Oscar Predictions, 1st Round: Best Animated Feature
Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 4:00PM by Nathaniel R
It's time to begin the annual April Foolish Predictions debacle. We say debacle and we call them "Foolish" not just as a pun on April Fools (even though yes, the bulk of these will be in May - shut up!) but because we know so little about the year's contenders this early in the year. After the jump the list of animated pictures that might be in play and the possibility that the two female breakouts from 2021's West Side Story may go head-to-head in this category as musical protagonists...
THE CHART IF YOU WANNA SEE IT. BUT HERE IS MORE INFO...
PEDIGREE POWER
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix/Aardman) November 10th
The original Chicken Run, Aardman's biggest box office hit, might have been the first Oscar winner in the Best Animated Feature category had the Academy gotten around to creating the category just a bit sooner. Only two stop-motion titles have ever won the Oscar since the Academy obsessively fawns on Disney (which in turn obsessively fawns on CG titles): Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were Rabbit (2005) and Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (2022). Therefore the cards are stacked against it, even if it lives up to its predecessor.
Elemental (Disney/Pixar) June 16th
Peter Sohn, who voiced the standout character in Lightyear ("Sox") and previously directed the Good Dinosaur, is behind the camera for this original fantasy adventure about a city where elements of all kinds (fire water land and air) live. It's getting a premiere at Cannes before its theatrical release. Pixar has released 26 features to date and of the 23 that were eligible for this particular Oscar, 17 have been nominated. Here's a notable pesky piece of trivia, though. Of the six Pixar films Oscar passed on for this category, only one was a non-sequel/ prequel: The Good Dinosaur (2015). So better luck this time to Sohn!
How Do You Live? (GKids / Studio Ghibli) TBA
The iconic 82 year old auteur Hayao Miyazaki returns from retirement (as is his nature) with his first film in ten years. Miyazaki is the world's most respected auteur in this particular medium and was previously nominated for Howl's Moving Castle (2005), and The Wide Rises (2013) and previously won for Spirited Away (2002). If How Do You Live, which is scheduled to open in Japan this summer, is well received and makes it to the US in time it could be a major power player this year. How Do You Live is based on one of Miyazaki's favourite books, a 1937 YA novel about a teenage boy's spiritual journey after the death of his father and a journal he reads from his uncle.
Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse (Columbia/Sony/Marvel) June 2nd
The original Into the Spider-Verse (2018) was a critical smash and box office hit and deservedly took the Oscar. What will they do for an encore now that the animation style it pioneered isn't a shock to the system but already influential? Can lightning strike twice despite Oscar's sequel aversion (Toy Story series excepted)? The directing trio from the 2018 feature is gone, replaced by Joaquim Dos Santos (who worked on several acclaimed animated tv series), Kemp Powers (who co-directed Soul and was Oscar nominated for writing One Night in Miami), and Justin K Thompson (a production designer on Into the Spider-Verse)
A "WEST SIDE STORY" FOLLOW-UP FACE-OFF
Spellbound (Apple / Skydance) Release Date TBA
2021's breakout "Maria", Rachel Zegler, has been in demand since the remake of the classic West Side Story. She has live action pictures coming up but first a headlining voice role as a magical princess. Vicky Jenson (Shark Tale) directs this musical fantasy which also features Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem as Queen and King.
Wish (Disney) Nov 22nd
2021's Oscar-winning "Anita", Ariana DeBose, has also been in demand. She's had multiple small TV roles since her Oscar-win and she's got a whole slew of movies in post-production including this musical fantasy in which she played a young girl who gets more than she expects when she wishes on a trouble-making star. Disney (non-Pixar variety) does very well in the Best Animated Feature category with 13 nominations and 4 wins thus far. Wish is directed by Oscar winner Chris Buck (Frozen) and first time director Fawn Veerasunthorn (who previously worked on both Raya and the Last Dragon and Moana). Chris Pine and Alan Tudyk support DeBose on voice work duties.
WILD CARDS?
Migration (Universal / Illumination) Dec 22nd
Illumination has only been in the Oscar mix once (Despicable Me 2) but they've delivered multiple animated blockbusters to movie theaters. If there's a chance to change their awards narrative maybe it will come by way of Emmy magnet Mike White (White Lotus) who scripted this comedy about a family of ducks heading south for the winter. A Christmas release for an original story suggests box office confidence at the very least.
The Monkey King (Netflix / Pearl) Release Date TBA
This fantasy is about a dragon king and monkey king at odds. We don't know if it will be ready in time but it comes from two previous Oscar nominees, producer Peilin Chou (Over the Moon) and director Anthony Stacchi (The Boxtrolls). The voice cast includes a who's who of Asian actors including Stephanie Hsu, Hoon Lee, BD Wong, Bowen Yang, Jodi Long, Jolie Hoang-Rappaport. Jimmy O Yang has the titular role.
OTHER ENGLISH LANGUAGE TITLES TO WATCH OUT FOR
- Coyote vs Acme (Warner Bros) Release Date TBA
- Fixed (Sony / Imageworks) Genndy Tartakovsky directs this R rated comedy about a dog, who is in love with a show dog next door but is about to be neutered. The Academy hasn't shown much interest in adult-skewing animation but we'll see.
- High in the Clouds (Netflix / Gaumont) Release Date TBA Based on the novel by Paul McCartney
- Leo (Netflix) Nov 22nd
- The Magician's Elephant (Netflix / Animal Logic) March 17th Already streaming on Netflix though there hasn't been much talk. It's an adventure based on a 2009 novel
- Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (Universal / Dreamworks) June 30th
- Super Mario Bros Movie (Universal/Illumination) April 5th People were shocked when it did gangbusters box office but should they have been? Still, it's not likely this will be in Oscar play given the critical drubbing and many more high profile animated features to come
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount/Nickelodeon) Aug 4th
- Trolls Band Together (Universal / Dreamworks) Nov 17th The previous Trolls film was surprisingly good fun. But Oscar didn't bite and they haven't shown much love for sequels in this category (Toy Story and How To Train Your Dragon franchises being the reliable exceptions)
INTERNATIONAL TITLES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN PLAY DEPENDING ON A TON OF VARIABLES (US DISTRIBUTION, PRODUCTION TIMING, SUBMISSION INTEREST, ETC...)
- Black Clover: Sword of the Wizard King (Japan) - manga adaptation about a fantasy world (Netflix, June 16th)
- Blue Giant (Japan) - manga adaptation about a high schooler who becomes a jazz musician
- Deep Sea (China) - a young woman in an underwater fantasy
- DragonKeeper (China/Spain) - fantasy CG. Bill Nighy is in the English language voice cast
- Ernest & Celestine 2: A Trip to Gibberitia (France) - The bear and mouse pair from the 2013 Oscar nominated charmer return, this time to visit Ernest' home country and repair his violin.
- Mummies (Spain)
- Suzume (Japan)
POSSIBLY AMAZING TITLES IN PRODUCTION BUT WHEN WILL THEY SURFACE?
- Escape from Hat (Netflix) - CG story about a bunny escaping a magician's hat. From Mark Osborne (Kung Fu Panda)
- Nimona (Netflix) - This adaptation of the great webcomic about a shape-shifting young woman has been in various forms of production and development and turnaround for so long. Supposedly it will begin screening this summer but there's no actual release date yet.
- Wildwood (Laika) - A stop motion fantasy adaptation about a young girl who sets off to rescue her kidnapped brother. Stop motion films take a long time in production and though this began filming in 2022 we don't have a clear sense yet of when it will arrive. Carey Mulligan and Jacob Tremblay provide the voices of the siblings. Nevertheless we'll be rooting for it to a) be excellent and b) impress Oscar voters and audiences because Laika is far overdue to win gold.
Reader Comments (6)
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar should be one of the Wild cards.
Nimona is premiering at Annecy in June, so it's definitely coming this year.
Demon Slayer: To The Swordsmith Village is almost certainly ineligible, given it's just a compilation of two old episodes of the TV show and one new episode. In its place, I would consider Suzume, the new Makoto Shinkai film which has gotten great reviews, made nearly $10 million at the US box office and is a blockbuster worldwide.
Lenard -- it's apparently live-action.
Reuben - thanks for the info.
Animation omits extra words and images. It enables you to express ideas clearly and rapidly.
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I worry for the CHICKEN RUN sequel.
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