Five Reasons the Oscars Won't Be Cancelled. (Relax)
Wednesday, April 15, 2020 at 12:45PM by Nathaniel R
Regular readers know that we put our Punditry hat on and whip out the foggy crystal ball each year about this time. The reason is an attempt to predict the Oscar nominations nearly a full year in advance each season. We tend to do alright at this admittedly silly endeavour (silly because 90% of the films haven't yet been seen.) But 2020 is different. Perhaps you've noticed that movies haven't been opening for a full month now and all filming stopped in Hollywood. Some pre and post-production business is still happening in Hollywood but in very limited work-from-home capacity. In the twenty years of running The Film Experience we've truly never seen anything like this!
However, we wish to sound a note of optimism that you generally won't get elsewhere on the web due to the click-bait happy tone and echo chamber hysteria so many sites opt for. We don't feel there's any reason to assume that the Oscars will be cancelled. Here's why in five reasons...
Reason 1. History. They've never been cancelled.
In 92 years (nearly a century people!) nothing has ever stopped the Academy from continuing forward. Now, they have been postponed three times (Los Angeles flooding in 1938, the Martin Luther King Jr assassination in 1968, and the attempt on President Reagan's life in 1981) but never by more than a week. It's a remarkably sturdy brand. We say sturdy because people have been declaring them "Over!" for as long as we've been alive and they keep on chugging and remain the highest rated awards show in the world (by a considerable margin, too). World War hasn't stopped the Oscars. Terrorism hasn't stopped the Oscars. Political asssassinations haven't stopped the Oscars. Weather hasn't stopped the Oscars. Declining ratings (though nobody ever notes that the ratings are still absurdly high in context) haven't stopped them.
Reason 2. Timing. Oscar's calendar will prove helpful.
We can't imagine that a pandemic will stop them, unless it had occurred during the peak of the season. COVID-19 politely waited (at least in the US) until the previous Oscar season had wrapped and Parasite had won its historic Oscars before it began to wreak havoc.
The Tony Awards are in dire shape of course but here's the very obvious very marked difference: The peak of the harrowing pandemic's disruption in the US is happening EXACTLY during the American theater's busiest window and the epicenter is the home of the Tonys, New York City. Each year from about February through May dozens of new Broadway shows open in a very small geographical radius, hoping to nab Tony nominations and buzz for the televised ceremony in early June. It's not, in spirit, much different than the glut of film releases that happen from October through December, hoping for Oscar gold in February. The Oscar calendar year runs January 1st to December 31st exactly while the Tony calendar runs roughly June through May though dates vary from year to year. In both cases the bulk of the contenders wait for the last few months of the season to show their faces, hoping to be fresh in the memory and/or in the sudden infatuation stage of love's cycle when it comes to the voters.
Reason 3. The Emmys provide a Test Run.
Though we wish the Academy were more confident in their own estimable powers it's been easy to notice over the past decade that they're strangely looking to lesser-rated awards shows for cues on how to operate. The Emmys calendar runs summer to summer (a bit similar to the Tonys though roughly 100,000 times as many things are eligible) but their ceremony is held in September. While pessimistic projections of the coronavirus's impact suggest that it will continue to haunt us all year, the Emmys, unlike the Oscars or the Tonys, are handing out awards to a piece of the showbiz pie that doesn't involve physically having to go somewhere in crowds to see a thing.
Emmy FYC campaigns are taking much different more subtle shapes this year due to the lack of events and schmoozing but there'd really be no reason to cancel the awards since the eligibility window has provided a ton of art that everyone can judge from home. It's possible that the Emmy Awards will be postponed or be less festive in some production way or less of a live everyone-in-Hollywood-attending kind of way but they will go on.
Reason 4. That production halt. What about that?
One of the more convincing arguments as to why everyone should worry that there won't be an Oscar ceremony in February 2021 is that Hollywood abruptly halted production on just about every movie a month ago. The theory goes that movies will just not be ready to open by the end of December to qualify. Sometimes post-production is a lengthy process. Etcetera etcetera. This theory ignores the fact that some people in Hollywood are very fast. Hell, it would be just like Clint Eastwood (who turns 90 next month) to film a movie in November 2020 and have it in theaters the next month in time to qualify. It also ignores the fact that many movies aiming for the tail end of the year (Dune, West Side Story) or that were aiming for summer blockbuster status are already completed and/or don't have that much post-production work to endanger a release IF Hollywood reopens their work places in late summer or early fall.
This theory also ignores the fact that there are dozens of movies opening every week all throughout the year in a usual year but the Oscars largely ignore anything that opened before October! Provided that movie theaters reopen by October, the Oscars should be fine in terms of enough eligible content. Generally speaking upwards of 600 movies are released a year with around 350-400 of them being Oscar eligible (i.e. jumping through the right paperwork hoops to qualify). That's a far higher number than Oscar used to have to choose from. Here's a chart from Stephen Follows on the number of film releases in US cinemas over the past few decades.
Far more movies are released now than in recent decades in Hollywood. So if they only had 120 or so options in 1980, why couldn't they proceed to judge 2020 on, say, 1/4th of what they judged 2019 on?
Reason 5. Campaign worries -- but Oscars already FYC you at home!
Though the Academy loves to note that they believe in the theatrical tradition, they have long since succumbed to the at-home experience. A long long time ago they started providing their members with the chances to view the movies at home rather than in cinemas via VHS screeners then DVDs then Blu-Rays and now either of those plus online viewing links. There are sometimes one or two films in a season that won't budge on "you must see it in the theater" but the bulk of movies get very expensive ad campaigns that are meant to reach people within their homes: screeners, swag, print and onlline advertisements.
Even if campaigning or promotional events are muted for this upcoming season (very possible) the FYC spirit will remain in Hollywood. Everyone loves those gold statues.
Our April Foolish Predictions will begin tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Reader Comments (36)
I’m more concerned with the pool of movies to choose from. How fair and deserving are the nominees truly going to be when there’s about a fraction of the choices of a normal year?
Nat: Do you think that at least one pre outbreak movie should be an across the board Oscar contender? I'm leaning on yes, and it'd probably be Invisible Man.
The Invisible Man is overrated.
Adri - you may be right to be concerned, but this could also be an opportunity for films generally considered too 'small' or 'genre'.
Maybe Sundance titles like Minari, Promising Young Woman or Worth be watched as serious contenders and not just for Indie Spirits. Maybe February releases like Emma. or the Invisible Man which might normally be forgotten will pick up some extra notice. Maybe the wonderful relief of going back to cinemas for the first major blockbuster after the quarantine might generate buzz for titles like Tenet or WW1984. Maybe the Academy might find themselves watching animated films and recognising the achievement that can come from a perfect voice performance, or even look to international cinema again.
Sure we might see the usual types of movies nominated from the usual sources with the usual uninspired 5th slots in most categories but I choose to believe this could be a banner year for interesting titles and exciting choices from an Academy that looks wider than it ever has before.
Honestly, with enough Smackdowns and the imminent belated final chapters of Seasons of Bette coming, I'd be fine with the Oscars skipping a year. But more realistically and for my OCD, they need to just announce the new guidelines for eligibility and let it all play out from there. Pretty simple, there are enough movies in the can already to be eligible, plus there are often brilliant contenders from the first half of the year that are ignored because of late season Oscar politics and recency bias. Without all that we will still have a chance at a lineup better than regular years.
Editor -- this site cant survive without the Oscars (it's our source of revenue via FYC ads) so you won't see any of those things going forward or even the site itself if the Oscars are cancelled. so dont act like it wouldn't be missed. lol.
BJT: I mean, as far as nominating voice stuff goes? Consider 2015. After the Globes, the Lead Actress race really consolidated to just 6 plausible nominees. 3 of the Globe Drama Nominees, including the winner (the other two were getting fraud campaigns), the Globe Comedy Winner (which should have been Tomlin in a walk, but...sigh), Charlotte Rampling and Amy Poehler. The best 5 person field out of that six would have involved dropping Lawrence for Poehler, but instead...yeah. And if the acting branch couldn't "go there" in a field that thin? They're clearly NEVER going to go there.
If there’s fewer films to choose from the best picture field should go back to 5!
Henny: Is 6-10 still going to be less than the top 10% of what's eligible? 46 movies released before the outbreak and a total of, at least, 130 movies still scheduled so...yes. Then, so long as it at least LOOKS Stugeon's Law compliant, everything's FINE with the current system.
Thank you for the reassurances! Coronavirus may take my freedom but it better not take my Oscars!
Of next years early big hopes, do we know how what is and isn’t completed?
I wonder if movies on streaming services will get Oscar love if unable to get an Oscar qualifying run in select theatres? Thinking of Netflix.
Volvagia: Oh, absolutely, the Academy has consistently dropped the ball on spotting voice performances, and maybe this isn't the year (who knows at this point), I'd just like to imagine they'll be looking at performances differently this year.
If this insanity is over by the fall - they will be able to release plenty of movies to nominate
I'm with you on this prediction. The Oscar ceremony was over in February and then it seemed like the coronavirus is all I have read about, (and worried about since).
There will be some trial runs, Emmys, TIFF? Venice? Creative people all over the world have a stake in making this happen. Where there's a will, there's a way.
Let's not forget Ben Affleck for "The Way Back" as a worthy nominee from the first quarter.
I would be crestfallen if we didn't have the Oscars. We all would, in different ways.
I'm just dying to see the April Fools Predictions especially given the current circumstances!
@Henry - I totally agree. They should absolutely go back to 5 this year, if the output of films is significantly lower, which it appears it will be. Personally, I've been wanting them to go back to 5 for ages.
Perhaps the Academy will finally be be forced to watch and consider the merits of films at the beginning of the year. Grand Budapest Hotel, Black Panther, and Get Out are the only films in recent memory that premiered in the first quarter of the year and managed to achieve significant awards success.
We have Never Rarely Sometimes Always and Emma. already. Both are very good. I haven't seen it, but have also heard really great things about Elisabeth Moss's performance in Invisible Man.
I also think they won't cancel the Oscars, for sure they are going to be different... but now I am thinking about Best International Film, its window ends in September, and usually they rely on summer festivals.
We just came from the best representation of global cinema at the Oscars, I hope the level of submitted films doesn't drop.
I hope this leads to Kate Winslet's second Oscar for Ammonite.
Most Oscar films come out after September so please God please this shit we are going through has to be over by then!
Aaron: As I said, the question isn't "is the film count going to be significantly lower", it's "is it going to be significantly lower ENOUGH that a 6-10 system would be a clear violation of Sturgeon's Law" and...no. Right now, there are at least 130 films scheduled (for theatres?) this year. If the number keeps dropping and it falls between 90 and 99? Set the maximum at 9. 80 and 89? 8. And so on until we get to less than 60 released films, as unlikely as that extreme is (pre outbreak already got out almost 50, so less than 60 would basically require 0 films to release theatrically the rest of the year). At that point, and ONLY that point, should it go back to a flat 5 system.
Everyone will be wearing masks designed by Marc Jacobs and it will be fine.
If Glenn Close wins Best Supporting Actress for Hillbilly Elegy I hope she stays home and accepts it via Instragram.
Regardless of any stats or Laws or extenuating circumstances, Best Picture should go back to five permanently. PERIOD!
Peggy Sue, pretty sure Glenn is the Lead in "Hillbilly Elegy", but she'll probably fraud.
Peter -- I think the lead would have to be Gabriel Basso -- It's based on a memoir by J.D. Vance and that's who is playing J.D. Vance. I believe Amy plays his mom and Glenn his grandmother. I know i need to read the book before spouting off but based on the descriptions of the novel it sounds like Glenn Close has the largest supporting role (and it's a super juicy role).
Nah, I think that a set 10 field is better than 5 any day. Don't funk it up upthread "Henny". (Or Henny Sue, whoever you are).
I’m actually not concerned that there will be enough movies in the pool to choose from. Nathaniel’s chart neatly shows that previous years operated with less movies opening.
I wonder if tastes will have shifted. We might appreciate comedies more. We might have been watching some smaller movies and some older movies and classic movies during this time, and different things about them have resonated with us.
Some of the “big” movies planned and executed “before” might look vainglorious to us now. And tone deaf to the things we have decided really matter.
(And I think that the “adri doppelgänger” should have no worries about posting under their own handle. Their opinions are just part of the mix).
adri -- this is why i'll never understand the "impostors". It's all just opinions. Own your own!
It's funny when they impersonate great characters!
"Invisible Man" gets nod, and one way or another DUNE and WEST SIDE STORY come out and score at least ten each. There may, depending on the breaks (when the theaters open), be some groaners--Jamie Lee Curtis up for Best Actress for HALLOWEEN, TOO--but it's going to happen.
Here's a thought:
Eligibility 2020: January 2020 through 28 February 2021.
Eligibility 2021: 1 March 2021 through 31 January 2022
Eligibility 2022: 1 February 2022 through December 2023
Considering the shutdown this would be roughly:
2020 approx. 9 months
2021: 11 months
2022: 11 months
If this really puts a damper on releases all the way up to 2021, in a pinch, they could bump Picture to 5 nominees and all other categories to 3 nominees, for this year only.
Nathaniel, thank you for the great points you make in this wonderful article. We must have the Oscars—we simply MUST! They are a necessity and I’m not kidding.
If there's ever gonna be a time where Netflix steps its pussy up and wins BP, it has to be now when everyone's binging on the streaming service. "The Irishman" should have been held back a year, TBH.