DGA Chooses Birdman. But Who Wins BAFTA?

It's tough to call this a "surprise" exactly, given that Birdman recently took hom both the PGA's top producing honor and SAG's Best Ensemble but now the celebrated intricate metashowbiztragicomedywhatsit has won the DGA. Alejandro González Iñárritu was previously nominated for Babel. But this isn't actually his first DGA win.

More on Birdman's DGA and BAFTA Predictions after the jump

The Mexican helmer previously won the DGA in the "commercial" category two years ago for this Procter & Gamble commercial "Best Job"

So where does this leave the Best Picture race?

 For some this latest Birdman win has already prompted wailing and gnashing of teeth. The people who dislike this film really dislike it. I still scratch my head wondering why so many respectable critics who normally value inventive, risky and technically complex work hate it so much. Even if you dislike the film it's bad form to pretend that it's a blight on the cinemascape. It's the opposite of safe conventional hack-work and frankly we need more movies as insane and odd as it is. 

DGA versus Oscar
The DGA is not entirely indicative (not that any award is) of where Oscar will go. In the past ten DGA ceremonies, three of the races don't line up. Two of the winning films (Brokeback Mountain and Gravity) lost Best Picture though it's worth noting that in both cases their director still won Oscar gold. And within the past ten years we also had the odd situation of Ben Affleck's Director win for Argo (he was not nominated at the Oscars for directing).

If you stretch back 20 years it's fun to realize that it's basically the same numbers. You can add three more DGA winning films with separate Oscar outcomes: Chicago which won Best Picture and lost Best Director come Oscar time; Saving Private Ryan won Best Director but lost Best Picture; and Apollo 13's Ron Howard, like Ben Affleck, won the DGA but was not nominated for the Oscar in the directing category. 

I still think Boyhood will win the Oscar.  You can't call this prediction wishful thinking really since I love the two films about the same. (They're numbers two and three on my top ten list). In the end Richard Linklater's low key family epic is still less divisive, more traditionally moving and has a better "narrative" given the 12 year journey to make it. I readily admit, however, that Birdman is gaining steam (as is Grand Budapest Hotel which beat Birdman to the Globe) and it feels like a true competition now. Which, I'd like to remind everyone, is GOOD for Oscars. Things should never be a done deal. Voters should always be weighing the merits of choices A, B, C, D, and E (and okay F,G,H in Best Picture, too) before choosing their favorite.

Tonight... or rather early today given the time difference, the BAFTAs are handed out. Below is a list of their nominations previously discussed here with my predictions highlighted in bold. DISCLAIMER: I never ever ever have pretended to be good at BAFTA predictions so take these with a grain of salt, or a block of it. As as short reminder, Grand Budapest Hotel & The Theory of Everything led the nominations with Birdman close behind.

DISCLAIMER: I never ever ever have pretended to be good at BAFTA predictions so take these with a grain of salt, or a block of it. 

BAFTA PREDICTIONS

FILM
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything 

I really want to predict Budapest Hotel just to be shocking. so let's call that my alternate. 

BRITISH FILM
'71
The Imitation Game
Paddington
Pride
The Theory of Everything
Under the Skin 

Given that it's also in the overall film category and the campaign has been working overtime ... let's say Imitation Game... though The Theory of Everything could well take it.

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Ida
Leviathan
The Lunchbox
Trash
Two Days One Night

DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Damian Chazelle, Whiplash
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman 
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
James Marsh, The Theory of Everything 

LEADING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

LEADING ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Imelda Staunton, Pride
Emma Stone, Birdman
Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

If Patricia Arquette is ever going to lose, won't it be here to Keira Knightle--- nah, she's not going to lose.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

RISING STAR
Gugu Mbatha-Raw
Jack O'Connell
Margot Robbie
Miles Teller
Shailene Woodley

OUTSTANDING DEBUT, BRITISH WRITER or DIRECTOR or  PRODUCER
Gregory Burke (writer) & Yann Demange (director), '71
Stephen Beresford (writer) & David Livingstone (producer), Pride
Elaine Constantine (writer/director), North Soul
Paula Katis (director) & Andrew De Lotbiniere (producer), Kajaki: The True Story
Hong Khaou (writer/director), Lilting

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

American Sniper, Jason Hall
Gone Girl, Gillian Flynn
The Imitation Game, Graham Moore
Paddington, Paul King
The Theory of Everything, Anthony McCarten

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Birdman, Alejandor Gonzalez Inarritu, Nicolas, Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris Jr, and Armando Bo
Boyhood, Richard Linklater
Grand Budapest Hotel, Wes Anderson
Nightcrawler, Dan Gilroy
Whiplash, Damien Chazelle 

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman, Emmanuel Lubezki
Grand Budapest Hotel, Robert Yeoman
Ida, Lukasz Zal, Ryzsard Lenczewski
Interstellar, Hoyte Van Hoytema
Mr Turner, Dick Pope 

COSTUME DESIGN
Grand Budapest Hotel, Milena Canonero
The Imitation Game, Sammy Sheldon Differ
Into the Woods, Colleen Atwood
Mr Turner, Jacqueline Durran
The Theory of Everything, Steven Noble 

MAKEUP AND HAIR
Grand Budapest Hotel, Frances Hannon
Guardians of the Galaxy, Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiu, David White
Into the Woods, Peter Swords King, J. Roy Helland
Mr Turner, Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener
The Theory of Everything, Jan Sewell 

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Big Eyes, Rick Heinrichs, Shane Vieau
Grand Budapest Hotel, Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
The Imitation Game, Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana McDonald
Interstellar, Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
Mr Turner, Suzie Davis, Charlotte Watts 

FILM EDITING
Birdman, Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione
Grand Budapest Hotel, Barney Pilling
The Imitation Game, William Goldenberg
Nightcrawler, John Gilroy
The Theory of Everything, Jinx Godfrey
Whiplash, Tom Cross 

Just for kicks I want to predict a surprise here.

VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies 
X-Men: Days of Future Past 

ORIGINAL MUSIC
Birdman, Antonio Sanchez
Grand Budapest Hotel, Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar, Hans Zimmer
The Theory of Everything, Johann Johannson
Under the Skin, Mica Levi 

SOUND
American Sniper
Birdman
Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash 

ANIMATED FILM
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
The LEGO Movie

DOCUMENTARY
20 Feet From Stardom
20,000 Days on Earth
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Virunga

BRITISH ANIMATED SHORT
The Bigger Picture
Monkey Love Experiments
My Dad

BRITISH SHORT
Emotional Fusebox
Boogaloo & Graham
The Karman Line
Slap
Three Brothers

Comments

[Rahul]

Everything splits, American Sniper wins everything. Or The Imitation Game. Then I'll cry Monday morning in my Cinnamon Toast Crunch. I don't know why this awards season is making me so emotional. :(

[Suzanne]

Well, on the bright side, this means he won't be nominated for The (incredibly boring-looking, entirely male) Revenent, right? They are famously one-and-done when it comes to directors - even Bigelow couldn't get an afterglow nod.

This is the time of year I pretty much swear I want to check out of the Oscars every year, because as much as they are good for films - they get people to see movies like Boyhood, Citizenfour and Whiplash, which they would otherwise ignore, and they allow countless films to find financing every year - they are pretty terrible for my own perspectives on films. I start to hate films I found completely average, like Birdman, or The Artist, or The Silver Linings Playbook - films I never would have given a second thought to - because they manage to become frontrunners in a trophy contest. And why do I even care so much about this trophy contest? The vast majority of my favorite movies have come up empty-handed there, and I haven't enjoyed them any less.

[Edwin]

I want the BAFTAs to make this race completely unpredictable. For instance:

Picture- Grand Budapest Hotel
Director- Linklater
Actor- Keaton

Actually, I think Keaton winning the BAFTA would make him a strong frontrunner to win the Oscar given that Eddie Redmayne was heavily favored to win the BAFTA even before he won the SAG award (not just because of British bias, but also because they liked Theory of Everything more than any other awards body, it seems).

But still. If we could go into Oscar night with Picture, Director, AND Actor up for grabs, I'd actually be excited to watch this year. When's the last time all three categories were open like that? 2000, if I'm not mistaken.

[Bia]

It'd be great if BAFTA picked their own unique winners instead of trying to predict Oscar. Oh well...

My happy, unexpected picks would be Rosamund and Rene Russo.

[Erik]

Very nice thoughts on the odd critical hatred for BIRDMAN. I don't get it either. If I had a vote, I'd vote BOYHOOD but BIRDMAN would be a close second.

Disagree on the Oscar race, though. I think it's over. No film has won the DGA, PGA and SAG-Cast and not gone on to win best pic.

[Ben]

Erik - Apollo 13 won all 3 and didn't win BP at the Oscars

[Randall]

Birdman needs to come out big at Baftas and win the following:Picture,Actor,Director,Original Screenplay,Cinematography and maybe other awards too.

[3rtful]

I see Ralph Fiennes being the neglected alternative candidate for BAFTA Best Actor. He has the overdue veteran angle of Keaton and the home turf advantage of Redmayne.

[Mike in Canada]

I think the gnashing of teeth among Birdman's critics comes from the fact that it's such an unlikely frontrunner. I felt this way with Slumdog, like "Why is this happening?!?" I quite like Birdman, but I get how it's frontrunner status would irk people. It's not SUPPOSED to be the frontrunner. (Although neither is Boyhood. The frontrunner is supposed to be crap like Imitation Game.)
At any rate, I agree that it's weirdness and darkness keep it from being a total lock, so I'm pretty thrilled that we get genuine races in pic, director and actor this year.
We've had a few real races in at least one big category the last few years, and I hope the trend continues.

[Henry]

I want to think GBH does better than anyone is expecting. I'm happy with Boyhood and content with Birdman, but GBH is the one I want to see triumph.

Best Actor is the race that BAFTA will influence most.

[Ryan T.]

Shake it up, Oscars! Birdman for Picture, Linklater for Director, Redmayne for Actor, and Grand Budapest for Original Screenplay.

[Johnny]

Well, that's over now.

So, how we feeling about next season's Oscars, huh? Will they give Iñárritu two BP/BDs in a row? Can Harvey strike gold with his power trio of Hateful Eight, Macbeth, and Carol(pls Harv don't butcher this movie pls pls Todd Haynes halp)? Will Leo finally win? Will Mad Max Fury Road sweep EVERYTHING from Best Picture to Best Animated Short?

The answer to that last one is yes, btw

[Paul Outlaw]

- I am so delighted about the DGA outcome. Some of my best friends love Boyhood and Selma but hated Birdman and Whiplash, so I'm used to the vitriol. (Boyhood was by far my least favorite of the four, but I greatly respect the achievement);

- Whiplash remains my insane pick for the editing Oscar, so I hope Nathaniel's BAFTA prediction comes true;

- Fiennes or Gyllenhaal needs to win the BAFTA Best Actor, seriously.

[zig]

It's a welcome surprise for me. I never saw Birdman as a front runner, so I'm glad to see it surge so late, even if comes at the expense of Boyhood. That film is solid, but really got over rewarded through the critics' prizes, with Birdman and Grand Budapest not getting as many mentions as they should have.

[Lucky]

But can Birdman win Best Picture without Keaton getting Best Actor?

All this doubting this late in the game is new and complicated, a breath of fresh air compared to the Slumdog/Hurt Locker/King's Speech years.

[zig]

I agree. It's really nice to see three of the big six prizes a bit up for grabs.

[Joseph]

"Even if you dislike the film it's bad form to pretend that it's a blight on the cinemascape. It's the opposite of safe conventional hack-work and frankly we need more movies as insane and odd as it is."

I hear many who hate it describe it as a pseudo-art film, and for a lot of critics/cinephiles, this is even worse than a generic Hollywood blockbuster. I heard Dargis talking about 'Under the Skin' on a podcast, and she loathed it, saying that "fake art films" are the worst kind of movie in her view.

I'm not saying I agree, but I can understand those who hate 'Birdman' might hate it more than the latest Adam Sandler movie for all that it tries/claims to achieve.

[Suzanne]

But Lucky - Isn't this exactly like the King's Speech year, ie, one film dominates the Globes/critics' awards, and another film proves those awards have essentially no predictive value by winning the SAG/PGA/DGA?

I'd love to believe there were still doubt in the race, but it seems like we're headed for a Birdman win. Redmayne, too, looks well poised to win - they may like Birdman, but Keaton's performance isn't enough to topple someone playing Stephen Hawking.

[Ben H]

As someone who's not a fan of Birdman, and very disappointed that it's taken front-runner status from Boyhood, I fully agree that it's still encouraging that the industry is at least embracing a work that's ambitious and daring.

I also agree that many critics of the film make all-too-easy dismissals by calling it pretentious or too meta. There's enough talent and thought put into the work for it to deserve such treatment. My feelings toward the movie are pretty similar to how I felt about Black Swan, The imagery and sound are dazzling - the performances electric, but the overall quality of the movie doesn't add up to the sum of its parts. There's nothing inherently wrong with a movie being self-reflexive or immersed in pop culture. But for me, when you peel away the layers of symbolism, and the topical beauty of its style, there isn't enough left at Birdman's core. Some of the observations made about the creative process are pretty spot-on, and there's serious contemplation about the search for self value in art. "A thing is a thing, not what is said of that thing". Yet I felt the movie kind of unraveled with the ending, and just doesn't end up being as profound as it wants you to think it is.

[Claran]

Wistful tinkin =.Boyhood & Birdman split the votes & GBH ends up as Best Pic!! lol

I'll still go w Linklater & Keaton at the Oscar, but their are gonna b super tight race

Finally some interestin tight race to look fwd too! :)

[Sijmen]

"The DGA is not entirely indicative (not that any award is) of where Oscar will go. In the past ten DGA ceremonies, three of the races don't line up."

I don't understand this sentence. Only once in the past ten years, the DGA winner didn't win a Best Director Oscar (Affleck), and that was because he wasn't nominated.

Twice in the past ten years, the DGA winner didn't win Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain and Gravity. The latter wasn't expected to win Best Picture.

[Mark The First]

I have nothing to add here other than that photo of AGI above is pure crazypants. You can tell that's someone who's very competitive and likes to win.