First Round Oscar Predictions Nearly Complete!
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 9:09PM 
by Nathaniel R
Dear reader, I had planned a big article on each Oscar category as we completed this first round. Scratch that. It's best to finally get all the charts up and then dive further week by week, so we have somewhere to start from. Over at the Prediction Index you'll see that every category we guess well ahead of time is up now with more "tier 2" and "other possibilities" business on the individual category charts. Well all charts but International Feature (which we're working on) and both Actress charts. We can't throw the latter up without detailing it; It's not in our natures to give actresses short shrift!
So investigate the early predictions at your leisure. Well, don't wait too long. Things will change very soon. Calendar shifts are normal this time of year but it's likely to be even more volatile this season given the WGA/SAG strike and AMTMP's refusal to pay them anything like what they used to get paid for their work before streaming changed the entertainment landscape. Supporting Actress Chart tomorrow!
Oscars (23), Punditry
Reader Comments (7)
My predictions
Blunt Oppenheimer
Foster Nyad
Randolph Holdovers
Henson The Color Purple
Pike Saltburn
Supporting Actress guesses:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Hong Chau, Showing Up
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune2
Blunt, Oppenheimer
Brooks, The Color Purple
Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Moore, May December
Randolph, The Holdovers
I know a lot of predictors are really high on The Color Purple, but I just have a gut feeling that we're looking at a Phantom of the Opera, Rent, etc. Really strong source material and Tonys pedigree but a film version that falls flat. Could get as far as a Sweeney Todd or Into the Woods or Nine (scores some key nominations but still way underperforms), but that trailer just left me kind of cold...
I agree with Alex,it will probably be a hit and garner a few nominations probably previous nominee Henson as Shug and possibly Fantasia but Picture Director most likely no.
I have a hunch Bening is getting in Best Actress and will bring Foster along with her.
You don't think any animated films are in play for Original Score this year? Last year's shocking Pinocchio snubs aside, the music branch is usually more animation-friendly than most of the Academy and there's a wealth of contenders this year. I fully expect Across the Spider-Verse is gonna benefit from being an early fave (as opposed to Into the Spider-Verse being a last-minute surprise and still seen as less "important" than Black Panther that same year) and think Daniel Pemberton's score is definitely getting in if the movie's getting in anywhere else outside of Animated Feature. It's genuinely weird that Joe Hisaishi has never been nominated before and I'm sure there will be a big campaign for The Boy and the Heron as a career nom. Hell, even the negative reviews for Elemental really dug Thomas Newman's score and he's a 15-time nominee so can't count that out either.
Alex, I've had the same feeling regarding The Color Purple. I know it's not a remake of the 1985 film, but comparisons will be inevitable, and since the '85 film is pretty much a masterpiece, it's going to be difficult for the new version to live up to.