SAG Award Nominations

Early this morning while waiting for the Screen Actors Guild Nominations to come i wondered out loud "what will be the insane 'Naomi Watts in St Vincent' nomination today?". No one could have expected that the answer would be "all of them".

Ladies and gentlemen the weirdest bunch of nominations ever for the SAG AWARDS which will be broadcast on Saturday January 30th on TBS/TNT. Many people will be rethinking their Oscar predictions this morning but it's important to remember that there is extremely little overlap between nominating committee members of SAG (chosen at random each year from their huge membership) and Oscar's acting branch (a few thousand elite people). 

In fact, Melodipopvision is correct when she suggests "Isn't SAG basically now an annual list of "prestige actors I've liked in some other stuff"?"

Normally we love surprises during awards season but when they're as unfortunate as so many of these surprises this morning, the terror begins to set in. What kind of Oscars are we going to get this year?

Nominations with commentary & statistics after the jump...

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture 
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

Or, as John Guerin said on Twitter "basically the male species". A pity when the female centric movies like Carol and Brooklyn and even Joy had such strong casts. 

MORE ON THIS CATEGORY IN ITS OWN POST.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role 

• Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
• Johnny Depp, Black Mass
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant\
• Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl 

Bryan Cranston, the mild surprise here, is a favorite of the guild who already has 4 SAG Awards. But given that Matt Damon (The Martian), Sir Ian McKellen (Mr Holmes), and Michael B Jordan (Creed) are strong contenders and that Michael Caine (a longtime Oscar favorite) were left out this lineup, I don't think it's entirely likely that we'll see the same lineup come Oscar nomination morning. Best Actor Oscar Chart will be updated tomorrow night

Though this category tends to have a strong correlation to the eventual lineup occassionally they think quite differently as in 2013 when they nominated Tom Hanks and Forrest Whitaker. Oscar jettisoned both.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role 

• Cate Blanchett, Carol
• Brie Larson, Room
• Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
• Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
• Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

Of all the categories for SAG to vote on drunk this was not the one this year. I haven't made it a secret that I think Woman in Gold is a terrible movie but worse than that Helen Mirren is wildly overshadowed in her own film by Tatiana Maslany. Mirren phones it in. Maslany totally works hard to sell the same character in her youth. But Mirren is a SAG favorite with 5 wins already. Best Actress Oscar chart will be updated tomorrow night. Feeling bad for Blythe Danner, Carey Mulligan, and Lily Tomlin who could've used this boost and who seemed at least somewhat likely for SAG.

Don't ask me to explain Sarah Silverman. Who could? Even people who like her performance don't seem to love the film at all and that's usually a hurdle.

"hold up with those Oscar prediction changes, y'all"

Oscar thought: This category is nearly always a 4/5 or 5/5 match with Oscar. Though that's difficult to imagine with these five, Mirren could be the variable that makes a 3/5 year happen. The last time Oscar thought much differently, SAG also went for Mirren (Hitchcock, 2012) 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Michael Shannon has had a very good week or two

• Christian Bale, The Big Short
• Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
• Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
• Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
• Jacob Tremblay, Room

Here we have a weird mix of the voters paying attention -- you'd have to be paying attention to nominate the underseen Michael Shannon in 99 Homes, and also playing hero worship -- Christian Bale isn't even remotely the best performance in The Big Short! But perhaps Bale is a threat to Oscar we hadn't really considered. He does play someone with a glass eye (!) and they did nominate him for American Hustle after all in a surprise against stronger competition. Oscar chart updates coming but... I don't think SAG nominations mean as much this year given the odd results.

Oscar note: This category recently has had a 4/5 and 5/5 correlation to Oscar but back in the 90s they sometimes went 2/5. This could be a non-matchey match year since it'd be silly to count out the Spotlight men or Sylvester Stallone.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role 

"This sucks. Why am I competing against leading ladies!?"

• Rooney Mara, Carol
• Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
• Helen Mirren, Trumbo
• Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
• Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

SAG rules are such that voters MUST abide by studio mandated category placement. Which is why Vikander and Mara are supporting despite leading their films. SAG really really really loves Helen Mirren, don't they? She already has 5 SAG statuettes. Meanwhile Rachel McAdams joins the looooong lazy tradition of easy road to noms/wins(?) by being the only woman in a man's film. Supporting Actress chart updates coming.

Oscar Thought: Of the Acting categories this is the one that has the least correlation to Oscar statistically. It's been as low as 1/5 (2001) and 2/5 in some years (94/96). That said they've been becoming more Oscar-like over the years and have matched perfectly a few times.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series 

• Downton Abbey
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland
• House of Cards
• Mad Men 

Just like the Emmys

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series 

• The Big Bang Theory
• Key & Peele
• Modern Family
• Orange is the New Black
• Transparent
• Veep

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series 

• Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
• Jon Hamm, Mad Men
• Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
• Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
• Kevin Spacey, House of Cards 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

• Claire Danes, Homeland
• Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
• Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
• Robin Wright, House of Cards

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series 

• Ty Burrell, Modern Family
• Louis CK., Louie
• William H. Macy, Shameless
• Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
• Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

• Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
• Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
• Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
• Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

• Idris Elba, Luther 
• Ben Kingsley, Tut
• Ray Liotta, Texas Rising
• Bill Murray, A Very Murray Christmas
• Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

• Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
• Queen Latifah, Bessie
• Christina Ricci, The Lizzie Borden Chronicles
• Susan Sarandon, The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe 
• Kristen Wiig, The Spoils Before Dying

So 1990s !

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

(TV)

• The Blacklist
• Game of Thrones
• Homeland
• Marvel’s Daredevil
• The Walking Dead

If Daredevil doesn't win this...

(MOVIES)

• Everest
• Furious 7
• Jurassic World
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

If Mad Max doesn't win this...

Comments

[JC]

I wonder who's gonna be next year former actress in a comedy serie nominated for leading actress in a motion picture.

[Campbell]

MESS! And Helen Mirren TWICE?!?! That's just lazy.

[flatbeat]

Extremely happy about Silverman. Comparing her landing a nomination to Aniston & Cake is completely undeserved. The film might be mediocre but she sells and then elevates everything she works with (not much considering the pedestrian writing) Her eyes haunt me to this day, not kidding. I seriously thought no one would pay attention. Switch Mirren with Rampling and you have a lineup that's at least (and at last) interesting

[gary]

don't drink and vote people. was sally kirkland on the nominating committee?

[Bia]

I'm actually fine with Sarah Silverman getting her nomination. I've heard nothing but good things about the performance and she feels like someone whom Hollywood should be investing in.

[goran]

Just watched I Smile Back. Silverman is excellent in it. Maybe not as good as Ronan or Rampling but close enough. It's hardly an embarrassing nomination. As worthy as Larson's, I'd argue. And that's by no means a knock against Larson.

[Matt]

Two nominations for Louis CK!

[Paul Outlaw]

Although Helen Mirren was actually nominated three times today, the chances of her walking away from the ceremony with even one statuette are very slim.

[Anne]

No Maslany breaks my heart.

[Joe (uk)]

Helen Mirren - I love it! Thank god SAG have given out a list that isn't predictable. Globes will not be as exciting, and Oscar will probably be the usual suspects.

[Jones]

The SAG awards have been my least favourite of the award shows every single year. They're boring, unfunny and as someone mentioned before the trophy itself is pretty ugly. I appreciate that it's an award given to peers by peers, but . . . who needs enemies when you have those friends?

Awful, truly awful. I'm hoping the Globes turns this around with the opposite kind of shock tomorrow. I do expect Lawrence to be mentioned tho. But please give us some Jason Leigh, some Rampling, give us really crazy, but fun!

This sucks. I'm off to bed.

[Claran]

Gosh, so many surprises!! It'd b perfect if....

Best Cast - replace Trumbo w Carol

Best Actress - replace Mirren w Rampling or Mulligan

Best Supp Actor - replace Bale w Keaton or Ruffalo

Best Supp Actress- replace McAdams w JJL

[vladdy]

I told everyone to watch out for Mirren in a comment on an earlier post. No one responded, as if it was so absurd. Now look! Just because you don't like the nominations, it doesn't make much sense to say, "Well, this year the Oscars won't look anything like the SAG Awards because these are stupid nominations," as if the Oscars have never had stupid nominations. They are almost always pretty close.