April Foolish Predix Pt 4: Best Picture Contenders?
Monday, April 20, 2020 at 11:55PM 
We'll finish up our April Foolish' work with the acting categories this week but for now all the other pieces of the prophetic (or not) puzzle are in place. You can see it all at the Prediction Index. We're usually about half right about Best Picture this early on but... which half? And of course this year is wildly different. It's the only time we've ever had a nationwide movie theater shutdown. Georgia plans to reopen movie theaters this month (medical experts think any such reopenings of crowd venues are premature) but most States aren't eager to risk it just yet.
About the current crisis and the Oscars....
We've already discussed the hysteria about what might happen with the Oscars but let's dive in again since after we published our (optimistic) thoughts, more "the sky is falling" conversations hit the internet.
Unavoidable Truth: There will be fewer movies eligible for the Oscars in 2020 than there have typically been for many many many Oscar years now.
Forthcoming Sure-to-be Ubiquitous Complaint That Will Probably be a Falsehood:
"They can't hold the Oscars because there aren't enough movies!"
In the 1970s and 1980s there were reportedly fewer than 150 movies opening annually. Nowadays it's more like 700 per year which is even more pictures than in Hollywood's Golden Age (though the movies aren't half as popular since television didn't yet exist back then). Of those 700 or so that open about half of them end up being Oscar eligible. So the Academy usually has over 300 pictures to choose from and then promptly settles on only about 15 to pay any attention to at all. In short, a lot more movies have been coming out in this past decade than used to come out.
There's no reason that drawing from a smaller pool of eligible releases should be a problem unless the Academy panics. If movie theaters reopen, by, let's say, October... that's six months of movie releases (Jan-March/Oct-December) and so, even if you cut the year in half, it's still more movies than were released in some years within the 1970s and 1980s and they didn't cancel the Oscars back then. (Now, if movie theaters don't reopen in the fall, we will have been proven wrong. It is possible that theaters don't reopen in 2020. We just dont think it's probable.)
Will any of these titles become Best Picture contenders?
So those Oscar predictions?
On our Best Picture chart we've mostly centered on prestige projects and possible critical darling indies that are either completed or in post-production already. Anything that still has filming to do (after Hollywood goes back to work) we're assuming will end up in 2021 or 2022. We can't consider anything a sure thing in this unfortunately dangerous and volatile year.
So please receive these early bird predictions as they were intended: a bit of enthusiastic Oscar-loving foolishness while we wait for our beloved cinema to return to us via movie theaters. Some of the pictures you see on the chart will crash and burn (and become future candidates for Joe & Chris's "This Had Oscar Buzz"). Others will get pushed to 2021. But SOME OF THEM will end up celebrating their good fortune next February at the Oscars as nominees. TAKE A LOOK.
Reader Comments (21)
In Argentina what they did before shutting down theatres was establish a limited capacity. That is, there had to be a free seat between members of the audience. So if your screen had a 200-seat capacity, there could only be 100 people, and 200 was the maximum. That is, if the theatre had a 600-seat capacity, there could only be 200 spectators.
Theres talk that this will be the policy to reopen them, at least initially.
Thanks so much for doing this Nat, the April Foolsish predictions are a highlight of the cinematic calendar and always start to identify movies I didn't know I wanted to see.
Personally I remain optimistic that cinemas will be opening again later in the year, albeit with reduced capacity. However even if they don't I think the need for the Oscar's will be even greater. Eventually some of the films that are ready now will go the Trolls route and stream. The Academy still partially exists as a marketing tool for prestige cinema so to as the studio income falls the need to advertise these movies will grows and the Academy will be forced to change their rules on eligibility.
Here in my dumb-fuck state of Georgia, movie theaters are going to be re-opened this coming Monday and honestly, I don't feel safe about it. Gyms, bars, and other places are going to be re-opened. Man, we're so fucked.
Thank you nathaniel for everything you’ve done ! can’t wait for acting predictions
Thank you for doing these predictions! West Side Story is probably my favorite movie musical ever, so I'm still a bit skeptical of this film but the recent photos from the set have made me more optimistic.
Do you think it's possible at all that the Academy could extend the qualifying release criteria this year from Dec 31st to, say, mid February and have the Oscars this year in late March/early April? I'm old enough to remember the days when it was commonplace to hold the ceremony in spring.
Fincher was supposedly halfway finished with Mank around Christmas last year, so I assume he was able to finish filming before all productions were halted in March. Who knows how long post will be for this movie but I think it's possible it's ready in time this fall (and it's Netflix - so they already barely have a theatrical release so the lack of theaters wouldn't really be a problem). I also think Blonde is being distributed by Netflix. I can't wait for that one.
Thank you so much for doing these, Nathaniel! They are such a treat to read. :)
Thank you!!
This is always the best time of the year, anticipating all the movies that we're all hopefully going to be able to watch in theatres this year.
I am very impressed with this field, a lot of top flight directors with interesting projects. I like your choices, I am hoping that Dune will be a hit. I am hoping "West Side Story" and 'In the Heights" do well. I am optimistic, some countries are dealing quite well with the virus, the world won't stay locked up forever. Caution will be needed, distancing in the theatre will be the new policy
What movies will Georgia be showing in its theaters? Invisible Man? Onward? Trolls World Tour? Emma? Movies that are already available on streaming services?
The Father is about an lonely elderly man growing increasingly deranged in his self-isolation. Features an acting legend (Hopkins) and recent winner (Colman). Sounds like ideal Corona-era Oscar bait to me.
Do you think Brazil's Bacurau will have some space at the Oscars? In any other year I'd never expected that, but now wouldn't it be at least a psosibility for film and/or director?
I liked your predictions and I liked to add No time to die and Mank to your final ballots.
I think that a year with a small number of pictures could be a good year.
But, I am afraid of the not English language films. Cannes is a great window to show them to the world. Without Cannes, how the things will be for them?
I think the only possible change is the studios asking to the film's to be complete one year after their release. To not kill the box office and streaming services when we face a pandemic or war time.
I have to doubt Hillbilly Elegy will make the impact you seem to think it will. Maybe an acting play (maybe, but not at all certain) for Close and/or Adams. But it seems like it's about three years out of date (think Three Billboards) and Ron Howard hasn't been favored with the Academy since 2009 - for a movie most people want to forget.
Blonde is actually Netflix. Ditto Sophia Loren's The Life Ahead and Melissa McCarthy's The Starling
Jesus Was My Homeboy (Daniel Kaluuya film) is Warner Bros.
I actually have high hopes for Deep Water. I've been waiting for Adrian Lyne to return and this story sounds very much his alley. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Affleck gets a nom. He plays an interesting character in it. I don't think your crazy for thinking it might be a contender.
Oh, Nathaniel... Lin Manuel Miranda confirmed "In the Heights" will be release till Summer 2021.
jules -- i have to doubt everything i've just posted! :) we dont even have any idea what movies will actually open in this insane year.
This year’s predictions are even more fun! Gosh, with April Foolish and Smackdown’s AND Seasons of Bette on the way we are truly blessed by you our overlord!!!
Scarlett -- i'm not sure who started spreading this rumor that Seasons of Bette is returning that I keep seeing in the comments but that's unlikely with all the Smackdown business going on (which is a ton of work)
I was very much looking forward to IN THE HEIGHTS later this year; guess I will have to wait a little longer.
But the 10 films in your Tiers 1 and 2 are all intriguing to me, so there's still heaps to look forward to.
Thanks again for doing these April Foolish predictions - they're a happy diversion for so many of us, me included!
When will you do actresses and actors????