Emmy Predictions: Limited/Anthology Series & TV Movies

By Abe Friedtanzer

Lizzy Caplan and Jesse Eisenberg in Fleishman Is In Trouble

Maybe it’s just been a busy year, but I feel like I’m very out of the loop with this whole slate. As is my practice  I watched the first episode of just about everything, but with a few notable exceptions, like Fleishman Is In Trouble, The Patient, Ms. Marvel, and Obi-Wan Kenobi, I didn’t actually make it to the end of many of this past seasons contenders for limited series. In most cases, it wasn’t lack of interest but rather time. That’s going to make for an unusually hectic summer when I’m inevitably going to try to finish up all of the eventual nominees. Fortunately, I have been paying attention to the heavy hitters in awards buzz. That doesn't help narrow down the contenders much, though, since the field feels wide open.  

The surest things across the board in the limited categories are Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story and Black Bird, both of which performed well at the end of last year for those awards groups that aren't quite on Emmy's timetable...

I’m less certain about the fate of Fleishman Is In Trouble, The Patient, and George and Tammy, though the latter has been cited for a few acting prizes.  Beef and Daisy Jones and the Six seem to be the hottest late-season additions, and I think A Small Light might also do well.

Evan Rachel Wood as Madonna in Weird: The Al Yankovic Story

The other big question, as usual, is whether TV movies can make a mark at all. Ben Foster and director Barry Levinson getting snubbed for The Survivor last year gives no faith whatsoever, that TV movies are on equal footing in this category. But the three likeliest contenders to break into the acting races this year are probably Weird: The Al Yankovic Story, Prey, and Reality. Let’s dive in…

Ashley Brooke and Bel Powley in A Small Light 

BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

Beef

Black Bird

Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Daisy Jones and the Six

A Small Light

Other possibilities: As noted above, Fleishman Is In Trouble, The Patient, and George and Tammy are all sure to garner at least some votes, as are This Is Going to Hurt and The English. And what about Dead Ringers, Extrapolations, Love and Death, Mrs. Davis, and Welcome to Chippendales?  From the Marvel and Star Wars universes, only WandaVision and The Mandalorian have really succeeded in the past, and while I’d love to see Ms. Marvel honored, I’m not optimistic, and I’m really not sure what to expect from Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Ben Whishaw in This Is Going to Hurt 

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Steve Carell (The Patient)

Taron Egerton (Black Bird)

Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Daniel Radcliffe (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)

Ben Whishaw (This Is Going to Hurt)

Steven Yeun (Beef)

Other possibilities: In trying to narrow this down to six nominees, I had to drop Jesse Eisenberg (Fleishman Is In Trouble) and Michael Shannon (George and Tammy), and there also wasn’t room for Sam Claflin (Daisy Jones and the Six). There are also a handful of very Emmy-friendly contenders, like Bryan Cranston (Jerry and Marge Go Large), Giancarlo Esposito (Kaleidoscope), Ewan McGregor (Obi-Wan Kenobi), Edgar Ramírez (Florida Man), and Woody Harrelson (White House Plumbers) to consider. Though stage productions haven’t tended to be embraced aside from Hamilton, it’s worth noting the eligibility of Tony nominee Billy Crystal (Mr. Saturday Night) for the filmed version of the Broadway production that was a remake of his own 1992 film.

Rachel Weisz x2 in Dead Ringers 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)

Riley Keough (Daisy Jones and the Six)

Elizabeth Olsen (Love and Death)

Bel Powley (A Small Light)

Rachel Weisz (Dead Ringers)

Ali Wong (Beef)

Other possibilities: This is where TV movie stars could come into play, with Amber Midthunder (Prey) having received strong notices and Sydney Sweeney (Reality) a double nominee from last year. I’m rooting for Kaitlyn Dever (Rosaline) and Mia Isaac (Don’t Make Me Go) but I don’t think either has a real shot, sadly. There are Emmy favorites in play like Kathryn Hahn (Tiny Beautiful Things), Betty Gilpin (Mrs. Davis), and Jennifer Garner (The Last Thing He Told Me). Lizzy Caplan (Fleishman Is In Trouble) and Dominique Fishback (Swarm) both stand a good chance of being nominated too, and watch out also for Emily Blunt (The English) or Alicia Vikander (Irma Vep). Iman Vellani (Ms. Marvel) would be a great choice – is that too hopeful?

Domhnall Gleeson in The Patient 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Murray Bartlett (Welcome to Chippendales)

Hayden Christensen (Obi-Wan Kenobi)

Domhnall Gleeson (The Patient)

Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)

Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Ray Liotta (Black Bird)

Liev Schreiber (A Small Light)

Other possibilities: I’m not sure how confident I should be in that Christensen prediction, but Bartlett does feel likely given last year’s Emmy win for The White Lotus and his presumed nomination for The Last of Us this year. There are a number of past Emmy nominees doing less prominent work who could pop up here, like Nikolaj Coster-Waldau (The Last Thing He Told Me), Daveed Diggs (Extrapolations), Walton Goggins (George and Tammy), Kit Harington (Extrapolations), and Steve Zahn (George and Tammy). Joseph Lee (Beef), Sebastian Chacon (Daisy Jones and the Six), and Timothy Olyphant (Daisy Jones and the Six) could benefit from being in buzzworthy projects, and I’m curious whether Jesse Plemons (Love and Death), Tom Pelphrey (Love and Death), or Justin Theroux (White House Plumbers) can succeed where others who portrayed the same people last season couldn’t (that would be Pablo Schreiber, Raúl Esparza, and Shea Whigham). Watch out also for Ciarán Hinds (The English), Quentin Plair (Tiny Beautiful Things), and David Paymer (Mr. Saturday Night), who earned an Oscar nomination for the same role in the film three decades ago. It doesn’t feel likely, but could Bowen Yang (Fire Island) or Matt Rogers (Fire Island) make the cut here too?

Camila Morrone in Daisy Jones and the Six 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Maria Bello (Beef)

Olivia Colman (Great Expectations)

Claire Danes (Fleishman Is In Trouble)

Camila Morrone (Daisy Jones and the Six)

Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Lily Rabe (Love and Death)

Evan Rachel Wood (Weird: The Al Yankovic Story)

Other possibilities: There are two Emmy favorites eligible for two roles apiece in this category: Jennifer Coolidge (Shotgun Wedding, The Watcher) and Cherry Jones (Extrapolations, Five Days at Memorial). Other past nominees eligible include Mckenna Grace (A Friend of the Family), Lena Headey (White House Plumbers), Moses Ingram (Obi-Wan Kenobi), Michael Learned (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), Anna Paquin (A Friend of the Family), Meryl Streep (Extrapolations), Hannah Waddingham (Tom Jones), and Merritt Wever (Tiny Beautiful Things). Annaleigh Ashford (Welcome to Chippendales), Jennifer Ehle (Dead Ringers), and Penelope Ann Miller (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story) are also sure to pick up at least some votes.

Steven Yeun and Ali Wong in Beef 

BEST DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Figures of Light (Beef)

Pilot (Black Bird)

Bad Meat (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Silenced (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Track 10: Rock 'n' Roll Suicide (Daisy Jones and the Six)

Pilot (A Small Light)

BEST WRITING FOR A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

The Birds Don't Sing, They Screech In Pain (Beef)

Bad Meat (Dahmer - Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

Track 5: Fire (Daisy Jones and the Six)

Me-Time (Fleishman Is In Trouble)

Pilot (A Small Light)

This Is Going to Hurt

Category notes: Most limited series submitted multiple episodes for consideration in directing but just one or two for writing, and some shows compete overall in each of the races. It’s very possible that Beef, Black Bird, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, and Daisy Jones and the Six could dominate both these categories, but I’ve chosen to be a bit more creative in my predictions. I don’t feel confident at all in these choices!

Sean Teale and Kaitlyn Dever in Rosaline 

BEST TV MOVIE

Dolly Parton's Magic Mountain Christmas

Fire Island

Prey

Reno 911!: It’s a Wonderful Heist

Weird: The Al Yankovic Story

Other possibilities: It’s always sad to me to look at this category when there are some really great options and know that they’re just not going to make the cut. Don’t Make Me Go and Rosaline are my favorites, and Boston Strangler and Not Okay would also be worthwhile picks. I’ve heard great things about Rye Lane. I’m banking on Dolly Parton and Reno 911! to have their latest installments nominated given their past success in this race. Reality is probably next likeliest, and remakes and sequels like A Christmas Story Christmas, Father of the Bride, Hellraiser, Hocus Pocus 2, and White Men Can’t Jump might also appeal.

What are your thoughts on these races?

Comments

[thevoid99]

ERW as Madonna was fucking great. She nailed it better than I thought it would be and could definitely pull it off. Plus, it was fucking hilarious. ERW for that Emmy.

[Paranoid Android]

Had no idea Camila Morrone was on people's radar for Daisy Jones, but agree she was great among the peripheral characters.

That actor category is too stacked for Whishaw to make it in, methinks, when Sam Claflin and Michael Shannon have more high-profile projects and/or been noticed by previous awards bodies.

[Joe G.]

I'd be a bit surprised if Fleishman Is In Trouble misses the top category. It seemed to do well with critics and I think it has an emmy friendly cast. I also think the recent nomination from TCA could help its case as the critics pic. '

I also think Sydney Sweeney will make the cut. Sure, TV movies, even HBO ones, are now an after thought. But hers came out at the right time and she seems to be a rising TV star. I also think Dominique Fishback will make it in as well. She's also a rising star, and her performance in Swarm shows nice variation from her celebrated supporting turn in Judas. I see her as being ahead of Keough and Bel Powley. Emily Blunt is in too. I think Weisz was excellent in Dead Ringers and she did a lot of press, but I'm not certain it ever caught on.

There's no way Hayden Christensen gets in for his Obi-Wan. I'd put Ewan ahead of him, and I don't think Ewan has a chance.

I'd love to see an Emmy return for Michael Learned, who still holds the record, though tied, for most wins in the Lead Actress Drama category.

I think Joel Kim Booster will get a writing nomination for Fire Island.

[Glenn Dunks]

I'd be surprised if George & Tammy missed. Right? That seems strong, right?

Anyway, REALITY is going to be one of my top films of the year (TV or otherwise). It and PREY deserve a space here based on their rules, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they don't.

[Finbar McBride]

I think Beef is the best of the potential limited series nominees. However, this article is prompting a binge watch of A Small Light this weekend.

I am surprised at the lack of momentum for Meryl Streep (Extrapolations) in a dual role as a dying grandmother and the voice of the last living whale on Earth. I thought she was terrific.

[charlea]

There are two things I know about the limited categories:

1) Claire Danes in Fleishman is in Trouble gave the best performance of the year in any category. This should be the lock of the year. But I worry about Fleishman in general. What an amazing performance and show.

2) Domhnall Gleason…is the lead. Literally the titular character. This is even worse than calling The Bear a comedy (or is it?). Gross to deprive actual supporting character actors of a brief moment of glory.

[jules]

Dead Ringers was the best thing I watched on tv year, barring the final season of Succession. It's such a shame it received so little attention. If only it were an HBO show, people would have watched it.

[Pam]

Re Emmy eligibility, I guess if an American production company "co-funds" a show, then it's eligible, right? I'm thinking about This is Going to Hurt vs something like The Responder or Happy Valley, which also appeared on AMC+.

The limited series shows were all very good this year. i loved Beef more than I thought I would.