Will "One Battle..." or "Sinners" Tie or Break Oscar Records?

by Nathaniel R

Can One Battle After Another defeat the Oscar Nomination Champs?

When France's Spanish-language trans musical Emilia Perez scored 13 nominations last January I felt an impending dread. The dread spoketh so... "If even this bizarre and divisive non-Hollywood film nearly broke the all time nomination record (14), then it's only a matter of time before it falls!" This is a terrifying development for those of us who cherish the spreading of wealth. If you love more than one or two movies a year it's downright heartbreaking. To date in Oscar's nearly century-long history, only three films have scored 14 nominations across available Oscar categories: All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997), and La La Land (2016). This season honoring the films of 2025 One Battle After Another and Sinners will try to join or surpass them. The first new category in ages (Casting) could help them match or break that record. But will they pull it off?

Since we've just updated every single Oscar chart with late December predictions, it seems like the ideal time to investigate. Let's do that after the jump...

Setting The Oscar Table
EXACTLY HOW MANY NODS CAN ANY ONE FILM SCORE?

The amount of Oscar categories has varied quite a lot over the Academy's 98 year history but for the bulk of our Oscar watching years it has vacillated between 22 and 24. We're currently back up to 24 with the new and long-awaited Best Casting category about to debut. That said, no film has ever / will ever be eligible for all categories since some are ultra-specific. Within today's 24, an English language live-action feature (i.e. the bulk of films voters watch) has a ceiling of 17 categories which are...

1. PICTURE
2. ACTRESS
3. ACTOR
4. SUPPORTING ACTRESS
5. SUPPORTING ACTOR
6. DIRECTOR
7. CASTING
8. SCREENPLAY (Original OR Adapted... but not both of course)
9. CINEMATOGRAPHY
10. COSTUME DESIGN
11. PRODUCTION DESIGN
12. FILM EDITING
13. VISUAL FX
14. MAKEUP AND HAIR
15. SCORE
16. SONG
17. SOUND 
    
    SIX categories are off limits to the most typical Oscar player (i.e. English language live-action features): Documentary, International Feature, Animated Feature, and all three short film categories  

Theoretically more than 14 nominations is possible -- especially since you can score more than one nomination per acting category and up to two in Original Song. Still, there are easy-to-spot reasons it hasn't (yet) happened. Broadly speaking films are rarely competitive or even eligible in all four acting races, and only tend to be competitive in visual categories if they are a period piece or genre picture of some kind. What's more, the bulk of films do not have an Original Song in their soundscape. By and large even the most popular and beloved films max out at around 15 or 16 categories before the winnowing begins (i.e. categories that have multiple voting rounds) and are bound to miss a couple nominations from lack of enthusiasm from that particular branch or showier also buzzy options in particular categories. Even the three most nominated pictures of all time weren't eligible / popular everywhere. All About Eve had no lead male actor or original song. Titanic was eligible in all possible categories but was famously rejected in both Original Screenplay and Best Actor and had no conceivable shot at Supporting Actor (sorry Zane & Garber). La La Land had almost nothing in the way of substantive supporting roles (sorry DeWitt, Simmons, and Legend) and was just never going to be considered in Visual Effects or Makeup even though 99% of modern live-action films require those departments.

The Case for and Against 
SINNERS

SINNERS

If you were transported back in time even 15-20 years, the thought of a vampire-musical-horror-period hybrid being one of the top two Oscar contenders would have required a fanciful leap of imagination. Oscar followers would have scoffed 'this isn't the Saturn Awards!' Thankfully awards voters have loosened up in the past decade plus. While Sinners won't impress every artistically conservative member of the Academy it should have no trouble at all trampling the record of the previously most Oscared vampire picture, 1992's Bram Stoker's Dracula, which received 4 nominations and 3 wins. 

Locked Up?: Picture, Score, Song ("I Lied To You"), Sound, Director, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, and Casting

The categories are listed in how strong I think the chances are in each category (for fun). Given the precursor attention and the buzz in these categories as well as the competitive set, missing any of these races would be a shock. So I see 8 nominations as the minimum for Sinners, even if it "underperforms".

Strong Shot But Could Miss: Costume Design, Production Design, Film Editing, Actor (Michael B Jordan), Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku)

If Sinners hit in all of these races, too, it would reach 13 nominations, one shy of the record. That's certainly possible.  While Michael B Jordan (as Smoke and Stack, the twin protagonists) and Wunmi Mosaku (as Smoke's estranged wife) have both done well in precursors, history is littered with acting contenders who biffed at the last minute despite looking like strong bets until that moment. It is just a fact that genre performances have a more difficult time landing in the final five. The Best Picture heat could well carry both of them through aided surely by Jordan's "overdue" status. But, at least at this writing, we're betting they are just barely on the outside looking in. Only one actor has ever been nominated for a vampire picture: Willem Dafoe in Shadow the Vampire, and that star turn had the benefit of an extra layer of mimicry (the acting branch's favourite party trick) since Dafoe was playing a real actor (Max Schreck) in the process of creating (or revealing?) his most famous character, the titular Nosferatu from the 1922 silent film.

So only 11 nods? Wait, we're not done yet.

Maybe: Makeup, Song ("Last Time I Seen the Sun"), Visual Effects

Sinners could also be honored in each of these categories which use a multi-ballot process since it made the final round.  I'm betting against Visual Effects, despite that odd finalist list (which makes its nomination more probable than it otherwise would have been.)  Nevertheless that branch rarely goes for "supporting" visual effects usually opting for films which rely very heavily on their vfx crew. Makeup is another matter altogether and genuinely unpredictable each and every year so who knows. Finally a second Song nomination feels possible but Song has the complication of being actually competitive this time, and Sinners has a better loved and better showcased song option than this one. From this group I'm predicting only Makeup.

Long Shot:  Supporting Actor x 2 (Delroy Lindo and Miles Caton)

I would consider either of these two a surprise were they to be nominated though neither would have seemed shocking as options earlier this year. Unfortunately the media and the precursors for 2025/2026 have made Best Supporting Actor a "Best Lead Actor, Part Two" competition with only one true blue supporting role still being discussed (Benicio Del Toro). That said, Lindo could surprise if the acting branch thinks about his long underrewarded career or if SAG embraces the picture in a big way, shifting the buzz at the last minute.  

Not Eligible: Actress

VERDICT / PREDICTION: 12 nominations (from 16 eligible categories)
That's a conservative guess, I know. Given Sinners double song possibility and double supporting actor longshot dreams and that it's a period piece with visual effects, you can definitely make a case that it will break the all time record. If its the first film to score 15 or 16 nominations so be it. But for now I'm sticking with a dozen nomination bet even though I think 13 is more likely... I just can't decide which of the categories I'm not predicting it in, it will land in. 

The Case for and Against
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER will win Oscars. But how many?

After 11 personal nominations across four categories (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay) since his incredible Boogie Nights twenty-eight years ago, it looks like it will finally be Paul Thomas Anderson's "year". His incendiary funny riveting unexpectedly action-packed One Battle After Another is an across the board success despite its degree of difficulty in execution. However the Oscar statues end up divvied out next March,  we'd be shocked if Anderson didn't nab at least one naked gold man for himself whether that's for producing, directing, or screenwriting. But our investigation is about nominations. How many can the film manage? 

Locked Up: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor), Film Editing, Casting,

Given the precursor attention paired with the buzz and history of these categories (well, minus "casting" on the history bit) these nominations are practically done deals. But how many more nods can be added to these six? Will we have our first 14 nomination film since La La Land? It's quite possible!

Strong Shot But Could Miss: Supporting Actor (Sean Penn AND Benicio Del Toro), Film Editing, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), and  Actress (Chase Infiniti)

It's been 49 years since Network (1976) scored five acting nominations which remains the all time record. Previous films to reach that incredible mark were All About Eve (1950), From Here to Eternity (1953), On the Waterfront (1954), Peyton Place (1957), Tom Jones (1963), Bonnie & Clyde (1967) and The Godfather Part II (1974). Interestingly only 3 of those 8 films did the trick by placing in all four acting categories while the others tended to double or even triple up in one or two of the supporting categories to make up for a missing lead category. One Battle has what feels like five strong contenders across all four acting races: Leo, Chase, Teyana, Sean, and Benicio. While the men all seem locked, they might not be.

Penn & Del Toro feel like no brainers but this category can still throw a weird curveball. I particularly wonder about Sean Penn. Remember when Jack Nicholson was the Academy's favourite everything until he suddenly wasn't and no nomination came for a showy villainous role in Best Picture winner The Departed? As for the leading man, it's more complicated. Leo is known as an Oscar regular but collective memory can sometimes be faulty. He's only got a 36% track record when it comes to landing a nomination for his Best Picture players. He's starred or co-starred in an incredible 11 Best Picture nominees over the past 28 years: Killers of the Flower Moon, Don't Look Up, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, The Revenant, The Wolf of Wall Street, Django Unchained, Inception, The Departed, The Aviator, Gangs of New York, and Titanic. But... true fact: Only 4 of his 6 acting nominations come from within those films. Most actors are boosted by being in a Best Picture nominee. Leo arguably has the reverse effect, boosting his films to prominence rather than the other way around. Unless SAG thinks very differently Best Actor seems to have narrowed down to six men quickly despite a few loveable long shots available to voters. 

Initially we thought Chase Infiniti was a long shot for Best Actress but now we're starting to think she's in sixth place. She could squeeze in since so many of her competitors seem to have lost steam while she has the coattails effect of starring in the frontrunner. We keep getting the feeling that something strange / last minute is going to happen there and for the moment we're going with Kate Hudson, rising, which we haven't been able to stop thinking about since a) Cláudio began to dread it and b) since we saw her very charming and very traditional Oscar bait star turn. So if Chase is out but the others are in (current predictions) that brings us up to 10 nods.

So far. 

Maybe: Cinematography, Score, Makeup,
 

One Battle, like Sinners, made the finals for these multi-round categories but we think it's shakier (punditry-wise, not qualitatively) in all three. Nevertheless we're guessing the final act's bravura rolling waves chase sequence is going to push it to the finish line in both Cinematography & Score. Makeup feels a little more far fetched even though the film does use some noticeable prosthetics toward the end. 

Is there anything else? Why yes there is...

Long Shot:  Production Design, Costume Design, Supporting Actress (Regina Hall)

Steamrolling Best Picture contenders sometimes do end up in unlikely places which is why Production Design and Costume Design could happen even though this isn't the kind of film that would usually end up in either of those races. For the record I think Colleen Atwood's work is the most inspired it's been in a long time but it's a contemporary film and non-flashy so that feels unlikely even if it would be a very cool discerning nomination given some of the memorable choices: that too tight Lockjaw shirt, Dierdre's still in hiding non-descript wardrobe, Bob's stupid bathrobe, Willa's incongruous tutu, etcetera. Anywhere we're betting it misses all three of these leaving it two short of the record with only 12? 

BUT WAIT... We're throwing caution to the wind and predicting that One Battle After Another does manage a second Oscar nomination in Supporting Actress and thus ties for the all time acting nomination record (5 from a single movie). But it's not Regina Hall we're predicting. Instead we're guessing a shady surprise maneuver like the acting branch pulled with LaKeith Stanfield in Judas as the Black Messiah and a demotion from Chase's lead campaign to supporting when the final votes are in.

No Longer Eligible But Was, Once, Theoretically: Visual Effects 

Not Eligible: Song

VERDICT / PREDICTION: 13 nominations (from 15 remaining eligible categories)

We hope that was fun for those of you who love punditry. The nomination tallies are bound to be interesting since both films are certainly threatening to break the record. 

Speaking of which, as a refresher, here is a trivia list on the SO MANY / TOO MANY Oscar Nominations front.

They had great nomination mornings
ALL FILMS THAT SCORED DOUBLE DIGIT NOMS

* indicates they lost best picture
† they won more statues than that year's best picture winner

14 nominations each 

ALL ABOUT EVE (1950) - won 6
TITANIC (1997) - won 11... the all time record in another different three-way tie
LA LA LAND* (2016) - won 6

One interesting note about that Holy Trinity, is that all of them had a major loss: All About Eve's Bette Davis didn't win her third Best Actress Oscar despite a mammoth performance; Titanic didn't win any acting Oscars; and La La Land lost the big kahuna in a weird misread envelope fiasco. 

13 nominations each

GONE WITH THE WIND (1939) - won 8
FROM HERE TO ETERNITY (1953) - won 8
MARY POPPINS* (1964) - won 5
WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINA WOOLF* (1966) - won 5
FORREST GUMP (1994) - won 6
SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE (1998) - won 7
LOTR: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING* (2001) - won 4
CHICAGO (2002) - won 6
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON* (2008) - won 3
THE SHAPE OF WATER (2017) - won 4
OPPENHEIMER (2023) - won 8
EMILIA PEREZ* (2024) - won 2... the least of any of the top 15 nomination-gobblers

Oppenheimer & Emilia Perez are the only films from the 2020s thus far to score double-digit nominations and both reached 13 so perhaps we've underestimated both One Battle and Sinners...

12 nominations each

MRS MINIVER (1942) -won 6
THE SONG OF BERNADETTE *† (1943) - won 4
JOHNNY BELINDA* (1948) - won 1
ON THE WATERFRONT (1954) - won 8
BEN-HUR (1959) - won 11
MY FAIR LADY (1964) - Won 8
BECKET* (1964) - won 1
REDS* (1981) - won 3
DANCES WITH WOLVES (1990) - won 7
SCHINDLER'S LIST (1993) - won 7
THE ENGLISH PATIENT (1996) - won 9
GLADIATOR (2000) - won 5
THE KING'S SPEECH (2010) - won 4
LINCOLN* (2012) - won 2
THE REVENANT* (2015) - won 3  

11 nominations each

MR SMITH GOES TO WASHINGTON* (1939) - won 1
REBECCA (1940) - won 2
SERGEANT YORK* (1941) - won 2
PRIDE OF THE YANKEES* (1942) - won 1
SUNSET BLVD* (1950) - won 3  
WEST SIDE STORY (1961) - won 10 
OLIVER! (1968) - won 5 pus an Honorary
CHINATOWN* (1974) - won 1
THE GODFATHER PART II (1974) -won 6
JULIA* (1977) - won 3
THE TURNING POINT* (1977) -won nothing... tied for worst Oscar night showing ever...
GANDHI (1982) - won 8
TERMS OF ENDEARMENT (1983) - won 5
AMADEUS (1984) - won 8
A PASSAGE TO INDIA* (1984) - won 2
THE COLOR PURPLE* (1985) - won nothing... tied for worst Oscar night showing ever...
OUT OF AFRICA (1985) - won 7
SAVING PRIVATE RYAN* (1998) - won 5
LOTR: THE RETURN OF THE KING (2003) - won all 11 "it's a clean sweep" 
THE AVIATOR*† (2004) - won 5
HUGO* (2011) - won 5
LIFE OF PI*† (2012) - won 4 

10 nominations each

THE LIFE OF EMILE ZOLA (1937) - won 3
HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY (1941) - won 5
GOING MY WAY (1944) - won 7
WILSON* (1944) - won 5
ROMAN HOLIDAY* (1953) - won 3
GIANT* (1956) - won 1
SAYONARA* (1957) - won 4
THE APARTMENT (1960) - won 5
LAWRENCE OF ARABIA (1962) - won 7
DOCTOR ZHIVAGO* (1965) - won 5
THE SOUND OF MUSIC (1965) - won 5
BONNIE & CLYDE* (1967) - won 2
GUESS WHO'S COMING TO DINNER* (1967) - won 2
ANNE OF A THOUSAND DAYS* (1969) - won 1
PATTON (1970) - won 7
AIRPORT* (1970) - won 1
CABARET*† (1972) - won 8
THE GODFATHER (1972)- won 3
THE STING (1973) - won 7
THE EXORCIST* (1973) - won 2
NETWORK*† (1976) - won 4
ROCKY (1976) - won 3
ON GOLDEN POND* (1981) - won 3
TOOTSIE* (1982) - won 1
BUGSY* (1991) - won 2
BRAVEHEART (1995) - won 5
CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON* (2000) - won 4
GANGS OF NEW YORK* (2002) - won nothing
MASTER AND COMMANDER: THE FAR SIDE OF THE WORLD* (2003) - won 2
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (2008) - won 8
TRUE GRIT* (2010) - won nothing
THE ARTIST (2011) -won 5
AMERICAN HUSTLE* (2013) - won nothing
GRAVITY*† (2013) - won 7
MAD MAX: FURY ROAD*† (2015) - won 6

Comments

[StephenM]

I've been dreading this ever since the new Best Casting and Best Stunt categories were announced. Where All About Eve enjoyed the "most nominations" distinction for decades, even shared with other films, now it seems films will routinely tie or break that lofty record. For example, Oppenheimer and Emilia Perez would've easily been nominated for Best Casting had that category existed then. (Of course, All About Eve benefitted from B&W design categories and Titanic benefitted from 2 sound categories. And surely GWTW would've set the record first, had Best Costume Design existed then).

I think this year, Sinners will get the nominations needed to make it to 14 at least, and maybe 15.