The Oscar Volleys are back for some post-nomination talks. Today, Abe Friedtanzer and Eurocheese discuss Best Original Screenplay...
ANORA | © NEON Rated
ABE: Eurocheese, always a pleasure to get to talk to you about movies! I think we got a great category this time - Best Original Screenplay - which is actually quite a competitive race! The WGA rules meant that only two of the Oscar nominees are recognized by that guild too, which did make room for one of my favorite movies of the year, My Old Ass. But at the Oscars we have a race that's legitimately a three-way competition. I think we can safely rule out September 5, a film which I think is excellent but which didn't get any other nominations, including Best Film Editing, so I can't see a scenario where it has a path to victory here.
Similarly, A Real Pain, initially conceived as a potential frontrunner, missed the Best Picture list and only scored one additional nomination (which it can probably win) for Kieran Culkin. It's hard to see it having enough support here. That brings us to the other three nominees. I would have said Anora was the clear number one pick here, but precursors aren't looking that way.
Where do you think the race stands?...
SEPTEMBER 5 | © Paramount Pictures
EUROCHEESE: I'd say you're right about September 5, despite its vocal support in small pockets (and I'm still sad Mike Leigh isn't here for his exceptional Hard Truths). I wouldn't be so quick to count A Real Pain out though. Even if it missed Best Picture (and we all know it was probably close), it's such a dialog-heavy film that the balance between its two leads helps the rapid fire responses shine. Even though Anora is one of my top films of the year, I'd hesitate before casting my own vite between them, and I'd imagine some Oscar voters will feel the same way. Being the frontrunner in Supporting Actor also means it's likely to be seen by many members, which is half the battle in staying relevant.
On the opposite side of the dialog-heavy coin, The Substance has been racking up a number of screenplay distinctions this season and is continuing to build momentum. I think the film is winning bonus points with voters for having such an original concept, taking a theme all too familiar to Hollywood and spinning a fresh take on it. Fargeat feels like an unlikely winner in Director, so if they were determined to recognize her for the film, this would be a logical place to do it, just as they did with Justine Triet. Looking at other recent winners, imaginative concepts have fared well here: Get Out, Parasite, Promising Young Woman and Everything Everywhere All At Once all fit this mold.
Anora is no slouch when it comes to originality though, either. The film's clever shifting storyline keeps the audience guessing where the last act will land, driving empathy with Ani as we feel equally on edge through the comedic beats along the way. The ultimate payoff of the finale lands so well because of the journey we have been on allows us to understand how far we have strayed from the initial Cinderella fairy tale, factoring in all the warning signs Baker threw us along the way. It's a sprawling, sometimes slapstick, sometimes darkly humorous rollercoaster, and one that has been hitting home with voters. As the winner of the PGA and DGA, Anora is looking like our frontrunner for Best Picture, and that might be enough to give it the edge here. Do you see a world where it only wins Picture and Director, without Screenplay?
THE BRUTALIST | © A24
ABE: As Anora has suddenly been catapulted to frontrunner status over the course of this conversation, it does feel very strange that it would win Best Picture without Best Original Screenplay and Best Actress. I'm still not sold on Baker winning Best Director, and this feels like a much safer place for him to score. I also know that some of the recent Best Picture winners that only picked up a few prizes still did end up winning the screenplay prize, so it's possible that Anora is now very far ahead, even if The Substance did pick up a bunch of prizes. I'd sooner bet on Demi Moore to take Best Actress and Anora to win this award rather than the other way around, which would be pretty crazy.
Narrowing it down to a two-way race, however, excludes the film that many thought was going to be the big Oscar dog for quite a while, The Brutalist. While some would surely argue that the three-and-a-half-hour epic could use a good trimming in the writing department, the story is on such a scale with some very memorable and impactful dialogue that it at least has to be considered. After a strong start at the Golden Globes, it now appears that the film is fading from competition, and so I think it would only win here if it had a resurgence in other categories beyond just Brady Corbet's direction and Adrien Brody's acting.
I feel safest predicting Anora to win given recent events even if I would have picked The Substance last week. All told, though Anora was nowhere to be found in any of the shortlisted races - which I never expected it to be - it showed up everywhere it was ever going to, while The Substance missed out on a few key technical categories and a supporting nomination for Margaret Qualley. I know that even a Best Picture nomination isn't critical for a win, though you have to go back 20 years to find an example of that, but I feel like a film that's done well overall is still likely to be the frontrunner. I'd actually put A Real Pain in third over The Brutalist based on the logic you used earlier. What's your predicted winner?
THE SUBSTANCE | © MUBI
EUROCHEESE: I was leaning towards Anora before its big wins, but it's never been a sure thing. I'm trying to take my own bias out of the conversation as I am not the biggest fan of The Brutalist, but there are certainly exchanges that stand out in the epic. Pearce and Brody's back and forth, especially in early scenes, contains very strong dialog, and Jones' fiery monologue near the end utilizes the tension the script has been building throughout the second half. Without dipping our toes in the Director race and how that might tie in to the choice here, I feel safe in saying between these two, Anora feels like the more likely winner. (It's hard to stay unbiased because I really want Sean Baker to end up with at least one Oscar on his shelf after this season, finally having him as a serious contender in multiple categories, and I know there are some Academy members that feel the same way.)
It feels like a slight to avoid discussing September 5, but in a movie full of tense pauses, the editing feels more like the star. Thinking of a comparable nominee, small scale tense thriller Margin Call comes to mind, but that film was all about betrayals and power struggles on screen. So much of this film relies on what we're not able to see, and while we get small snippets of characters' backgrounds, it's more about the reactions as information rolls out. It's hard to imagine a scenario where it could win, especially since the nomination itself felt like a victory for its fans.
Eisenberg felt like such a strong possibility here for most of the season, but looking at the winners in this category, the last time a winner didn't make the cut for Best Picture (and it pains me to say it) was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which was 20 years ago. Obviously this was back when we only had five Best Picture nominees, and it would take a much farther look back to find a winner that wouldn't have made its year's top 10. This category often finds itself in line with Director or Picture, and in a year where it doesn't feel like any single film is going to steamroll (though it can often be a surprise), it would be a dramatic upset. It would certainly make the winner for Picture harder to predict at the last minute, though, which would be fun.
Ultimately I'm landing here:
1. Anora (our Best Picture frontrunner and a perfect place to reward Baker)
2. The Substance (one of the most original concepts of the year, with a matching Cannes win)
3. A Real Pain (sharply observed, and hopefully we'll get more from Eisenberg on this level)
4. The Brutalist (possibly a hint of where the big prize is going)
5. September 5 (happy to be here)
ABE: I went through the exact same process in my research - I remembered Eternal Sunshine off the top of my head but forgot that films like Her were indeed nominated for Best Picture in an expanded field. I don't disagree with you on your rankings. I would have backed The Substance more before Anora's big wins, but I continue to feel that Moore vs. Madison might still go Moore's way and Best Director isn't set, but Baker not winning here after this big surge is unlikely. It's been a pleasure discussing these nominees, and I don't think I'd be too upset about any of them winning.
A REAL PAIN | © Searchlight Pictures
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Saturday, February 22, 2025 at 10:00AM
Reader Comments (2)
Such a lousy lineup! Where are THELMA, A DIFFERENT MAN, and BETWEEN THE TEMPLES??? Better than every nominee here!
This is the one category I really want The Substance to win, but I won't be disappointed if Anore or A Real Pain takes the trophy.