Oscar Chart: Who gets the fifth slot in Best Supporting Actress?
Wednesday, December 29, 2021 at 7:40PM by Nathaniel R
Will there be room for both Anitas in the Best Supporting Actress race?
Nothing much has changed in the Best Supporting Actress competition over the past month except the arrival of West Side Story but, provided you left a slot open for the new "Anita" (Ariana DeBose) sight unseen -- since that role is always an awards magnet -- chances are your predictions haven't changed much since seeing the film. Even all the critics prizes and the arrival of the bigger precursors like NBR, Globe, Spirits, Gothams, and Critics Choice nods did a grand total of not much to solve the question of the "fifth slot"... only to cement that we have four near-sure things: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Kirsten Dunst (Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard), and Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) who keep showing up in every list.
So who gets that fifth slot? That is the loaded multi-actress question...
Rita Moreno (West Side Story) nabbed a Critics Choice nomination and she's an interesting proposition given that an Oscar nomination would be such a record-breaker in so many ways, both returning for a remake of her Oscar-winning classic and in a different role and 60 years later, too. The fact that she Executive Produced the movie adds to the Moreno-celebratory feeling. But will Oscar go there? They're hard to predict when it comes to sentimentality, sometimes having lots of it and other times being immune to that emotional pull.
Ruth Negga (Passing) nabbed both Globe and Gotham nominations but mostly critics haven't rallied despite a spellbinding high-wire performance. All four women who are expected to land nominations with ease are doing good work but some of their roles are, quite bluntly, simple tasks once they're placed up against the intricacies of what she's required to convey to get this movie across. Can sheer quality land her in the race? We're doubtful right now, partially because Passing has been strangely overshadowed in Netflix's overflowing stable of contending films this year.
Marlee Matlin (CODA) Matlin received a Gotham nomination for her role as a deaf mother to a singing child in the heartwarming CODA. Plus, the film has shown true staying power, leading up to balloting. A nomination for her, as with Moreno, would be historic. She's still the youngest ever to win Best Actress and the only deaf actor ever nominated.
...but we've flipped back to our previous thinking that this slot is reserved for Ann Dowd (Mass). The film is reportedly going over very well at SAG screenings and if it receives a nomination for either Outstanding Cast or Supporting Actress (or both) expect a surge of attention again for the tiniest film in major Oscar contention this year. If SAG doesn't bite though, perhaps Moreno will make history or Negga will receive richly deserved attention?
Longer Shots.
Would you make a case for any of the other longshots like Jesse Buckley (The Lost Daughter) Gaby Hoffman (C'mon C'mon), Kathryn Hunter (Tragedy of Macbeth), Judi Dench (Belfast), Sally Hawkins (Spencer), Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley), etcetera?
Or maybe you're in the camp that thinks that all the attention being paid to Don't Look Up will result in yet another default nomination for Meryl Streep despite critics not loving her work for once?
Revised Oscar Charts
Reader Comments (57)
I think it'll be Negga. The UK factor will help as it did in 2016, there's a huge hook to her performance, it's Netflix so they're making it available, and she's incredible in it. Matlin barely registers in her movie, not a showcase part at all, Dowd's movie is depressing and stagy with a small distributor, and I honestly think the media cares more about Moreno's reprisal than most voters will, at least enough to vote for her.
FYC: Bree Elrod, RED ROCKET
I also say Negga, because of her first nomination. And if not Negga, then Moreno.
I second the love for Bree Elrod in RED ROCKET
I hope Ruth Negga gets her second nod.
I wouldn’t be upset if Ann Dowd finally got her due, but for a movie that’s such an ensemble piece, it doesn’t feel right for her to be singled out above the others.
Anyone other than Moreno.
Negga, Moreno, or Dowd for that last slot. And are we sure Ellis is safe? Aside from Will Smith I feel like King Richard is slipping a bit.
It's Ruth Negga and other four. I think Caitriona Balfe (Belfast) , like her co-star Jamie Dornan won't get there.
This is criminal.n Just because Anita DuBose is a good part, she automatically gets in. You admitted yourself that the buzz was before the screening. Snub her so one of these talented performers like Rita Moreno, Marlee Matlin or Ann Dowd could go through.
I'd pick Matlin and Dowd and take out Dubose. I might trade Moreno for Balfe but I can't have my cake and eat it too. I presume Moreno will get nominated for director?
Please Negga. She illudes us that that role is so easy to play
Dunst, Ellis, DeBose, Moreno and Negga.
I feel Balfe’s momentum is slipping.
Jennifer Hudson needs to copy Daniel Kaluuya/Keith Stansfield and slip into the Best Supporting Actress category for Aretha.
Exciting category this year. I hope it’s Negga - she has such a presence , but any of the others listed I think I would be happy with… although my hope earlier in the season was that Martha Plimpton would get in. I think if Negga gets in she’ll win.
Who do we think is winning?
If Ariana is getting up on stages and thanking Rita Moreno, then she’s in.
You should have told ME that I Feel Pretty goes at the end because I spent half of the movie in agony thinking Kushner cut it for being too sexist .
Keep Negga and give her an Oscar. Keep Kiki too. Choose any other of the girls except Meryl.
I’m gonna keep my hopes aflame for Ann Dowd AND Martha Plimpton getting in. I know it’s a long long long shot - but one can dream! Also praying for Simon Rex in Lead Actor :)
Ellis and Negga are currently my 2 lead contenders and are way out in front Negga has the edge for the win as of today.
I didn't like Bruised but enjoyed Adriana Lennix in it so she is my no 3.
Dunst is fourth,I had such high hopes for her to win but was slightly underwhelmed,the drinking came off as comedic.
5th I have Balfe who is solid and has a clip ready scene the one on the bus,definitely no to Dench.
Sorry I didn't like Matlin in CODA but loved Troy and Emilia.
I haven't see Mass but seems strange that Dowd would be picked out for an ensemble so small,
WSS is going to sweep the nominations and I expect Moreno to be swept up in it.
Negga's is the role actors should love as it's the most tricky,no Tessa in Actress is bothering me as they are both like an opposing duet in the film,Andre Holland is also great but not a word about him on here which I am surprised about.
MrRipley79 - Ann Dowd has an amazing scene at the end of the film that does explain why she is being picked out of the ensemble. Wish Jason Isaacs was getting traction.
I haven't seen the film so I couldn't say,none of the men are getting any love either.
Like the Passing ladies buzz overshadowing Andre Holland.
I feel as though Mass has been practically invisible this season. It was tough to see it in theaters, and despite being such a small release, it only just came out on PPV. If this is indicative of its campaign, Dowd won't get in (I haven't seen the performance yet... I'm frustrated I haven't had a chance to).
Moreno feels like she's the strongest contender here, by virtue of her strong film, nostalgia, and charismatic campaigning. Sorry, Negga fans.
I watched Mass yesterday and can't believe Martha Plimpton has not won or been nominated for any single individual award.
Actors should love that movie. I think if it does well with SAG, Dowd can definitely get in.
Negga is the person I most want to see nominated across all the Oscar categories, so I'm going to hold out hope that she'll edge out Moreno (which would be a neat story, but she already has an Oscar).
if the members watch Passing I can't imagine they won't nominate Negga, she's truly incredible in that film from the first scene onwards (so is Thompson). It would be shame if she didn't get the nomination.
I don't see Balfe making it in, she does good solid work in the film but Belfast feels like it is receding from the awards conversation at the moment.
My predictions :
1. deBose
2. Dunst
3. Ellis
4. Negga
5. Moreno
“ Moreno (which would be a neat story)…”
Exactly, a neat story. But is her performance actually *that* good?
Genuinely asking because I haven’t seen West Side Story yet, but haven’t heard anyone raving about her performance, only talking about the sentimental ~*story*~ of it all.
I watched Passing last night and I want Negga in more than I already did. She’s such a fantastic actress. A shame that Thompson and the film in general is underperforming with awards bodies.
My current: Dunst, Ellis, Balfe, DeBose, Moreno
@Phillip H.: No, Moreno is not *that* good in WWS. She's perfectly fine, but this she simply isn't doing anything extraordinary and doesn't deserve a nomination for the performance, any more than Meryl Streep deserves a nod for her broadly comic turn in Don't Look Up. If either one gets in over any one of the other genuinely deserving women out there it would be a real shame.
My gut says Moreno scores a SAG nom but that it's Dench at BAFTA and on Oscar noms morning.
Negga gave one of my favorite performances of the entire year--she's phenomenal, and I'm really puzzled by how many people have passed on watching this film. DeBose feels like a safe third lock at this point. I agree with those who think the terrible rollout for Mass will have an impact on the nominations. It was a frustrating wait for that film (like the December updates!) :)
Critics failed Ruth Negga. It’s so disappointing but I genuinely find the groundswell DeBose/Dunst pics as signs of love for the respective films and not of any real engagement with the performances. Negga in that complicated performance is exactly the kind of thing that needed critical support to surge. It’s really disappointing that it’s been so undervalued.
Pretty sure Dowd is in.
Hard to watch WSS and not want Rita Moreno in the mix. Steals the show (again). Burstyn couldn't make it last year and it was a weaker field, so I have doubts! Rita is more simpática but they're not sentimental. This is not the 80s.
I see The Power of the Dog as triangle so I don't think Dunst is supporting. Rooting hard for her anyway. She is in all the great scenes.
If it's not Ruth.....I agree with the four, but feel Marlee's role was a touch underwritten. Could be Mass. Why isn't ANYONE but me talking about Jayne Houdyshell? My God, I couldn't take my eyes off of her!!! The Humans should be getting more love.
And while I'm here, would someone please explain two things:
Why did Gaga have a Russian accent and why isn't it counting against her? And I love her. But why?
And if 50% of critics and public hate Don't Look Up, why does it continue to appear on lists?
Thank you. I've screened 50+ films☮️
Stop the Matlin nonsense
Critics mostly hate it, but not necessarily the public. My social media feeds are full of people loving the movie and pissed off at the critics who they feel are unfairly trashing it. Now I'm looking forward to seeing it.
Metacritic Users 6.0, RT Audience 77%, IMDb 7.3
The Merediz erasure is hard to stomach.
My NGNG prediction right now is Jessie Buckley, but I haven’t ruled out Meryl Streep.
Is Ruth Negga campaigning?? I’ve only seen Tessa Thompson really doing so.
Negga has been on the campaign trail (I saw her and Thompson together in LA) but a) COVID, b) she’s prepping to play Lady Macbeth on Broadway opposite Daniel Craig in March. And c) there’s that upcoming Josephine Baker miniseries she’ll be exec producing and starring in.
There's a persistent rumor in Hollywood that Moreno, to put it charitably, "doesn't suffer fools gladly". This has arguably made her unpopular with awards voters, since, as we know, many of them are fools who may have worked with her in the past. It shocked many people outside of Hollywood that she didn't get a single nod for her bravura turn in ONE DAY AT A TIME, and with less strong competition than she faces with Oscar. So... I expect to see her name not read out on nomination morning.
@ Dan H.
That was diplomatic but correct lol. I wouldn’t be surprised by either outcome on nomination morning.
@Stan: I caught Houdyshell in The Humans last night and I love that the film gave her two phenomenal scenes where the camera held its focus entirely on her and only her. I agree that it's a pity that the film is playing too small to be really considered. There's still National Society of Film Criitics...!
RUTH NEGGA should have been a definite nominee and a clear rival for the win.
1. Dunst
2. Negga
3. Ellis
4. Balfe
5. Debose
Just because Anita is a great role, doesn’t mean that every time she pops up, she can win.
It’s downright stupid of them if they think there is only ONE good role for Latinas that can win an Oscar.
I'm surprised Moreno is even a consideration for nomination having watched WSS and thinking to myself she's just a legend who did nothing extraordinary like Meryl Streep in Don't look up - not bad but CERTAINLY not top 5 either. Negga, on the other hand, is simply exquisite and deserves the nod.
@NAthaniel. Your dislike for Streep is really showing here.
Dubose is an easy nomination. Not only is her part buzzed but you're crazy if you don't think she's fantastic in the film. Easy nod. I'd say same for Balfe, tho hers is more sublte. But those two performances are worth all their hype. Anyone snubbing Dubose for Moreno is...well, Happy New Year.
I could see King Richard starting to fall flat. I hear no buzz. It's the kind of thing that comes in just disappoint the party.
Not sure how her name kept coming up Dubose. DeBose****
Negga, Dunst, Hawkins, Dowd, Streep.
Just showing some love for Kathryn Hunter for The Tragedy of MacbethDon't Look Up.
Just showing some love for Kathryn Hunter for The Tragedy of Macbeth.
And Ruth Negga is incandescent in a truly wonderful film that still haunts me several weeks after I saw it.
Cate Blanchett stood out for me in Don't Look Up.
Dream would be:
Ann Dowd
Martha plimpton
Kathryn hunter
Cate Blanchett - nightmare alley
Kirsten dunst
Because how cool it would be to see a category be THIS shook up come Oscar nomination morning