Who Will Be The Oscar Acting Surprises & Snubs?

 by Christopher James

Does Golden Globe + SAG + Critics Choice automatically equal Oscar?It’s been a busy week of precursors. With the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards all announced, we have a lot more clarity on the acting categories in the Oscar race. How accurate are these precursors when it comes to predicting Oscar nominees? Let’s dive into the stats and see if this can help us solve who will be our Oscar nominated actors.

For the purposes of analysis, we looked back from 2003 - 2019, as 2003 was the first year the Critics Choice awards had five nominees. Now they have expanded to eight nominees in some categories, but that’s another rant for another time...

How Do Oscar Nominees Usually Perform At The Precursors?

It’s no surprise that a majority of Oscar nominees show up at all three of the major precursors. Roughly 13 of the 20 eventual Oscar nominees will have shown up at SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The remaining seven Oscar nominees will have at least one key miss. While precursors still often guide who these seven nominees will be, there will usually be one nominee who showed up nowhere in the precursors. We will talk later about who that could be this year.

Key: CC = Critics Choice; GG D = Golden Globes Drama; GG C = Golden Globes Comedy; GG = Golden Globes (Supporting)

If you pull off a triple threat at these three precursors, you’re not in the clear… but you’re pretty close. Those actors who show up everywhere will end up with an Oscar nomination 91% of the time. However, that still means that snubs of these performances happen often. This year, 14 performances showed up at all three major precursors. That means 1-2 performers will be the shocking recipient of an Oscar snub. Since our previous table illustrates that roughly 13 nominees will have all three precursors, we can assume that only 1 performer will be the recipient of a shocking snub. We will take a look at who that might be later in the article. 

In terms of filling out the remaining six of the seven acting slots, let’s look at which precursors matter most. Four of those six slots will come from performances that show up at two of the three precursors. Those who end up at the SAGs are most likely to repeat, particularly if they have a Critics Choice or Golden Globe (supporting) nomination. The combination of a Golden Globes supporting nomination and Critics Choice nomination can also be promising. The lead acting nominations at the Golden Globes aren’t often great predictors, since there are ten nominees vying for five slots.

What Precursor Is Most Predictive Of Oscar?

Correlation by Precursor:

• SAG: 0.59

• Critics Choice: 0.50

• Golden Globes: 0.10

We looked at the acting nominees for each of these precursors from 2003-2019 and compared them to the corresponding Oscar nominations. The Critics Choice only started doing five-wide nominee fields in 2003, which was why we started there. The correlation coefficient is a number between -1 and 1. The closer a number is to 1 suggests a positive correlation (ex: a nomination at SAG correlates strongly to an Oscar nomination). Conversely, the closer a number is to -1 demonstrates a negative correlation (ex: a nomination at Golden Globes means one would likely not be nominated for an Oscar nomination). When a number is close to 0, it means there is low correlation (ex: a Golden Globes nomination gives zero indication whether an actor will get an Oscar nomination).

As one can see, SAG has the strongest correlation to an Oscar nomination, with Critic’s Choice close behind. However, this trend has changed over the seventeen years we observed. As you can see by the trended graph above, the SAGs have become less predictive year after year, while the Golden Globes have become more predictive. In fact, if one looks specifically at the polynomial trendline for each precursor, the Critics Choice became the most predictive from 2018-2019. Yes, only SAG has voting overlap with the Acting branch of the Academy. However, these other precursors may hold more of a key to Oscar nominations in recent history. This could also be a factor of their expanding number of nominees. Likewise, the Critics Choice continues to increase the number of nominees each year (this year Best Actor has 8 nominees), which helps make it more “predictive.”

Who Will Be The Big Snub?

We are still not over Jennifer Lopez missing an Oscar nomination for "Hustlers" after a stellar precursor track record.Actors With All Three Precursor Nominations Snubbed at the Oscars

1. Paul Giamatti - Sideways (2004)

2. Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man (2005)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed (2006)

4. Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart (2007)

5. Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl (2007)

6. Mila Kunis - Black Swan (2010)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar (2011)

8. Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

9. John Hawkes - The Sessions (2012)

10. Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone (2012)

11. Daniel Bruhl - Rush (2013)

12. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks (2013)

13. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips (2013)

14. Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler (2014)

15. Jennifer Aniston - Cake (2014)

16. Helen MIrren - Trumbo (2015)

17. Michael Shannon - 99 Homes (2015)

18. Amy Adams - Arrival (2016)

19. Hong Chau - Downsizing (2017)

20. James Franco - The Disaster Artist (2017)

21. Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns (2018)

22. Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy (2018)

23. Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers (2019)

We’ve determined that there will be 1-2 big snubs this year, though most likely just one. When we look at the list of actors snubbed in the past, a few trends jump out. Of the 23 actors mentioned above, 18 of them were in movies that did not show up in Best Picture and 10 of them were in movies that had zero Oscar nominations. That leaves five performances that were snubbed despite being in a Best Picture nominee (highlighted above). Category confusion likely caused Leonardo DiCaprio’s snub for The Departed (also he was nominated for Blood Diamond that year). The remaining four performers were from well-known actors who people might have felt were “safe.” There’s no substitute for passion, that’s how you break into any Oscar category.

Maria Bakalova has earned nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards for "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm."

So Who Has All Three Precursors This Year?

• Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

• Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

• Anthony Hopkins - The Father

• Gary Oldman - Mank

----

• Frances McDormand - Nomadland

• Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

• Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

• Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

----

• Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami

• Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

----

• Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 

• Olivia Colman - The Father

• Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Looking at the fourteen performances above, the few films not in the Best Picture conversation are Pieces of a Woman (Kirby), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Bakalova) and Hillbilly Elegy (Close). There’s also the possibility that The Father (Hopkins, Colman), Sound of Metal (Ahmed) and Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya) won’t show up in Best Picture. Of those performances, none of them fall into “category confusion” (though some would be considered category fraud). In terms of the “passion factor,” Vanessa Kirby appears to have the lowest amount of passionate fans. Broadening out to likely Best Picture nominees, Gary Oldman still feels like he commands less passion than the other contenders in the category. Mank had a starry ensemble, but missed at SAG in the ensemble category and in Supporting Actress for Amanda Seyfried. Perhaps support is lower than anticipated for that title across the board.

My Prediction for Snub: Gary Oldman - Mank

Who Will Be The Surprise Nomination?

Many were (happily) shocked when Marina de Tavira pulled out a surprise Oscar nomination for "Roma" in 2018.Actors Who Were Oscar Nominated With No Precursor Support

1. Djimon Hounsou - In America (2003)

2. Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog (2003)

3. Alan Alda - The Aviator (2004)

4. Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby (2004)

5. William Hurt - A History of Violence (2005)

6. Laura Linney - The Savages (2007)

7. Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley of Elah (2007)

8. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road (2008)

9. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart (2009)

10. Javier Bardem - Biutiful (2010)

11. Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)

12. Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

13. Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

14. Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)

15. Bradley Cooper - American Sniper (2014)

16. Laura Dern - Wild (2014)

17. Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread (2017)

18. Marina de Tavira - Roma (2018)

Looking at the “out-of-nowhere” nominees from the past, it becomes clear that Oscar coattails are real. Of the 18 performances listed above, 14 came from movies with other key nominations, including 7 from Best Picture nominees. This means that voters are catching up on movies they know they “have to see” and if they like it well enough, they’ll nominate it everywhere. This is why momentum is critical.

Also, these surprise nominees are more likely to happen in Supporting, rather than Lead. Two-thirds of the mentioned performances were in Supporting, while six were in lead. Of those six leading actors, five were famous actors/previous Oscar nominees and the sixth was Gary Oldman, who was considered long overdue. Supporting nominations can happen from actors who are less well known, like Michael Shannon or Marina de Tavira. 

Frances McDormand has been earning awards for "Nomadland." Could she possibly bring David Strathairn with her?

Supporting Performances in Films Being Seen by Oscar voters:

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Bo Burnham - Promising Young Woman

• Lily Collins - Mank

• Olivia Cooke - Sound of Metal

• Colman Domingo - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

• Dominique Fishback - Judas and the Black Messiah

• Frank Langella - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Yeri Han - Minari

• Jonathan Majors - Da 5 Bloods

• Linda May - Nomadland

• Will Patton - Minari

• Eddie Redmayne - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Mark Rylance - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• David Strathairn - Nomadland

• Jeremy Strong - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Swankie - Nomadland

• Glynn Turman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Normally, you have to be a universal stand-out in the ensemble to pull off this surprise. Thus, I don’t think it will be any of The Trial of Chicago 7 or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom men. Instead, David Strathairn or Bo Burnham feel most likely of this group of longshots. Olivia Cooke is definitely also in the running, but only if Paul Raci is also getting in for Supporting Actor, showing that there is tremendous love for Sound of Metal.

Will Sophia Loren be able to return to the Oscars nearly sixty years after she won for "Two Women."

Lead Performances from Oscar Favorites

• George Clooney - The Midnight Sky

• Colin Firth - Supernova

• Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead

• Meryl Streep - The Prom, Let Them All Talk

• Kate Winslet - Ammonite

If Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet can’t get the Golden Globes attention, they’re done. The only person on this list that still stands a chance is Sophia Loren. She’s a legendary Oscar winner who has also been a memorable personality on the telecasts (the side-eye at Jayne Mansfield, yelling “Roberto” when Benigni won, introducing Meryl Streep for Doubt). Not only that, the Netflix campaign has been pushing her hard, including producing the What Would Sophia Loren Do short. 

My Prediction for the Surprise: Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead

Who do you expect to be the big surprises and big snubs at the Oscars? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[Jamie]

Excellent and fascinating article!!
I would like to point out that Streep was Oscar nominated for her 7th nomination for Ironweed with no precursor love.

[Cash]

I still worry for Carey Mulligan, just because Promising Young Woman is a movie that isn't in Oscar's usual wheelhouse. I keep worrying she's going to get Jennifer Lopezed.

[eurocheese]

I have always thought Bakalova wasn't really in their realm. We'll find out soon enough, but that wouldn't surprise me at all.

I honestly don't expect any total surprises, as Critics Choice picked up a lot of the majors missed by SAG/GG. I have to say, though - Supporting Actress completely confuses me this year.

[NathanielB]

I am also predicting Loren to be a surprise inclusion. Vets like Bates often "sneak" into fields that are less solidified, so I also think Burstyn and Strathairn can also make it in, helped by coattails. But I really doubt Oldman will miss out for Mank, as an advantage to fewer strong Best Picture contenders having strong Best Actor contenders is that Oldman can be buoyed with even B level support for Mank.

[Working stiff]

But is The Life Ahead really an "Oscar favorite"?

[Erick Loggia]

Out: Maria Bakalova
In : Ellen Burstyn

[dtsf]

i expect Vanessa Kirby (lead) and Maria Bakalova (supporting) to be the "surprise" snubs. Kirby because I think the film will prove a tough watch for the (still predominantly older/male) Oscar voters, and Bakalova because, despite the precursor love, I just can't see them viewing hers as a suitable, traditional Oscar performance. (For the record, I love both.)

I don't see any of the four listed lead actors getting snubbed, but believe Tom Hanks will be the surprise inclusion: It's just too suitable and comforting-in-these-troubled-times a performance for them to ignore it. And I do think Raci will join the supporting actors (which would be excellent), and would not be surprised if Cohen gets dropped (because much as I love him in Borat, it's not that great a role or performance, and will likely face intrafilm competition from Rylance and maybe Langella).

[Jesus Alonso]

I think Bakalova will always be in danger, but she's the BAFTA frontrunner - thanks to Sacha Baron Cohen's power in the UK, and he is campaigning for her way more than he is for himself or for his film - and she's likely to arrive to Oscar night - if nominated - with a Golden Globe win and a BAFTA win... and nominations at least at SAG and Critics Choice (may her win there, as well?)... it's the atypical case of unsecured nomination but high chances of winning, if nominated.

Plus, have you seen her reaction video to the Globe nomination? Huge call back to Anna Paquin's reaction to winning her Oscar, glimpses of genuine joy. There's obvious passion for this performance, almost everywhere... only the fact it is so wildly, openly comedic is stopping it from being a clean sweep of precursors. It really stands out from competition - as Tomei back when she won for My Cousin Vinny.

I am 50% about her Oscar nomination, but depending on who she is against, if nominated... she has a legitimate shot at winning it.

[Jesus Alonso]

Separate post for vindicating a nomination for Sofia Loren. She was AMAZING in that film. Would love to see her win a second (isn't it kind of a travesty that she only has one in competition? I remember that the closest she had been for a second was in 1994 with her great performance opposite Mastroianni in Pret a porter!

[Joe G]

The social scientist in me loves this article!

David Strathairn really feels like someone who will get swept into the lovefest for his film. He's also worked with everyone and is a former nominee, so it's easy to see him getting a welcome back of sorts.

I would not be surprised to see Gary Oldman dropped. Is there passion for that film?

I also think Vanessa Kirby is safe. She feels far more like a Melissa McCarthy this season. However, she does strong, challenging work and differs considerably from other films we've seen her in. It also helps that she has been boosting her profile/profitability in action franchises post-crown.

Unless there's a nomination for makeup, Glenn Close is pretty much the only serious nom for her film. I think that could hurt her a lot. Especially with the rise of Minari.

[Michael C.]

If there's a left field nomination my gut says it'll be Lakeith Stanfield. It hits HBO this Friday which means Judas is well poised to dominate the conversation in the lead up to voting.

[Ryan]

Great piece!
Best Actor seems the most set.
Best Actress and Supp. Actor feel like they're down to that last tricky '5th slot'
Supp. Actress is the most open/shaky with possibilities I'd say. And I agree Bakalova, though worthy, is far from a sure thing given the film/performance is not in their general wheelhouse. Any combination of Bakalova/Zengel/Close/Burstyn seem possible at the moment for the last two slots.

[Shmeebs]

The Academy has shown they can be snobby (look no further than Lopez last year), so I won't believe a Bakalova nomination until I see it. Agreed though that she has a good chance of winning if nominated.

I think Gary Oldman is vulnerable too, a la Tom Hanks in Captain Philips. Strong film, beloved actor, but gets crowded out by passion votes (Yeun, Lindo) in this case.

[Peggy Sue]

I don't do math.

[Shmeebs]

Also, Bakalova DOES stand to lose some votes due to category confusion. Going lead at the Globes raises her profile but could cost her some votes and make the difference, especially if she's on the bubble.

It worked for Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago, but Hugh Grant suffered in 2016 for Florence Foster Jenkins (Globe lead, SAG and BAFTA supporting, Oscar snub).

[Antônio]

I think Sacha Baron Cohen will be snubbed and replaced by any other from Chicago 7 or maybe a surprise nom for Charles Dance in Mank. I’m okay with Sophia Loren getting in, she’s really good in The Life Ahead, but Zendaya seems a perfect “out of nowhere surprise bet” to justify the extended season. I’m not crazy about Paul Raci like everybody, but a nomination for Olivia Cooke would be lovely.

[jules]

Nomadland is my favorite film of 2020, but I don't think Strathairn would make my line-up. I'd be surprised if he were nominated.

I haven't seen Judas and the Black Messiah, but there is real buzz surrounding Dominique Fishback and the film is being released at the right time. I think she's a likely surprise nomination.

[rdf]

Sophia Loren was anything but AMAZING in the movie. She simply walked through it!!!!

AMAZING was the little boy in the movie!!!

[markgordonuk]

After now seeing Borat 2 I can't see them going for it at all.

I think SOM will be more than well regarded and a surprise Picture,Director and maybe Supporting Actress nominations.

I'm starting to think Yuen will be snubbed and his co stars.

I am beginning to feel a surprise Amy Adams nomination.

[Dan Humphrey]

My prediction for a snub: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. It's comedy. It's partially improvised. It's vulgar. Finally, I think she's over rated and at some point people will begin to agree with me on that. :)

I agree that Sophia Loren is the safe bet for a surprise nomination. They like her so much they gave her an honorary Oscar even though she had a rare competitive win in a film even in English.

[Dan Humphrey]

^ NOT even in English ^

[Jesus Alonso]

@ Dan

Tutar's speech to the Republican women, was the moment I was sure that she was going to be an Awards player. That was amazing...

I agree that the boy in The Life Ahead is fantastic... but Loren gives a calm, masterful performance with the wisdom that decades of career working with some of the best directors in movie history, give.

[Bushwick]

I, too, am banking on Maria Bakalova being the snub. If she is nominated, however, it’ll be the funnest and most interesting Oscar nomination in decades.

As far as who’s sneaking in? I don’t try to guess - it’s more fun that way!

[Duncan]

Loved this article Chris, this is just the sorta nerdy stats deep dive I adore. I think I'm echoing a few people here when I say Maria Bakalova feels the most vulnerable to me (seems like Franco in Disaster Artist, where ultimately the Oscars will be too stuffy to commit), with Kirby as a secondary lack-of-passion choice.

For people that could get in without any precursors, Strathairn (or even Swankie) could get some coattails votes, or someone could get revived by a BAFTA nom (thinking Rylance or Winslet) and get in with only that.

[Jose Luis]

Maria Bakalova and Delroy Lindo out. Not Oscar calibre.

[forever1267]

It's going to look really bad on the Academy's part if Supporting Actress misses having an Asian for , what, the 4th or 5th time. Downsizing, The Farewell, Parasite, Crazy Rich Asians.

[EricB]

Maria Bakalova's acting in BSF is astonishing...a complete high-wire act combo of force, technique, control, and abandon. Nobody in the supporting actress race is doing anything nearly as interesting. Ten years ago, there's no way she would have been nominated. But I truly do believe she's be holding that Oscar come April.

[DAVID]

Surprise nomination:

ACTRESS:
Diane Lane, LET HIM GO

[Ed]

THE SURPRISE SNUBS: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman" + Glenn Close, "Hillbilly Elegy"

THE SURPRISE NOMINATION: Sophia Loren, "La vita davanti a sè"

THE NOT-SO-SURPRISING NOMINATION (1 precursor only): Jodie Foster, "The Mauritanian"

[Paranoid Android]

Much as I dislike the possibility, I feel like Amy Adams is getting that fifth slot in Actress. Reminds me a bit of Jennifer Lawrence in Joy -- an actress they've nominated many times before, in a critically-unloved role but within the actor's wheelhouse. It helps that Glenn Close has kept the movie in the conversation and the other possibilities have various demerits (foreign, not seen enough) that keep Adams a hair ahead.

[Kris]

Suprise... Maybe early favourite Carrie Coon for a suprise nom for The Nest?
Snub..., Dare I predict Frances? No.

[Harry]

To secure a nomination on the preferential ballot means you have to be the favorite for as many voters as possible. Looking at the snubs list is clear that most were in either too indie and unseen films or not the most praised performance from their movie, so not much passion to push them to the top position on voter's list.

Judging by this I see Bakalova to actually be safe for a nomination as I suspect enough voters will put her first. Same with Close, her movie is more polarizing than hated.
To me the most vulnerable to score the nomination are Seynfried and Zengel. Jodie Foster and Dominique Fishback might get more number 1 votes.

Loren getting in Lead would not be surprising but I don't think she's the likeliest. If there's a surprise there and Kirby is snubbed, then I predict Adams or Day to replace her.
Loren is an interesting case as one could argue she's borderline supporting and, should she have been campaigned as such, she would've probably performed better in the race.

For that 5th Best Actor spot, if they really like Minari they'll nominate Steven Yeun. But I still predict Delroy Lindo and he would fit the nominee without GG/SAG mentions.

Don't think Leto gets in Supporting. I predict Murray for the last spot.

[Amy Camus]

I hope Tahar Rahim can ride a last-minute wave of passion to the fifth slot. I haven't seen The Mauritanian, of course, but it sounds like the kind of movie that can arouse the sort of enthusiasm that propels candidates to the #1 slot on ballots.

[moviefilm]

Harry: Are the acting categories voted by preferential ballots? They use the system only in the best picture category, as long as I know...

[NATHANIEL R]

Christopher this is a great article. it's made me rethink a lot of races. The fifth spots are genuinely confusing in a few places. I can't help but think it's OLDMAN getting the snub but then i have to check myself because that also feels like wishful thinking. As for Sophia. That 5th slot in Best Actress is still wide open so it could be Loren, Day, Zendaya, Adams, or Pfeiffer... and if you do a few mental gymnastics all of them feel possible.

[markgordonuk]

I didn't find Bakalova the least bit funny and the whole films comedy felt forced,the curtain came down and everyone has seen behind it.

[Dl]

Gary Oldman is getting the nomination. He has the heat of his previous win and stars in what will probably be the most nominated film this year, he's secure. After all, Best Actor is not the category that will let go of "The Star in The Best Picture Contender" trope. Look at Dicaprio in OUATIH. The whole category was incredibly competitive and he wasn't denied a nomination in every awards show, Oscar included.

[Harry]

^^^Rule 6.1:
A Reminder List including up to ten eligible actresses and up to ten eligible actors for each eligible motion picture shall be made available along with nominations ballots to all active members of the Actors Branch, who shall vote in the order of their preference for not more than five acting achievements in each category.
6.2. The five acting achievements in each category receiving the highest number of votes shall become the nominations for final voting for the Acting awards.
(Rules)

So is preferential. Best Picture has further rules to break it down plus the fact that all the Academy votes for it while the others are voted only by their respective branches.

[Lucky]

DI - What about De Niro in The Irishman? or Hanks in Captain Phillips? It can happen (and I don't think someone like Lakeith Stanfield would be shocking in retrospect).

I'd love to see Oscar throw some curveballs, it'd be a nice response to every other organization trying to predict it.

[Working stiff]

I'm calling it now ;-)

Best Actress: Davis, Day, Kirby, McDormand, Mulligan

(Who am I kidding?)

DayAdams, Davis, Kirby, McDormand, Mulligan

(AMPAS loves to nominate Adams almost as much as HFPA & SAG do...even if they don't always agree on which performance to nominate.)

[cal roth]

Jesus, if you're right and Adams gets a nomination, she will have to win, I guess

[Working stiff]

@ cal roth

And it would be a weird case of reverse coattails: a locked supporting nominee pulling along a less than preordained leading nominee. Somehow appropriate that it would involve the two most nominated and un-Oscared living actresses.

[Dl]

If Adams gets nominated, it will be one of the worst performances to ever be nominated for Best Actress. However, it could keep company to her other all-time-worst nomination in the supporting category for Vice.

[Jeff]

Kate Winslet was really amazing in Ammonite, and I thought the movie was good too.
Unfortunately, I think one of the reasons it didn't pick up as much steam as it could have awards wise is because it didn't inspire a "who was better?" among the two acting giants, Winslet and Ronan the way other movies like this do. It was always Kate's movie, not a two lead movie like Carol.

[Patrick]

Please Academy make Winslet happen.

[PT]

Aren't awards supposed to be taken on their own merrit, and not just used to predict the Oscars?

[thevoid99]

Every comment here and most reviews I've read said Loren gets jackshit to do in her film and everyone seems super disappointed by that fact. Guess again buddy.

[Philip H.]

I feel a pang in my chest whenever I think of JLo's snub.

I'm more interested to see the Oscar noms this year than I have been in a long time. I feel like we might get a handful of surprises given the circumstances. Or they'll be extremely predictable, who knows.

[V.]

Bravo for your statistical analysis skills.

I think Maria Bakalova will be the "snub" but maybe it's just wishful thinking.

[Geri]

Thinking in a different way: If Close win, but Adams won't be nominated, Adams became the most nominated living actress without Oscar.

It maybe strongs her overdue narrative to finally earn the Oscar ( perhaps next year for Dear Evan Hansen musical as best supporting actress, as she has a good singing skills ).

Maybe it's a wishful thinking.