Final Oscar Predictions!
Thursday, March 7, 2024 at 8:55PM by Nathaniel R
It's that time again. The Oscars are Sunday night so it's time to make those final calls. Oppenheimer is poised to win big but HOW big exactly? Clean sweeps have gone out of fashion in the past 25 years. The only "clean sweep" this century -- aka a movie nominated for a lot of Oscars that won ALL of them on Hollywood's High Holy night -- was 2003's The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Even more interesting than Hollywood's turn away from sweeps is that it's become common the Best Picture winner to NOT win the most Oscars. We like it when they spread the wealth but the overperformance last year of Everything Everywhere All At Once suggests that Hollywood may be entering sweep-mindset again.
We expect that Chris Nolan's atomic biopic Oppenheimer will have the biggest Oscar haul since Return of the King on Sunday though it won't break any records...
As a refresher of which film won the most Oscars this century (thus far) it goes like so:
red = did not win Best Picture despite winning the most statues
2000 Gladiator 5
2001 A Beautiful Mind / Lord of the Rings 4
2002 Chicago 6
2003 Return of the King 11 (CLEAN SWEEP)
2004 The Aviator 5
2005 Crash / Brokeback Mountain / King Kong / Memoirs of a Geisha 3
2006 The Departed 4
2007 No Country for Old Men 4
2008 Slumdog Millionaire 8 (*ALMOST* A CLEAN SWEEP)
2009 The Hurt Locker 6
2010 The King's Speech / Inception 4
2011 The Artist / Hugo 5
2012 Life of Pi 4
2013 Gravity 7
2014 Birdman / Grand Budapest Hotel 4
2015 Mad Max Fury Road 6
2016 La La Land 6
2017 The Shape of Water 4
2018 Bohemian Rhapsody 4
2019 Parasite 4
2020 Nomadland 3
2021 Dune 6
2022 Everything Everywhere All At Once 7
A clean sweep for Oppenheimer ISN'T possible -- there isn't a bigger lock Sunday than Da'Vine Joy Randolph in Best Supporting Actress -- but we think it will win very big. From its 13 nominations it feels like the surest of things in 5 categories (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Score), very likely in 3 more (Actor, Editing, Sound) competitive if not quite "likely" in 2 more (Adapted Screenplay, Production Design) unlikely in 2 categories (Makeup and Costume Design), and an impossibility in just 1 (Supporting Actress). In short, it will win betwen 8 and 12 Oscars. So we're going to predict... 9. And it feels like such a potential sweeper that might be conservative!
In the interest of how quickly the time is passing (the Oscars are almost upon us) here are the predictions with only the true toss-ups discussed at length...
Picture Oppenheimer
Director Chris Nolan, Oppenheimer
Actress Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Up until SAG night I thought Emma Stone had this one for her vocally inventive, physically creative, emotionally exciting work in Yorgos Lanthimos trippy Frankenstein subverion Poor Things. And frankly I'm stunned she hasn't been a sweeper in the powerhouse vein of, say, Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. She could still prevail but I think it's a 40/60 fight at this point. In the end given Emma's previous Oscar win (albeit for a lesser performance) and the genre-flavor of the film for the genre-averse Academy, we think she's too vulnerable and Lily Gladstone will take this. Lily's film is just as well-nominated (and this category is her film's best shot at a win), people also love her performance, and voters love a good narrative. She was on the strike lines (as more famous actors should have been!) and she's the first indigenous American actor nominated (the others have been from other countries).
Actor Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Supporting Actress Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Supporting Actor Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay Anatomy of a Fall
When Anatomy took the Globe we thought it was competitive but nothing like a lock in this category. It's up against two well loved fellow Best Picture nominees Past Lives and The Holdovers. Still, Anatomy has overperformed in a big way all season so we think it's now significantly out front in this category.
Adapted Screenplay American Fiction
We were tempted to predict Oppenheimer here, given that it feels 'sweepy' but then we remembered that American Fiction actually won this prize at BAFTA even though BAFTA barely acknowledged the film otherwise. So American Fiction it is. And it IS about a writer so...
Cinematography Oppenheimer
Production Design Poor Things
Most pundits are suggesting that Barbie will walk away with just one Oscar "Best Original Song" and while that sounds right we think it MIGHT surprise and take this. But we're not quite predicting it. In our overanalyzing imagination, there are three possibilities. Most likely Poor Things wins two to three of the eye candy prizes. Second Most Likely: Barbie sneaks a second win here for its much-discussed and very memorable production design. Third Most Likely: In the eye candy battle of Barbie vs Poor Things, they split the vote and Oppenheimer surprises as part of its major haul.
Costume Design Poor Things
Barbie should totally win this but we assume it's running a close second and that Poor Things is more generally "respected" and thus the one to beat in the Eye Candy categories.
Film Editing Oppenheimer
We'd like to imagine that this is a tight race and Anatomy of a Fall sneaks in since it's the most deserving of the five films nominated, but we think Oppenheimer takes it with ease on its very big night.
Visual Effects Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
Visual Effects is so rarely the most unpredictable category that we have to pause to just appreciate this insanity. The Oppenheimer snub created this very unlikely death match before us now. This is the only category where ANY of the 5 nominees feels like a real possibility for the win. If you're a longtime Oscar watcher you know how rare "any of the five could win!" is. Consider: The Creator is strong in this field but the movie is so dull that people wouldn't exactly be celebrating if it won this Oscar; Godzilla Minus One will have passion votes and nobody would consider it unworthy if it triumphed but did enough of them watch it?; Guardians Vol 3 could win on genre and longterm popularity alone (it's constant visual effects from frame one) but people have really turned on Marvel this year considering the product glut and the declining quality; Napoleon could win as the most old school Oscar-bait contender if they're feeling serious but like The Creator a win wouldn't excite anyone; So in the end we've decided to predict a win that would make us cheer. Mission Impossible is enjoying the franchise's first ever Oscar night. It has the most memorable practical visual effect of the year (that train over the cliff scene). The fact that it managed a nomination is just so exciting after Oscar voters ignored the franchise for the past two decades. We'll also cheer if Godzilla manages the win.
Makeup and Hair Oppenheimer
CALCULATED WEIRD RISK. While the internet detests Maestro, Oscar voters clearly don't given its nomination tally. It could win here. So could the showy Frankenstein hijinx of Poor Things. To be honest if we were sane, we would predict Poor Things. But since sanity is not a problem, I'm going to overthink this and go out on a limb and say that this is where the sweep of Oppenheimer makes itself known. Like Gandhi winning Costume Design a million years ago. We just want bragging rights if it does happen! And also we really think it's winning 9 Oscars so we had to give it one of the categories it doesn't actually feel that competitive in.
Original Score Oppenheimer
Original Song "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie
Sound Oppenheimer
In our fantasy The Zone of Interest wins the most atypical ever Oscar here (so deserving!) but Oscar voters have always preferences Big Loud Major Sound over "Sound Design" so that fantasy will have to remain unrealized.
International Feature The Zone of Interest
We weep that Anatomy of a Fall couldn't have gone head to head with The Zone of Interest. Imagine what a battle that might have been!
Documentary 20 Days in Mariupol
Animated Feature The Boy and the Heron
Shorts Documentary The Last Repair Shop
Some people think ABCs of Book Banning could win but we think it might be too basic in its execution / form to excite enough voters.
Shorts Live Action The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
I am so sorry if this prediction jinxes it since the short is so fantastic and Wes Anderson needs an Oscar already.
Shorts Animated War is Over!
For the same reasons we predicted the nomination, we think it will win. Still if we could vote it'd be or either Ninety-Five Senses or Our Uniform.
Reader Comments (23)
I think you are correct on most of these but I think Barbie wins costumes and Stone wins Actress,I'm not on the Lily train,I thought she was fine but I can barely remember any part of her performance.
I won't be mad at Cillian winning, as he seems really lovely, but I was excited for a moment at the prospect of Paul Giamatti winning, as I loved him in The Holdovers. That would be a fun shocker, and earlier in the season, I thought he would win. But definitely thinking Oppie at this point.
I would love a huge shocker on Oscar night. Please, God. How fun would that be.
I'm not predicting it will happen, but one possibility is there is enough Oppenheimer fatigue that we get a version of the 2002 Oscars which seemed going in like a Chicago sweep, but most of the night featuring enough surprising losses (in that case mostly to the Pianist which took surprising wins in Director, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, while Kidman beat Zellweger in Actress) where by the end there was a little drama before Chicago won best picture overall (and had the most wins overall).
The 2023 version of that would be something like Poor Things winning Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup, Production, and Costume Design, while Giamatti wins Actor and the Zone of Interest takes Sound, but Oppenheimer still winning Supporting Actor, Editing, Score, and Cinematography, so going into Director & Picture it's 5-4 in favor of Poor Things (or 4-4 if Screenplay goes to Barbie or American Fiction). I still think Oppenheimer is a lock for the big prizes but this is just me hoping for some suspense!
You're missing KING KONG in 2005. And THE AVIATOR won five Oscars.
I’m worried this will be my most sad deflated balloon Oscar ceremony ever, and I’ve been watching them since the spring of 1992. I really do find Oppenheimer grotesquely overrated (Downey Jr is really the only award-worthy anything about that film) and Barbie the biggest disappointment of 2023. I tell you what: if Oppenheimer, with its patently shit old age make-up, beats Maestro to the post for that prize, I’m going to lose my mind.
@Mr Ripley79 — you’re right on the money with Gladstone. It’s a good but entirely unremarkable performance. I have a feeling this is going to be one of those Oscar years looked back on in a decade that has people asking: what were those voters thinking?
I'm with MrRipley79 and JasonCooper...Lily is solid, but not in the same ballpark as Emma and Sandra. Hoping for what would now be a "surprise" win for one of them, even though it's preposterous that either would be a surprise. Genius work from them both, and winners that will look amazing, perhaps among the best ever, 50 years from now.
Lily Gladstone all the way. 💗
Man, so many of those "won the most Oscars but didn't win Best Picture" really, really should've won Best Picture. A few of those years still make me mad and/or sad.
Anyways, do we all really think The Boy and the Heron has Best Animated Feature in the bag? I mean, I do too, but I think it's a closer contest than that. Yes, it's Miyazaki. And yes, would they really give it to a 2nd film of a trilogy (when they already gave the 1st film the gold)? But Across the Spider-Verse dominated at main precursor (the Annie Awards), it was more widely watched, and the animation really is kinda ground-breaking. Again, still think Heron wins, but the Spider is competitive. And for what it's worth, the majority of Gold Derby is predicting Spider-Verse.
Gee, I hope War is Over! doesn't take Best Animated Short. It would be an especially weak winner considering the artistry of the other nominees.
@Ryan T. - I have funny feeling cause The Boy and The Heron is in my top of the year. I want so bad a second Oscar for Miyazaki, but I would love to see Spider-verse guys win. Simply because Miyazaki doesn't care a s**t about these awards
I'm going with Lily too. As someone who saw Miss Daisy win, I have a hard time believing that an actress can win after shoving a couple of fruits into her vagina.
Also, will you please remove the Penélope Cruz thing? Its been there for two months and she's not even that good in that awfully lit movie.
Leave Cruz there as a form of protest! She's better than all 20 nominated performances!
Yeah, leave PeCruz there! We need a reminder of how good the supp. actress actegory could have been!
Cleavage, a few tears, shouting every line with a SNL accent. You're all so easy to convince.
I really love the Barbie costumes and they played such an important element in the story. But, I wonder if it will be hurt by the fact that so many of the pieces are pulled right out of the Barbie archive. Will voters feel as if Barbie was just copying whereas poor things was more of an action of inspiration and creation?
I still think Emma could upset. Lily is wonderful, but she's in such a small portion of her film and Emma has major heat.
I'm gonna predict Robot Dreams winning Animated Feature because I've been watch some praise and because is the only surprise I can see "possible"
Costume, production design and makeup are all going to be Poor Things most likely. For the latter I would LOVE Society of the Snow win as I find that one more deserving than Poor Things in this category.
Was hoping we would get a separate post for costume design as that is a fascinating lineup this year. While I think Poor Things is the likeliest winner based on the general warm reception, history indicates that the Academy goes with previous winners in this category instead of rewarding someone new. So Jacqueline Durran winning her 3rd is not that far fetched. In fact, the last 3 first time winners are Mark Bridges, Jacqueline Durran and Ruth E. Carter and all three of them has won again since their first!
That said Jacqueline West has already been the "most nominated with no wins who is still alive" since Dune so one can wonder if they are finally going to give it to her this year or wait for her 6th nomination, Dune Part Two as a foregone conclusion.
Janty Yates is a previous winner but hasn't had a nomination since then as she kind of became the Ridley Scott designer and his stuff never reached the Gladiator heights. Her nomination might be just due to the lack of competition and somehow Lindy Hemming being ignored almost everywhere...
If it's Cillian Murphy, Lily Gladstone, RDJ, and DJR for the four acting Oscars, it's going to be the dullest set of Oscar acting winners ever. And I LIKE subtlety and "star" turns.
Of these four, I think Cillian Murphy is the one I like the least though. He's perfectly adequate but doesn't really add much to a movie that is very good (but not great). I think he's inherently miscast. Don't hate me internet!
PS Shocking take - I probably like Emily Blunt more than RDJ. At least she was bringing more to the role than what was given her.
There are a whole host of reasons Gladstone will win, the least relevant of which is the actual performance.
That's a lot of blah-blah, whunk.
Can someone please explain how Ludwig Goransson is winning his second Oscar in five years for that utterly generic and migraine-inducing OPPENHEIMER score over the never-nominated, prolific, beloved, and dearly departed Robbie Robertson? Or perhaps Robertson is winning...?
@DaveIn Hollywood I couldn't agree with you more and I don't hate you for only thinking Oppenheimer is very good.
@PeggySue I couldn't agree with you less,why so sour lately.