All Oscar charts have been updated. But first, look how starry the shorts are!
Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 11:46PM by Nathaniel R
After the shortlist announcement we had to cram in some quick research on the shorts categories. Live action short might prove rather starry because one of the ten stars Tilda Swinton (The Human Voice) and another stars Oscar Isaac and Alia Shawkat (The Letter Room). Most of the filmmakers behind this years 30 finalist shorts (across the 3 categories) would be receiving their first nominations but there are a few previous Oscar players in the mix too: Skye Fitzgerald (Hunger Ward, doc short), Pedro Almodovar (The Human Voice, live action short), Max Lang (Snail and the Whale, animated short)
We'll discuss each category in its own post as we approach the Academy's nomination ballot week (which is still almost a month away if you can believe it!) but in the meantime all the charts are freshly updated...
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP' ACTRESS | SUPP' ACTOR |
SCREENPLAYS | VISUAL | SOUND |
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Reader Comments (36)
Probably I'm gonna receive a big BOO but I would prefer less posts of Oscar predictions and more talking about shorts films and where to watch it.
Awards are a good parameter to know what to watch (well...kinda) but is more satisfying just to see a film no matter why or where was made and let it be yourself surprised for gems that are not so popular.
I differ on one spot each on the acting categories. I think Lindo, Murray, Adams, Zengel make it. And no actors from Minari do (I think they’re both in sixth place despite the general love).
And I think The Father misses the Best Pic lineup.
(just noting we agree on Lindo already)
Good to see Glenn seems to be locked in BSA category.
Do you think AMPAS will nominate two singer performance ( Davis and Day ) in one year?
Jodie Foster's Golden Globe nomination is missing
@ Geri
If they did in 1969 (all four acting categories), 1973 (two Best Actress nominees) and 2018 (two Best Actor nominees, one Best Actress nominee), why wouldn't they now?
Fantastic to consider that half the acting nominees will be POC. Also there’s a chance that 60% of the directing nominees will be either women or POC (and 40% both!) - and it could easily be more if Zhao, Lee, Fennel, King and Chung all get it.
Rampant category fraud and the strange extended eligibility period notwithstanding, this year’s Academy Awards have the chance to be an incredibly positive and historic step in the right direction.
Supporting Actress is at this point Close vs. Bakalova.
Colman recently won - haven't seen the film but heard that her role is actually co-shared with other actress? that would hurt her.
Seyfried is the low key performance that they may just simply ignore and would secure her a win the next time she's nominated
Zengel is too young and News of the World isn't The Piano
Young, clearly the nomination IS her reward.
Fishback same, If she was in a BP frontrunner - N'yongo - I would think she has a legitimate shot, but even the nom is iffy.
Burstyn... she's already an Oscar winner, I could see going for her, but she's in direct competiion with Close, so basically if both are nominated, neither wins.
that leaves us with Bakalova and Close.
Close is insanely overdue, but given how despised her film is, there are plenty of voters who would prefer to see her win an Honorary Award than give it to her to an openly considered mediocre film and a performance that nobody ranks among her best.
Then we have Bakalova, who basically checks all the Supporting Actress winner points, but one.
Young but not too young.
"It" girl.
Supporting but almost co-lead.
Crucial to the whole story to make sense.
Steals every single scene she is in. From one of the biggest comedians at work!
Huge precursor love, and probably her reaction video to the Globe nomination may tick some hearts in the AMPAS voters: she is genuinely overwhelmed and she really DOESN'T think she has a shot of winning. To see her walk on the stage could bring us another Anna Paquin moment, and that's difficult to resist.
Her costar is almost the frontrunner to win the OTHER supporting award, so it would be easily to erase the temptation of having "father and daughter" posing together with their Oscars.
Bakalova's vindication of Eastern European actors and actresses gave it a bigger scope to her campaign...
... that is lead by Sacha Baron Cohen himself.
... not to mention the kick in the balls to Trump's administration as she even introduced herself in the White House while shooting this film.
All of this, versus the bias against comedy. But then, My Cousin Vinny was a mediocre film and Tomei won.
So if I had to bet all my money, I would split it between Bakalova and Close.
On the shorts. Loved 2 animated ones... I hope "Out" wins it. I just insanely love it. But I agree tat probably "If anything happens I love you" will win it, due to its more artistic approach to its theme... I loved it as well, but I thought "Out" was less evident, and deeper, and more innovative. It is a great creative decision to have chosen a dog as the pet, it really makes the story way more powerful and evident on its multiple meanings.
I'd like to see Almodovar win for the third time, and his 2nd personal Oscar, but I don't think it will happen... I think that the voters would rather try to push up the career of someone starting and leave his next reward to either an Honorary Award, or another Screenplay or even a Director award in the future, specially if he finally makes a film in english.
Thanks for this update !!!
I'm actually starting to like this year a lot - some really interesting picks if it stays like this ... and a great opportunity to honour extraordinary talent and newcomers.
Still haven't seen some of the big contenders and the ones I've seen didn't really rock my boat to much if I'm honest - Mank, Pieces, Ma Rainey, Tenet, Chicago 7, HillBilly, 5DaBlood, Life Ahead ... had all some amazing aspects but didn't convince me as a whole - and they are (besides Mank where I see the genius in all departments - it just didn't connect too me) nearly rather
So I'm especially anticipating Father, Promising YW, Minari & Nomadland - for some emotional impact & fresh perspective .... :-) ... I literally need one or two movies a year that will stay with me ...
Also have to say as a lifetime Glenn Close fan, the last thing I want is for her to win this year. Better for her to leave this life Oscar-less than to deprive someone else of a deserved win because voters want to award yet another “make-up award”.
The knock on effect of this and the “career award” is why the “make-up” phenomenon keeps happening and Oscar history is so full of middling performances by great actors being rewarded and towering work being passed over as a result.
How Jared Leto is 'EXTREME LONG SHOT' after nominations from Globes and SAG? :)
I'd say that he's definitely a possibility now.
Love that you're putting WELCOME TO CHECHNYA in the visual effects line-up. I think I would, too. In the same way that you can just tell there's support by their inclusion in the long-list like KUBO or HONEYLAND in 2019, you know? I think if they do the demo reels they could have a really impressive one that amplifies their cause and really give the branch the idea that they're doing something bigger than just explosions and fantasy worlds. Maybe. I hope so.
OK, sorry, he's in two places (and in 'possibility' line he has Turman's photo so... :) ).
Almodóvar withdraw himself from the Goya's competition because he didn't want to hog the limelight. I think he was right and he should have done the same with the Oscar.
César -- every time i post about shorts (i actually wanted to do a weekly column!) it's crickets up in here sadly.
Someone -- thanks for the catch. It's fixed.
I think your Pfeiffer inpfatuation is clouding your vision. I mean, she definitely has a shot, but I don't think there's enough passion for her performance, the movie, or even her at this point. I do hope she'll be nominated again soon (I think she will), but she's definitely further down the list.
I could really see Sophia Loren making it into the fifth spot. The song has been doing well which means people are paying attention to some degree (the doc too), and she's a legend--they might feel this could be the last time to reward her.
Current Best Actress Rankings:
1-Frances McDormand
2-Viola Davis
3-Carey Mulligan (winner)
4-Vanessa Kirby (potential snub)
5-Andra Day
-
6-Sophia Loren
7-Zendaya
8-Amy Adams
9-Michelle Pfeiffer
10-Sidney Flanigan
Zendaya had more of a shot before precursors, but could still sneak in. Amy Adams has risen heavily--I'm all for a Glenn win, but not here for nominating Amy for this if it's not her winning role (it's not).
Fifth slot in supporting actor is definitely a toss-up between Raci, Murray, Leto, and Strathairn.
Wouldn't mind Murray, but obviously hoping it's Raci, and absolutely not Leto.
I am going to be harsh... I liked a lot Raci's performance but... why exactly is it, "Oscar-worthy"? I just don't get it. Because of the sign language? It's not a really difficult role to pull off, otherwise, and featuring a too obvious Oscar clip.
Sound of Metal is a good film, but I only found Ahmed and the Sound worth of a nomination and possible win.
@NATHANIEL R
When you do the post about the live action shorts, would mind to put some trivia there about the biggest nominees in that category? I always thought who could be them and never found anything online.
By now, thank you very much!
P.s.: Elvira Lind (The Letter Room) is Oscar Isaac's real wife.
Re: Best Supporting Actress
If it’s a “regular” ceremony, Close wins; if virtual, someone else (Bakalova if nominated).
Kate Winslet is clearly campaigning as much as she can (2 round tables this week). If BAFTA nominate her, she might find a way back in,
Sometimes Kate Winslet can be her own worst enemy when being interviewed she tries so hard to be down to earth honest and humble that she ends up rambling and it's not a good look.
If Close has to win so Bakalova doesn't I am ok with that,why is Seyfried so doubted just 'cos of the SAG snub.
It will be harder for Bill Murray to make it as he's likely to be his films sole nomination but his film plays well at home.
Admas is feintely in it for the 5th slot,passion votes is where it matters.
If it’s a “regular” ceremony, Close wins; if virtual, someone else (Bakalova if nominated)
I'm continually bemused by your low placement of Aaron Sorkin in Best Director. (You may be right, but I also sense a little bit of bias there!)
My guess is the SAG wasn't a fluke and Amy Adams gets in. The Academy seems to have a cultural conservative streak (e.g., The Blind Side, Green Book) that sneaks up on people and makes for surprise nominations and wins. Academy members might be more willing than buy what Hillbilly Elegy is selling than critics, especially in tandem with nominating Nomadland.
It would be thrilling to see Frances McDormand win a third Oscar as a producer on Nomadland.
At this point I am feeling that the final result will be...
Picture: Nomadland
Director: Zhao, Nomadland
Actor: Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Actress: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Supporting Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Supporting Actress: Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (but huge chance for Bakalova)
Original Screenplay: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland
Cinematography: Nomadland
Production Design: Mank
Costume Design: Mank
Film Editing: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sound: Sound of Metal
Score: Soul
Song: "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
Visual Effects: Tenet
Make up: Hillbilly Elegy (performance + make up wins combo)
Animated: Soul
Documentary: Crip Camp - so they can give the Obamas one Oscar. Collective should win it, in a heartbeat.
International: Another Round, Denmark
Animated Short: If anything happens, I love you (loved it, but "Out" is my pick. I'm tempted to say it is the best short film I've ever seen!)
Live Action Short: The Human Voice - can they resist Almodovar?
Documentary Short: clueless but I think A love song for Latasha sounds on par with this year's soul
Speaking of the shorts...
I can't think of another recent example of this even happening, but I feel like an A-List director like Pedro Almodovar shouldn't be allowed to be eligible in the category (or should at least take himself out of consideration). Yes, technically if he made the best short film of the year he should be allowed to compete, but it kind of goes against the spirit of that particular award.
Is the makeup for Hillbilly Elegy actually considered good? It's the one thing I think distracts most from Close's performance. Not as distracting as what Bakalova had to do in the ballroom scene though.
Maybe try a different writer for the shorts? See if that spikes interest in the feature. Such an array of diverse talents at your command.
Marsha Mason you may be right!
So... News of the World opened on Netflix and... well, great acting by Hanks and Zengel, but I hardly consider them Oscar worthy, specially with so much competition in their cathegories... and the only things I can see worthy of a nom - not win - are Cinematography, Score and probably Sound and Visual Effects. Adapted Screenplay, maybe? Don't get me wrong, it is a very good, just not great film.
César -- lol I'm not the problem. (why y'all so mean to me lately?) Shorts have historically been a matter of low interest... which is why the academy keeps threatening to get rid of the categories on the broadcast and why they bareely get any media coverage.
Jesus -- what country are you in? Netflix definitely doesn't have that movie here.
Jack -- hmmm. I dont share that particular view though i get where you're coming from. In fact I think it would be cool if more A list directors experimented with the form on occassion. I know that i'm currently predicting it but i wouldn't be at all surprised if enough voters share that view (that it should be for emerging filmmakers only) to keep him out of the nominee pool.
Sashua -- good idea!
"Feeling through" will give a strong competition to Pedro, Oscar and the groundhog day of the "Two distant strangers". Omeleto has shared the full FT movie here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1CqzntEZZ8
I also have to add, that "Bittu" started off weird, like a kids' movie... but OMG how it ended - what a surprise! Albanian short about a guy fighting for money (and life) in "The Van" that drives around during the time 2 guys in it kick each others asses, had also a twist in the end... Seems pretty strong category this year!
@jesus ... agreed ! Just watched it last night with anticipation ... and do not see any acting nods at all (especially after Hanks has been ignored for so many fine performances lately) & Zengel was a revelation in Systemcrasher but here I think Greengrass did not use the potential he had in front of him... "nice movie" - wonderful to follow Hanks - but forgettable.