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Wednesday
Dec092015

SAG Award Nominations

Early this morning while waiting for the Screen Actors Guild Nominations to come i wondered out loud "what will be the insane 'Naomi Watts in St Vincent' nomination today?". No one could have expected that the answer would be "all of them".

Ladies and gentlemen the weirdest bunch of nominations ever for the SAG AWARDS which will be broadcast on Saturday January 30th on TBS/TNT. Many people will be rethinking their Oscar predictions this morning but it's important to remember that there is extremely little overlap between nominating committee members of SAG (chosen at random each year from their huge membership) and Oscar's acting branch (a few thousand elite people). 

In fact, Melodipopvision is correct when she suggests "Isn't SAG basically now an annual list of "prestige actors I've liked in some other stuff"?"

Normally we love surprises during awards season but when they're as unfortunate as so many of these surprises this morning, the terror begins to set in. What kind of Oscars are we going to get this year?

Nominations with commentary & statistics after the jump...


Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture 
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

Or, as John Guerin said on Twitter "basically the male species". A pity when the female centric movies like Carol and Brooklyn and even Joy had such strong casts. 

MORE ON THIS CATEGORY IN ITS OWN POST.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role 

  • Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  • Johnny Depp, Black Mass
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant\
  • Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl 

Bryan Cranston, the mild surprise here, is a favorite of the guild who already has 4 SAG Awards. But given that Matt Damon (The Martian), Sir Ian McKellen (Mr Holmes), and Michael B Jordan (Creed) are strong contenders and that Michael Caine (a longtime Oscar favorite) were left out this lineup, I don't think it's entirely likely that we'll see the same lineup come Oscar nomination morning. Best Actor Oscar Chart will be updated tomorrow night

Though this category tends to have a strong correlation to the eventual lineup occassionally they think quite differently as in 2013 when they nominated Tom Hanks and Forrest Whitaker. Oscar jettisoned both.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role 

  • Cate Blanchett, Carol
  • Brie Larson, Room
  • Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
  • Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  • Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Of all the categories for SAG to vote on drunk this was not the one this year. I haven't made it a secret that I think Woman in Gold is a terrible movie but worse than that Helen Mirren is wildly overshadowed in her own film by Tatiana Maslany. Mirren phones it in. Maslany totally works hard to sell the same character in her youth. But Mirren is a SAG favorite with 5 wins already. Best Actress Oscar chart will be updated tomorrow night. Feeling bad for Blythe Danner, Carey Mulligan, and Lily Tomlin who could've used this boost and who seemed at least somewhat likely for SAG.

Don't ask me to explain Sarah Silverman. Who could? Even people who like her performance don't seem to love the film at all and that's usually a hurdle.

"hold up with those Oscar prediction changes, y'all"

Oscar thought: This category is nearly always a 4/5 or 5/5 match with Oscar. Though that's difficult to imagine with these five, Mirren could be the variable that makes a 3/5 year happen. The last time Oscar thought much differently, SAG also went for Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Michael Shannon has had a very good week or two
  • Christian Bale, The Big Short
  • Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
  • Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  • Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
  • Jacob Tremblay, Room

Here we have a weird mix of the voters paying attention -- you'd have to be paying attention to nominate the underseen Michael Shannon in 99 Homes, and also playing hero worship -- Christian Bale isn't even remotely the best performance in The Big Short! But perhaps Bale is a threat to Oscar we hadn't really considered. He does play someone with a glass eye (!) and they did nominate him for American Hustle after all in a surprise against stronger competition. Oscar chart updates coming but... I don't think SAG nominations mean as much this year given the odd results.

Oscar note: This category recently has had a 4/5 and 5/5 correlation to Oscar but back in the 90s they sometimes went 2/5. This could be a non-matchey match year since it'd be silly to count out the Spotlight men or Sylvester Stallone.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role 

"This sucks. Why am I competing against leading ladies!?"

  • Rooney Mara, Carol
  • Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
  • Helen Mirren, Trumbo
  • Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

SAG rules are such that voters MUST abide by studio mandated category placement. Which is why Vikander and Mara are supporting despite leading their films. SAG really really really loves Helen Mirren, don't they? She already has 5 SAG statuettes. Meanwhile Rachel McAdams joins the looooong lazy tradition of easy road to noms/wins(?) by being the only woman in a man's film. Supporting Actress chart updates coming.

Oscar Thought: Of the Acting categories this is the one that has the least correlation to Oscar statistically. It's been as low as 1/5 (2001) and 2/5 in some years (94/96). That said they've been becoming more Oscar-like over the years and have matched perfectly a few times.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series 

  • Downton Abbey
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland
  • House of Cards
  • Mad Men 

Just like the Emmys

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series 

  • The Big Bang Theory
  • Key & Peele
  • Modern Family
  • Orange is the New Black
  • Transparent
  • Veep

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series 

  • Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
  • Jon Hamm, Mad Men
  • Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
  • Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
  • Kevin Spacey, House of Cards 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

  • Claire Danes, Homeland
  • Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
  • Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
  • Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
  • Robin Wright, House of Cards

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series 

  • Ty Burrell, Modern Family
  • Louis CK., Louie
  • William H. Macy, Shameless
  • Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
  • Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
  • Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
  • Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
  • Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

  • Idris Elba, Luther 
  • Ben Kingsley, Tut
  • Ray Liotta, Texas Rising
  • Bill Murray, A Very Murray Christmas
  • Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

  • Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
  • Queen Latifah, Bessie
  • Christina Ricci, The Lizzie Borden Chronicles
  • Susan Sarandon, The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe 
  • Kristen Wiig, The Spoils Before Dying

So 1990s !

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

(TV)

  • The Blacklist
  • Game of Thrones
  • Homeland
  • Marvel’s Daredevil
  • The Walking Dead

If Daredevil doesn't win this...

(MOVIES)

  • Everest
  • Furious 7
  • Jurassic World
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

If Mad Max doesn't win this...

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Reader Comments (113)

Sarah Silverman in Best Actress is the strangest awards moment I've had since City of God at the Oscars a few years ago.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJohn T

They sure love Helen Mirren! Double nominee!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRami

lol at these nominees. points for being unexpected I guess.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered Commentermarcelo

Where did that Sarah Silverman nomination come from, I do love an out of left field nod like that.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRami

Oh my God. I was going to complain about them snubbing Oscar Isaac for Show Me a Hero... and then the rest happened.

Do I need to see Trumbo now?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

these nominations are a complete mess!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterCris

Wow, Supporting Actor is just bananas. No Stallone, Keaton or Ruffalo? That category is going to be insanely open.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterWarren

Did they see 45 Years? How in the hell did Rampling miss out with actors ?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRami

No Rampling in Best Actress. Did they see the movie, how in the world can she miss out with actors?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRami

I've *seen* I SMILE BACK and that nomination is a shocker. Silverman is good, but... wow.

Between that, the two Mirren nomination, McAdams the only SPOTLIGHT nominee, the BEASTS OF NO NATION ensemble nod alongside STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON, Michael Shannon for 99 HOMES, no Matt Damon... seriously, it's like they just spun a wheel of crazy and nominated whatever it landed on. I predicted COMPTON and McAdams, but that doesn't make the whole list just look awfully baffling. Jeepers.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Double post about Rampling. I was that mad about it LOL

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRami

I guess Jane Fonda can say goodbye to her 8min Oscar hopes....

what the fuck is their illogicl fascination with Helen mirren?

And I feel so sorry for Carey Mulligan and the cast of Suffragette....

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

The nominations are a reflection of the season. For those who dislike early locks which dominated awards bodies and the critics honors rest easy because we may have some Marisa Tomei level bullshit happening throughout the season.

Congrats on Straight Outta Compton's much deserved Ensemble nod. And the Best Actress list means it is Brie Larson's to lose.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

This is bonkers. Such a rich year for Best Actress and they come up with Silverman and Mirren???The Woman in Gold's very TVmovie-esque and she does nothing remarkable... she was even better in Hitchcock and that was already a very generous bunch of noms. If anything, Tatiana Maslany playing the younger version of the character was much better!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterCarlos

Ew! EEW! EEEEW!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

@/3rtful yeah cool to see Straight Outta Compton 's ensemble nomination.And Beast of No Nation too. And usual they embraced category fraurd. Happy for Jason Tremblay , Rachel Mcadams and Michael Shannon too.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

I am happy for Elba and Beasts Ensemble. That film deserves it.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRami

Geeze, for the first time in a while they don't just rubber stamp the Oscar favorites and everyone poo-poo's them.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRobert A

What a ridiculous list of nominees on both sides. Great for them going with what they want and offering surprises, but it does make you question if they bothered to watch the movies/shows.

Also, as Nathaniel has mentioned, a lot of category fraud (drama shows nominated for comedy, lead roles nominated for supporting), even if they have no say. They should just not nominate those people then!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph

Ack, what a disaster. Spotlight and Helen Mirren got the same number of nominations! People are pretending Straight Outta Compton was good! All biopic male lead category! Make it stop!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterAR

These are the weirdest SAG nominations I've ever seen. 4/5 of the ensemble nominees are shockers.

Why is Hollywood trying to reverse-engineer Helen Mirren's career? When she won in 2006 the narrative said she was "long overdue" even though she didn't have a long list of truly great performances (on film) on her resume. Now it's like the world is trying to INSIST that she has a deep and varied filmography even though she makes snoozy social studies dramas for a living. Girl, bye.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterHayden W.

Without Brooklyn or Room in ensemble, we don't have an indication of whether Ronan or Larson is stronger. I initially thought Larson but lately Ronan was pulling ahead and I think Brooklyn will get more Oscar nominations overall. But SAG went with Tremblay too so perhaps Larson keeps her frontrunner status.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph W

Also, I told you all that Nicole Kidman would be SAG nominated for Grace of Monaco! I said it in 2013, but whatever—I was still correct.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterHayden W.

Bluemoon, I don't think today's nominations mean much of anything in the long run. Many of these choices seem completely at odds with everything we know of the race as of right now... I'd be surprised if Helen Mirren made much of a dent, for instance. But then you never know, I guess.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

SAGs obsession with Helen Mirren really needs to stop. No doubt, when she's on top of her game, she can be really good, but she doesn't need a nomination every time she farts on screen.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBen

How did that Lead Actress list even happen? Kudos to Silverman since they must have genuinely loved her in it, but Mirren feels so lazy especially since she's in Supporting. All this Trumbo love though. Is it even out? Is it good? This list feels really old for some reason. Like this it what the frontrunners were but a few months ago.

On the bright side, Idris Elba is here! And the three person ensemble nod looks so weird for Beasts but that feels like a good unexpected since it actually is a good ensemble not made of star power so I don't mind. And Straight Outta Compton! This was weird as hell but besides some gonzo nominees and the category fraud this could be worse.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterNick T

Wow, that Supporting Actor category. Does anyone see any of those nominees repeating at Oscar aside from Mark Rylance? Because the other four all struck me as real long shots an hour ago.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterEdwin

HAYDEN- LOL @ Grace of Monaco sneaking in there... I wonder if Nicole will show up?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterDAVID

Honestly, SAG needed 'Joy.' Only a Miracle Mop could clean up this mess!!!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterAndy

Did they really just leave out TARAJI P HENSON for EMPIRE?? **GASP**

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterDAVID

Now I'm sure JOY, H8FUL 8, and maybe also THE REVENANT will do good on Oscar nomination morning. Give Oscars too many options and they'll just bite the late December releases.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBVR

I actually think I sorta predicted the Silverman nomination a month ago when I watched it and compared it to CAKE.

https://twitter.com/glenndunks/status/665169389558239233

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Rant Nathaniel, rant!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterPeggy Sue

Good god, supporting actress! You could have had Joan Allen, Liz Banks, Jane Fonda, JJL and/or KStew. Instead we get two lead actresses, Spotlight's weakest link and the first of two Mirrens.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterMike in Canada

lol WHAT THE FUCK?!
God, I love this year's awards.
Where the hell is Charlotte Rampling though? That fucking Oscar is hers to lose.
However, I am all for Sarah Silverman being this year's Jennifer Aniston.

VEEP must win the Comedy Ensemble!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterCraver

Gotta say, this is the most bizarre nomination from SAG that I can remember. Usually they were predictable, with all the Oscars usual suspects, those in major conversation in the last few weeks. But Trumbo leading the nomination? Woman in Gold for Best Actress? All the guys in Spotlight and they nominated Rachel McAdams (okay, I actually love her so not a complaint)? Christian Bale? Sarah Silverman? Where did all these come from?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterPJ

"but it's important to remember that there is extremely little overlap between nominating committee members of SAG (chosen at random each year from their huge membership) and Oscar's acting branch (a few thousand elite people)."

Its also important to remember that SAG nowadays have at least 4 out of 5 in almost every film acting-category..
But maybe this will be a 1995, 96, 2001-year again...

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterTobias from Sweden

These nominations are so stupid. SAG should be embarrassed. But, like the Golden Globes and Oscar, SAG will nominate any ole thing, but eventually come through with the most typical and boring winner (see Julia Louis-Dreyfus winning every ... single ... year). Maybe Leonardo finally get his Oscar?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterCharlieG

no Joy for JLaw :P will this translate to a No Oscar Nom?

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterYavor

Rami- Right? but apparently they did have time for a Very Murray Christmas - WTF!
Andy-So funny!

And the TV noms are boring. No Taraji or Kerry but Maggie Smith AGAIN? And honestly, Uzo is not the best thing on OITNB.

Where's some love for Hayley Atwell or Ming-na Wen?
But yay for Queen Latifah. If she doesn't win for Bessie...aaargh.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterPam

It is always more exciting when we have an unpredictable season, but there are so many distinctively horrible choices that one has to wonder if the SAG Awards are where good taste goes to die!

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterCarmen Sandiego

And of the 5 nominated ensembles, of the 38 actors between them, only 6 are women. For what was being touted as a strong year for women, this is even more embarrassing than usual.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBen

Nathaniel, do you really think Rachel McAdams could win the Oscar? The ONLY way I can see that happening is if the Academy really does decide that both Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander are leads, and even then, I still don't think McAdams would be the obvious frontrunner barring a scenario in which Spotlight starts dominating everything.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterEdwin

The Martian is dead in the water.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterGustavo

Listen lockstep group think seasons are the best for keeping everything in line and inevitable for Oscar. But of course everyone is sick of this. Get over the awfulness of most of these nominations. At least Brie Larson is closer to a sure thing at the Oscars. The Academy will not deny Lawrence for Mara to get the upgrade. I rather she stay in supporting because the potential for unsung performers like Rampling need all the real estate they can get based on mortal locks Ronan, Larsow, and Blanchett.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

One Jon Hamm nomination left to root for

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered Commentercal roth

The oscar line up will not look like this but I do think it indicates a few things. Replace Helen Mirren in her two categories with Charlotte Rampling and Jennifer Jason Leigh - and that's the women's races tied up. I think Spotlight is now the one to beat for Best Picture, and that the lists for Actor and Supporting Actor are going to be completely different,

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterAbel

guys what is happening this year, it's mayhem.

Please stop trying to make Trumbo happen. I am assaulted by capital A Acting by even looking at a still of Bryan Cranston in that movie. Even the wrinkles on his forehead are overacting.

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterRyan

I should have stopped reading after Best Ensemble....

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterSanty C.

@GlennDunks Perhaps that is so. I mean, the year is so full of rich female performances and they went with Mirren and Silverman, competent they might be but they were nowhere near as golden as some of the rest. Let's hope the GGs and Oscars will make full use of the abundance of female performancess and nominate poeple like Tomlin or Rampling or hopefully Mulligan!

@Ben. Yes agreed. I am still rather unhappy when SAG picked Mirren over Moss (how fking brilliant she was in TOTL???).

December 9, 2015 | Unregistered CommenterBlueMoon02

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