Making Peace With "Argo". How Many Oscars Will It Win?
Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 12:06PM 
When Best Picture locks up each year -- which usually happens sooner than February 2nd so we should count our blessings that this year had more drama! -- the best thing that one can do is find a way to make peace with it. I've followed the Oscars long enough to know that when your absolute favorite in a category wins you should feel rapturous but treat it like its as rare as Brigadoon since you might never see it's like again. The trick to staying sane (not that I've actually mastered this, mind you) is to enjoy the annual awards festivities without caring about the winners so much as the journey to crown them. In its better moments the awards season circus provides plenty of entertainment, delectable star-gazing, and even the occasional conversational or critical insight into what makes particularly movies great or what makes people love particular movies despite their unfortunate lack of greatness.
I've learned to enjoy it when anything in my top ten each year wins something since, in most years, actual favorites are not crowned. It's harder though to enoy your non-favorites winning when they're solidly in the middle of the pack or when a particular forthcoming win defeats something clearly masterful.
...Ben Affleck won the Directors Guild Awards last night for helming that retro true story thriller. The DGA prize generally coincides with Oscar's eventual choice but of course, Affleck was not nominated in that category, only for producing Argo (he wins his second Oscar if its wins Best Picture). I've said since its premiere months ago that it was definitely a possibility to win the industry's most coveted prize. It's been at or near the top of the pack the whole time. Oscar discourse on the internet can be very silly with its bipolar moods and binary thinking ("LOCKED!" "IT'S OVER!") but even through that brief period when many pundits (though not all) had said 'stick a fork in it, it's done' when the buzz for at least three other films rose above it only to fall again, I never waivered that it was still in the "fighting for the win" conversation for reasons discussed previously. Even when Affleck was the surprise odd man out on Oscar nomination morning in the Director's Branch I didn't think it was over for the film. I LIVED THROUGH DRIVING MISS DAISY, PEOPLE. (I should get that on a t-shirt.)
[Editor's Note: For the youngest Oscar fanatics who've somehow missed this oft told statistic, Driving Miss Daisy (1989) is the most recent Best Picture winner that was not nominated for Best Director. People are always fond of saying "this can't happen because ____ " but it's never true. Rules generally have exceptions and if they don't, they eventually will find one. People sometimes like to say in retrospect that Brokeback Mountain was doomed the second it was snubbed in Editing but you can win without that key category, too, though the last film to do that was Ordinary People (1980)]
Now, Argo would not make an embarrassing Best Picture winner so the comparison with Driving Miss Daisy should end there (though in truth Driving Miss Daisy's win isn't quite as bad as it seems in retrospect once you put it in the context of 89's dumb missed-the-boat-entirely roster) but since i'd rank Argo as solidly middle of the pack in its roster...
- Bonafide Greats: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Masterful Moments: Les Misérables, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty
... all five on my top ten list - Hit & Miss / Solid Entertainments: Argo, Django Unchained
- Intriguing Elements But Not For Me: Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook
... I'm having trouble staving off the woulda coulda shoulda blues about the dwindling prospects of the other films. And I have trouble doing that each year because I'm more of a 'spread the wealth' type of soul but spreading the wealth is anathema to awards voters as we see each year; they love their bandwagons.
The problem is less, as I see it, that Argo will almost certainly win Best Picture on February 24th. The only thing that could stop it post SAG, DGA, and PGA prizes is a collective "have we taken this 'Poor Ben Affleck' meme too far as an industry... why are we feeling sorry for Ben F'ing Affleck?!?" once voting begins. It seems strange to realize it but voting still hasn't begun! No, the problem is, as I see it, which other prizes will Argo win because Best Pictures always win other Oscars, too. In almost every category in which its featured I think it would be a real shame if it won the trophy -- not because it's not a good movie (it is) but because its not the best or even the second best in any of those categories... so it'll be tought to make peace with.
My favorite imaginary outcome on Oscar night would be to see ARGO only take home the Best Picture trophy. That hasn't happened since the 1930s when there were far fewer categories. Statistics are even against it winning only two trophies. The last Best Picture winner to do that was 60 years ago (The Greatest Show on Earth) In fact, only one Best Picture winner in the modern era (i.e. 80s and onwards) has taken home less than 4 statues and that was Crash (2005) which won three. So which of its nominations can Argo win?
EDITING. I know a lot of people think Argo is masterfully tense but I found some of its final act to be verging on cheap trick pumping up the suspense --will they answer the phone? Will they make it off the runway? -- like a train heading towards a damsel in distress tied to the tracks and no matter how fast the train is barrelling forward, each time we see it, it hasn't yet run her over. I think Zero Dark Thirty has a far more impressive rhythmic propulsiveness in its climax... but Oscar isn't as over the moon for that film as they might've been. Likelihood of Winning: Very Likely.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: This less than electric field guarantees a second win for someone, but who? Given that Alan Arkin has the least challening role among the nominees and that they owe him nothing (this'd be a slam dunk if he hadn't won for Little Miss Sunshine) it would require an absolute rallying 'give Argo everything!' movement just as some might be starting to question whether Argo should be winning each prize its up for. Still in a field this casually 'oh yeah, them' anything might happen. Likelihood of Winning: Unlikely unless things go poorly for Lincoln on Oscar night.
SOUND MIXING & SOUND EDITING: If Oscar wants to award Skyfall or Zero Dark Thirty somewhere, this is where they'll do it. Likelihood of Winning: It's a tossup but the other nominees are showier than Argo so I'm guessing these prizes slip away. At the very least it'll lose one of them.
ORIGINAL SCORE: Here's an interesting contest. Life of Pi has some forward momentum for Mychael Danna (enjoying his first two nominations) but Argo's Alexandre Desplat still hasn't won after four nominations and a million great scores. Likelihood of Winning: This score will never be in Desplat's greatest hits but I think he might win the Oscar for it anyway. 50/50.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: here's the category I will be biting my nails through. "Argo Fuck Yourself" which is repeated endlessly in the movie is a catchphrase verging on "show me the money" proportions now and as silly as it sounds it could tip this category in Argo's favor. Likelihood of Winning: If Argo Mania doesn't subside soon, Chris Terrio may well edge out the genius Tony Kushner for Lincoln. It's not that Terrio's screenplay isn't strong. It's just that we're talking Tony Kushner and his work on Lincoln. It'll be the arguably biggest travesty of the Argo vs. Lincoln wars but I actually think (at this writing) that it's going to happen.
My Guess: Three Oscars for Argo (Picture, Editing, and either Score or Adapted Screenplay) but I'm guessing Life of Pi and Lincoln fight for "most Oscar wins" of the evening despite losing Best Picture.
Have you made peace with Argo's ascendance or are you cheering it on? How many Oscars do you think it'll win?
Reader Comments (58)
I can't imagine Lincoln not taking adapted screenplay. Kushner has such chops, a track record (Angels and Munich) and solved a multi year problem of getting a script that would work. Lincoln will also take actor. I'ld love to see Sally F win here but I fear it won't happen. Waltz will take supporting (Django will also get original screenplay). Argo will take film and score and possibly editing. Lawrence has a good shot at actress, but its not the role of a lifetime, no matter how good she is in it and at her age, she has a Lincoln, The Queen or Sophie ahead of her. I think Riva will get it. A chance to honor a truly exquisite piece of work by a deserving actress who will probably not get another shot and next year looks to be Watts. I don't see Les Miz taking anything other than sup actress, pi will take some techs, skyfall song and possibly cinematography and Anna K will take costumes and perhaps production design. Director, Haneke, perhaps Spielberg but I think Haneke. Beasts and zero will be shut out. Beasts because it doesn't have the budget to campaign (plus its non union in a union contest) and zero because they waited too long to get up and running. Plus, the comparisons to Hurt Locker and "ick" factor.
Arkaan, in case you're still reading this, I don't like to play the "should" game. I don't believe in who "should" win because it's all a matter of taste anyway. The Oscars are nothing if not subjective. I just think Argo is recieving an unfair beating on this site and I wanted to come to its defense. It's my fourth favorite film of the year. I'm just saying, it would be a worthy winner for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, but it wouldn't be the only worthy winner. With so many great films this year, why must we say that only one should win? I know a lot of people don't think Argo is a worthy winner, but I think it's a film that does what it sets out to do and it obviously struck a chord with people, so those people are giving it awards. I have my preferences, you have yours, they have theirs.....
Argo is the feel-good CIA film of the year. Honestly if I were the CIA, I would promote the hell out of this movie for my agency than Zero Dark Thirty. It shows them as heroes, populist, well-intentioned employees who are portrayed as so normal and pretty much whitewashes a very troubling period for the CIA by finding a major silver lining and amplifying it as one of the greatest rescue missions ever. The less you know about the CIA in that era, the better you like the film because I find it really hard to reconcile thinking this movie is anything but empty entertainment than something that is supposedly smart and brave to its biggest defenders. It has gusto, the contrast between that story-board prologue and that jingoistic ending, and that is as much as I can praise it.
Argo is disposable entertainment that will fill the TNT weekend movie block for years. Even as a period piece, I find it far inferior to Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Zodiac in terms of a procedure wrapped in process, secrecy, suspense, and moral quandary. It really is too coy and proud of itself to ask harder questions about its subject matter. That and I really did not find the cast beyond Goodman and Arkin to be all that interesting, including Tony Mendez. If the film was done more from the perspective of the escaped embassy employees (think of Jack Lemmon and Sissy Spacek's characters in Costa-Gavras' Missing) I could probably see myself really being grabbed hold more of the story. For a film that supposedly takes off from the cinema of Alan J. Pakula and a lot of other 70s political thrillers it has an ending that absolutely is 180 degree opposite of the tones and questions about our government those movies posed (even the triumphant case of All the President's Men still has Woodward and Bernstein working as Nixon gets elected in the end).
eurocheese- You're wrong. Zero Dark Thirty was a critical darling and held with more critical praise than Argo for a lot of people (RT and Metacritic both showed it as one of the top critically acclaimed films of 2012). Sasha Stone at Awards Daily has a good rundown that the movie itself did not really leave people cold but the controversy did in a timeline that shows people moved back to Argo when weeks before ZD30 dominated the critics awards as the controversy really heated up against the film. The real story is that Sony completely dropped the ball defending the film leaving Ellison, Bigelow, Boal, and Chastain to do the heavy lifting all amid potential congressional investigation because of what some senators married to the defense industry 'heard' about the film. Had Harvey Weinstein had his hands on it, I would expect something like Leon Panetta's recent praise of the film and admittance that the film showing that EIT was used to be correct to be sung from the top of buildings all over Hollywood and it having far more nominations than it got (and that it deserved).
Arkaan- I agree about the mock table reading vs. the scenes of the hostage juxtaposition. It reminded me of the infamous sex scene in Munich (for Kushner's sake, I hope that was all Eric Roth's work in the script). I have criticized the film for taking its eye off the ball from the hostage crisis and it was such an awkward re-introduction. Same with Chris Messina saying they had to keep quiet to protect the hostages in such a laid-back manner. There was also the first meeting after the attack on the embassy that rang false. I know there is the issue of introducing people to the world of the CIA but having some stock character openly ask, 'Are the children of Iran starving?' with no sense of irony or tact was such a turn-off. I could be fine if it was portraying the CIA as incompetent people, which they were in that time, but they were portrayed as people throwing stuff at the wall to see whatever stuck. To play with the Hollywood film comparisons, it was like watching a writer's room.
It should also be noted that William Goldenberg is nominated for editing in both Argo and ZD30. He co-edits in ZD30 so I assume his name will come up first so there is going to have to be patience in hearing the whole envelope read out. I expect him to win something but it would be nice if it was for the much less explicitly done to tug at your emotions (that instead broke my illusion in watching the film) work.
I know that we Zero Dark Thirty partisans are some of the hardest on Argo but when you consider both films had the same editors, the same composer, and even the same actors (Kyle Chandler was great in ZD30, and I have no recollection of who he was supposed to be in Argo besides a CIA stock character) that the comparisons beyond a CIA movie will come up. For the raid scene alone, I think Zero Dark Thirty's editing (who cares about the outcome being known, the sobering tones of the images that mixed with the tension, build-up, and release was quite honestly one of the most shocking movie experiences I had in 2012) should win but the fact Greig Fraser's equally stirring cinematography that complimented the editing so well for that sequence getting ignored worries me. But I can also see how Sound Editing and Editing for Zero Dark Thirty is a nice pat on the head to the film while ignoring it for Picture, Actress, and Screenplay because those categories are not as threatening to the AMPAS members who spurred the film.
I think Terrio wins for adapting screenplay. If Desplat wins score, I think Argo takes Best Picture but I still see it taking Screenplay (and if it wins for any technical work, then it is indeed a sure thing since if not ZD30, it should be Skyfall or Life of Pi dominating that side) Arkin has only won for the ensemble work thus far. I really do not see him beating Jones and dare I say, Hoffman has a really good chance too.
Since I was around at the time of Driving Miss Daisy (shudder), I remember that it was the middle winning picture of three bad years in a row until the Academy toughened up with Silence of the Lambs.
But anyway, I remember reading that at the time of the awards, My Left Foot was surging among the voters and if the balloting had taken place three weeks later, it would have won. It kinda makes sense to me since which movie wins is at least as much about timing and fatigue as anything else.
I remember when Marion Cotillard was in the running and people thought Julie Christie would win, I really felt that if enough people just saw La Vie En Rose then Marion would win, and I think that's what finally happened.
CMG - I'm lost. You said I'm wrong, but it sounds like you are agreeing with my point: ZDT was critically acclaimed but didn't have the strong expected reaction from the Academy. What am I missing? Perhaps you mean me saying it was a cold film - I'd be surprised to hear arguments against that notion, but I certainly didn't mean it as a criticism. I'm a big ZDT fan.
It's so depressing that in an exceptional year such as this in film, they would give the Best Picture to a nice little cable movie. Argo is the safe choice--solid but no rough edges. There were so many brilliant films that challenged us, made us think, made us feel. My choice for Best Picture would be Zero Dark Thirty, Kathryn Bigelow's thrilling masterwork. This is a movie that doesn't hold our hand, spoon-feed us, or soothe our conscience. So of course it's much easier for the Academy to reward a competent little entertainment with an ending right out of Walt Disney. The only cliche missing from Argo's wrap-up is the puppy on the runway.
Amour : Best Picture. No one here has posited that possibility. And I most definitely think it's possible. They don't want to give the Oscar to Argo, or to Lincoln, or to Zero Dark Thirty, or to The Life of Pi. If it's not Amour, it's Silver Linings Playbook.
eurocheese- Sorry for the misunderstanding eurocheese. Yes, a celebrated procedural critical darling versus a cold, far too sobering film to academy members is what I was saying. Being a ZDT partisan for the last months and weeks have been hard. Between reading absolutely absurd pieces from people who should know better as they know little about films. Then there was the odd acceptance by people in the industry of letting a whispering campaign against the film work along the latent sexism of the director's branch at the academy punishing Bigelow for aiming high after they let her little independent film win Best Picture the last time (I was generally in denial that this could still happen but enough people like Anne Thompson, Kris Tapley, and Tom O'Neil said it was exactly that for Bigelow).
So I am still in the seven stages of grief that ZDT will not win Best Picture (even if the possibility from the very beginning was low it was not given a level playing field against the other nominees thanks to a lazy media and I also thought Bigelow would have gotten a nomination) and possibly going empty-handed all while Goldenberg and Desplat are likely winners for a film that will win Best Picture even if I thought they did better work on ZDT.