33 Titles Will Compete for Animated Feature but how many of them really have a shot?

by Nathaniel R

ELEMENTAL is a likely nominee

Long gone are the days when we had to wonder if we were getting only 3 nominees in the Animated Feature Category. This year 33 films are competing (provided a few of them make their one week qualifying runs in the next few weeks) so we'll easily have 5 nominees as we've come to expect. But which titles will it be? After the jump the contenders divvied up into six rough categories... 

BOX OFFICE PHENOMENA

• Elemental (US) Pixar had a leggy hit with this rom-com about fire and water elementals improbably falling for each other, reminding parent company Disney that Pixar films deserve theatrical releases. It earned half a billion worldwide. 
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (US) Already collecting critics prizes and it was a box office smash, too with nearly $700 million earned around the world. It'd be easy to picture as an Oscar winner except for the fact that AMPS has never awarded a sequel in this category unless it had Toy Story in the title. It's the third biggest hit of the year.
• Super Mario Bros: The Movie (US) Until Barbie's pink parade arrived this was the box office titan of the year with $1.3 billion worldwide. But will Oscar bite? Success matters to the voting industry but so does the kind of critical respect that this one doesn't have. It's also an Illumination title and Oscar has only honored them once (despite many hits) with a nomination for Despicable Me 2 ten years ago. 

You can safely assume that Across the Spider-Verse will make the list. Elemental is also extremely likely as a nominee. Pixar only misses with sequels (and even then they're usually nominated). In fact they've only missed once in the category's existence for an original title: The Good Dinsoaur (2015) though, interestingly enough, that was from Elemental's director Peter Sohn.

If both of those titles make it that leaves only three spots but who gets them?

INTERNATIONAL HITS

SUZUME is now a Globe nominee

• The Boy and the Heron (Japan) Oscar-winning animation legend Hayao Miyazaki came out of retirement (again) for this fairy-tale story about a grieving boy and an alternate dimension with an entry point on his father's estate.
• The First Slam Dunk (Japan) A basketball story. A nominee this year at the Asia Pacific Screen Awards and a winner of this category at the Japanese Academy Awards. 
• Suzume (Japan) This fantasy adventure about a teen girl and magical doorways causing disasters is the most financially successfully anime title on the Oscar list this year with $175 million internationally to date. It was also nominated at the Asia Pacific Screen Awards and at the Japanese Academy Awards and today it scored a surprise Globe nomination. That's a good sign that people are actually watching it.

While they weren't blockbusters in the US -- American audiences being very non-adventurous when it comes to animated films -- they've earned plenty around the world (and a lot at home in Japan of course). Since the inception of this category Hayao Miyazaki has only missed a nomination once (Ponyo in 2008) so The Boy and the Heron is our third extremely likely nominee.

If you're following along that means only two slots are truly up for grabs. And here it gets a lot trickier imagining what Oscar voters might go for... 

PEDIGREE OR ART HOUSE CACHE 

ROBOT DREAMS is winning prizes but Oscar resists anything that isn't CG 3D looking. Will they bite?

• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (UK) - the sequel to the Aardman classic from 2000 that surely would have won the Oscar had the category started just one year earlier. It's on Netflix Dec 15th. 
• Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (France) - the sequel to the charming 2013 Oscar nominee about a bear and a mouse.
• The Peasants (Poland) - Poland's International Feature submission. Another painted film from the filmmakers behind the Oscar nominated Loving Vincent. 
• Robot Dreams (Spain) - It just won the European Film Award in this category and previously won the Grand Prix at Annecy. From Spain's Pablo Berger of Blancanieves fame. NEON just released this in the US.
• They Shot the Piano Player (Spain) - From the filmmakers behind the Oscar nominated Chico & Rita.  Sony Pictures Classics just released this in the US. 

The Chicken Run sequel seems like a no brainer for Oscar attention -- they tend to like Aardman Animation -- but a win seems far-fetched given that the sequel doesn't venture far from the original template at all. That means it will feel like a missed opportunity to some viewers (*raises hand*) but provide warm nostalgia for others. The Globes passed which is kind of surprising.

So the real question from this group is whether The Peasants, Robot Dreams, or They Shoot the Piano Player can become the 'art house' choice for engaged voters (or if all of those votes just go to Miyazaki?). Response to the Ernest and Celestine sequel has been muted at best so that feels like quite a long shot despite the success of the original film ten years back.

BIG US STUDIO THEATRICAL EFFORTS 

Can TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM surprise?

• Migration (US) Illumination but it's a Christmas release and Mike White (The White Lotus) wrote it. 
• Paw Patrol: The Movie (US) Oscar almost never goes for the animated movies aimed squarely a very very very young kiddies. 
• Ruby Gillman Teenage Kraken (US) Dreamworks Animation has been nominated frequently but this high school comedy about a girl who learns she's a sea creature came and went without much fanfare.
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (US) Paramount. Production company Nickelodeon Movies hasn't had a nomination since Rango (2011) which won the prize. Despite strong reviews it seems to have been overshadowed by bigger hits like Super Mario Bros.
• Trolls Band Together (US) - Oscar has never nominated a film from this franchise
• Wish (US) - Fantasy musical. Disney is always a threat.

Wish looked like one of the the slam dunk Oscar title in advance -- Disney Musical!  -- but response has been lukewarm thus far with disappointing box office earnings. Does that make it vulnerable or does the Disney brand give it too much of a boost to dislodge it from the shortlist easily?  These other titles are all longer shots though Migration could surprise if response is ecstatic at Christmas time. Interestingly enough one of the Migration co-directors Benjamin Renner is an Oscar nominee via Ernest & Celestine 10 years ago. 

NETFLIX TITLES 

NIMONA is marvelous but will stuffier industry voters think so?

• Leo (US) Adam Sandler wrote and stars in this one about a lizard. Just released on Netflix.
• Magician's Elephant (US) A boy searches for his missing sister with an elephant. It arrived quite early in the year.
• The Monkey King (US/China) A summer release on Netflix. Directed by Oscar nominee Anthony Stacchi (The Boxtrolls)
• Nimona (US) A medieval comic fantasy with serious themes about a shapeshifter and a wrongly accused knight. Based on the genius webcomic. 

From this group Nimona surely has the best shot at Oscar glory since it won the strongest reviews and survived the dread "churn" on Netflix to enter the awards conversation. The question is can it get maneuver around the newer legacy Chicken Run sequel in terms of Netflix's always overstuffed stable of contenders? And, sadly, it's queer elements will turn off the more conservative voters.

Still, Netflix got two titles nominated last year (Pinocchio and The Sea Beast) but that's not easy to do in this category unless you're Disney. And both of Netflix's big contenders in this category were absent from the Globe nominations. 

OTHER INTERNATIONAL TITLES

THE INVENTOR is a stop motion contender. Can it raise its profile before voting?

• The Amazing Maurice (UK) EFA nominee this season.
• Blue Giant (Japan) An animated drama about a boy who receives a saxophone as a gift. 
• Chang'an (China) A nearly 3 hour animated historical war drama
• Deep Sea (China) About a girl and a dreamy sea worl. A nominee this year at the Asia Pacific Screen Awards. 
• The Inventor (France) This one is about Leonardo DaVinci. The style here (at least in stills) looks like old Rankin-Bass productions. Yum. 
• Lonely Castle in the Mirror (Japan) Teenagers are drawn into a wondrous castle from their mirrors. A nominee at the Japanese Academy Awards.
• Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir: The Movie (France) - A superhero story based on the TV series.
• My Love Affair with Marriage (Latvia) - "A story of inner female rebellion". An EFA nominee last season and a prize winner at Annecy last year as well. Mrs Patrick Wilson herself Dagmara Dominczyk voices the lead character. 
• Titina (Norway) A polar adventure film. A nominee at Norway's Amanda Awards for "Best Chidlren's Film"
• Unicorn Wars (Spain). A horror themed animated feature about warring teddy bears. Winner of this category at the Goya Awards. 
• Warrior King (China) A fantasy film about a young man in exile 

The problem for all of these titles is their low profile. Once the Academy opened up voting in this category to anyone interested (rather than just the animation branch) it became harder for non American quality titles to get noticed.  

Which do you think will be nominated at the Oscars? [See also: current Oscar charts]

Comments

[Alex Hartsell]

Saw your updated predictions for Best Animated Feature, Nathaniel. They are good but I think you should switch Wish with Suzume seeing how Suzume had a screening at the Academy Award Museum that could get it a nomination. (https://www.animationmagazine.net/2023/11/exclusive-makoto-shinkai-retrospective-coming-soon-to-academy-museum/) Also you forgot that The Boy and the Heron also won Best Animated Feature at the 2023 Los Angeles Film Critics Association and here is a link at https://variety.com/2023/film/awards/los-angeles-film-critics-lafca-2023-winners-1235832312/. Also I can see The Super Mario Bros. Movie get an Oscar nomination for only Best Original Song can you?

[Cláudio Alves]

Considering it just topped the American weekend box office after being a major hit in such markets as Japan and France, I think THE BOY AND THE HERON may be inching itself into blockbuster territory. We'll have to wait and see.

In other matters, I wish the Academy would honor the likes of SUZUME (spellbinding) instead of WISH (flotsam).

[Alex Hartsell]

@Cláudio Alves Don't worry, I believe The Academy is smart in somethings and they will nominated Suzume or maybe Robot Dreams over Wish seen how Wish has been getting reviews and box office reports that won't be up the Academy's liking. Also Suzume had a screening at the Academy Award museum that could get voters (who now go to the museum) to pay more attention to Suzume.

[Golden Boy]

I think Nat forgot to update his article before it went live because The Boy and The Heron topped American Box Office, it’s pretty much an international hit too.

[NATHANIEL R]

Golden Boy - it's already listed under 'international hits'. It's cooled that it topped the US box office this weekend though.

[NATHANIEL R]

for those who are curious the international totals thus far

1 SUPER MARIO BROS 1.3 billion
2 SPIDER-MAN ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE 690 million
3 ELEMENTAL 495 million

4 PAW PATROL THE MOVIE 195 million
5 TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES 180 million
6 SUZUME 175 million
7 TROLLS BAND TOGETHER 174 million
8 FIRST SLAM DUNK 152 million
9 WISH 106 million (and growing)
10 BOY AND THE HERON 97 million (and growing quickly)

11 RUBY GILLMAN TEENAGE KRAKEN 45 million
12 MIRACULOUS: LADYBUG AND CAT NOIR 39 million
13 THE AMAZING MAURICE 21 million
14 BLUE GIANT 6 million
15 LONELY CASTLE IN THE MIRROR 6 million
16 ERNEST AND CELESTINE 2 4 million

17 TITINA 493k
18 THE INVENTOR 317k
19 THEY SHOT THE PIANO PLAYER 165k

20 UNICORN WARS 28k
21 ROBOT DREAMS 1k

[Elazul]

I believe Perlimps is the 33rd title that's not mentioned in the text.