Highlights from Middleburg's "Coffee & Contenders"
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 1:00PM by Nathaniel R
Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangcay and I created this annual panel at Middleburg together (I named it!) and now we're a regular event early in the morning at the beginning of each fest. The new venue, outside in a tent, is a big improvement over our initially cozy but cramped space while the crowd is the (wonderful) same. Here are highlights from the public discussion this morning as well as the private discussions before and after the event (it all blurs together at film festivals which are so social)...
KEY POINTS
BELFAST
Best Picture (which will now be 10 films wide as it was in 2009 and 2010) is wide open as to what will be nominated. Why? Well a lot of films that have screened already or been released are still on the table with about SIX potentially major players still not having screened extensively or at all yet (Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Don't Look Up, Nightmare Alley, Being the Ricardos, and House of Gucci). Plus, voters will have to fill out all ten slots again so the chances of populist titles that need less critical support (the Blind Sides if you will) slipping in is greater again. That said, if you're a smaller more divisive title #1 votes will matter so specific passion still helps.
Belfast is the consensus frontrunner to win (at this stage). Middleburg has shown the eventual Oscar winner for Best Picture 6 of its 8 years thus far and Belfast, King Richard, Power of the Dog, Spencer are all screening this weekend so we expect it will be 7 of 9 soon.
FLEE
Everyone believes that Flee will pull off some kind of never-done-before double (Animation + either International Film or Documentary) and hopes are there that it can pull off a never-done-before triple (all three). If it pulls off only Doc and International (should Denmark submit it) that would not be a first since Honeyland accomplished that two years back.
Will Smith and Kristen Stewart are the lead acting frontrunners (disagreements abound as to who might be nominated alongside them though).
THE FUZZY STUFF -- FUN TO ARGUE ABOUT !
Belfast hopes to pull off not one but TWO double noms in the supporting categories. That hasn't happened since The Last Picture Show (1971) so know that it's exceedingly rare. Can Belfast really hog 40% of the acting nominations?
Kristen Stewart is only a soft frontrunner since we all think Jessica Chastain is formidable competition, because unlike Kristen she a) is overdue and b) really excels at press and schmoozing which are important in Oscar season especially within tight races. That said Chastain is in a weird position in that she's someone you can imagine winning if nominated or being a surprise snub.
Nobody agrees on who gives the best performance in Mass (I have personally heard all four individual actors cited when talking to people about this film) but the campaign is focused around Ann Dowd who clearly has the most awards-bodies momentum, career-wise.
CODA
Bleecker Street (Mass) and Apple (CODA) are trying and they've got quality films but does either distributor really understand the Oscar game yet?
Best Cinematography is fascinating and ridiculously competitive this year. We have four major contenders shot in black and white (Belfast, Passing, Tragedy of Macbeth, C'mon C'mon) a visual choice we know the Academy stans for, and two major contenders shot by female cinematographers (Power of the Dog, Spencer) and as you probably know only one female cinematographer has ever been nominated so two strong contenders at once is quite worthy of noting. That's six films that feel strong in the category and that's even before you get to other major possibilities from the previously nominated DPs of Dune, West Side Story, Cyrano, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, Don't Look Up, House of Gucci, The Last Duel and King Richard. All that plus there's at least three more from female DPs (Zola, In the Heights, Annette) to consider.
FUZZY PT 2 -- IN THIS MORNING'S PRODUCTION NATHANIEL WILL PLAY THE ROLE OF DISSENTING VOICE
This was not intentional at all and perhaps we'll call it the LA/NYC divide (though that's an accident of location since Clayton only recently moved to LA) but I accidentally became the dissenting voice. For instance, Clayton and Jazz believe Dune is a major deserving player across the board and in Picture / Director. I'm doubtful on the latter two because of the film's structure which places the ending just as you think the film will really get going, after a small one-on-one battle. The anti-climax makes it unsatisfying as a whole even while its parts are impressive. At least for this viewer. I see it as more of a Carol or Skyfall in terms of Oscar, i.e. big in techs but iffy in the top categories.
The other place we parted ways (though we all still love the film) was Power of the Dog; Clayton and Jazz both emphatically claim that it is Jane Campion's best film while I believe that that honor goes still, quite easily, to The Piano (1993). Mind you, that is not a knock against Power of the Dog. You can be the best film of any random year without being better than The Piano, the best film of its entire decade.
Had you been at this event, what question would you have asked? Perhaps it will inspire a future post or a discussion right here... the race is really only just beginning!
Best Picture, Middleburg, Oscars (21), Punditry, film festivals
Reader Comments (16)
It's a real shame if only Dowd is pushed of the Mass cast,would feel like a poke in the eye if I was one of the other 3 who from reviews are all just as good,I am all for Dowd getting a nomination though not if she pushed at the expense of the other 3 and as the only one worthy of it.
I think that the Best Actress race would be way more clear if Cruz's performance was in English. She would be the clear frontrunner, gvien the role and performance. I think that pundits are really underestimating her chances of nom and of win. I saw the film on Tuesday and find it difficult that anyone that actually sees the film would vote for ANOTHER mimmicking Hollywood Oscar vehicle in a biopic (glamourized, specially) over the raw emotions portrayed by an already stablished Hollywood star, directed by one of the most anticipated foreign language directors.
We're not talking about Demian Bichir or Fernanda Montenegro when the got their noms. We're talking about an Oscar winner directed by another Oscar winner and living legend. Eyes are on Parallel Mothers since it was filmming... most AMPAS and SAG members will see the film
Somehow I’m having a hard time seeing Will Smith win the Oscar this year, but I suppose we’ll see. Honestly, no one really jumps out to me as a real Best Actor frontrunner at the moment. I do want to say, however, that I think people may be underestimating Udo Kier’s chances of being nominated. It’s a career-best role for an actor who has never really been in the Academy’s wheelhouse but has nonetheless become a sort of beloved cult icon. There’s almost no chance he’ll win, but I can see critics getting behind him enough to make it into the final lineup.
If the post-screening Q&A yesterday is any indication, Kristen Stewart is in it to win it this season (and I know she did at least one other Q&A in Los Angeles last night). She may not be as skilled at schmoozing at some of the other contenders, but she's certainly giving it a shot. It also doesn't hurt that she's—to fall back on a cliché—a "revelation" in the role.
*cough* I don't actually like The Piano *cough*
Am I crazy to think Nightmare Alley has the best shot at knocking Belfast out of the top BP spot? It's the only film I could see building on late momentum to that degree.
Fingers crossed for Chastain getting in, but I'm surprised people are picking her as a possible winner.
I feel like CODA isn't going to get the shot it deserves. It might just be Matlin, or maybe even no nominations. Is Apple doing anything to promote it? Even on Apple+ it isn't prominent.
I guess Clayton must be devastated with the news of the Globes making a comeback. Comfort him next time.
@Edwin
I'd love to see Udo Kier nominated, But in a similar case, Richard E. Grant, got the nomination thanks to a film that was heavily buzzed to be multinominated, including Best Picture. To get the nom, the film probably should score buzz for way more than him, to raise attention... otherwise, we would be talking about Nicholas Cage's second Oscar, for Mandy, some years ago.
Stewart has against her a bit of data: no "out" LGTB performer ever won, with maybe the exception of Tilda Swinton, but I am unsure if she was publicly out as bisexual back then.
@ Jésus Alonso
That stat would likely work for rather than against Stewart this year. (Ditto for Kier, though I don't see them both winning at the same time.)
Since they’ve expanded the BP field, the only Best Picture frontrunners that have maintained the top spot from October through the ceremony are Nomadland (which was released in a very odd year) and 12 Years a Slave (which was really a co-frontrunner with Gravity). Both had enormous support from critics.
I doubt Belfast can do it. I think our BP winner is something that hasn’t widely screened yet.
Jules -- you make a good point. you dont want to be the frontrunner too early.
@Nathaniel R
Indeed, that only really works with quite "undeniable" projects like "Schindler's List", "Amadeus", "Titanic" or "Return of the King"... and all of them have something in common: sweeps.
But some other "undeniable" films, frontrunners from year-in-advance, bit the dust, most notably - thank God - "Saving Private Ryan".
But one could argue that "Nomadland" was also the year-long frontrunner last year...
Jesus - I was thinking about this yesterday and I believe Angelina was openly bi when she won. I know she had acknowledged dating her Foxfire co star Jenny Shimizu.
More then any other year I think box office will come into play this Oscar season. They will want to celebrate people going back to cinemas and may reward blockbusters. This might allow Dune to get a best picture nomination.
As for the best actress race, if Spencer ends up being a sleeper hit then Stewart has a big advantage. When I first heard they were making a movie about Tammy Faye, my literal first reaction was "who is the audience for this?" I live in Los Angeles and I am having a hard time finding a cinema that still has this movie. Chastian can play the game better but Stewart's film will undoubtedly make more money.
More then any other year I think box office will come into play this Oscar season. They will want to celebrate people going back to cinemas and may reward blockbusters. This might allow Dune to get a best picture nomination.
As for the best actress race, if Spencer ends up being a sleeper hit then Stewart has a big advantage. When I first heard they were making a movie about Tammy Faye, my literal first reaction was "who is the audience for this?" I live in Los Angeles and I am having a hard time finding a cinema that still has this movie. Chastian can play the game better but Stewart's film will undoubtedly make more money.
Am I crazy to think Denzel is the Best Actor frontrunner? Feels like the Academy is itching to give him another at their next excuse. Will Smith has been in the wilderness too long to win I think unless the movie really hits the zeitgeist on release.
Peter - I also think Denzel is the frontrunner. I just don't see Will Smith winning against him. He's one of these actors who does one quality movie every 6-7 years despite working constantly and having the power to spearhead any project he wants.