Emmy Category Analysis: Drama Series
Thursday, September 8, 2022 at 12:01PM 
BETTER CALL SAUL
This category feels to me like one of the most interesting since there isn’t an undeniable frontrunner -- all the nominees offer something truly captivating. While it’s possible that Succession takes it again, which I think would be disappointing since it already swept a lot the last time it was eligible, there’s legitimate buzz to be considered for at least half the slate. Let’s take a look at the series in contention, their awards history, and the episodes they submitted (links to reviews with spoilers)…
Better Call Saul (Season 6, Part 1, AMC)
Episodes: “Carrot and Stick,” “Rock and Hard Place,” “Hit and Run,” “Black and Blue,” “Axe and Grind,” “Plan and Execution”
This is the sixth nomination for the Breaking Bad prequel, which took both last season and the 2017-2018 season off. It’s received between seven and nine nominations every time, this year netting seven. The first half (seven episodes) of its final season was definitely terrific, but it’s important to also look at its back half, since it aired during voting and will likely influence the results since those installments were even more intense. The Hollywood Critics Association went all in on this show last month, handing it three acting trophies and a Drama Series tie with Succession. The lackluster nomination tally (in comparison) suggests that Emmy voters are not quite as into it, but a win here or in one of the acting categories isn’t totally out of the question.
Euphoria (Season 2, HBO)
Episodes: “Trying to Get to Heaven Before They Close the Door,” “Ruminations: Big and Little Bullys,” “You Who Cannot See, Think of Those Who Can,” “Stand Still Like the Hummingbird,” “The Theater and Its Double,” “All My Life, My Heart Has Yearned for a Thing I Cannot Name”
This is the only returning show that's new to the top category. After Zendaya scored a semi-surprising win for lead actress for the first season two years ago, the show is back with nearly double the nominations (16). Most of them, however, are technical bids, with only Sydney Sweeney joining Zendaya for acting honors and no writing or directing mentions. This show is certainly an audience sensation, but I think getting into this lineup was its victory.
Ozark (Season 4, Netflix)
Episodes: “Sanctified,” “The Cousin of Death,” “Pick a God and Pray,” “You’re the Boss,” “Trouble the Water,” “A Hard Way to Go”
This is the third nomination for this now-concluded series, which, unlike Better Call Saul, opted to air both halves of its final season within the same eligibility window (its episode submissions include only one hour from the first half). Its nomination total dropped from eighteen to thirteen, which isn’t terrible, and its three leads are all nominated again. But while I’ve personally become more endeared to the show as it’s gone on, I think it needed to show up in a much larger way in the nominations to be a legitimate contender for the top Emmy. In another world, Jason Bateman and Laura Linney might have had a shot at winning their races, but it’s likely that its only reward this time will be a third trophy for Julia Garner.
Severance (Season 1, Apple TV+)
Episodes: “Good News About Hell,” “Half Loop,” “In Perpetuity,” “Defiant Jazz,” “What’s for Dinner?,” “The We We Are”
This show to me is an unusual example of a series that gets better with each and every episode, culminating in an absolutely mesmerizing finale -- so ready for season two! Fourteen nominations is a decent haul, and I would be thrilled if this show managed to take home this award. There’s still something that feels subversive about it, though, as if it’s not quite mainstream enough and still waiting to be discovered. Wins for director Ben Stiller and supporting actor John Turturro, and maybe even stars Patricia Arquette and Adam Scott, feel more possible than a victory here.
Squid Game (Season 1, Netflix)
Episodes: “Red Light, Green Light,” “Hell,” “Gganbu,” “VIPS,” “Front Man,” “One Lucky Day”
This show’s presence here is a big deal since it’s the first non-English series up for this prize, and it’s had quite an exciting awards journey thus far. Its two stars won SAG Awards, and it’s now up for fourteen Emmys, including for five of its actors, no small feat for a Korean-language series. Its selected episodes favor the latter half of the season, but it’s also just a question of your tolerance for the misery and competition compellingly portrayed within the show. It definitely stands a good chance of winning, but I’m not quite ready to predict it as the definitive victor.
Stranger Things (Season 4, Netflix)
Episodes: “The Hellfire Club,” “Vecna’s Curse,” “The Monster and the Superhero,” “Dear Billy,” “The Dive,” “The Massacre at Hawkins Lab”
This is the fourth nomination in this category for this show, representing the first seven episodes of its fourth season. While it rebounded with its second-highest total nomination count, this is the second season in a row that it has no actors, directors, or writers nominated. While it’s likely to win a fourth sound editing trophy and maybe a few other technical prizes, there would have needed to be a more ringing endorsement of season four’s strength (like a directing bid for its stellar seventh episode) for it to be a contender to win Drama Series.
Succession (Season 3, HBO)
Episodes: “Secession,” “Retired Janitors of Idaho,” “What It Takes,” “Too Much Birthday,” “Chiantishire,” “All the Bells Say”
This show returns to this race strong. After a lackluster five-nomination haul in season one it went on to win seven of its eighteen nominations for season two. It’s far and away the nomination leader this time, with 25 bids, including a new record for number of acting nominations. That makes it the frontrunner, and the question is whether voters will acknowledge that other series – particularly new hits – could be better, or if it really is the best thing on television and deserves another prize.
Yellowjackets (Season 1, Showtime)
“Pilot,” “F Sharp,” “Saints,” “Flight of the Bumblebee,” “Doomcoming,” “Sic Transit Gloria Mundi”
This show was hardly a sure thing for a nomination in this category. Its seven-nomination haul includes only high-profile mentions, with two acting nominees, one directing bid, two writing bids, and another for casting. Its content won’t be appealing for all, but it definitely brings something fresh to the table. I’d bet more on the possibility of director Karyn Kusama or star Melanie Lynskey winning, but a win here for this show, however celebrated it might be, would be a shock.
I do think this is mostly Succession vs. Squid Game, with Severance and Better Call Saul nipping at their heels. While I’d love to predict an upset, I’ve talked to too many showrunners and performers this year who consistently cited Succession as the show they love to watch. I think it will be tough for anything to overtake it. What do you think?
Will win: Succession
Should win: Severance
Spoiler: Squid Game
MORE ANALYSIS
- Limited Series
- Writing/Directing – Limited Series
- Lead Actress - Limited or Anthology
- Lead Actor - Limited or Anthology Series
- Supporting Actress – Limited or Anthology Series
- Supporting Actor - Limited or Anthology Series
- Comedy Series - COMING SOON
- Writing/Directing – Comedy Series
- Lead Actress - Comedy
- Lead Actor - Comedy
- Supporting Actress – Comedy
- Guest Acting - Comedy
Reader Comments (1)
I actually think SUCCESSION can't lose. It just has too much prestige factor and the Emmys are just so slow in rewarding new things esp. in series categories. So sure they might go for a new actor or throw a new show a bone with some tech awards, but for the big kahuna, I feel like they go for the tried and true and ESPECIALLY, as you say, in a category that doesn't REALLY have a frontrunner (which again I still say they do... in SUCCESSION).
It'd be thrilling to see something like SQUID GAME win though.