Team Experience Oscar Predictions: Final Scores
Monday, March 3, 2025 at 10:30PM 
Let us be glad. Let us be grateful. Let us rejoicify... that the awards season is over.
The Oscars have come and gone, and it's time to settle some scores. Nothing too dramatic, of course, just the matter of who, in the Team Experience, was best at predicting the 97th Academy Awards winners. Eric Blume took the honors for the nomination period, but the tables have turned. The king has fallen, and a new queen has risen – all hail, Lynn Lee! She correctly predicted 18 out of 23 categories, accounting for a roughly 78% success rate. On the other hand, I did the worst of the lot, with only ten correct predictions, or a 43% success rate. It's pretty dire, but that's what you get when you go "no guts, no glory" on some of these…
Please go HERE to check the complete predictions. Based on those results, this is the punditry ranking:
1) Lynn Lee – 18/23 – 78%
2-3) Abe Friedtanzer & Ben Miller – 17/23 – 74%
4) Eurocheese – 17/23 - 74%
5) Baby Clyde – 16/3 – 70%
6) Eric Blume – 15/23 – 65%
7) Nathaniel Rogers – 15/23 – 65%
8) Cláudio Alves – 10/23 – 43%
You may ask yourself why Eurocheese is below Abe and Ben, or Nathaniel is ranked lower than Ben. To fix some of those ties – not all of them, sadly enough – I used their alternative/runner-up picks. Abe and Ben had four alternative choices that ended up winning, while Eurocheese had only three. Eric had five, but Nathaniel scored four.
However, Eurocheese deserves special applause for being the only pundit to accurately divine Madison's win. Everyone else thought Moore had this. Then again, he was the only person who got Best Actor wrong because he predicted Chalamet over Brody. Other examples of just one writer getting it wrong fall on me. I was the only one who didn't predict Wicked for Best Production Design and No Other Land for Best Documentary Feature Film. Regarding the latter, I'm quite happy to be proven wrong.
The entire team failed to predict three categories – Animated Feature, Animated Short, and Live-Action Short. With the first of those, everyone had Flow as their alternative. For the short cartoons, only Abe picked In The Shadow of the Cypress as one of the top two possibilities. No such luck in the Live-Action Shorts race. The only mention I'm Not a Robot got was as some writers' personal picks.
Which brings us to another interesting piece of data. Since this year, the writers were asked to name their favorites per category, and we know whose taste most aligns with the Academy's voting body. Abe Friedtanzer is our most Oscar-y contributor and had good reason to be happy on Oscar night, as 16 of his picks won gold. In that spectrum of satisfaction, here's how the writers rank:
1) Abe Friedtanzer – 16/23 – 70%
2) Eurocheese – 13/21 – 62%
3) Baby Clyde – 12/19 – 63%
4) Eric Blume – 11/22 – 50%
5) Nathaniel Rogers – 10/20 – 50%
6) Ben Miller – 9/23 – 39%
7) Lynn Lee – 6/18 – 33%
8) Cláudio Alves – 5/23 – 22%
Those percentage discrepancies stem from the fact some writers didn't select a personal pick for a few categories. Some because they hadn't watched the nominees, while others may have done it in protest of a shoddy lineup. Baby Clyde probably wants the Oscars music branch to get their shit together. Honestly, who doesn't?
That's a wrap on the Team Experience Predictions for the 2024 Oscar season. See you next year!
Reader Comments (8)
By Oscar night, I was doing much better. Scored 20/23 in two Oscar pools and won them both (only missing Editing and two of the shorts). Chalamet was wishful thinking. The speech would have been much shorter, haha.
I feel bad for Moore but happy Anora did so well. BAFTA sure does predict the lead acting categories well these days!
Eurocheese -- Tell that to Austin Butler.
I got a 78.26% accuracy on GoldDerby which means I'm running things here now!
WOW! I got 16 out od 23 which was better than many "experts".
I completely blew the shorts categories yet again. Sheesh these 3 categories are impossible to predict.
And the only other 4 categories I got wrong were the big ones. Picture, Director, Actress...
Oh well I enjoyed the telecast and now have to find a cinema which is screening all the oscar winners.
Sadly, I live in the suburbs, and they are only playing bollywood, , action and children's films
So, I say to Sean Baker - I would love to see independent films on the big screen - but here in Australia those films are limited to small arthouse cinemas over 2 hours away from where I live!
Absolutely! Let's break down the Oscar prediction data you've provided:
Overall Prediction Accuracy:
Lynn Lee:
Correct Predictions: 18 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 78%
Rank: 1st
Abe Friedtanzer & Ben Miller:
Correct Predictions: 17 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 74%
Rank: Tied for 2nd-3rd
Eurocheese:
Correct Predictions: 17 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 74%
Rank: 4th
Baby Clyde:
Correct Predictions: 16 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 70%
Rank: 5th
Eric Blume & Nathaniel Rogers:
Correct Predictions: 15 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 65%
Rank: Tied for 6th-7th
Cláudio Alves:
Correct Predictions: 10 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 43%
Rank: 8th
Tie-Breaker Information:
Abe Friedtanzer & Ben Miller: 4 alternative picks won.
Eurocheese: 3 alternative picks won.
Eric Blume: 5 alternative picks won.
Nathaniel Rogers: 4 alternative picks won.
Notable Prediction Deviations:
Eurocheese:
Only pundit to correctly predict Madison's win.
Only pundit to predict Chalamet for Best Actor.
Cláudio Alves:
Only pundit to not predict Wicked for Best Production Design.
Only pundit to not predict No Other Land for Best Documentary Feature Film.
All Pundits:
Failed to predict the winners for Animated Feature, Animated Short, and Live-Action Short.
[url=https://www-readworks.com]ReadWorks[/url]
Absolutely! Let's break down the Oscar prediction data you've provided:
Overall Prediction Accuracy:
Lynn Lee:
Correct Predictions: 18 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 78%
Rank: 1st
Abe Friedtanzer & Ben Miller:
Correct Predictions: 17 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 74%
Rank: Tied for 2nd-3rd
Eurocheese:
Correct Predictions: 17 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 74%
Rank: 4th
Baby Clyde:
Correct Predictions: 16 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 70%
Rank: 5th
Eric Blume & Nathaniel Rogers:
Correct Predictions: 15 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 65%
Rank: Tied for 6th-7th
Cláudio Alves:
Correct Predictions: 10 out of 23
Accuracy Rate: 43%
Rank: 8th
Tie-Breaker Information:
Abe Friedtanzer & Ben Miller: 4 alternative picks won.
Eurocheese: 3 alternative picks won.
Eric Blume: 5 alternative picks won.
Nathaniel Rogers: 4 alternative picks won.
Notable Prediction Deviations:
Eurocheese:
Only pundit to correctly predict Madison's win.
Only pundit to predict Chalamet for Best Actor.
Cláudio Alves:
Only pundit to not predict Wicked for Best Production Design.
Only pundit to not predict No Other Land for Best Documentary Feature Film.
All Pundits:
Failed to predict the winners for Animated Feature, Animated Short, and Live-Action Short.
ReadWorks
Congrats Lynn Lee! Predicting the Oscars is tougher than mastering any of those addictive io games online! Seriously, 78% is impressive. Maybe Cláudio needs to play more Agar.io to sharpen his strategic skills. The team should analyze those missed short film categories more closely next year.
The alternative picks being used as tiebreakers is an interesting method—it highlights how much thought goes into those second guesses. Special kudos to Eurocheese for the Madison pick, though they took a gamble with Best Actor. And the unanimous misfires on the Animated Feature, Animated Short, and Live Action Short categories just show how unpredictable those races can be. DGMEE