Things to Ponder Before Making Finally Final Oscar Nom Predix
Saturday, January 5, 2013 at 1:30PM I'm trying to decide how much to alter some of my current predictions when I post my final predictions (Tuesday night). Here are some things I'm pondering. Ponder with me in the comments. It's a Ponder Party!
The Academy ♥ Tarantino? OR...
The Internet ≠ The Academy
The Globes ≠ The Academy
Quentin Tarantino is indisputably a god of the internet. Were the internet a person it would be his insatiable whore, his dresser, his boyservant, his entire yes man entourage. But the Academy is not the internet. They never have been. (If they were Chris Nolan would have five directing nominations and not zero and The Social Network and Brokeback Mountain would have trounced The King's Speech and Crash). Consider: zero nominations for Kill Bill Vol. 1 (my choice for his best film and unarguably worthy in technical fields even if you don't much care for it as a whole). Zero nominations for Kill Bill Vol. 2. One measly nomination for Jackie Brown. "But they loved Pulp Fiction (7 nods, 1 win) and Inglorious Basterds (8 nods, 1 win)" - shouts everyone in the universe. They did, it's true. [more...]
But Pulp Fiction was inarguably seismic for cinema culture and Basterds was unexpectedly rich and new playing from a weird WW II angle (and WW II is quite possibly Oscar's single favorite thing)... what is Django Unchained bringing but for good timing, Basterds 2.0 (in some ways) and a surprisingly less-controversial-than-you'd-expect place to enjoy your bloodlust even in these nervous "is bloodlust okay?" times. Somehow Zero Dark Thirty has taken all the heat about how much inhumanity to man is okay for movies to indulge in even though Django is far more proud of its own bloodbath.
Many people point to the Golden Globes as evidence that Django is in for a major Oscar nom haul on Thursday but it's worth noting that the Globes are more Tarantino friendly than Oscar (and the Globes are very very Weinstein friendly in general). The HFPA liked Pulp & Basterds just as much as AMPAS but they also found ways to nominate both Kill Bills and Jackie Brown in major ways that Oscar didn't. I confess I have no idea what will happen with this movie. It could be anywhere from 2 to 10 nominations. Anywhere in there... but regardless I see it going home empty-handed on Oscar night.
Will Voters Finally Have a Fling With Lothario James Bond?
I've talked about the Academy's utter disinterest in the James Bond franchise often -- the franchise hasn't won an Oscar in 47 years and hasn't been nominated for one in over 30. And yet it still surprises people to read that only three (three!!!) James Bond theme songs have been Oscar nominated. The Spy Who Loved Me (1977) currently holds the Most Nominated title among Bond films with 3 nominations. But all that said, if there's a record that's broken this year with Oscar, wouldn't more love for Bond be among the possibilities given the team behind and in the film and the 50th anniversary hoopla? I guess it's worth considering that Oscar doesn't honor men until they have some years on them so maybe hitting the big "5 0" is just what 007 needed? Still... 30+ years without a nomination is telling. I'm still torn!
Les Misérables (OR... The Internet ≠ The Academy Pt. 2)
After a week of railing at the world about the shitty treatment and weirdly stalker-like hatred that the musical has engendered (if you hate it so much why are you taking every chance you have to be close to it with your virtual mouth? You're like Javert with a Valjean bone. Let it go, Asshole!) I've calmed down. I mean, I've been so good I haven't even mentioned that grenade-throwing David Denby piece in the New Yorker which... well, Jeremy Smith already said it...
Whether or not one hate or loves the film -- it's roughly 50/50 among people I know and roughly 90/10 according to the internet and roughly 10/90 from Cinema Score ;) -- guess who doesn't get to vote on the Oscars? The Internet! *ding ding ding* You are correct! At worst the hyperbolic Les Miz haters (who have decidedly outshouted the more tempered: 'sure the movie has flaws but I loved it!' fanbase) will shame a few voters away that might have been feeling more generous without the vitriol... but my guess is it also strengthens the resolve of some who love it into really barricading themselves in "Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me ♫"
We won't know until the 10th whether Oscar has real passion for it. The keys will be how well it does in editing, directing and acting where it seems most vulnerable: Jackman is not truly locked (no one in Best Actor is beyond DDL given the super tight Best Actor field 5 men are still super strong for 4 slots) despite a passionate engaging performance. Less than 8 nominations would suggest that Team Javert has won and finally killed off saintly Jean Valjean '24601'. More than 10 would mean it's unkillable and still a threat to win the gold.
The most frustrating thing for me in advance (and mark my words that this will happen!) is that even if it shows a big nomination total of 8+ the haters will pounce on every miss as evidence that the Academy agrees with them that it sucks. Expect lots of schadenfreude gloating -- and you know where -- if it misses any of the following: Picture, Director, Actor, Editing, or even Song. The gloating will happen even if it misses only one of those!
Did the Precursors Kill Amour and Beasts... or Will Quality Prevail?
Back in the early fall I felt all super-star pundit when I was predicting a substantial nomination tally for Amour (Pic, Dir, Screenplay, Actress, Foreign Film) and a very small but potent nomination bookend set (Pic & Screenplay only) for Beasts of the Southern Wild. I figured Haneke's critical momentum (he's now basically a God among the taste-making set) would pay off but the precursors weren't all that kind to the picture, really, relegating it to its Foreign Ghetto for the most part. "Stay in your box!" Remember the days when Foreign Films could break in to the Best Picture lineup? They seem so inexplicably long gone. And since the critics groups didn't put their muscle behind Hushpuppy preferring the movie stars and A list Hollywood efforts from Lincoln to Argo, Beasts might now be shut out entirely on Nomination morning.
How many Best Picture Nominees will we have?
The way I see it there are 6 sure things: Lincoln, Argo, Les Miz, Silver Linings, Life of Pi, and Zero Dark Thirty and then things get tricky. Given the many variables from precursors to right-now discussions to general Academy taste in the past I'd say there are 7 more distinct possibilites, from wouldn't surprise me at all biggies to dark horse "wow, they pulled it off!" darlings: Amour, Django Unchained, The Master, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Skyfall.
Current Academy rules allow a fluctuating number of nominees (5 to 10) for best picture and last year, the first year of the system, we got 9. Because of that everyone assumes we'll get 9 again. I'd like to go on record that I'm hoping for only 5 just to watch the internet's smug head explode since everyone is like 'these 9 or 10 films are locked!'
Who on Earth is Going to Take the Fifth Slot in EVERY Acting category?
Well... we'll save this to the final prediction article because damn this year is crowded.
Reader Comments (57)
The buzz around Arkin in the supporting cathegory is quite pathetic. He is okay at best in Argo, not a scene stealer in my eyes. Matthew McConaughey deserves a nomination along with Henry and De Niro.
I hope there will be 10 pictures nominated. Last year Im pretty sure Dragon Tattoo was the number 10th movie whic still pizzes me off
Seems like Chastain, Lawrence and Watts are locks while Cotillard and the rest of the bunch must fight. I dont think that Weisz will be nominated but she will be a welcomed surprise
I hope that Washington will be left out. I just dont like him. Sorry. And Daniel Day Lewis me think will make Oscar history with his 3rd best actor win. Yeah!
Best Picture:
Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Moonrise Kingdom, The Master, Amour, Silver Linings Playbook, Skyfall and Django Unchained
Best Director:
Haneke, Spielberg, Bigelow, Affleck and Tarantino
Best Actor:
Day-Lewis, Jackman, Cooper, Hawks and Phoenix
Best Actress:
Lawrence, Chastain, Watts, Cotillard and Rivera
Best Supp. Actor:
Lee Jones, De Niro, McConaughey, Henry and Clark
Best Supp. Actress:
Hathaway, Field, Ehle, Hunt and Adams
This is a fantastic article. It's great to hear about the issues that are making your predictions "tougher". We all have those hunches that makes us vacillate but it's great to hear from someone who is more "in the know" and has been doing this seriously for a while.
Anyway - the real reason I'm writing - and I'm sorry I'm coming at this late in the game when most of your readers have moved on to more recent blogs - but I wanted to put my two cents in. I am a movie musical fanatic - I LOVE them! - and I probably come at them with more of a bias than even you (to play off tr's comments) :-) However, as I'm sure you've surmised, I agree with more of what Denby wrote than not.
I did see the musical on stage years ago and all I could remember was the rousing revolution songs. All those emotional traumas didn't really register for me. In fact, I never could sort out all the tragic women in the show. I was really looking forward to the film version. OMG was I disappointed.
I won't go on and on about the reasons I hated it but I will add the one major blow for me was Hugh Jackman's singing. I'm sorry but I think Denby got it right - "braying" seems terribly apt. And I LOVE Hugh Jackman. Why the hell didn't they put some of those songs in a lower register?! And I am NOT one of those people who think musicals should sound "pretty". I LOVE emotion in singing but I found myself time and again distracted from the emotional moments by Jackman's sound.
And what a terrible script - misery and tragedy over and over and over again - I should think most writers understand that before you ruin a character's life you need to make the audience like them for at least a moment. Good lord what a ridiculous melodrama. Anyway - I'm sorry - I know it's hard to hear someone not like something you do but I was really disappointed and very dismayed - I wanted to like it so much.
So unlike everyone else who's written so far - I support and appreciate what Denby wrote. I think his desire for people to turn to the other musicals he mentioned was sound and just. And I appreciate how intense he was in his writing because I think it reflects a similar love for musical films that I have.
As for the Oscar nominations - I won't really mind when they get as many as they will because there is courage, talent, and artistry on screen. I do think Hugh Jackman gave an intense and emotionally true performance and Hathaway really did make the most of the ridiculous role she was given. And I'll even be OK if it gets a Best Picture nomination because it is a bold and artistic choice which was done with complete conviction and commitment. But if it gets anywhere near a screenplay nomination I'll vomit. And obviously the technical achievements will be well justified. As for director...well...it was bold and intensely done (although certainly repetitive - again, the script is AWFUL) I won't even mind Hooper if he gets it. I do love to see brave choices acknowledged when they are so thoroughly accomplished. But I definitely don't see any WINNERS at all - except maybe Hathaway - but only because I haven't seen Kidman or Dowd (unfortunately).
I will say I think the very best in show s Eddie Remayne. I found him moving and interesting. Of course - his role didn't require the histrionics that Jackman and Hathaway had to handle.
Thanks Nathaniel for providing a place where people can share their views. Evidently I really needed the chance to vent my feelings regarding this film and my disappointment.
The thing you said about Tarantino is 100% true.he is the God,no matter how many people like to bitch about him
I think "Django" is a likely nominee for both picture and direction. It opened huge with excellent reviews (equal to SLP on Metacritic) at the height of the balloting period. Too many supporting actor candidates (and in-house competition from Weinstein's other strong supporting candidates, DeNiro and Hoffman) make me think it will go without any acting nods, however; screenplay and 2-5 craft/tech nods should leave it with anywhere from 5-8 nods total...
I could see anywhere from 1-7 nods for "Skyfall," but doubt that it will make the picture lineup, even if there are 10. Too much in-house competition from "ZDT" and "Amour" (Columbia's push for "ZDT," especially, may severely limit the number of tech nods available for stablemate "Skyfal")...
I'm sure "Les Miserables" will make the best picture lineup but believe it may do so without nods for direction, writing OR editing. Still, I think it could take 2-3 awards in the final balloting despite weaknesses which would cripple its chances at a BP win...
"Amour" and "Beasts" will be lucky to be nominated for one or two awards. Ditto for "The Master," though I prefer it's chances to the other two simply because P.T. Anderson (as well as much of the cast and crew) has some history with the Academy. AMPAS is not the National Society of Film Critics and Haneke and Zeitlin are not Terence Malick. A foreign language film will have no problem making it into the BP lineup when there is one which is accessible to American sensibilities...
I'm predicting 8 nominees (in this order): "Lincoln", "Argo", "Zero Dark Thirty", "Les Miserables", "Django Unchained", "Silver Linings Playbook", "Life of Pi", "Moonrise Kingdom". I have "Beasts" and "Best Exotic Marigold" in the next two slots if there are more than 8...
No one is talking about "The Impossible."
It has a building buzz. And it is one of the last films viewed by the Academy members.
These are my predictions:
Locks:
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Unsure locks: (60/40 chance)
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Wild-cards:
The Master
The Impossible
Skyfall (Just because of the PGA nomination)
My current rankings:
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Les Miserables
5. Argo
6. Django Unchained
7. Life of Pi
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Master
10. The Impossible
Pam Grier was viciously snubbed by Oscar. She most certainly deserved a nom. SAG gave her one.
Damn, Denby's tirade was vicious. I thought he made a few strong arguments. I haven't seen Les Mis, but I'm looking forward to it. I think his case lost some steam toward the end. That bit about sentimentality being corrosive to art--made no sense. And complaining about too much misery in the movie is kinda silly. What is THE title, Dave?