Green Book wins the PGA. Is Oscar next?
Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 7:27PM by Nathaniel R
Peter Farrelly accepting the Outstanding Producer for Theatrical Motion Pictures award for "Green Book"
The weekend before the Oscar nominations, Green Book gets another feather in its divisive cap. It took the top PGA prize last night. It was nominated against Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice... most but not all of which will transfer to Oscar Best Picture nominations if past statistics hold. In the nine years of the modern Best Picture era (by which we mean 2009 and onward when the field expanded) only three movies have won the PGA that did not repeat at the Oscars: Gravity (2013), The Big Short (2015), and La La Land (2016). But it's really only two since Gravity tied at the PGA with 12 Years a Slave (the latter of which did not have to share the Oscar for Best Picture). This year's race will give us an even ten years of statistics in this new era. So by the end of the season, future PGA winners will feel like they have either a 70% or an 80% of winning the Oscar. Either way it's something to worry about if you don't like Green Book, and something to cheer for, if you do...
I'm personally wondering if people voting for Green Book aren't digging in their heels a little bit as a sort of 'I'll love what I love' stance after all the think pieces about the film's politics and recent unpleasant PR moments about bad behavior from the director and writer. The thing that might save Green Book in this final lap, unlike Three Billboards which was arguably derailed by the frequent politically charged swipes at it, is that it's essentially a warm movie; voters who love it are apt to feel it's harmless and even inspirational and, as a result, not understand what the people who hate it are fussed about.
One thing that's a bit surprising about Green Book's PGA win, is that the PGA are often (arguably) affected by the box office in their nominations and wins. Despite being branded a flop early on, Green Book was never really that and has had legs at the box office. That said, it's not a big hit either (currently at $41.9 million, or roughly the size of a Widows or a First Man) but so much of its awards appeal was about its "crowdpleasing" nature. Nevertheless, the underperformance at the box office doesn't seem to have dented it. On the other hand was PGA really going to vote Roma for their theatrical motion picture prize when it barely got a release and producers are more on the business side of the movies?
Green Book has now won the NBR, the Globe, and the PGA
Another odd thing that's worthy of note is that if Green Book wins Best Picture at the Oscars, it will be the third year in a row that the SAG winner for Outstanding Cast doesn't equal Best Picture. It never should have, of course, since people should be voting on their categories and not on overall movies, but that's how people have viewed the SAG ensemble award for over a decade. Green Book is not nominated for SAG's top prize.
We know Green Book won't lead the Oscar nominations since its ineligible for Score, and also won't have much play in the visual craft categories, but if it becomes a Film Editing nominee, watch out. I didn't predict it in that category for the Final Predictions and perhaps that was an error.
How do you think this will play out on Oscar night?
THE COMPLETE PGA AWARDS
TELEVISION
Episodic Drama The Americans (Season 6)
Episodic Comedy The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Season 2)
Limited Series The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Televised Motion Picture Fahrenheit 451
Non Fiction Anthony Bourdain: Parts Unknown (Seasons 11 & 12)
Short Form Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Season 5)
Sports Program Being Serena (Season 1)
Game or Competition RuPaul's Drag Race (Season 10)
Outstanding Children's Program Sesame Street (Season 48)
Live Entertainment & Talk Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (Season 5)
MOTION PICTURES
Theatrical Picture Green Book
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Documentary Picture Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Reader Comments (53)
I saw GREEN BOOK for the first time last night and I thought it was wonderful. Can someone tell me where all the hate is coming from and why?
I think you are correct, Nathaniel - there is definitely some "digging in" effect here, particularly since reporting suggests Academy members were displeased with the Moonlight selection. If Green Book does win Best Picture, it certainly isn't a decision that will age well.
I have never thought Roma had a chance (I believe there is a segment of the Academy that will not vote for a foreign-language film for BP, and there is another segment of the Academy that will not vote for a Netflix film for BP, at least right now), so Green Book looks like a strong frontrunner, although it's possible that the SAG best ensemble winner will be a dark horse.
Green Book hasn't been a flop, but people thought it would go the way of The Help and Hidden Figures, and it certainly hasn't done that kind of business. And yet, The Help and Hidden Figures were not taken seriously as Best Picture contenders. Hidden Figures is a much better movie (no white protagonist necessary to pacify the audience, and the real-life figures/family members completely bought in to their on-screen depictions) AND a bigger crowd-pleaser (you still see girls dressed like the characters from that film for Halloween!). It makes me angry.
But hey, those of you who have been rooting for something other than ASIB to win must be pleased!
I loved "Green Book" and hope it wins Academy Award for Best Picture and others. What a beautiful film with a glorious ending.
What Mark Harris said.
"It wasn't nominated against Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star is Born, and Vice... most but not all of which will transfer to Oscar Best Picture nominations if past statistics hold." I think you mean it WAS nominated against... I thought "Green Book" was a well-deserved winner and its chances (along with Golden Globe win) for Oscar gold are solidified.
That's a great point on the PGA not wanting to give this award to a film that would all but forgo a theatrical release. Netflix, itself, less an issue.
Some Oscar voters may feel that way, but not as strongly as one would imagine the PGA would with the definition of their award.
It's hard to reconcile that our Best Picture could be a movie about a man learning not to be racist-- and written by that man's TRUMPITE, anti-Muslim son. It's a painful scenario. Isn't the Academy already embarrassed by its previous poor choices? Why double down now? There were sooooo many good movies in 2018. Why Why Why reward this?
SFOTroy- I agree.
Why? Because it makes them (sadly) feel good
I suspect that Monet XChange GIF is a perfect metaphor for how Green Book's Oscar threat will go...
About its success, I've also heard the "the voters are digging in their heels" argument on Twitter. I don't buy it, thinking voters (particularly of groups less diverse than Oscar) just liked it that much. Isn't the conventional thinking that Oscar voters shy away from controversy, particularly any controversy that makes them seem less progressive/liberal?
Who knew producers loved drag and bad movies so much?
(To add: if Green Book were to win with Oscar now that the Academy is far more diverse--after adding so many POC and foreign folks who probably won't care about Green Book-- it'd have to have an overwhelming amount of support. A film couldn't get that level of support merely from reactionary Academy members "digging in their heels.")
I literally can't figure out which film is going to win BP this year. I didn't really like A Star is Born and Green Book is pleasant enough but not BP material to me...and I can't see Roma winning. So yeah. It's a confusing year.
Why is BlacKkklansman not getting any traction for a win. It boggles my mind
I am also befuddled why some of these comments dislike "Green Book." I thought it was tremendous.
We all should talk more about movies like the Help and Green Book, and why they are so successful with white people.
"Green Book" might no be perfect- the gay reveal scene is specially bad- but over all is a very satisfying movie and the type the Academy loves- a feel good road comedy bromance
Well David here is my personal issue. Green Book talks about racism in a way that is not real and not helpful. Racism is a system of oppression. Segregation, redlining, suntown etc did not happen because whites and blacks "did not hang out enough". However for many white people love the Green Book presentation of racism because they think it means that they are excluded for making any kind of real change. Furthermore, this is artistically, the only version of dealing with race that they accept and award. They like their oppressors in the past (even though we have neo nazis shooting up a synagogue in Pittsburgh) and in the South (so Northerners can feel superior) .
To paraphrase Into the Woods: Green Book's not good, it's not bad, it's just nice. If it wins the top prize, it's unlikely anybody will be talking about the film in a year's time.
I agree with W.J. I enjoyed Green Book just fine, but it's not good, it's not bad, it's just nice. It seems like we should now be beyond the days where we award Best Picture to (at best) a pleasant little movie. Even taking all of the loaded politics out of it (which we shouldn't), there is no single component...or combined set of components...about Green Book that displays excellence in filmmaking, or true artistry of the craft.
Jaragon, what was bad about the gay reveal scene?
I respect the opinion of anyone who does not like the film - and their right to hold it but it is just that - an opinion. Many others, including people of colour have quite a different opinion on the film. So who is right?
Film Twitter does not hold dominion over all film criticism and what others should think about certain movies, no matter what they may believe. And everybody is entitled to like a film without having to bow down to the arbitrary whims of those who deem it to be 'problematic'.
The PGA awards and the Oscars, after all, are collective democratic exercises in which multiple opinions are collated and a winner is chosen. You and others are of course welcome to criticise Green Book to your heart's content. You are welcome to criticise when a film wins a certain award. But the result of the vote is fundamentally representative of the film the producers favoured - not the film you or Film Twitter favoured. Tough luck. That how it has always worked and how it should always work. To want to 'correct' their choices to align with one definitive view doesn't sound very democratic to me. The old adage is true: the world would be a very boring place if we all thought the same.
Have your opinions and voice them loudly and vociferously. But understand that if others don't agree they should not be patronized, hectored and labelled every term under the sun. And for goodness sake, these are the movies! There's so much awful shit going on in the real world it boggles my mind people find the time to kick up a fuss about relatively trivial stuff like this.
Marshako-
Thank you for actually taking the time to respond to me
It’s nice to hear a dissenting opinion other than “ I hated it “.
I don't loved GREEN BOOK as HFPA and PGA loved. Mahershala is my vote for sup actor because I didn't see yet Richard E Grant and the boys of Vice. Mahershala is outstanding. a true great performance. And the movie stopes there for me.
I have to say that I am glad that the ASIB - Black Panther - Blackkklasman - Bohemian Rapsody train has stopped. They are good pictures IMHO, not great. And Oscars for me are ONLY FOR GREAT WORK.
Like Glenn Close in The Wife.
Like The Favourite, The Rider, Leave no Trace for everything.
Thom Yorke, Tilda Swinton and Guadagnino for Suspiria.
Shoplifters. Custody. Tully.
Alessandro Nivola!!!!
This could be our talking this year. Sad that is not.
(I am not saying that people who loved the movies I don't loved are don't understand the things. Opinion are like ass: everyone has your on. )
I loved it.
My thing is that, besides the fact that the film is more intimate and personal than a film about racism. I think that's something that some people don't want to accept.
Plus, racism is oppression. Oppression is systematic. But these things come out of small things. Change over time...well why at all?
Also, taking from Schindler's List, one life and the world entire. If nothing else, these two enriched each other's lives. Had the movie gotten cornball and tried to weave that into some parable about how MLK took their baton and there we go, I'd get it.
My fren, totally unaware of awards controversies or twist n turn, saw Green Book n love it!! He was in tears n tt spoke sometink, Green Book touches the emotional core o alotsa viewers n I suppose, HFPA n PGA, w its simplistic views n good old fashioned kindness.
The online hatred does not deter fr loving it n goin w their hearts.
Said fren also watched ASiB, The Favourite, etc. He likes them but not as much as GB, n in a departure, he prefers Mortensen's performance than Ali's .
He has no problem seeing GB win Oscar, n I guess HFPA n esp PGA tink so too.
CRASH 2.0, which was also a reaction to a film (Brokeback) that fit better into the metrics of what the Oscars ‘should’ be awarded (better reviewed, made more money etc).
Anybody asking why people don’t like GREEN BOOK? There are literally dozens of articles about why.
Green Book = Crash x The King’s Speech. Most voters of awards bodies that I know absolutely love this film. Although problematic, it’s a classic Hollywood road trip movie that tugs at the heartstrings and has 2 strong lead performances. I personally enjoyed the film for what it was (to me, a decent Christmas movie), but it wouldn’t exactly be in my Top 10 for Best Picture.
Having said that, with the way BP is voted for, I could see Green Book winning with a lot of #2 and #3 votes. I still think A Star is Born and Blackkklansman are in the mix, as well as Roma, which will get a lot of #1 votes.
C'mon guys we are talking about the Oscars. They gave an Oscar for best picture to Shakespeare in Love, Titanic, Slumdog Millionaire and company.
Masterpieces like The silence of the lambs, No Country for old men and Birdman win rarely. If you want to see great movies winning you have to follow Cannes, Venice or Berlin.
But you can't expect a real masterpiece to win every year at the Oscars. You have to know that will win a mediocre white and Anglo-Saxon movie. It's their taste and it's just an industry game
https://icsfilm.org/our-yearly-awards/2019-ics-award-nominees/
International Cinephile Society: A total different universe ... and the best movies of the year are there.
Most importantly, this demonstrates there is real ASIB backlash. There is absolutely no logic behind the Producers decision not to award their critically acclaimed megahit nominee, other than some kind of collective disdain - maybe for Gaga or the idea of awarding Cooper for a first-time filmmaking effort. I hate this conspiratorial line of thinking but there is something there.
My ill will with Green Book seems to be how it preaches civil rights, equality, understanding, togetherness, etc., yet quickly takes the greed route to separate their two ‘equal’ actors into separate acting categories. Presuming that Ali is going to slide into the Supporting Category tomorrow-let’s compared their nominations with Pulp Fiction. All you heard for years afterwards, mostly from film critic Roger Ebert, was the outrage that the White actor (John Travolta) was placed in the Lead category while his ‘equal’ co-star, Samuel L. Jackson (Black) was demoted to the Supporting category. It’s funny how Green Book preaches how we are all equal-but let’s not show that equality by placing these two characters together in the same category. Crickets...but it’s probably their strategy to turn up the ‘outrage’ that, once again, it’s still the 1960s to the AMPAS that they’re still placing a black actor ‘below’ his White co-star—but vote for him anyways in the category that He selected himself so that we can still win...
Sawyer -- it's so strange too because what is hateable about A Star is Born? It's the danger of being dubbed a frontrunner early and I'm so annoyed with everyone who was like "it's going to win everything!" -- we should not be anointing frontrunners to win in October. We should only be talking nominations at that point in the year.
Brown Cow -- except that Titanic is awesome. Pop filmmaking at its finest. and Shakespeare in Love is wildly underrated and definitely better than Saving Private Ryan, only disdained because it was a feminine comedy winning over a manly film.
I really liked GREEN BOOK despite feeling a bit abashed about doing so, especially in the wake of some of the revelations about the people behind it. The thing is, judging the movie on its own terms I don't see it as messaging that racism can be "solved" or "cured" by whites and blacks talking to each other. To me, it's just the singular story of two men who expand each other's experiences and form an unlikely friendship (a well used trope, true, but also well executed). And while I do understand the perception that this is another "black character saves white character from his/her own racism" narrative, I think it's got more depth and dimension than that in how it actually plays out. As Nathaniel points out, it's a warm, feel-good movie, and people are responding to the genuine warmth and chemistry between the two main characters.
Now to the extent the movie distorts the nature of the actual relationship between Tony and Don, if it was really made without Don Shirley's consent or against his wishes, that would be wrong, but my impression was he just didn't want to get involved at all and now his family is disputing the movie's portrayal. I would have to know more to know to what extent they should have been consulted, too.
Marshako — well put, thanks for saying that.
Nat (et. al.) — I never get this argument and why you make it: the only reason people dislike ASIB is because it was an early frontrunner and therefore it courts backlash? That seems convoluted and way less likely than people seeing it and just having diverse opinions about it like with any movie. Also someone said something above like “well people who didn’t want ASIB to win, I hope you’re happy.” So I should have rooted for a movie I didn’t like to win so that a worse movie wouldn’t win? Of the actual awards contenders I liked The Favourite, Roma, and Eighth Grade and have rooted for those. I didn’t like ASIB (silly depiction of music industry, arcane and simplistic notions about artistic authenticity, draggy in second half, characters underrealized — nice craft and a few nice moments, though). It’s as simple as that. I hate this whole “haters” narrative; it’s really frustrating. P.S. When was the last time you saw Shakespeare in Love? I used to like it, but my partner and I rewatched it a couple years ago and it aged really poorly; it’s just not all that smart. Saving Private Ryan isn’t good either. I imagine something altogether different should have won that year.
@ Nathaniel I never said that Private Ryan is a great movie and I don't even think it is and I prefer SIL anyway. But in the mix that year we had a lot of most memorable movies as La vita è bella, Velvet Goldmine, American History X and The Truman Show. Or if we want to catch female lead movies there were Central do Brasil or The Thin Red Line (yeah, nature is a woman). The point is that Oscars often go for the 'meh' choice snubbing movies that will make history and if we want to see quality recognized we better look somewhere else and take the Oscars for what they are. A funny game, that's the T
@TOM Horrible, but true
Brown Cow Stunning — well said.
Also it seems like honestly every year now the Academy goes for at least one movie with facile race and gender politics, albeit the loudest (Moonlight being the obvious exception). They’re a simple crowd and don’t like to think too hard about complex issues — they’d rather clumsily project their supposed liberal bona fides. I mean yeesh Three Billboards almost won last year and that movie is — ideologically and from a filmic standpoint — a total mess.
Nathaniel - I really don't think that ASIB's problem is that it was an early frontrunner. Movies have beaten that before (12 Years a Slave, The Artist, Argo), and ASIB looked strong enough to do so as well. There was really no controversy surrounding it, and its competitors are relatively weak.
In summer I posted that I hoped the film was great because it would irritate all the right people (and it did!) and you posted a response basically agreeing - musicals with pop divas automatically alienate people. There were people who were willing to look past that, and people who were not, which hurt it during the critics' awards process.
I also believe it hurt the film that Cooper resisted a lot of typical campaigning. I've tracked both Cooper and Ethan Hawke this season, and poor Hawke, who has no campaign, seems to be working a lot harder on his own just for a nomination. Cooper skipped the Governor's Awards, he didn't participate in Variety's Actors on Actors conversations, and he hasn't been out there doing interviews - Stephen Colbert basically begged him to come on his show during the NBR Awards.
In addition, the movie itself suffered because it's kind of a feel-bad movie (this may have also been why the 1954 version was not an awards-magnet). It's not like The Artist or Birdman, which allow the industry to feel good about themselves in the end.
I actually do think the movie is similar to The Way We Were in that it will age very well and doesn't need any awards to do so - it's already captured the cultural zeitgeist (and Bradley and Gaga don't need Oscars either).
the bad news articles about Farrelly and the writer are a non-controversy. Just people trying to stir up dirt during the heat of awards season, like we always see nowadays unfortunately b
Anyone care to take bets on which 2019 release will be the "Festival-goers love it, critics love it, audiences love it, Twitter decides it's evil incarnate" movie? We get one every year now, I don't see why we wouldn't just pencil it in.
(2018) Green Book (pending)
(2008) Slumdog Millionaire
(1998) Shakespeare in Love
(1988) Rain Man
(1978) The Deer Hunter
Movie years ending with an 8 usually are unsatisfying choices. Shakespeare in Love gets the most grief and it's the best out of the five cited here.
Lynn Lee; Thank you.
Brown Cow Stunning; That's a little simplistic.
Anon -- this is true.
Anonny -- i don't hate Green Book like Murtada does but I really don't think it's a *non* controversy when the writer of a movie about a character getting over his racism co-starring a famous Muslim actor is revealed to be Islamophobic and a fan of fake news via our racist President. I mean... that is upsetting. That said, I think the movie is largely harmless and a more intimate comic story of a friendship on the road than anything that "solves racism" or whatnot that people have levelled against it.
Suzanne -- all good points!
Tim -- that's not the only reason, no, you 're right. Difference of opinion is always (and SHOULD always be) a thing we can all agree on. But I also think people are delusional if they believe that being anointed by everyone before the bull of movies have been seen as THE FRONTRUNNER THAT WILL SWEEP IT ALL tends to annoy people or overwhelm people or set up unrealistic expectations that no movie can live up to. This happens frequently. People go into a movie like that wilth all sorts of baggage that wouldn't be there if internet writers were calmer people and not so eager to be "first!" about everything.
Thomas -- i want to love the ICS but they do that thing where "everyone gets a nomination!" and differing amounts of nominees per category (12 nominees for best picture??? 5 for documentary? 6 for acting? WHAT?) that makes me so crazy. Also I legit don't remember all of the acting nominees. I had to look up who that was for ZAMA supporting actor. He's gorgeous so you think i would have remembered him in the movie if it were a sensational performacne. Hmmm.
But at least the ICS doesn't go crazy with category fraud like other organizations do. And for that I thank them profusely.
/3rtful -- Funny coincidence you've spotted. It's true even further back too.
(1968) OLIVER! (endless grief this one gets)
(1958) GIGI (surely the least popular musical film to ever win Best Picture)
I guess it ends there. people don't seem to mind HAMLET or YOU CAN'T TAKE IT WITH YOU or WINGS all that much.
Unlike so many here, I didn't see A Star Is Born until very recently. Based on reviews and comments, I expected to like it quite a bit more than I did. Bradley Cooper probably deserves Best Actor more than anybody this year for his moving performance, but I can't imagine why anyone thinks he could sniff Cuaron's feet at Best Director. That movie was such a mess! I was moved by Lady Gaga's performance in the "Shallow" sequence but that was about it. She's just nowhere near a natural enough actress to be in such contention in the category. And I really wonder if Cooper's status as a new director meant he should've asked her for a few more takes in some key scenes. Isn't it possible that despite the fact that it resonated with mass audiences, it fell just a bit short with most critics, awards bodies, and guild members compared to some of the other films? Yes, even Green Book, despite its own obvious flaws.
Nathaniel; Not to get too into this, but think it's easy to call him a racist. He's in to himself a lot more than he's against anything. He's got no problems being friends with rich anybodys.
As far as the writer. I honestly didn't hear much other than the one tweet. I get the impression that more has been uncovered? On the face of it, it's scary when anyone retweets or gets on board with anything that guy says, even if it's about how the sky is blue. But, as irresponsible as that would be, or to make the ludicrous suggestion Trump made, there's always the chance that maybe he saw something small happening in Jersey City.
That said, I know that the manner in which he said it isn't the same as reporting a few people doing something wrong. I'm just giving a chance because I don't know how far it goes, and of course I think one should recognize the connotations of a tweet like that.
Hopefully that all makes sense.
Me -- i'm not actually sure who you're talking about in that first paragraph.
Nathaniel; I'm not saying he's not racist, I just think his main evil attribute is his narcissism. I don't know that he hates any particular minority, so much as he favors absolutely anything that favors him.
Lol, I can't tell the difference between who and what.
Trump