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« Oscar Volley: Best Cinematography Predictions | Main | Almost There: Claire Foy in "First Man" »
Thursday
Dec082022

NBR flies off into the sunset with "Top Gun Maverick"

by Nathaniel R

TOP GUN MAVERICK

The National Board of Review has spoken. They've named the year's biggest box office hit Top Gun Maverick the very best film of 2022. They also loved two other presumed Best Picture certainties: The Fablemans and The Banshees of Inisherin giving both multiple prizes. The NBR also made an effort to boost the profiles of four subtitled films hoping for kudos this awards season: Germany's All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina's Argentina 1985, India's RRR, and Belgium's Close. The enduring organization didn't love all the Oscar hopefuls though.  Among the high profile complete shutouts: Babylon, Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Elvis, Tár, and The Whale. Full list of winners and comments follow...

Film: TOP GUN MAVERICK
The rest of their top ten (er... top 11) is in alpha order 

  • Aftersun
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • The Banshees of Inisherin
  • Everything Everywhere All At Once
  • The Fabelmans
  • Glass Onion
  • RRR
  • Till
  • The Woman King
  • Women Talking

Director: Steven Spielberg, THE FABELMANS

Weird Trivia Note: Exactly half of their 32 most recent winners have gone on to Oscar nominations. They never stray far from general Oscar buzz in this particular category and yet, weirdly it's their lowest Oscar correlation within the high profile categories in terms of winners becoming Oscar nominees.

Two acting prizes for THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

Actor: Colin Farrell, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Maybe he is a real threat to Brendan Fraser's long presumed win at the forthcoming Oscars? Or maybe not. NBR lead actor winners don't usually repeat at the Oscars; in the past 15 years only Casey Affleck and Will Smith have won both... 

Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Most of their winners in this category go on to Oscar nominations but like lead actor they don't usually win. In the past 15 years only Christian Bale, Christopher Plummer, and Brad Pitt have won both. 

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE

Actress: Michelle Yeoh, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
This is the first time NBR has ever given Best Actress to an Asian woman.

Most winners here go on to an Oscar nod. The three most recent misses were Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Amy Adams (Arrival), and Emma Thompson (Saving Mr Banks). 

Supporting Actress: Janelle Monáe, GLASS ONION
18 of the last 32 winners have gone on to an Oscar nomination. As with Best Director this is NBR's only other high profile category that doesn't have a particular high rate of Oscar correlation through the years. That's changing though since the NBR has been getting less and less daring in their choices in this category (they used to just go really wild in this category). The last time somebody missed an Oscar nomination after winning the NBR in this category was eight years ago: Jessica Chastain in  A Most Violent Year (2014). 

Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

Adapted Screenplay: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell, ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT

Nice get for this strong German film though we have to admit that the screenplay is not the first thing we think about when we're thinking about it since it's such a visceral visual and sonic experience. 

Breakthrough Performance: Danielle Deadwyler, TILL and Gabriel LaBelle, THE FABELMANS 

The NBR has been giving out this prize since 1995 and in the 27 years of the prize, 18 times it's been a double award (usually but not always split by gender).
 

Directorial Debut: Charlotte Wells, AFTERSUN

We love Aftersun but we're curious... will any other debut film win any "Debut" prizes this season? 

Animated Feature: MARCELL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
The NBR is super mainstream in terms of this particular category (almost always a huge studio CG effort) so this is a bit of a surprise. It bodes well for Oscar love too since they rarely go "arthouse". In other words, if even NBR loves it...

CLOSE

Foreign Language Film: CLOSE (Belgium)
They also release a top 5, alphabetically, so essentially a top six. The others are:

  • All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
  • Argentina 1985 (Argentina)
  • Decision to LEave (South Korea)
  • EO (Poland)
  • Saint Omer (France)

We will probably see all 6 of those titles in the Oscar finalist list but not all of them will make it since there are only 5 Oscar nominees.


Documentary: "SR"
Same thing with a top six. The others are:

  • All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
  • All That Breathes
  • Descendant
  • Turn Every Page - The Adventures of Robert Caro & Robert Gottlieb
  • Wildcat

A bit of a surprise here since Turn Every Page and Wildcat haven't been showing up in the other Doc precursors. Will they make the Oscar finals? (Here's the complete eligibility list) 

Acting by an Ensemble: WOMEN TALKING

This award has less correlation to SAG's eventual nominees for Outstanding Cast than you'd think. In the past two decades only about half of the winners have gone on to that parallel nomination at SAG.

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Claudio Miranda, TOP GUN MAVERICK

We knew this would end up in the Oscar mix for Cinematography but still surprised that it is the unanimous choice amongst precursor groups so far for this craft. 

NBR Freedom of Expression AwardALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED and ARGENTINA 1985

Top Ten Independent Films
(Alpha Order)

TO LESLIE

  • Armageddon Time
  • Emily the Criminal
  • Eternal Daughter
  • Funny Pages
  • The Inspection
  • Living
  • A Love Song
  • Nanny
  • To Leslie
  • The Wonder

If the NBR really loves an "indie" they just stick it in their normal top ten (see Aftersun this time and Red Rocket last year). So even though it's a delight to see so many films recognized it often does feel like "a way to sell more tables at their party!"

What do you think of their choices this year? 

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Reader Comments (13)

Nice to see how 'award-worthy' films are curated by various critics groups. Not the last word obviously but it maps out which films, craft, performances, direction, writing, others, get noticed. No matter how credible these film critics' groups are, films get a boost or a push in the envelope nonetheless.

In keeping with this site's obsession with actresses, is there really no chance for:

Emily Watson, God's Creatures
Tilda Swinton, Eternal Daughter
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave
Dale Dickey, A Love Song
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Fatma Mohamed, Flux Gourmet
Noémie Merlant, Tár
Mia Goth, Pearl

December 8, 2022 | Registered CommenterOwl

Tom Cruise has apparently harnessed the dark power of Xenu to trick people into thinking that TOP GUN: MAVERICK is anything more than a haphazardly written, boringly shot vanity project doubling as Navy recruitment ad! Wake up, honey!

December 8, 2022 | Registered CommenterWae Mest

I haven't seen Top Gun: Maverick. I haven't even seen Top Gun. I don't want to see either of those films. WTF is going on?

I am glad they chose Yeoh though.

December 8, 2022 | Registered Commenterwhunk (he/him)

@Whunk- I'm in the same boat as you. I don't look forward to having to watch either film.

@Owl- It's possible Goth gets a few critics notices for Pearl. She isn't going to get near Oscar since it's horror and they are practically allergic to horror, but her name might come up later on.

December 8, 2022 | Registered CommenterTomG

I think Brendan Gleeson is great, and I don't even think a supporting placement is all that fraudulent, but I don't know how you could watch Banshees and not think Barry Keoghan is the best supporting actor in it.

December 8, 2022 | Registered CommenterMike in Canada

I think Colin Farrell has a better shot at winning than Brendan Fraser precisely because Farrell's movie has a real shot at a Best Picture nomination, whereas Fraser's is looking less and less likely at making it into the top field. Lead actresses may not need their movies to be nominated for Best Picture in order to win, but history indicates otherwise for lead actors.

December 8, 2022 | Registered Commenterbvrs90

What will happen if... Xenu does exist and is then killed?

December 8, 2022 | Registered Commenterthevoid99

I think it is an interesting project. Everything happens also have their own meaning.


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December 9, 2022 | Registered CommenterRaphael Theodore

I (still) don't see Top Gun winning but NBR did the right thing trying to resuscitate the race.

Looks like it's going to be Farrell/McDonagh all the way and I'm fine with that.

December 9, 2022 | Registered CommenterPeggy Sue

Thanks for not spilling any tea on Monae as a lot of us reading probably haven't seen it,seems she's more of a threat than I thought.

Pleased for Yeoh and Deadwyler,haven't seen Banshees,the televised awards will say if Farrell is the frontrunner.

Haven't seen TG2 but will if it's among the nominees for Oscar.

December 9, 2022 | Registered CommenterMr Ripley79

I don't understand that screenplay award for All Quiet on the Western Front at all. They liked Glass Onion, Marcel the Shell, Women Talking, Living, The Wonder... any of them would have made more sense. Honoring All Quiet... for its screenplay is about like honoring Maverick for its screenplay. It's the last thing you think about watching that movie.

Otherwise, though, I like these choices. And I would love to see that quartet of acting winners at the Oscars, unlikely though it seems.

December 9, 2022 | Registered Commenterjules

I think Colin is having a great run! Although NBR isn't predictive of BA wins, I could easily see him running the table like Will Smith did (and Casey Affleck to some extent). He's in a really strong stage of his career, is a male muse of sorts to two well loved "aueteurs," is a legend of Irish cinema, and has a strong narrative (e.g., overcoming drug addiction, making good as a serious actor, playing nice with others, overcoming the drama of the sex tape, etc.). I think Fraser will be an afterthought.

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