Who Will Be The Oscar Acting Surprises & Snubs?

 by Christopher James

Does Golden Globe + SAG + Critics Choice automatically equal Oscar?It’s been a busy week of precursors. With the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards all announced, we have a lot more clarity on the acting categories in the Oscar race. How accurate are these precursors when it comes to predicting Oscar nominees? Let’s dive into the stats and see if this can help us solve who will be our Oscar nominated actors.

For the purposes of analysis, we looked back from 2003 - 2019, as 2003 was the first year the Critics Choice awards had five nominees. Now they have expanded to eight nominees in some categories, but that’s another rant for another time...

How Do Oscar Nominees Usually Perform At The Precursors?

It’s no surprise that a majority of Oscar nominees show up at all three of the major precursors. Roughly 13 of the 20 eventual Oscar nominees will have shown up at SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The remaining seven Oscar nominees will have at least one key miss. While precursors still often guide who these seven nominees will be, there will usually be one nominee who showed up nowhere in the precursors. We will talk later about who that could be this year.

Key: CC = Critics Choice; GG D = Golden Globes Drama; GG C = Golden Globes Comedy; GG = Golden Globes (Supporting)

If you pull off a triple threat at these three precursors, you’re not in the clear… but you’re pretty close. Those actors who show up everywhere will end up with an Oscar nomination 91% of the time. However, that still means that snubs of these performances happen often. This year, 14 performances showed up at all three major precursors. That means 1-2 performers will be the shocking recipient of an Oscar snub. Since our previous table illustrates that roughly 13 nominees will have all three precursors, we can assume that only 1 performer will be the recipient of a shocking snub. We will take a look at who that might be later in the article. 

In terms of filling out the remaining six of the seven acting slots, let’s look at which precursors matter most. Four of those six slots will come from performances that show up at two of the three precursors. Those who end up at the SAGs are most likely to repeat, particularly if they have a Critics Choice or Golden Globe (supporting) nomination. The combination of a Golden Globes supporting nomination and Critics Choice nomination can also be promising. The lead acting nominations at the Golden Globes aren’t often great predictors, since there are ten nominees vying for five slots.

What Precursor Is Most Predictive Of Oscar?

Correlation by Precursor:

• SAG: 0.59

• Critics Choice: 0.50

• Golden Globes: 0.10

We looked at the acting nominees for each of these precursors from 2003-2019 and compared them to the corresponding Oscar nominations. The Critics Choice only started doing five-wide nominee fields in 2003, which was why we started there. The correlation coefficient is a number between -1 and 1. The closer a number is to 1 suggests a positive correlation (ex: a nomination at SAG correlates strongly to an Oscar nomination). Conversely, the closer a number is to -1 demonstrates a negative correlation (ex: a nomination at Golden Globes means one would likely not be nominated for an Oscar nomination). When a number is close to 0, it means there is low correlation (ex: a Golden Globes nomination gives zero indication whether an actor will get an Oscar nomination).

As one can see, SAG has the strongest correlation to an Oscar nomination, with Critic’s Choice close behind. However, this trend has changed over the seventeen years we observed. As you can see by the trended graph above, the SAGs have become less predictive year after year, while the Golden Globes have become more predictive. In fact, if one looks specifically at the polynomial trendline for each precursor, the Critics Choice became the most predictive from 2018-2019. Yes, only SAG has voting overlap with the Acting branch of the Academy. However, these other precursors may hold more of a key to Oscar nominations in recent history. This could also be a factor of their expanding number of nominees. Likewise, the Critics Choice continues to increase the number of nominees each year (this year Best Actor has 8 nominees), which helps make it more “predictive.”

Who Will Be The Big Snub?

We are still not over Jennifer Lopez missing an Oscar nomination for "Hustlers" after a stellar precursor track record.Actors With All Three Precursor Nominations Snubbed at the Oscars

1. Paul Giamatti - Sideways (2004)

2. Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man (2005)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed (2006)

4. Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart (2007)

5. Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl (2007)

6. Mila Kunis - Black Swan (2010)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar (2011)

8. Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

9. John Hawkes - The Sessions (2012)

10. Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone (2012)

11. Daniel Bruhl - Rush (2013)

12. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks (2013)

13. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips (2013)

14. Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler (2014)

15. Jennifer Aniston - Cake (2014)

16. Helen MIrren - Trumbo (2015)

17. Michael Shannon - 99 Homes (2015)

18. Amy Adams - Arrival (2016)

19. Hong Chau - Downsizing (2017)

20. James Franco - The Disaster Artist (2017)

21. Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns (2018)

22. Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy (2018)

23. Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers (2019)

We’ve determined that there will be 1-2 big snubs this year, though most likely just one. When we look at the list of actors snubbed in the past, a few trends jump out. Of the 23 actors mentioned above, 18 of them were in movies that did not show up in Best Picture and 10 of them were in movies that had zero Oscar nominations. That leaves five performances that were snubbed despite being in a Best Picture nominee (highlighted above). Category confusion likely caused Leonardo DiCaprio’s snub for The Departed (also he was nominated for Blood Diamond that year). The remaining four performers were from well-known actors who people might have felt were “safe.” There’s no substitute for passion, that’s how you break into any Oscar category.

Maria Bakalova has earned nominations at the Golden Globes, SAG Awards and Critics Choice Awards for "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm."

So Who Has All Three Precursors This Year?

• Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

• Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

• Anthony Hopkins - The Father

• Gary Oldman - Mank

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• Frances McDormand - Nomadland

• Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

• Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

• Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

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• Leslie Odom, Jr. - One Night in Miami

• Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

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• Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm 

• Olivia Colman - The Father

• Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Looking at the fourteen performances above, the few films not in the Best Picture conversation are Pieces of a Woman (Kirby), Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Bakalova) and Hillbilly Elegy (Close). There’s also the possibility that The Father (Hopkins, Colman), Sound of Metal (Ahmed) and Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya) won’t show up in Best Picture. Of those performances, none of them fall into “category confusion” (though some would be considered category fraud). In terms of the “passion factor,” Vanessa Kirby appears to have the lowest amount of passionate fans. Broadening out to likely Best Picture nominees, Gary Oldman still feels like he commands less passion than the other contenders in the category. Mank had a starry ensemble, but missed at SAG in the ensemble category and in Supporting Actress for Amanda Seyfried. Perhaps support is lower than anticipated for that title across the board.

My Prediction for Snub: Gary Oldman - Mank

Who Will Be The Surprise Nomination?

Many were (happily) shocked when Marina de Tavira pulled out a surprise Oscar nomination for "Roma" in 2018.Actors Who Were Oscar Nominated With No Precursor Support

1. Djimon Hounsou - In America (2003)

2. Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog (2003)

3. Alan Alda - The Aviator (2004)

4. Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby (2004)

5. William Hurt - A History of Violence (2005)

6. Laura Linney - The Savages (2007)

7. Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley of Elah (2007)

8. Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road (2008)

9. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart (2009)

10. Javier Bardem - Biutiful (2010)

11. Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)

12. Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

13. Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

14. Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)

15. Bradley Cooper - American Sniper (2014)

16. Laura Dern - Wild (2014)

17. Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread (2017)

18. Marina de Tavira - Roma (2018)

Looking at the “out-of-nowhere” nominees from the past, it becomes clear that Oscar coattails are real. Of the 18 performances listed above, 14 came from movies with other key nominations, including 7 from Best Picture nominees. This means that voters are catching up on movies they know they “have to see” and if they like it well enough, they’ll nominate it everywhere. This is why momentum is critical.

Also, these surprise nominees are more likely to happen in Supporting, rather than Lead. Two-thirds of the mentioned performances were in Supporting, while six were in lead. Of those six leading actors, five were famous actors/previous Oscar nominees and the sixth was Gary Oldman, who was considered long overdue. Supporting nominations can happen from actors who are less well known, like Michael Shannon or Marina de Tavira. 

Frances McDormand has been earning awards for "Nomadland." Could she possibly bring David Strathairn with her?

Supporting Performances in Films Being Seen by Oscar voters:

• Yahya Abdul-Mateen II - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Bo Burnham - Promising Young Woman

• Lily Collins - Mank

• Olivia Cooke - Sound of Metal

• Colman Domingo - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

• Dominique Fishback - Judas and the Black Messiah

• Frank Langella - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Yeri Han - Minari

• Jonathan Majors - Da 5 Bloods

• Linda May - Nomadland

• Will Patton - Minari

• Eddie Redmayne - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Mark Rylance - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• David Strathairn - Nomadland

• Jeremy Strong - The Trial of the Chicago 7

• Swankie - Nomadland

• Glynn Turman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Normally, you have to be a universal stand-out in the ensemble to pull off this surprise. Thus, I don’t think it will be any of The Trial of Chicago 7 or Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom men. Instead, David Strathairn or Bo Burnham feel most likely of this group of longshots. Olivia Cooke is definitely also in the running, but only if Paul Raci is also getting in for Supporting Actor, showing that there is tremendous love for Sound of Metal.

Will Sophia Loren be able to return to the Oscars nearly sixty years after she won for "Two Women."

Lead Performances from Oscar Favorites

• George Clooney - The Midnight Sky

• Colin Firth - Supernova

• Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead

• Meryl Streep - The Prom, Let Them All Talk

• Kate Winslet - Ammonite

If Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet can’t get the Golden Globes attention, they’re done. The only person on this list that still stands a chance is Sophia Loren. She’s a legendary Oscar winner who has also been a memorable personality on the telecasts (the side-eye at Jayne Mansfield, yelling “Roberto” when Benigni won, introducing Meryl Streep for Doubt). Not only that, the Netflix campaign has been pushing her hard, including producing the What Would Sophia Loren Do short. 

My Prediction for the Surprise: Sophia Loren - The Life Ahead

Who do you expect to be the big surprises and big snubs at the Oscars? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[Ready]

I'm guessing the snub will be one of three guys - Oldman, Kaluuya or Baron Cohen.

Surprise nominee - Best Actor nominee Ben Affleck.

[Rich]

Hoping Michelle Pfeiffer gets the surprise Best Actress nomination. Her film opens this week (could be why she missed precursor noms) and she’s campaigning hard with interviews

[Claran]

Surprise Nominee - I'd say Pfeiffer but only IF she wins the Golden Globes over Bakalova.

I tink Netflix has way too many leading ladies in their hands, to seriously push Loren to a nom. The luv for The Life Ahead seems rather tepid so far, If GG & Bafta dun go for Loren, I dun tink AA will

Shocking Snub - I wanna say Oldman, but actually Kirby seems more likely. Oldman has the advantage of Mank being a frontrunner in best pic & other key categories, and most voters wld have seem it...Kirby if she is nom, is likely the sole nominee fr PoW.

A Bafta nom is definitely in place for both Oldman & Kirby (since its their hometurf) but stateside profile wise, Oldman still gets the edge over Kirby.

[Kevin]

Shocked by the constant lack of Kate Winslet this season. One of her best performances, still haunts me.

[Evan]

Great analysis!

I'd be worried for:
Bakalova- That is obviously not a traditional Oscar nominee. It would be very easy for her to drop out if voters don't take the performance seriously.
Kirby- Is anyone still talking about this film? Supporting Actress has been pretty wide open and the legendary Ellen Burstyn hasn't managed many noms for her performance in it, so do people really care about it?
Ahmed- I *think* he's in, but this also feels like a very atypical Oscar nominee who sorta fell into the conversation. If he falls out of the conversation as quickly as he got in, I wouldn't be shocked.

I wouldn't count out:
Langella or Rylance- 'Chicago 7' is the sorta easily digestible film with a whiff of social importance that Oscar loves. Langella in particular has a very showy role.
Dominique Fishback- if 'Judas' peaks at the right time.

[Patrick]

oh god, please let Riz Ahmed dont be this year Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler). Still bitter that he doesnt make the cut in the end. Its even more worse, that he has only one nomination for Brokeback mOuntain by category fraud. He deserves so much more!

And what is with Winslet this season! Its because it is a subtle performance? She deserves to be nominated this year! Hope BAFTA will and Ampas with a shock nomination! A wonderful shock I guess! She also is overdue for a second oscar. When Zellweger can get 2, why not her? But this year I am routing for Close. Not only for her career alone, but I find her deserving.

[MJ]

The general consensus seems to be that Nicole Beharie is out of the running, but I suspect that's not the case. Not making the BAFTA shortlist or Critics' Choice didn't help, sure, but Carrie Coon and Julianne Moore have praised about her performance on social media. With enough word of mouth, AMPAS members in their circles (and Tracy Letts') could get her in.

[blythe]

in lead actress i think elisabeth moss in the invisible man could be closest to a surprise nomination though i dont expect one

[Hans]

The data nerd in me loves everything in this article!