The ASC winner is 'Dune' but will it repeat at the Oscars?

by Nathaniel R

With the PGA, WGA, and now the American Society of Cinematographers, we have our last clues going into Oscar night. Not that guilds always line up with Oscar wins mind you. They do share some members with the Academy but all the guilds have far more members than their parallel branches in the Academy. Here's what they chose this year...

FEATURE FILM Greig Fraser, Dune

Fraser is a brilliant Australian DP who first came to attention working for Jane Campion on a short film and then the breathtakingly beautiful Bright Star (2009). Afterwards he wowed Hollywood on films like Let Me In, Snow White and the Huntsman, and Zero Dark Thirty, and finally snagged an Oscar nomination for Lion (2017). This is his second win at ASC after Lion. He could very well win the Oscar -- his work on Dune is amazing -- but Oscar voters also know they have a chance to make history with a win for Ari Wegner's work on The Power of the Dog; she'd be the first female cinematographer ever to win. So we have two cinematographers that Jane Campion embraced very early in their careers going head-to-head on Oscar night. ICYMI here's our Team Experiene Oscar Volley discussing this race. 

How often does the ASC choice lineup with Oscars? A little more than 50% of the time. Here's the past twenty years with differentiation in bold.

2020 Mank
2019 1917
2018 Cold War. Lost the Oscar to Roma
2017 Blade Runner 2049
2016 Lion. Lost the Oscar to La La Land
2015 The Revenant. 
2014 Birdman
2013 Gravity
2012 Skyfall. Lost the Oscar to Life of Pi
2011 The Tree of Life. Lost the Oscar to Hugo
2010 Inception
2009 The White Ribbon. Lost the Oscar to Avatar
2008 Slumdog Millionaire
2007 There Will Be Blood
2006 Children of Men. Lost the Oscar to Pan's Labyrinth
2005 Memoirs of a Geisha
2004 A Very Long Engagement. Lost the Oscar to The Aviator
2003 Seabiscuit. Lost the Oscar to Master and Commander
2002 Road to Perdition
2001 The Man Who Wasn't There. Lost the Oscar to Lord of the Rings

The ASC has other prizes too.

DOCUMENTARY Jessica Beshir, Faya Dayi

SPOTLIGHT Pat Scola, Pig

TELEVISION LIMITED OR MOTION PICTURE James Laxton, The Underground Railroad

ONE HOUR TELEVISION - NONCOMMERCIAL Jon Joffin, Titans "Souls"

ONE HOUR TELEVISION COMMERCIAL Thomas Burstyn, Snowpiercer "Our Answer for Everything"

HALF HOUR TELEVISION Michael Berlucchi, Mythic Quest "Backstory!"

Comments

[jules]

I think Dune is pretty safe here. Dune doesn't feel like any of the selections in bold. It feels poised to sweep a lot of the below-the-line categories in the manner of something like Gravity (minus the Best Director win, of course).

[Peggy Sue]

I had totally forgotten that Cold War won (yay) and that Nomadland lost (boo).

[Mike in Canada]

Nathaniel: You just keep running with that Oscar Isaac photo whenever you can. It's appreciated.

[Peggy Sue]

I was predicting The Power of the Dog to win 4-5 Oscars... I feel like such a fool.