fi sequel Dune Part Two. Still bigger goliaths have fallen if the reception wasn't warm when they did finally screen. (And yes it's possible that any of them could be delayed. People have been whispering that about Dune especially.)
Valid questions about all of the titles rush in...
"The Color Purple" (2023 version)
Will The Color Purple be relentlessly compared to the original ... Even if it is will that matter? And how many articles will each and every awards site do comparing the two films nomination tallies and what it means?
Will Saltburn be a sophomore slump for Emerald Fennell or proof that she's a major auteur?
Will A24 put all their weight behind Past Lives or will The Iron Claw make a splash at festivals and force them to
split or shift focus?
Will Poor Things be too bizarre for voters or just weird enough to delight newish Lanthimos stans?
Will Boys in the Boat or Ferrari prove irresistible "dad movies" or be so good that that sounds stupidly reductive in hindsight?
Will challenging international films like Anatomy of a Fall or The Zone of Interest be able to capitalize on critical fervor and crossover to US interest?
Which stealth contender will surprise everyone months from now?
What will make the media most angry about the eventual Best Director list?
Which movie will sail to a Best Picture nomination despite being hopelessly mediocre?
ETCETERA
Check out the Picture and Director charts and report back?
What other questions would you add to this exhausting list?
Best Director, Best Picture, Celine Song, Chris Nolan, Directors, Greta Gerwig
Reader Comments (17)
Maybe I'm completely off here, but I just don't see folks remembering Oppenheimer too much at the end of the year. I don't think folks are embracing it as Nolan's masterpiece, and it was so early in the year. I'm probably wrong, but that's my gut.
I wonder how many titles will be pushed out of the window due to the strikes. Will AMPAS do something like the did at the end of 2020, when they extended their window well into the new year? (I believe the plan is to push The Color Purple?)
The Color Purple is a good musical, but I'm nervous about how it will do. Having seen it, it's rather stagey, and while I'm sure it will be opened up, I do wonder how that will go. I also think so much of the musical hinges on a strong lead performance, and I'm not sure Fantasia has that in her (though maybe). I'd feel more confident if they'd cast Cynthia in this. I also think a lot of musical films lately have been ugly and poorly thought out, so I'm sold on this one being any different. Still, I see it as a BP nominee, but not in director.
I really hope Past Lives gets remembered outside of screenplay.
I just don't see the Academy passing up BARBENHEIMER phenomena so in that I'm pretty sure Barbie will sneak into Picture esp with I'm assuming broad support for Gerwig, Baumbach, Gosling & Robbie plus the technical branches. I do agree that Gerwig will miss Director.
Do we think the 'Jewface' accusations that currently being said about Bradley Cooper
(https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/aug/16/bradley-cooper-in-jewface-storm-after-leonard-bernstein-trailer-reveals-prosthetic-nose)
are going to impact the reception of Maestro and subsequent buzz? Especially as Cooper won't be supporting the movie through the festival circuit.
Personally I wasn't sold by the teaser trailer (future YNMS column, perhaps) so maybe he'll be having the sophomore slump...
I feel like Barbie's success, both critically and commercially, cannot be ignored. It's like Top Gun: Maverick last year. It's making the best picture lineup, even if it doesn't score a director nod or any acting nominations, although I think the latter are possible. It's definitely going to pick up some technical noms, maybe even wins, too.
Oppenheimer is definitely making it in for Pic/Dir. Just nuts to think it won't.. like Nathaniel says, it checks every box.
Barbie seems like a likely Best Pic nominee (they can't avoid the huge blockbusters that critics also like, a la Black Panther, Avatar, Top Gun), but I do agree that voters will find it too "silly" for Director.
I seem to be outside the popular opinion. I am quite taken with the trailer for Maestro. The film could easily be an unseen Douglas Sirk classic. It immediately leaped to the top of my must see list.
Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Past Lives all have the kind of showcase work and passion to get into both Picture and Director - Past Lives’ reviews remind me a lot of Manchester by the Sea or Minari, and there’s at least one small-scale writer-focused film in Director each year.
Like Cash says I think Barbie is too big a phenomenon to leave out of Picture at this point - it may be a comedy but it’s a Billion Dollar comedy, and will be seen as a chance to show how progressive they are too. Throw in a likely SAG nod and potential acting nods, plus design contenders, and I think this is more comparable as a contender to Black Panther than Bridesmaids.
I feel pretty bullish on The Zone of Interest’s chances too - the reviews out of Cannes were pretty special, it will appeal heavily to the international bloc, and though it isn’t a war movie exactly it’s adjacent to it. I’m fairly confident it’ll ultimately get into Picture AND Director, with Glazer as a respected auteur getting the International/Arthouse vote that benefits people like Ostlund, Field, or Hamaguchi.
Having seen it, I personally can’t picture them going big on Anatomy of a Fall - beyond Huller’s central performance it’s a pretty plain courtroom drama, which is perhaps unfair but it lacks the incisiveness or transcendence of something like TAR which I have seen it compared to. I saw it at a packed festival premiere and almost everyone I spoke to about it afterwards was left a little underwhelmed. May December on the other hand is phenomenal but it is SUCH a high-wire juggle of tones, really funny while focusing on some very dark subject matter. As much as it’s incredible, I wonder if middlebrow voters won’t be thoroughly put off.
I think the academy will have a very hard time passing up the Barbenheimer opportunity in Best Picture, and maybe even director.
Also having seen May December, I think with the right campaign it could be a big hit. I've seen it twice with crowds and everyone ate it up - it plays really well. It is a bit left field but I really hope Netflix put money behind it because it is fantastic.
Like Duncan, I'd love to see Huller in Actress - she is brilliant. I also agree Zone of Interest seems like something directors will really get behind. Glazer's respectability is only growing.
I have never thought Celine Song was in for Director - an unknown with a quiet small picture is almost never a recipe for success there, unless we're talking about the one foreign film breakthrough of the year. Gerwig has the opposite problem - the blockbuster that might make make them jealous and turn up their noses, as they ironically have with Nolan several times in the past. I expect it to boil down to Nolan vs. Scorsese since Villeneuve seems to be claiming Dune will have a third film. I hope I'm wrong about Gerwig missing... fingers crossed. (It'd be really gross if Barbie missed BP too, though.)
Loving your work as always Nat! More please - we don’t see you here often anymore but I will EAT my hat and clothes if Barbie misses BP. If Top Gun Maverick and Avatar 2 made it in last year, there is no way Barbie is missing - particularly given the strikes - the academy will want to reward creative vision that made bank and the Barbenheimer narrative is way too much for the thirsty academy to pass up.
I agree with Gerwig missing director - I can see that being Scorsese, Nolan, Lee, Fennell and Glazer at this point with Gerwig and Lanthimos just missing but Barbie is NOT missing picture and I think you know that 😂
I’ll echo what several commenters have already suggested and say that Jonathan Glazer seems very well positioned to be nominated for Best Director, and I think the fact that he takes such long breaks between films will help him since the directors will surely realize they may not get another chance to nominate him for a while. I can see him near-sweeping the critics’ prizes, which would quell any doubts about the film not being visible enough for the Academy to take notice (as the success of Drive My Car showed).
Imagine the outrage if the Academy deems Barbie too "silly" to nominate for Best Picture when they've nominated Top Gun: Maverick, Black Panther, Joker, and Bohemian Rhapsody in the past several years.
I think most of you are underestimating Gerwig in Director as well. Gerwig's vision, more than anything else, is the reason the film is such a success. She's not absolutely in, but she has a much better chance than Celine Song or the anonymous director of The Color Purple. Literally no one else could have made Barbie.
I don't know if these are released in time in the US, but if the are, I'd conser these too:
All of us strangers
The dead don't hurt
DogMan
Ezra
Flora and Son
Freud's last session
Hitman
Knox goes away
Leave the world behind
Lee
McCarthy
Memory
One life
Origin
Pain hustlers
Pot-au-feu
Rebel moon
Reptile
Rich flu
Verona
Wildcat
The early Maestro controversy feels like an allegation Harvey would have made during the thick of awards season to bring down his competition. It reminds me of Whoopi Goldberg's joke about negative campaigning and receiving an email that "Frodo Baggins was an anti-Semite."
He probably shouldn't have gone with the nose for a lot of reasons. But he also looks like an older Bernstein in pictures, but given that nothing was done to make Carey Mulligan look like Bernstein, it seems a bit wrong that he did it. However, I can't imagine this being something that derails the film if it's good. It does look great, and Carey looks really marvelous.
The top six looks pretty impenetrable right now. Like I can't see anyone else getting in. Maybe Maestro and/or Saltburn underperform but I do not think so. Only time will tell...
I haven't seen it obviously, but Jonathan Glazer seems like the sort of thing they would go for these days?